Biographical

Portrait of Steven Matz

Steven Matz P  

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2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
77.0 4.51 1.44 69 3 6 0 -0.2
Birth Date5-29-1991
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lbs
Age23 years, 4 months, 22 days
BatsR
ThrowsL
2010
2011
2012
2013
-0.22014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G GS IP IP-SP IP-RP W L SV BS QS BQS PA H R ER HR TB BB UBB HBP SO ERA FIP FRA VORP WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP FRA FRA+ TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP PPF PVORP PWARP VORP WARP
2012 KNG Rk 6 6 29.0 4.98 111 .212 .248 .318 .361 .250 .227 108 4.7 0.4 4.7 0.4
2013 SAV A 21 21 106.3 3.42 114 .230 .244 .312 .357 .257 .315 87 17.4 1.8 17.4 1.8
2014 SLU A+ 12 12 69.3 3.98 117 .232 .260 .327 .374 .257 .328 103 9.6 1.0 9.6 1.0
2014 BIN AA 12 12 71.3 3.07 133 .236 .260 .319 .389 .258 .317 104 19.4 2.1 18.0 1.9

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 WHIP ERA VORP WARP
2012 KNG Rk 2 1 0 6 6 29.0 16 17 34 1 46% .227 5.0 5.3 0.3 10.6 1.14 1.55 4.7 0.4
2013 SAV A 5 6 0 21 21 106.3 86 38 121 4 55% .315 7.3 3.2 0.3 10.2 1.17 2.62 17.4 1.8
2014 SLU A+ 4 4 0 12 12 69.3 66 21 62 0 59% .328 8.6 2.7 0.0 8.0 1.25 2.21 9.6 1.0
2014 BIN AA 6 5 0 12 12 71.3 66 14 69 3 48% .317 8.3 1.8 0.4 8.7 1.12 2.27 18.0 1.9

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-10-15 2013-10-15 Off 0 0 - Knee Surgery Patella Debridement - -
2011-06-21 2011-09-01 Minors 72 0 Left Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2010-05-18 -
2010-06-22 2010-08-30 Minors 69 0 Left Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2010-05-18

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 0 d1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Contract purchased by NY Mets 11/20/13. Re-signed by NY Mets 3/3/14.
  • Drafted by NY Mets 2009 (2-72) (Melville HS, East Setauket, NY). $0.895M signing bonus.

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA FRA VORP WARP
90o 5.6 6.5 0 20 20 101.4 74 40 90 9 .262 1.13 3.16 3.43 15.9 1.6
80o 4.9 6.4 0 19 19 92.7 74 40 83 9 .280 1.23 3.61 3.92 8.7 0.9
70o 4.4 6.3 0 17 17 86.6 74 39 77 9 .293 1.31 3.94 4.28 4.3 0.4
60o 4 6.2 0 16 16 81.6 73 39 73 9 .304 1.38 4.23 4.6 0.9 0.1
50o 3.6 6.1 0 15 15 77.0 72 39 69 9 .314 1.44 4.51 4.9 -1.8 -0.2
40o 3.3 5.9 0 14 14 72.5 71 38 65 8 .325 1.51 4.79 5.2 -4.1 -0.4
30o 2.9 5.8 0 14 14 67.8 70 37 61 8 .336 1.59 5.10 5.54 -6.3 -0.6
20o 2.5 5.6 0 12 12 62.4 68 37 56 8 .349 1.68 5.47 5.94 -8.3 -0.9
10o 2 5.3 0 11 11 55.3 65 35 49 8 .368 1.82 6.00 6.52 -10.5 -1.1
Weighted Mean3.65.90151576.17138688.3111.424.464.84-1.2-0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA FRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201524101003131200177912001848.3171.343.894.238.04.19.00.80.7
2016259903030189158791851748.3011.253.573.887.53.88.80.81.5
2017269902929177153761741948.3051.303.824.157.83.98.91.00.9
20182710903030191162751901748.3051.243.443.747.63.58.90.81.9
2019289902929180157721761748.3121.273.633.957.83.68.80.81.3
2020299802929177152681721748.3061.253.523.837.73.58.80.91.6
2021309802828173149651681648.3061.243.493.797.83.48.70.81.6
2022319802727164141611591648.3061.233.483.787.83.48.70.91.6
2023328802626154133561491548.3061.233.473.777.83.38.70.91.5

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
24.77.4914.113.849.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 90)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 96 Frank Garces 2013 0.00 DNP
2 94 Dellin Betances 2011 6.75
3 94 Bradley Holt 2010 0.00 DNP
4 94 Antonio Bastardo 2009 6.85
5 94 Juan Nicasio 2010 0.00 DNP
6 93 Marc Rzepczynski 2009 3.96
7 93 Austin Wright 2013 0.00 DNP
8 93 Tyler Jones 2013 0.00 DNP
9 93 Garrett Richards 2011 7.07
10 92 Jose Cisnero 2012 0.00 DNP
11 92 Eric Surkamp 2011 6.08
12 92 Bud Norris 2008 0.00 DNP
13 92 Mike Rayl 2012 0.00 DNP
14 92 Nik Turley 2013 0.00 DNP
15 92 Brett Lorin 2010 0.00 DNP
16 92 Christian Garcia 2009 0.00 DNP
17 92 David Rollins 2013 0.00 DNP
18 92 Henry Sosa 2009 0.00 DNP
19 92 Andre Rienzo 2011 0.00 DNP
20 92 Matthew Way 2010 0.00 DNP
21 92 Scott Lewis 2007 0.00 DNP
22 92 Alex Colome 2012 0.00 DNP
23 91 Dan Straily 2012 4.35
24 91 Duane Below 2009 0.00 DNP
25 91 Christian Friedrich 2011 0.00 DNP
26 91 Sean Nolin 2013 40.50
27 91 Ariel Pena 2012 0.00 DNP
28 91 David Bromberg 2011 0.00 DNP
29 91 Aaron Miller 2011 0.00 DNP
30 91 Jake Cowan 2011 0.00 DNP
31 91 Jensen Lewis 2007 2.45
32 91 Kasey Kiker 2011 0.00 DNP
33 91 Matt Magill 2013 8.13
34 91 Dallas Buck 2008 0.00 DNP
35 91 Dimasther Delgado 2012 0.00 DNP
36 90 Erik Goeddel 2012 0.00 DNP
37 90 Andrew Carraway 2010 0.00 DNP
38 90 James Gillheeney 2011 0.00 DNP
39 90 Deryk Hooker 2012 0.00 DNP
40 90 Scott Gorgen 2010 0.00 DNP
41 90 Alex Cobb 2011 3.59
42 90 Blake Wood 2009 0.00 DNP
43 90 Ross Detwiler 2009 5.11
44 90 Adam Conley 2013 0.00 DNP
45 90 Garrett Olson 2007 7.79
46 90 Anthony Capra 2010 0.00 DNP
47 90 Matt Loosen 2012 0.00 DNP
48 90 Jeff Manship 2008 0.00 DNP
49 90 Jake Arrieta 2009 0.00 DNP
50 90 Andrew Chafin 2013 0.00 DNP
51 89 Sammy Solis 2012 0.00 DNP
52 89 Richard Zagone 2010 0.00 DNP
53 89 Shane Greene 2012 0.00 DNP
54 89 Simon Castro 2011 0.00 DNP
55 89 Jhonny Nunez 2009 9.53
56 89 Gregory Nappo 2012 0.00 DNP
57 89 Justin Marks 2011 0.00 DNP
58 89 Brandon Workman 2012 0.00 DNP
59 89 Brayan Villarreal 2010 0.00 DNP
60 89 Kevin Slowey 2007 5.26
61 89 Ubaldo Jimenez 2007 5.05
62 89 Nicholas Carr 2010 0.00 DNP
63 89 Josh Outman 2008 4.91
64 89 Kelvin De La Cruz 2012 0.00 DNP
65 89 James Houser 2008 0.00 DNP
66 89 Travis Banwart 2009 0.00 DNP
67 89 Jeremy Hefner 2009 0.00 DNP
68 89 Bobby Parnell 2008 5.40
69 88 Tyler Thornburg 2012 4.50
70 88 Brandon Erbe 2011 0.00 DNP
71 88 Chuck Lofgren 2009 0.00 DNP
72 88 Deck McGuire 2012 0.00 DNP
73 88 Jordan Pries 2013 0.00 DNP
74 88 Wilmer Font 2013 0.00
75 88 Scott Barnes 2011 0.00 DNP
76 88 Chris Dwyer 2011 0.00 DNP
77 88 Joshua Slaats 2012 0.00 DNP
78 88 Lisalverto Bonilla 2013 0.00 DNP
79 88 Jeff Locke 2011 6.48
80 88 Brett Wallach 2012 0.00 DNP
81 88 Jose A. Ramirez 2013 0.00 DNP
82 88 Kyle Weiland 2010 0.00 DNP
83 88 Heath Rollins 2008 0.00 DNP
84 88 Michael Stutes 2010 0.00 DNP
85 88 Jordan Zimmermann 2009 5.03
86 88 Austin Ross 2012 0.00 DNP
87 88 Tyler Wilson 2013 0.00 DNP
88 88 Steven Hensley 2010 0.00 DNP
89 88 Craig Italiano 2010 0.00 DNP
90 88 Clayton Mortensen 2008 0.00 DNP
91 88 Ben Snyder 2009 0.00 DNP
92 88 Burch Smith 2013 6.44
93 88 Scott Snodgress 2013 0.00 DNP
94 88 Tyler Pill 2013 0.00 DNP
95 88 C.J. Riefenhauser 2013 0.00 DNP
96 88 Michael Kirkman 2010 1.65
97 88 Ramon Garcia 2008 0.00 DNP
98 88 Juan Morillo 2007 9.82
99 88 Elisaul Pimentel 2012 0.00 DNP
100 87 Alexander Smit 2009 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2014 Due to publishing agreements, the 2014 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2014 book (available in hardcopy, e-book, and Kindle).

BP Articles

Steven Matz is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of September 12-14Jeff Moore2014-09-15
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of August 29-September 1Jeff Moore2014-09-02
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, July 28Jeff Moore2014-07-29
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, July 23Jeff Moore2014-07-24
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: What Did I Miss: Steven MatzJason Parks2014-07-22
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, July 17Jeff Moore2014-07-18
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of July 3-6Jeff Moore2014-07-07
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of June 27-29Jeff Moore2014-06-30
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: May 19, 2014Jason Parks2014-05-19
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: May 19, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-05-19
Eyewitness Accounts: Eyewitness Accounts: May 8, 2014Jason Parks2014-05-08
Eyewitness Accounts: Eyewitness Accounts: May 8, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-05-08
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 6Jeff Moore2014-05-07
This article requires BP Premium accessNotes from the Field: April 29, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-04-29
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, April 24Jeff Moore2014-04-25
PECOTA Takes on Prospects: Introduction: I Now Pronounce You Scout and StatAndrew Koo2014-04-15
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: Prospects Who Exceeded Our ExpectationsBP Prospect Staff2013-09-16
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: Prospects Who Exceeded Our ExpectationsJason Parks2013-09-16
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: August 26, 2013Jason Parks2013-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: August 26, 2013BP Prospect Staff2013-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of August 23-25Zach Mortimer2013-08-26
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of August 9-11Zach Mortimer2013-08-12
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, July 15Zach Mortimer2013-07-16
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of June 14-16Zach Mortimer2013-06-17
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 21Zach Mortimer2013-05-22


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-09-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Was this a lost year for Noah Syndergaard? What is Steven Matz's ceiling? A lefty with improving control and a big fastball.
(MetsFaithful5 from Syracuse)
I wouldn't say it's a lost year at all. The PCL is a wasteland for any young pitcher, and in fact, pitching prospects often do better in the big leagues than in that league. I know the stuff has taken a small step back, and he's made a couple of mechanical adjustments. But, the profile is still that of a top of the rotation starter and an impact arm with a plus, plus fastball, plus to plus, plus breaker, and solid avg CH. He'll be fine.

Matz was touched upon by our dearly beloved Jason Parks in his 'what did I miss' series. Definitely an intriguing profile, and could be a middle of the rotation starter. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-08-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Steven Matz? His control has gotten better in Double A. I know he's giving up more hits and striking out less, but those numbers for a lefty are still solid. Top 75 prospect?
(MetsFaithful5 from Syracuse)
I'll punt on the ranking, but there's a lot to like. As Jeff Moore noted http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=72 that velocity comes easy. He's left-handed. He's on the young side for a AA pitcher. Good chance at being seen in 2015 with a real impact in the back/mid rotation in 2016 very much in reach if he doesn't flat line from here. (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-08-06 16:30:00 (link to chat)Whats the potential outlook for Steven Matz?
(MetsFaithful5 from Syracuse)
After his career ends at the age of 34, Steven Matz will take a year off and live at his grandparents house on Long Island, where he will indulge in some of the finest bagels known to man. Then he will spend a year as a backup left defender for the Slovakian national hockey team, which he will easily make because his middle name is Jakob. No not Jacob, but Jakob, which, along with the name Petr, is one of the world's top Slovakian names.

Due to a lack of playing time a disappointed Steven Matz will return to the United States to start a small business. Unable to secure a loan from the local bank, Matz will turn to Kickstarter to fund his new company, Steven's Matz, which specialized in creating, designing, and distributing the most hip and modern door mats on the market. Thanks in part to a large donation from a 56 year old Craig Goldstein, Matz's business will take off. He will run the company for 40 years before retiring to Clinton, Iowa. He will, at some point, die and the doormat community will miss him dearly. (Cespedes Family BBQ)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)These chats are awesome. Keep up the great work man. What are your thoughts on Steven Matz? I've heard some say he has a #2 ceiling? Reports are that his curveball is really developing. Could give him 3 above average pitches. You a fan of Matz Craig?
(Nick from Seattle)
Thanks Nick. I've heard the same on his ceiling from multiple scouts. I think he's drastically underrated and doesn't get enough press. I'm not about to say I think he'll *BE* a #2, but he's definitely pushed his stock up in my eyes. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)Is Kyle Hendricks worth owning in the deepest of leagues? What about Shane Greene? Also whose future do you like better in rate leagues with K/9 Steven Matz or Jake Thompson
(John from Missurah)
Oh yes. In deep leagues you need innings and he will give innings as the Cubs have no SPs. Same with Greene. I prefer Thompson. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)Steven Matz has had an excellent season and has had excellent stuff and slowly seems to be putting the injury concerns behind him. Was he in the discussion? I know Mr. Moore likes him.
(josh from Brooklyn)
Some of my best friends in the scouting community love Matz. Here's my guarantee: I will be writing a "What Did I Miss?" on Matz before this season is over. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
2014-07-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Starting to hear a lot a buzz about Steven Matz, sp, Mets. Would could you tell me about him?
(scott from az)
I haven't seen Matz yet this year but I have heard very good things from industry sources and others on our BP staff. With potential for three average to above-average pitches, Matz has mid-rotation potential if he can continue building on his progress to date. Here's a link to Jeff Moore's recent scouting report on Matz - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=72 (Mark Anderson)
2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)Ceiling on Steven Matz? I know Mellen is a fan.
(Steve from NY)
Mid rotation guy, command profile a bit. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Steven Matz could be a top 75 prospect in the offseason if he keeps this up? He can throw 97 with a good change and curve.
(jason from NY)
I'll argue this off-season for Matz's inclusion in the Top-100. I don't know where he'll fall if he makes it, but the back half seems about right. Setting the over/under at 75 isn't crazy, though I'd say he's just under that. (Jeff Moore)
2014-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Steven Matz has a 1.88 ERA so far this year. Is he an ace in the making after recovering from TJS?
(Jeff from Florida)
Did I ask this question? I swear I didn't.

I just saw Matz for the first time last week and really liked him. He's not an ace. That gets thrown around waaaaaaaaaay too much. He can be a number two and is more likely a solid number three starter. That's a really good pitcher. (Jeff Moore)
2014-04-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Steven Matz?
(Kevin from NYC)
Jeff Moore wrote Matz up today:

Because of his fastball command and ability to use curveball against right-handed hitters, Matz should have no problem staying as a starter. If his changeup continues to develop and gains consistency, he could develop into a no. 2 starter. Poised to move quickly now that he's healthy and shouldn't be in the FSL for long.
(R.J. Anderson)
2014-04-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Steven Matz of the Mets? I recently heard Dan Warthen comparing him to Kershaw, which to me sounds crazy, but coming back from TJ, he did pitch well last year. Do you think he'll shoot up prospect lists this year? Could he form a nasty set of pitchers in NY with Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Montero sometime in the future? Thanks in advance Matt. I really appreciate the help.
(Jeff from New Hampshire)
First, how perfect is it that Matz plays for the Metz, er Mets? I personally find it perfect.

Comparing anyone, let alone a minor-leaguer coming off TJ surgery to Clayton Kershaw sounds foolish to me. From what I know about Matz, he might be better off in the pen (high stress delivery and undeveloped secondary offerings). Still, it never hurts to have a young guy who can miss bats with his fastball. I feel comfortable saying he's not Kershaw, but he could help the Mets in a few years and we all know they can use all the help they can get. (Matthew Kory)
2014-04-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Steven Matz has the talent to be a top ___ prospect at the end of the season, assuming no serious injuries. What's his ceiling?
(Mankind from The Boilerroom)
You're looking to see if I'll say Top-101 here. I know you're little tricks. Yeah, if he's healthy he's got good stuff so maybe, but wee need to see more before I can say that with any confidence. I'm going to see St. Lucie twice this week so hopefully he'll throw and I'll have a better answer for you. I haven't seen the pitching match ups yet, but hopefully I'll draw him. Ask me again this weekend if I see him.

Don't worry everyone, I made a sandwich for hour two. Keep the questions coming! (Jeff Moore)
2013-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Vegas over/under number of number 2 or better starters from this group: Lewis Thorpe, Julio Urias, Hunter Harvey, Edwin Diaz, Alex Reyes, Jesse Hahn, Steven Matz, Adalberto Mejia.
(huggirl from Joisey)
From that group, one pitcher will develop into a number two starter (or better). I was tempted to say 0. (Jason Parks)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.