Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of mixed models to tease out the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) home runs and balls in play, and achieves significant improved reliability over the raw versions of those and other statistics.
DRA has equal descriptive power to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and offers much improved reliability and run prediction. DRA is park, platoon, framing, and opponent-adjusted, and is scaled to follow the distribution of RA9. From 2008-onward, it includes specific characteristics of the subject pitch, as tracked by PitchInfo. It also includes the pitcherâ€™s command runs (from CSAA), basestealing runs (SRAA and TRAA), and errant runs (EPAA).
DRA, examined through the lens of MLB’s surprising ERA leader.
Improvement on his fastball and curveball, and excellent location spotting no matter the type of pitch, put Biagini in position to succeed. The Jays have given him an opportunity to start and he’s running with it.
He has posted a 1.13 ERA in four starts for the Brewers. Will this success sustain?
What if you could have a metric that accurately describes what a pitcher did while also reliably forecasting the skills that pitcher would bring to the future?
Our advanced pitching metric suggests brighter days ahead for some of these hurlers.
With DRA, solving BABIP–and other reasons to be excited about what we’re measuring.
The Cubs’ pitchers are on a historical DRA-beating pace. Are there some factors that explain why some teams do this?
DRA in depth: Finding a run-expectancy curve that would eliminate the negative DRA.