Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of mixed models to tease out the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) home runs and balls in play, and achieves significant improved reliability over the raw versions of those and other statistics.
DRA has equal descriptive power to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and offers much improved reliability and run prediction. DRA is park, platoon, framing, and opponent-adjusted, and is scaled to follow the distribution of RA9. From 2008-onward, it includes specific characteristics of the subject pitch, as tracked by PitchInfo. It also includes the pitcherâ€™s command runs (from CSAA), basestealing runs (SRAA and TRAA), and errant runs (EPAA).
While it’d be tempting to clickbait Arrieta’s current DRA, we prefer to take a closer look at it.
The extremely detailed dive into this year’s DRA, for the extremely detailed among you.
Deserved Run Average is ready to check in for the 2016 season. This year brings a few fun changes.
A further explanation of the reasons Deserved Run Average is designed as it is and works as it does.
How a mystery that began with R.A. Dickey ended with a new, more precise way of measuring catcher performance.
Opening the black box–which isn’t a black box at all–to illuminate Justin Verlander’s brilliance this year.
And an explanation of random effects vs. fixed effects.
Using DRA to determine 2015’s biggest over- and under-achievers.
Why DRA is the best stat for picking Cy Young Award winners and who those winners should be as of now