Posts Tagged ‘DRA’

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DRA -- Deserved Run Average (DRA) uses a collection of multilevel models to estimate the most likely contributions of pitchers to the run-scoring that occurs around them. Unlike other component metrics, DRA considers (and adjusts) for park, opponent, and, when helpful, framing, temperature, and pitch type as well. DRA achieves significant improved reliability over both raw pitcher statistics (like ERA) and other pitcher run estimators. DRA estimates include uncertainty estimates, making it easier to compare players to one another and to appreciate the stability of DRA's estimates, even early on in the season. In general, a pitcher's DRA, plus or minus one standard deviation (DRA_SD) encompasses at least 70% of the "true" DRA values for that pitcher.

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Prospectus Feature: DRA 2016: Challenging the Citadel of DIPS

by Jonathan Judge | July 22, 2016

With DRA, solving BABIP–and other reasons to be excited about what we’re measuring.

Team Chemistry: Explaining the DRA-Beaters

by John Choiniere | June 26, 2016

The Cubs’ pitchers are on a historical DRA-beating pace. Are there some factors that explain why some teams do this?

Prospectus Feature: Overcoming Negativity

by Jonathan Judge | May 23, 2016

DRA in depth: Finding a run-expectancy curve that would eliminate the negative DRA.

DRA 2016: The Arrieta Problem

by Jonathan Judge | May 06, 2016

While it’d be tempting to clickbait Arrieta’s current DRA, we prefer to take a closer look at it.

DRA 2016: DRA Reloaded, in Depth (Part I)

by Jonathan Judge | May 06, 2016

The extremely detailed dive into this year’s DRA, for the extremely detailed among you.

DRA 2016: DRA Returns!

by Jonathan Judge | May 06, 2016

Deserved Run Average is ready to check in for the 2016 season. This year brings a few fun changes.

Best of BP 2015: DRA: An In-Depth Discussion

by BP Stats Team and Jonathan Judge | December 29, 2015

A further explanation of the reasons Deserved Run Average is designed as it is and works as it does.

Prospectus Feature: Passed Balls and Wild Pitches: Getting It Right

by Jonathan Judge | November 09, 2015

How a mystery that began with R.A. Dickey ended with a new, more precise way of measuring catcher performance.

Prospectus Feature: DRA and Linear Weights. And Justin Verlander.

by Jonathan Judge | October 12, 2015

Opening the black box–which isn’t a black box at all–to illuminate Justin Verlander’s brilliance this year.

BP Unfiltered: Classifying Park Factors for DRA

by Jonathan Judge | September 25, 2015

And an explanation of random effects vs. fixed effects.

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