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Previous Rankings: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007

While it's entirely likely you'll skip right ahead to the rankings, we wanted to provide some context for the list. As always, prospect lists are a snapshot in time—in this case January 1, when the list was compiled. It's possible a prospect's situation has changed since then, or that our evaluator's feelings on a prospect have changed, due to new information. Within a week of the list being submitted, Jeffrey Paternostro told me there were only seven rankings he hated already. I'm guessing that number has risen as time's gone on. We hope you enjoy reading and debating the list as much as we enjoyed putting it together. —Craig Goldstein

1. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK

2. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

3. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK

5. Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

6. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK

7. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK

8. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK

9. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK

10. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

11. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK

12. Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

13. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

14. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK

15. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

16. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

17. Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK

18. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK

19. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

20. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK

21. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK

22. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK

23. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK

24. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK

25. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK

26. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK

27. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK

28. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK

29. Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

30. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

31. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

32. Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK

33. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK

34. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK

35. Ozhaino Albies, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

36. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

37. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK

38. Jose De Leon, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK

39. Yohander Mendez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK

40. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK

41. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

42. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK

43. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B/OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

44. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

45. Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK

46. Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK

47. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK

48. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK

49. Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

50. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK

51. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK

52. Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

53. Tyler O'Neill, OF, Seattle Mariners
Scouting Report: LINK

54. Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK

55. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK

56. Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK

57. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK

58. James Kaprielian, RHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

59. Isan Diaz, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

60. Grant Holmes, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK

61. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK

62. Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK

63. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

64. Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

65. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK

66. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK

67. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

68. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

69. Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK

70. Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners
Scouting Report: LINK

71. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
Scouting Report: LINK

72. Ariel Jurado, RHP, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK

73. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK

74. Franklyn Kilome, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK

75. Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

76. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting Report: LINK

77. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK

78. Jahmai Jones, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Scouting Report: LINK

79. Delvin Perez, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK

80. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK

81. Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK

82. Albert Abreu, RHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

83. David Paulino, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK

84. Franklin Perez, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK

85. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK

86. Frankie Montas, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK

87. Trevor Clifton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK

88. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Scouting Report: LINK

89. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

90. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK

91. Adonis Medina, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK

92. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK

93. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK

94. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK

95. Anderson Tejeda, SS, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK

96. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

97. Alec Hansen, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK

98. Tyler Jay, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK

99. Trent Clark, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK

100. Kevin Maitan, SS, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK

101. Tyler Wade, IF/OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK

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heterodude
2/13
I always like seeing a writer go all-in for a prospect, and there are a handful here that I believe you're much higher on than most. Good read.
bjjfan
2/13
New subscriber here, but I've been reading for a while. Love the work you all do, keep it up. I'm very surprised by the difference in Yohander Mendez on your list and BA's top 100. You have him 39, they have him un-ranked. What do you believe is the cause of this disparity?
jpaternostro
2/13
I can really only speak to our own list-making process, but we saw Mendez as a basically major-league-ready mid-rotation arm, and the reports we had on him both internally and externally were strong. He's not that far off de Leon as a matter of profile.
tomshipley75
2/13
How long have you been reading for? Since, like, second grade?
tearecrules
2/13
Here, have a +1, Being technically correct is the best kind of correct.
maphal
2/13
Is a -16 rating a record at BP? #goals
tomshipley75
2/13
Wow. If not, maybe -25 is. Just a tongue-in-cheeck comment!
TroJim
2/14
Edgy crowd in February, lol
Shawndc7175
2/13
I'm curious as to why Jharel Cotton is not listed. Is he in the 102-110 area or am I overrating him?
jpaternostro
2/13
I don't know about the next ten, but he'd make a 150, maybe a 125. Still very possible he's a reliever, and the change-up is the only real plus offering. He's more of a fun prospect than an impact one.
OoPMF2
2/13
Very 2016 draft heavy list
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
it is relatively heavy to the last couple years -- good point. 2014 also had 15 draftees from the year prior on the list, so we don't have to go *too* far back to find a similar representation.
jpaternostro
2/13
We had Rob run the numbers, and the last four years have had 15, 11, 11, 15 from the previous Summer's draft. I don't know if that is significant or not, but I do think it was pretty a good draft class, especially if you wanted a high upside arm.
jpaternostro
2/13
Oh come on, Craig.
lowguppy
2/13
Not as heavy as some other lists I've seen, fwiw.
coopr1248
2/13
Where would Willie Calhoun rank if you knew he would stick at 2B?
jpaternostro
2/13
I don't love these kind of hypotheticals--what would this prospect be if he was actually a different prospect--but my lazy comp would be pre-2015 Dilson Herrera with more pop and less speed/athleticism, so back half of the list somewhere.
elcorazon86
2/13
You had Dominic Smith of the Mets in the mid 80's last year, he had his best pro year last year and now he is dropped off. Is this indicative of Smith losing value or better talent after the 2016 draft which the list is heavy on.
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
Different lead ranker, different prospect team, different philosophies at play in terms of ordering. This list was produced from scratch, so best not to view it as a relative ranking to last year's edition so much as an independent list. In this sense Smith didn't "drop off," but is just valued differently.
DrDooby
2/13
And - leaving out any sort of judgement of this opinion - J. Paternostro has certainly been on the low end of the Dominic Smith evaluation spectrum (opposite of Keith Law), pretty much where time will tell who got this specific case right. To make up for it - from a Mets point of view - Gsellman ranks 50 spots ahead of the consensus. Will be fun to look back in a couple of years.
jpaternostro
2/13
And for what it's worth, Smith is getting a write up in the just missed Ten Pack going up tomorrow, and the difference between like 80 (which would put us more in line with other national sources) and 110 just isn't that significant. That said, I've seen Smith 15 times or so over the last three years and wrote about him plenty. You can disagree with us leaving him off, and many will, but I don't think it should be shocking. Also, internally he didn't really get pushed by any of our other authors for a spot, and there were plenty of cases in the back 10-20 spots where I got convinced on a guy by our team.
elcorazon86
2/14
thank you all very much for explaining. it will be fun to look back a few years from now to see how these players do.
dpotemkin
2/13
Why aren't you as high as I am, on my favorite prospects?
BuckarooBanzai
2/13
I regret to inform you that you're wrong about those prospects, and none of them will ever amount to anything :(
dpotemkin
2/14
Lol! That's just because you're biased and too lazy to go see them in action. Thanks for playing, Wilson! It's a very interesting and -- I've no doubt -- well-deliberated list.
glworld
2/13
u got maitan ranked and he hasn't even played yet and no vladimir guerrero jr...I'm i missing something?
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
I don't think you're necessarily missing something so much as we might weight their likelihoods differently. We're pretty confident in Maitan's ability to stick on the left side of the infield (even if it is at third), and less so about Guerrero's. If the latter ends up at first, it's a big dent in the profile.
trookie83
2/13
Compared to the rest of the industry, the two biggest differences I see are an unranked Guerrero and #17 Gsellman. If you could expand a bit more on your process for those two players that'd be great. Thanks!
jpaternostro
2/13
We like Vladito a lot, and he was in the 90s on various iterations of the list. In the end, we decided that the likelihood that he ends up at first base means we want to see him perform in full-season ball before pulling the trigger on him as a global top 100 prospect. I fully admit we might end up being a year late here, but that's the risk you run. I've written a lot about Gsellman on the site, but the stuff has jumped this year. The fastball looks plus-plus now, a sinker with hard, late movement in the mid-90s, the slider is a potential plus pitch and the curve has tightened up as he's thrown the hard slider more. That's a 70 FB / 60 SL / 55 CU from a guy that is already in the majors. The proximity, floor, and still remaining upside if the command and change find another half grade makes him one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for us.
trookie83
2/13
Appreciate the insight. Thanks again.
oldbopper
2/15
It is good to see a professional evaluator actually use the eye test to change their opinions when confronted by facts. Gsellman was not a hot prospect but his stuff was outstanding when he got to the majors. It looks like an instant replay of Jacob deGrom whose stuff was considered marginal, or even less, but looked like an top pitcher from his first major league start. You have to wonder how detrimental Las Vegas is to the Mets when trying to evaluate pitchers. The heat and elevation must make the stuff play down.
jarrettseidler
2/15
In general the Vegas comment is an astute pickup; Syndergaard in particular had all sorts of issues out there that turned out to be purely Vegas and PCL-related. For Gsellman specifically however, he only made nine starts out there and about half of them were effectively rehab from a lingering quad injury that they shut him down for a month to get rid of. Honestly, there were rumblings out of both Bingo and Vegas before Gsellman's call-up that he was gaining velocity and the slider was tightening. It didn't show up in the performance until he hit the majors, but it's not entirely not without foundation.
bta477
2/13
Matt Chapman close-ish to making the list?
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
Assuming you return tomorrow, you'll read about him in the "just missed" section we have coming.
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
I'm told this came off as snippy. It wasn't intended to be but I felt self conscious about using exclamation points, my b.
bta477
2/13
lol it's cool
bta477
2/13
Thanks! He's definitely one of my pet prospects so I'm always curious where he ends up on top 100s.
hardball
2/13
AJ Reed has dropped completely off the list after a poor debut, even though he rebounded after in AAA?
jarrettseidler
2/13
He was ineligible for the prospect lists due to service time. I have no clue if he would've made it or not because we didn't discuss him at any point after figuring out he was ineligible during the Astros list process.
hardball
2/13
Ah, gotcha. I assumed since he was under the 130AB threshold that he would have been eligible. Thanks!
davinhbrown
2/13
Where does the team/consensus come in terms of starters with potential to be a #3, or back-end types versus those with the potential for more? We've seen guys in top 100's from various sites like A Blair and J Thompson in the past, get a month or two of starts and fall off the map. I realize proximity to majors decreases risk. But I guess in general, does the team here favor say a guy in AAA who may be a 3/4 SP, or a teenager with stuff who may be more than that?
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
Good question that requires something of a nuanced answer that boils down to... it depends. That's not really satisfying, I know, but all teenagers with stuff are not built alike, really, and nor are all mid-rotation starter types. I think it's clear given the aggressive rankings on guys like Alvarez and Espinoza that we like the high-upside guys with risk. But then we also have Pint a little lower, and Szapucki lower still, so it's all about how much risk they carry at a given moment, and the various ways that risk can play out, plus how likely we think those various scenarios are. Then you balance that with the guys closer to the majors who might have less risk, but less reward. And any risk they do have might have a bigger effect on the overall profile, too, since there's less margin for error in total. So there might be an overall trend or philosophy for us as a team/site it's more about breaking down the component pieces and trying to make sure it all makes sense.
TeamPineTar
2/13
So where does that put Luke Weaver. I'm not even through my first comparative list, but Weaver ranks highest on BBl Amer (#50) for guys not on the BP list. Thx.
TeamPineTar
2/13
...oops, besides Vladito (#20 BBl Amer), already covered well in comments above.
jpaternostro
2/13
The performance was good (at least until the majors), I just don't know that the stuff really backs it up going forward. When he is sitting more 91-94 with just the changeup, it's a backend starter with little margin for error. He wasn't really in contention, because we view him as 'riskier' than your standard MLB #4 going forward. He could get there throwing a full season sitting a tick or two higher like he did at times, and with either breaker getting a bit better, but of course if he does that he likely isn't list-eligible next year.
huztlers
2/13
I am ashamed of myself for nitpicking anything, because I always enjoy a good prospect list, but I think Moncada at #5 is really low. It could look really bad within a year.
Shauncore
2/13
It's kind of weird to say, but maybe Moncada kinda HURT himself by appearing in the majors. The strikeouts were always a bit of a flag but now they may have gone from yellow to red (or at least orange). He struck out 30% of the time in AA then 60% of the time in his 20 MLB PA. Now I confident that won't last of course, but there's a realistic world where Moncada strikes out 25% of the time in the majors. That's not a killer by any means, but it's not nothing and puts pressure on the bat. Still though, #5 overall is pretty damn good, and the difference between #1 and #5 isn't that much.
Behemoth
2/13
I think if Moncada strikes out 25% of the time in the majors, the White Sox would take that now.
huztlers
2/14
For sure it hurt him! I think the eventual distance between him and the position players above him could be enormous. He is a 40/40 ceiling guy vs some high-floor guys deriving half their value from defense.
oldbopper
2/15
I watched everyone of those at bats and they were ugly. Even the hits were weak. One name keeps popping into my mind, Byron Buxton. Everything but the ability to make contact.
jarrettseidler
2/13
I am almost certainly the high guy on Moncada on staff and I can't see any way to get him higher than 4 or 5 here. He's behind guys that have similar star upside but also have considerably higher outcomes in like the 25-40th percentile areas. It's certainly possible that Moncada really hits and nobody else in the top five does because it's a prospect list, but I like him where he is.
jeanz117
2/13
God how is Reyes above Benintendi! This is clearly a load of horse hockey. Maybe if Jeffrey didn't listen to The (terrible) Mountain Goats while he did the list, maybe it wud huv been uh bettah list. Craig, what is the best prospect? I'll hang up and listen.
bigdaddyleroy
2/13
Great stuff. When should we expect the dynasty top 101?
BenC22
2/13
Bret and I collaborated on it this year and are aiming for next week, which means it will probably be out the week after next :)
boatman44
2/21
Ahhh dynasty lists with Bret , I expect too see Zach Collins near the summit, if not highest on this list :)
lowguppy
2/13
Okay, the one head-scratcher for me is Adonis Medina. Nothing I've read about him suggests either the ceiling or the probability to be a top 100 guy.
dburke13
2/13
Roughly where would Luis Robert slot on this list if he were eligible?
davinhbrown
2/13
I can't imagine the legwork that goes into this list, from in-season discussions and scouting, etc, lots of hours over a long period of time. And I realize there will be an article or two on guys who just-missed. But did anyone consider making a supplement to it, say 101-200, and just putting the names in chunks of like 25 per group. Seems like a lot of data and discussion gets left on the cutting room floor. I can't imagine the comments...." why wasn't so-and-so included; or he should have been in the 150-175 tier" Yes, I know most of the stuff gets throw into the team prospect top 10s. But you can't say their wouldn't be a demand for it - either a top 200, or team top 20's. Just a thought.
TheArtfulDodger
2/13
Appreciate the thought. Reality is that no matter where you cut off a list, people are going to ask about the next names just off of it. So there's always going to be some level of demand for the type of thing you describe. I think at some point, though, you lose value. We already cover 300-450 prospects between the Top 10s and the others of note. We rank them according to OFP/Likely, so if you want to delve into fluid-ish blocks for the next 100 names, you could group players that way and it would likely be fairly representative.
heterodude
2/13
You could always just satirize If You Give a Mouse a Cookie as an article. "Once you have told the mouse where Dom Smith would have fallen in the rankings, he will ask about Adrian Morejon..."
JackCecil
2/14
Good job guys, thank you for this work!
delatopia
2/14
Appreciate the work and what had to be intense discussions into the composition of the list. Question for amateur prospect hounds: I have an upcoming pick in a prospect draft. These are not top 100 guys and won't be for at least another year or two, but would you rather have the Braves' Cristian Pache or the Rays' Jesus Sanchez?
BuckarooBanzai
2/15
I'd narrowly prefer the gamble on Sanchez, I think. I see more projectable power and like his chances at a playable hit tool.
delatopia
2/15
Thanks! JP in the chat said Pache. I appreciate the independent thinking, and it looks like it's a coin flip anyway until there's some distinct separation.
anglemyer
2/15
BP cover jinx for Reyes?
TheArtfulDodger
2/15
:( :( :(
oldbopper
2/15
It is replacing the SI cover as the the most feared award in sports.
oldbopper
2/15
Re-reading Andrew Benintendi's write-up brought up this question. It was written that there might not be a better hitting prospect to come along for many years yet he wasn't given an 80. That seems to say that while 80 speed exists, Billy Hamilton, 80 arms are out there, Aaron Hicks and 80 gloves, Francisco Lindor, there will never be an 80 hitter.
Brackemyre
2/20
Will there be a "Top 101 Fantasy Prospects" list this year? That's my favorite "list" of the baseball year...