CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  

Chat: Jarrett Seidler

Chat Home

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday November 22, 2016 8:00 PM ET chat session with Jarrett Seidler.

Printer-
friendly

Jarrett is a member of our prospect team focusing on the Eastern League, a writer at BP Mets and co-host of For All You Kids Out There.

Jarrett Seidler: Howdy all. Lots of good questions and I expect to be going for awhile, so keep them coming. If you miss out, feel free to ask me on Twitter later @jaseidler

Lawrence (Queens): If Michael Conforto was never called up until this past September, where would we be seeing him on prospect lists this offseason?

Jarrett Seidler: My colleague and co-host Jeffrey Paternostro and I have pondered this on the podcast a few times, Jeffrey wrote a fake article on it for BP Mets, and I had to ponder it for the Mets U25, so there's a lot of thought into this one.

I think easily global top ten, and probably top five, because based on his MLB and limited Triple-A numbers he'd have really destroyed the PCL to a level we haven't seen a ton had he spent a full year there. Would he be that far off Andrew Benintendi? Would he even be ahead?

Kyle (Bronx): I thought you guys were going to do top 30 for the Mets on the BP Mets Site?

Jarrett Seidler: We are. I don't know if 21-30 is going to make it out this week because of the holiday, but the list already exists and write-ups are coming very soon.

Allen (Bingy): See a lot of Phillip Evans this year? Hit tool good enough to be an above average bench piece?

Jarrett Seidler: Not this year, but in the past. I still thought he had a shot before he started hitting again, so yeah.

Ernie (Philly): How long do we have to wait before we see JP at SS in Philly ?

Jarrett Seidler: Either April or June/July, depending on his spring training and what kind of changes are made to the service time rules in the new CBA.

Well, assuming there is a new CBA...

matzabal (CO): Is Ryan McMahon the Rockies long term answer at 1B that they have been seeking since Todd Helton retired?

Jarrett Seidler: The Ryan McMahon bandwagon came to an abrupt halt this past season. Too early to write-off, and Coors does help a lot if he gets there, but he might just be a guy instead of a Guy.

Lefty (NJ): If Tomas Nido were draft eligible, where do you suspect he would be taken?

Jarrett Seidler: So basically in the fantasy world he doesn't do much for two years in college except develop a good defensive reputation, then is a pop-up hit machine type guy in 2016. Probably late or supplemental 1st? We ranked him 12th in the Mets system, basically dead in between their first and second round picks, and right around where I suspect a healthy Kay would've been.

Reggie (AZ): What a fall for Gleyber Torres. Where does he rank among SS prospects?

Jarrett Seidler: Not quite 101 time yet, but off the top of my head, probably fourth or fifth. In no real order, there's the Crawford, Rosario, Swanson trio out of the NL East likely still ahead of him, and they all should stay at short. Next tier, there's probably Torres and Brendan Rodgers? Am I missing anyone?

Tim (Iowa): Have you seen Nick Kingham? If so, what is his upside?

Jarrett Seidler: Saw him pre-TJS in Double-A once or twice. Liked him then, probably 3rd or 4th starter upside. Haven't seen him on his rehab and it's been a few years.

Sam (DC): Potential of Juan Soto?

Jarrett Seidler: Jeffrey just gave him a 60 OFP. I have no information to disagree with that, and it wouldn't surprise me if it was higher this time next year either. I expect to see a good bit of him in the Sally or Penn League this year.

Mike (NY): Think Juan Soto could become the best low minors hitter next year if he starts in full season ball?

Jarrett Seidler: Sure, because if someone like Eloy Jimenez or Brendan Rodgers is in contention for this they're not going to be in the low-minors for long. Soto probably won't make it out of A-ball no matter what he does.

Eric (Brooklyn): No love for Harol Gonzalez? Also, what a great name...Harol

Jarrett Seidler: I love Harol Gonzalez, but he's really tiny and blowing dudes short-season hitters away with advanced off-speeds and command. I think he's going to at least end up as like a good Double-A pitcher, but there's a long way from that to a good MLB pitcher.

John (CO): People seem to be down on Ryan McMahon after his struggles this year. From your looks do you believe there is still something there, or will his swing and miss be fatal to his prospect-dom?

Jarrett Seidler: So I feel like last offseason I was lower than the crowd on McMahon but now I might be a little higher. Reports on him have been really bad, honestly. It could just be a bad year.

Peter (NYC): Time to spit out some random Brooklyn Cyclones names on you, tell me what they all are. Gary Cornish, Jay Jabs, Joseph Zanghi, Nabil Crismatt, Jacob Zanon

Jarrett Seidler: Cornish I didn't see but ended up running down and got back reports saying he was basically an advanced college arm crushing short-season dudes without stuff. Jabs might not make it out of A-ball. Zanghi was marginally interesting. I really like Nabil Crismatt and he's the actual prospect on this list. Didn't see Zanon and in all of the conversations I've had with evaluators, scouts, and others that saw the Cyclones I don't think he ever came up.

Ryan (US): What is Andres Gimenez's ceiling?

Jarrett Seidler: He's so far away that it's functionally limitless, right? If we're just talking ceiling, he could end up being Dansby Swanson in three or four years - good defensive shortstop projected to hit for a strong average and medium power. Or he could totally not be. Ceilings are fun.

Bobby (Albany): Is Aaron Judge going to be Jon Singleton 2.0? I know it's likely way too early to tell but the contact issues scare the crap out of me.

Jarrett Seidler: I mentioned this exact thing on the podcast this week, but I'm uncomfortable giving Jon Singleton as a comp for anyone given his personal issues. There's probably a lot there that we don't know, and even with what we do, it has to have hurt his development.

I still believe in Judge.

Larzie (LA): Angels desperately need a 2B, and a cheap one would allow them to spend money elsewhere to give this team the help it needs. That being said, does a Gavin Cecchini for Alex Meyer trade make sense? With Neil Walker, TJ Rivera and Reyes, Cecchini seems expendable to the Mets while he would be the starting 2B for the Angels. And Meyer seems like the kind of pitcher the Mets could have success with.

Jarrett Seidler: I don't see the Mets doing this, and I don't think that's too homerish. Meyer's stock is *really* down right now, and Cecchini's basically level.

Sean99 (Chicago): What's your opinion of Fernando Romero?

Jarrett Seidler: I haven't seen him, but James Fisher really, really liked him.

Buddy (Concord, NH): What can you tell us about Rowdy Tellez and do you think will EE probably leaving Toronto does he have a clear path to 1B in 2018 with only Smoak in front of him ?

Jarrett Seidler: I like Rowdy, and he's exactly the kind of power dude that the Blue Jays have an affinity for and have done well with. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he's playing in Toronto in 2018.

Stipulation that first base-only profiles are tough etc. etc. etc.

AJ (Ottawa): What are your thoughts on Aneury Tavares. Any chance he gets taken in the Rule 5 draft and has a shot to stick? Do you think you'll get to see Brendan Rodgers in AA next season? Who are you most looking forward to seeing in the league?

Jarrett Seidler: I think I saw him approximately four or five times this year and I still had to just look it up to make sure I was thinking of the right short dude with the odd-looking swing. That probably says it all, honestly. I don't expect him to taken, but stranger things have happened.

I sure hope Rodgers makes Double-A, but I mean, my home park of Trenton alone rates to have Gleyber Torres, James Kaprelian, Jorge Mateo, and perhaps Albert Abreu. The EL is gonna be loaded next year.

Chris (NY): Do you rank Gleyber Torres 4th or 5th among SS because of ceiling, distance from Majors, or both? Is he far behind Crawford, Rosario, and Swanson?

Jarrett Seidler: I don't think his ceiling is much behind those guys, but they're all actualized more in some marginally to significantly greater way. Dansby Swanson is already a major leaguer, and Gleyber hasn't hit Double-A yet. That matters.

Mike (NY): Is there a chance Desmond Lindsay blows up into a top 25 prospect next year if he has a strong healthy year in the SAL?

Jarrett Seidler: Absolutely, although if he has a year that good it probably won't be entirely in the Sally. But his legs have to stay healthy for four straight months at some point.

Sid (DC): GIolito? Really, what is this kid? Is his velocity down? Just seemed not show that much promise even in the bigs on any of his outings. Was he a little overrated?

Jarrett Seidler: Velocity was both down and also inconsistent. Media reports cited mechanical changes in spring training, and it certainly didn't look right pretty much all season even after he was supposed to be back to the old mechanics.

Sean99 (Chicago): Francis Martes or Giolito at this point?

Jarrett Seidler: Still Giolito for me. The years before 2016 matter too. There's too much history saying Giolito is better than this to assume he can get it back together.

Larry (NY): How many Mets would be in your top 101? Amed in 5-10 range?

Jarrett Seidler: I'll defer on the former since we haven't really starting mapping everything out yet.

Amed was 15 at midseason, something like five players in front of him graduated, and the second half of his season was hitting over .340 in Double-A at age-20. I think he's got a pretty good shot at the top ten, heh.

Truganini (CO): Bradley Zimmer was listed by Chris Crawford as one of the 10 biggest prospect fallers in 2016. He essentially lamented his inability to hit lefties, and his increased strikeout rate. The Tribe isn't short on young outfielders. Do you still think Zimmer has a better shot as a major league regular than Naquin, Yandy Diaz, Mike Papi and Greg Allen or do any of those guys now excite you more?

Jarrett Seidler: Naquin has done it in the majors, and that means a lot for a guy who has always had the tools but was never putting it together at the same time in the minors. I might take Naquin, but that would be a tough call and require some thought.

Zimmer's still well ahead of the other three.

Larry (NY): Hey Jarrett, I really enjoy the podcasts with you and Jeff. I don't mean to be that baseball fan that throws out all these hypothetical trades because I know they can often be excessive and unrealistic. Though, with Andrew Mccutchen seemingly on the block coming off a down year, I can't help but wonder why the Mets wouldn't be jumping all over the opportunity to land a super star (I know he's coming off a down year). How crazy would it be for the Mets to have a 3 way trade with the pirates and a team who would want Juan Lagares. Mets would send Lagares to that team who'd send a prospect to the Pirates (prob a 10ish in the org guy). Mets would send Gsellman/Wheeler, Beccera and Cecchini to the Pirates, with McCutch to the Mets. Am I crazy, or does that make sense? Also, that would only add 10mm to payroll and wouldn't knock them out of Cespedes running.

Jarrett Seidler: Weirdly, we have two questions tonight that basically turn on Juan Lagares' trade value.

This just feels really light for McCutchen. I know he's off a down season and they might not be able to re-sign him, but from a baseball sense McCutchen just turned 30 and is all of a year off a run of four straight MVP top-fives. From a cultural sense, trading him hurts that Pittsburgh franchise a lot, and you're going to need a heck of a return to sell your fanbase. Lagares and especially Wheeler just aren't the kind of names in this offseason that are getting this package done.

Clark (Not in my league chat): I once told my fantasy league Kyle Blanks would win an MVP award. Who is the guy currently in the top 20 that the prospect community will have missed on?

Jarrett Seidler: I'm going to cheat and use the midseason list. Raul Mondesi is the guy on there I'm least confident is a good MLB player. He was 20th, incidentally. It was a good list.

John (CO): Since you focus on the Eastern League, Eric Wood has a decent season for Altoona this year and the Pirates have left him unprotected for the Rule 5. Is he someone you could see filling out the end of a bench for someone next year, or there not enough there to justify such a move?

Jarrett Seidler: There are a bunch of these Rule 5 questions about guys like Wood and Tavarez and Evans. Typically overperforming older guys who project as utility guys without substantial tools are not taken in Rule 5, maybe one or two a year. It's usually toolsier guys that you can hide for a year as a utility guy but have an ultimate higher upside.

Trying to guess which one gets the Brad Emaus shot will drive you insane, honestly.

Hank (Westchester): Is Robert Gsellman a better prospect than Jose de Leon? What about Koby Allard?

Jarrett Seidler: Gsellman vs. de Leon is a conversation I've had recently internally, actually, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being article fodder. I would put both a good chunk ahead of Allard due to health and level, though Allard does have comparable if not greater upside.

Dez (Nyc): Do you think the Mets are really pissed that Blake Rutherford was taken right before they intended to take him? Or has Dunn's success softened threat blow?

Jarrett Seidler: The industry rumor since a few days before the draft has been that the Mets were planning to take Rutherford. He's a better prospect right now, but not so much so that I think they're pissed. Wish I had better internal insight, but it isn't something I've really heard about since, well, right around draft time.

Also worth remembering that it's not a straight one-for-one here: Rutherford's price tag in relation to Dunn's costs them at least Colin Holderman and Matt Cleveland, and probably Cameron Planck too (although Kay's bonus slash makes that a hazier call). Those are some high upside arms.

Mike (NY): So what is Lindor's ceiling, do you think he has the potential to become an inner circle hof SS?

Jarrett Seidler: Dude is a no-doubt 80 glove shortstop and I believe in the offense. If he just duplicates what he's already done into his 30s, he's not that far off. But that's a lot of good health and lack of regression and so on.

Herman J (Brooklyn): Hey JS- I'm trying to get a gauge of how valuable the Mets potential trade chips are: Travis Darnaud has the same worth as a top ___ prospect. Juan lagares has the same worth as a top ____ prospect Seth lugo has the worth of a top ___ prospect

Jarrett Seidler: Given what Jason Castro just signed for, d'Arnaud would return a lot more than I thought a week ago. Maybe a back of the top ten guy in a good system?

Lagares has pretty close to a neutral value contract, so probably just a random flier type.

Lugo might get you a top 100 guy if you can sell someone on the health and a team buys heavily into spin rate metrics. There are teams that do.

DMC (NY): What's the timeline looking like for Dominic Smith? Do you think he'll be put out there as trade bait or really put the pressure on Duda at some point?

Jarrett Seidler: This seems to be the least trolly Dom Smith question available for me. Depending on what they do with Conforto and Bruce, Smith could effectively be the backup 1B chilling out at Las Vegas in 2017 in case of a Duda injury or underperformance. I do think the Mets probably look to him to start in 2018 at the latest.

Sean99 (Chicago): Reynaldo Lopez end up in the 'pen?

Jarrett Seidler: Yeah, I think he's a closer.

Liam (Bronx ): Jarret, Too lazy to email podcast. What do you consider when you look at hit tool. Is it pure bat to ball or are there mechanical considerations?

Jarrett Seidler: The hit tool is the single hardest thing to evaluate in a prospect. There's no marker to check yourself. For speed and velocity, you have actual hard facts that convert to something of meaning. For things like power, glove, arm, command, and secondary pitches, you have a pretty good idea of what it's supposed to look like. Evaluating a player's ability to hit, that's really an art form, one the professionals are a lot better at than any of the rest of us.

But yeah, bat-to-ball is important to me, quality of contact considering the quality of opposition is important to me, mechanics are important to me. At the end of the day, it's really what looks right to my eye, honestly, the old Potter Stewart "I know it when I see it" answer above all. And that makes it difficult, and even far better evaluators than I are going to miss here a lot.

I may be writing something on this topic pretty soon.

Roddy (San Diego): Zach Vincej was fantastic in the Arizona Fall League. Is this an aberration, or a sign of things to come?

Jarrett Seidler: Steve Givarz wrote him up as a pretty good defender with a questionable bat and I don't have better information than that. As a general rule I don't put a ton of stock in Fall League hitting performances because the physical offensive environment is very hitter-friendly and that's usually exacerbated by bad overall pitching quality.

Mike (NY): So What do you think the ceiling of Amed Rosario's ceiling is in your own eyes?

Jarrett Seidler: Role 7, perennial All-Star type. He has yet to show the type of power ceiling to become a regular MVP candidate type, but it's not totally crazy to think it's deep down there.

CyMature (Cooperstown Rest Home): Jarrett, Headed your way: Rafael Devers! Michael Kopech! Enjoy!!

Jarrett Seidler: I've seen both of these guys already to be honest. Kopech fascinates me and Portland usually plays a ton in Trenton so it's very exciting.

Sean99 (Chicago): Woodruff just a pop-up guy who will fade back into the background with his weak secondaries?

Jarrett Seidler: J.P. Breen is the master of all things Brewers and likes him, so I'll trust J.P. I trust pop-up pitchers who are backing it up with real velocity a heck of a lot more than pop-up hitters.

Dexter (NE): How is Steven Matz as a comp for Jason Groome?

Jarrett Seidler: Pretty good, although I expect they'll have wildly different developmental paths.

Tim (Stompers Central): Does Vlad Jr. have a chance to make a huge leap in 2017? If so, is it out of short-season ball?

Jarrett Seidler: Heck of a lot of buzz there. Appy to full-season isn't that unusual a jump for top prospects, suspect that'll depend on how he looks in spring.

Derek (Sugar Land, TX): Hey Jarrett thanks for the chat -- do you know anything about this Tejeda fella that plays short in Texas's systeM?

Jarrett Seidler: We've just started discussing the Rangers system internally and man alive there are some really strong Anderson Tejeda reports, both internally and externally. Leody Tavares off that team, as well.

Chris (NY): Any chance Dillon Tate or Billy McKinney can restore their previous luster? Tate showed improvement post-trade.

Jarrett Seidler: Tate was so bad when I saw him in the Sally that I have real questions over whether he can start, but the bullpen fallback is real. Maybe not worth a number 4 overall pick, and he's in a system with a lot of guys that could be very good relievers, but he's still a real prospect.

I didn't like McKinney's hit tool in Trenton this year, and I'm not sure there's enough else there to carry the profile.

Horacio (ATL): Is Lucas Duda a good comp for AJ Reed? Or, is it optimistic/pessimistic? On the topic of Duda, if he has a 2017 similar to his 2014-2015 seasons, do the Mets offer him a QO?

Jarrett Seidler: 2014-15 Duda is an optimistic outcome for any current 1B prospect, really. And he's a pretty easy QO if he's putting up a healthy peak Duda season, assuming the QO even exists.

Angela (Boston): Is Clint Frazier a boom or bust prospect?

Jarrett Seidler: I don't think he's boom or bust in the sense that even as-is he's still probably going to be something like a second-division starter and have a real career. But that depends on whether you consider that a bust; I don't.

Henry (NY): Handedness aside, do you feel Austin Jackson or Denard Span is a better comp for Desmond Lindsay? Or neither? Regardless, if you had to bet, how do you see his next 2ish years in the minors unfolding and how his prospect status will change (or not change).

Jarrett Seidler: I'm not convinced Lindsay's a centerfielder yet and I think he's got more power than Span, so I guess Jackson? I generally don't love comps for short-season guys that can go in a lot of different directions, to be honest.

If I had to bet on what Lindsay does over the next two years, I'll bet that he keeps having recurring leg injuries because he's had an awful lot of recurring leg injuries, and that he'll also continue to hit. Attrition and level advancement causes his stock to relatively rise.

Elias (New York City): How excited should Mets fans be for Amed Rosario. What would you say are his 50th, 75th and 90th percentile projections? Sorry if this question requires a lengthy response :x

Jarrett Seidler: Very. Let's go with above-average regular for 50th, a guy who makes more than a couple All-Star teams for 75th, and superstar for 90th.

Glenn (Riverbrook): Aaron Judge or Michael Conforto and why?

Jarrett Seidler: I think I got this last chat too. It's still Conforto because he's been way better at the same levels and isn't particularly outclassed in tools.

Tina (414): What is the cost for Jay Bruce? An org's 10-15 prospect? More?

Jarrett Seidler: One has to be careful answering these because for the Angels a 10-15 prospect is literally a waiver claim and for the Yankees it's a fringe 101 candidate.

To me Bruce has minimal trade value, but it's clear the market values him much more than I do. I think he'd return something like a back of the top ten guy in a good but not incredible system. Given the previous two sentences I also think the Mets should really trade him.

Ruby (NYC): Hey Jarrett--- big fan of the podcast. Can you rank Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Juan Lagares in terms of trade value? Also, can you give me an idea of what each could fetch in a trade, in Mets prospect terms (so I can better understand)? For example, maybe Jay Bruce gets you a Merandy Gonzalez type prospect, idk.

Jarrett Seidler: Granderson: maybe on the high end someone like Gavin Cecchini? I definitely think a Molina or Merandy kind of arm would be out there
Bruce: pretty much the same
Lagares: someone like Harol Gonzalez, and a lot of salary relief

Hank (NJ): Where would Andres Gimenez be taken in 2017 MLB draft if he were coming out of HS as a prep SS?

Jarrett Seidler: I feel comfortable right now saying top 15-20, but ask me again in June and the answer might be a lot higher. Excited to see him stateside this year.

Drew (NY): Which Mets prospect (not from among the top guys) do you find most intriguing and are most looking forward to tracking this upcoming year?

Jarrett Seidler: Marcos Molina. Really interested to see how he recovers a full year and a half off the TJS, and what role he's headed towards.

Enrique (New Jersey): How would you rank Rosario vis-a-vis the other best SS prospects in the game? Do you think he can potentially become an uber-star of the magnitude of the current crop of young mlb shortstops?

Jarrett Seidler: I think he's one of the top three remaining as a prospect, but no, I don't see him at the level of Corey Seager or Francisco Lindor or Manny Machado or anyone like that.

JT (cali): which SS prospect has the highest ceiling?

Jarrett Seidler: I think the answer is probably Brendan Rodgers if we're talking absolute ceiling, but he's also by far the least likely of the top five or so guys to actually make it.

Jeb (IC): What are your thoughts on Kevin Newman? Seems to have a very good hit tool.

Jarrett Seidler: I like him. I'm not sure whether there's star upside without more supporting tools. But he's got one of the highest floors of any of the top prospects who aren't really semi-established MLBers (like Gsellman, Benintendi, Reyes, Swanson, etc.) eligible because of our weird quirky rules.

Justin (Burgh): What are your thoughts on Austin Meadows? What is his upside? How good can he actually be?

Jarrett Seidler: Meadows, on the other hand, absolutely has a chance to be a star. His upside probably involves MVP awards. But again, that's upside.

LucasDad (Mpls): I am pretty down on the Twins farm systems talent. Do you agree, or can you make me feel better?

Jarrett Seidler: Nick Gordon should make you feel better.

ted (Germany): Keppler is what this year and at peak?

Jarrett Seidler: Kind of a copout, but Kepler is so weird to project because his background is so weird. I think what he did in 2016 is entirely repeatable and I think he's got a chance to add 50 or 60 points of batting average, but I'm not sure I want to limit the upside either.

Frankie (Seattle ): Make sense for the Cubs to pull something off that helps their defense, like Schwarber (Ortiz replacement) package to Boston for one of their OF'r packages and or Moncada? Beaz could even be thought to play 3B for Red Sox?

Jarrett Seidler: Whatever you think of the on-field reasons to trade Schwarber or Baez, these dudes are freaking legends for the Cubs now, legitimate franchise icons. I'm not sure you want to trade your legends at 24.

Manny (LA): Think Dodgers can get Dozier from the Twins, and what for? Doesn't seem like the competition for 2B would be that competitive, so wouldn't have to give up equal value?

Jarrett Seidler: As always, the Dodgers always have the prospects and young players to get everyone and anyone. And they've yet to actually make those trades.

Dozier is signed so cheaply for the next two years and is coming off a 40 dinger season. I don't think you're pulling a heist here.

Roddy (San Diego): Is the Padres' farm system as deep as advertised? And when will it start making the team competitive?

Jarrett Seidler: Sure, but the majority of those guys are at Low-A or lower, Margot excluded. So those guys they dealt for and signed, they're largely three, four, five, even six years off. Whether or not they start going for it sooner is a choice.

Confused (Ny): Is jason Castro better than Kevin plawecki?

Jarrett Seidler: He's a better hitter and something of an easier hitter to leverage because he has massive platoon splits. Platooning catchers based on offensive handedness is out of vogue for various reasons, but even a soft platoon can turn Castro into a pretty good regular. Plawecki has yet to show an ability to hit upper-level pitching.

PunchoutPappy (First in Flight): Beyond your run of the mill elite prospects (e.g. Urias, Giolito, Glasnow) and thoroughly discussed players (e.g. Lugo, Gsellman), which starting pitching prospects are you looking forward to getting a shot this year? Why?

Jarrett Seidler: I'd like to get more looks at Justus Sheffield, who I saw once and loved and should see a lot more of in Trenton. The aforementioned Michael Kopech, too.

Jim (Baltimore ): What are your feelings on conviction when it comes to ranking prospects?

Jarrett Seidler: If someone who I think has a good eye and isn't hyperbolic has a really strong feeling about a prospect, that matters a lot. I have friends and associates who I will take very seriously when they say they're very high on X or Y.

Erik (LA): Where would Seth Lugo be on a top 100 if he didn't lose his prospect eligibility? Further, Does Lugo, Kevin Plawecki and Gabriel Ynoa give TB enough value for Alex Colome?

Jarrett Seidler: Probably off it because of age and health. That hypothetical trade sounds quite fair for Colome, but I also suspect the Mets may just drop Lugo into that role themselves.

AJ (Ottawa): What are your thoughts on Lewis Brinson? The shine seemed to wear off a bit after an up and down year. What can we expect from him going forward? Also, can we expect to see Aaron Blair start the year in the majors or does he need more time back in the minors?

Jarrett Seidler: The reports out of the Texas League on Brinson were never as down as the stats, and it only still stands out because his best month is split off into a different line. I think his stock is even to even slightly up compared to last offseason.

I'm pretty down on Blair. Dickey and Colon may push him back to the minors.

Mike (NY): Can Byron Buxton become a good player or is he destined to become another Felix Pie/Corey Patterson type player.

Jarrett Seidler: He's 22 and already an outstanding defender with a slightly useful offensive profile. He's already better than Felix Pie, no?

Mark (Philadelphia): What can you tell me about some of the young Phillies arms? Do you believe in Adonis Medina, Sixto, & Kilome to all develop? Do you suspect someone will take a chance on Seranthony Dominguez & what type of ceiling do you see for him? Have heard rave reports on him from ST! Thanks!

Jarrett Seidler: Glowing reports all season on Sixto. Have also heard great things about Adonis, and I hope to see both often in Lakewood next year. Kilome I saw a bunch this year and it's a Jekyll-and-Hyde act. You could tell me he's a top global prospect or a bad High-A reliever in two years and I'd believe either.

Was a little surprised Seranthony wasn't protected, but that was a goofy amount of dudes they had to add and he's really far away. Carrying a pitcher with 50 innings of full-season ball is always really tough, but it might be easier if the new CBA adds a 26th man.

Thomas (TX): It seems like there are signs that Thomas Szapucki both will and will not continue to develop as a starter – curious for your take?

Jarrett Seidler: The Mets were already comfortable pushing a starter's workload on him in game, which is good. Other than the possibility that his back problems recur and general pitcher volatility, I don't see any reason he can't stick.

Sean99 (Chicago): Is Jose Berrios just a flat fastball reliever or does he make some adjustments and return to the ceiling most thought?

Jarrett Seidler: So the concern with Berrios is that he was bad in exactly the ways the people that believed in him less thought he would be bad...

Kdog6969 (Chicago): Is it time to give up on berrios? Ouch

Jarrett Seidler: ...but it's only 50 innings, guys. I do think there's a pretty good chance he ends up in relief, though.

Sean99 (Chicago): Marcos Diplan make a serious move up lists this year?

Jarrett Seidler: He could. James likes him. Everyone mentions "reliever" somewhere in his profile though, and that can stifle the big move some.

PunchoutPappy (First in Flight): What's your feel on Willy Adames? I'm higher on him than ______, but I believe _____ will be better than him. Anything in particular stand out about Adames?

Jarrett Seidler: Feels weirdly under the radar since the initial burst of hype within a few months of the Price trade. He's a very good prospect who keeps climbing up the system without making a lot of noise one way or the other. Think he's moved past, say, Jorge Mateo, and is in the next tier down globally from the hypothetical Rodgers/Torres group we were talking about earlier.

PunchoutPappy (First in Flight): Will Ian Happ end up being the second best prospect the Cubs trade for pitching depth? What's your view on a floor season for him?

Jarrett Seidler: Ian Happ might end up being the second best prospect in the Cubs system after all the graduations and trades. His floor is probably an up-and-down reserve outfielder, but again, floors are low.

Paul (Minnesota): Jahmai Jones - what type of offensive ceiling does he have in a weak Angel system? .300/10-15 HR/30+ SB?

Jarrett Seidler: That's *really* aggressive for a guy that has like three weeks in full-season ball. But yeah, good reports on him, and I mean, the rest of that system might actually be worse than the Miami catastrophe.

Mike (NY): No Victor Robles questions yet, surprising. Do you see him being traded this winter for an arm or they think he is the post Harper star.

Jarrett Seidler: Maybe for Chris Sale. Maybe.

Kristen (Canada): Is the Brinson-plus-Ortiz-for-Lucroy going to haunt the Rangers for years? Don't get why TEX traded them for only 1.5 seasons of Lucroy, especially when at the deadline a much-needed #3-SP Matt Moore was available.

Jarrett Seidler: Because Lucroy is a MVP-quality player signed very cheaply for that year and a half and Matt Moore is...well, I really used to like Matt Moore, but he's not very reliable these days. Also...

Kristen (Canada): Do the Rangers have enough prospect ammo left that would land them a good young #3-SP like a Desclafini? Seems like their best ones have been traded already, and the lustre on Profar and Gallo has worn off.

Jarrett Seidler: Of course they do. I think Cincy would still fall all over themselves to make a DeSclafini for Gallo or Profar trade, and if they wouldn't plenty of other teams would. The Rangers still have solid pitching prospect depth with Mendez and Jurado, and some really exciting players deeper, like Tejeda, Taveras, and Yrizarri. More than enough to land an arm, plus you can always get mid-rotation guys in free agency for the right money.

PunchoutPappy (First in Flight): Completely baseless belief of mine is the Astros trading prospects like David Paulino, AJ Reed, and Drew Stubbs, plus another low level arm for a high end first basemen OR top level starter. In the event of a trade, knowing the Astros current situation, would you prefer reportedly available Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman, or Wil Myers? Would you rather trade the bevy of prospects for a starter and sign an E5? Are any of these scenarios NOT plausible in your estimation?

Jarrett Seidler: Freeman is probably the best player of those currently and also probably signed to the best contract considering age and term, so I'd go for him. I don't know if that kind of deal is actually landing him, though. Cabrera's extension seems rather...un-Astroslike. Myers might be the best fit given price and likely return.

Encarnacion makes a lot of sense for Houston too. But aside from Myers, all of these require a huge financial commitment the likes of which Houston has yet to do under this ownership and front office. And even though they're spending, they're also still doing small-market stuff like dumping Neshek's salary and trading better talent to avoid taking the entirety of McCann's deal. So I'll believe it when they actually make that huge high-eight or nine figure all-in move.

Steak (NYC ): Who's next?

Jarrett Seidler: And we'll end with our one and only pro wrestling question. If you've tuned out in the last 18 years, you may have missed the return of Goldberg in the last month, which has been one of the most genuinely cool stories WWE has done in years and years. If you liked him back in the day, seek out at least his return promo and the Survivor Series match against Lesnar.

Jarrett Seidler: Hate leaving questions in the queue, but we've been at it three hours and it's almost time for me to go to sleep. Suspect we'll do this again in a couple months, and you can always find me on Twitter @jaseidler or on the podcast or wherever else. Thanks everyone!


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Contact Us