Download the 2021 PECOTA Weighted Means spreadsheet (Annual membership required)
PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance
PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.
2021 PECOTA Weighted Means spreadsheet (Annual membership required)
PECOTA Release Notes
Apr 1, 2021
Explaining the 2021 edition of PECOTA following a strange, short season
Much of PECOTA's inputs are automated. The depth charts are the opposite—here's why that's important.
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A look at 10 hitters PECOTA is enamored of, and what it sees for them in 2021.
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A look at six players who could blossom if they get a shot.
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Ten pitchers PECOTA is crushing on for 2021.
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A closer look at a handful of rookies PECOTA really likes in 2021.
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Why did Marcus Semien only get a one-year contract?
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Further or: These are the players PECOTA can nail down least.
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The Giants offense, by PECOTA, looks like one of the deepest in the majors. How did that happen?
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Unwinding the mysteries behind some of the least predictable players.
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It’s nothing personal. Well, actually, it is. But let’s say it’s not.
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BP Park Factors are better than ever for 2021, and account for a critical element: volatility.
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Using PECOTA's view of Fried to understand its estimation of the Braves writ large.
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And which is positioned to win the regular season?
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Injuries are a notorious point of struggle for projection systems. Here are four injury-prone teams PECOTA might miss on.
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