PECOTA Week: A Depth Chart Playing Time Primer 2024B
2/05
Image credit: © Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK
As a wise man once said, "all projections are playing time projections."
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Download the 2025 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)
PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance
PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.
Download the 2025 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)
PECOTA Release Notes
March 27, 2025
As a wise man once said, "all projections are playing time projections."
The 2024 season is inching closer, and some players will take the opportunity to reach their highest level yet.
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Forecasting improvements on 2023 for these arms.
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Good news about the Reds' 80th-percentile projection. Bad news about everyone else's 80th-percentile projection.
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It's nothing personal.
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It’s nothing personal. Well, actually, it is. But let’s say it’s not.
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Contrary to popular belief, PECOTA doesn't hate everyone... even some of the folks who hate it.
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Think of it as bulletin board material, except a lot of these teams need far more than that.
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This year, the free agent groundhog saw its shadow.
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For all the teams that are procrastinating on finishing their rosters ahead of spring training.
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Hey, a 0.1% chance means it could happen.
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A look at how our projection system has reacted to some of this year's rookie crop.
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Why PECOTA matters, whether it's February or July.
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PECOTA makes its money betting on regression. Detroit will try to escape its pull.
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On PECOTA, billionaires failing, Jordan, and then the actual news of the week.
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Pitching is about disrupting timing, but it's also about disguising your flaws forever.
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All week you've read about the best and the worst. Now it's time for the most.
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Remember, kids: high projected BABIPs are earned, not given.
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