PECOTA Projections

Download the 2022 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)

PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance

PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.

2022 PECOTA Percentiles spreadsheet (Annual membership required)

PECOTA Release Notes
April 7, 2022

Depth charts updates through April 7.
Final preseason projections.

Introducing PECOTA for 2022B

by Jonathan Judge 2/15

Image credit: © Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Improvements, changes. and more on the latest and greatest iteration of BP's player projection system.

PECOTA 2022: A Depth Chart Playing Time PrimerB

by Darius Austin 2/15

Image credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Understanding the role depth charts and playing time have in PECOTA projections.

PECOTA 2022: Prospects the Projections Like$

by Jarrett Seidler 2/15

Image credit: © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Six notable prospects PECOTA views optimistically.

PECOTA 2022: An All-New Player Comps SystemB

by Shawn Brody 2/15

Image credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

This year, the player comps system is 100% new and 100% not-bad.

PECOTA 2022: 10 Hitters on the Rise$

by Daniel R. Epstein 2/16

Image credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Ten names who are projected to exceed both their 2021 and career DRC+.

PECOTA 2022: Understanding the Percentile RangesB

by Robert Au 2/16

Image credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Understanding PECOTA percentiles, with dice!

PECOTA 2022: Why Change the Story?$

by Russell A. Carleton 2/16

Image credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of reasons why Trevor Story might not want to engage the idea of moving away from shortstop. There are also reasons it's worth considering.