PECOTA Projections

Download the 2023 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance

PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.

Download the 2023 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)

PECOTA Release Notes
March 30, 2023

Depth chart updates through March 29.

PECOTA 2023: News & NotesB

by BP Stats Team 2/14

A few items to know about this year's edition of PECOTA.

PECOTA 2023: Free Agent Fits$

by Patrick Dubuque 2/14

Image credit: © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Looking at who's available, what 2023 PECOTA thinks of them, and what teams might have interest.

PECOTA 2023: 8 Hitters on the Rise$

by Daniel R. Epstein 2/14

Image credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

PECOTA thinks well of these eight hitters in 2023, so let's discuss why.

Who You Gonna Trust, PECOTA or Your Lyin’ Eyes$

by Rob Mains 2/14

Image credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Why PECOTA matters

PECOTA 2023: PECOTA Superlatives$

by Ginny Searle 2/15

Image credit: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Can anyone topple Joey Gallo to become the Most Three-True-Outcomes Player? Obviously no. But also yes.

PECOTA 2023: Six Hitters PECOTA Dislikes$

by Craig Goldstein 2/15

Image credit: © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Is PECOTA much to do with love, or more with hate?

PECOTA 2023: Free Agent Fits Part 2$

by Patrick Dubuque 2/15

Looking at what's left in the outfield, at DH, and on the mound.

Why PECOTA Hates Your Favorite Team, 2023 Edition$

by Rob Mains 2/16

Image credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

It’s nothing personal. Well, actually, it is. But let’s say it’s not.

PECOTA 2023: Six Interesting Prospect Projections$

by Jarrett Seidler 2/16

Image credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Going deeper on the projections for six notable prospects.

PECOTA 2023: Reviewing Rotational Depth$

by Timothy Jackson 2/16

Deadline and offseason trades, plus some returns to health have turned a 2022 liability into a potential strength for Minnesota. Who else has the depth to survive the season?

Previous years PECOTA Spreadsheets (subscription required)