We want to start disclosing uncertainty. Here’s how we want to calculate it.
One day I sat a dozen feet behind Maddux’s catcher as three Braves pitchers, all in a row, did their throwing sessions side-by-side. Lefty Steve Avery made his catcher’s glove explode with noise from his 95-mph fastball. His curve looked like it broke a foot-and-a-half. He was terrifying. Yet I could barely tell the difference…
Player value depends heavily on your assumptions, and particularly on how you decide to measure and compile a player’s supposed contribution.
DRA, examined through the lens of MLB’s surprising ERA leader.
What if you could have a metric that accurately describes what a pitcher did while also reliably forecasting the skills that pitcher would bring to the future?
Where do we go from here?
Kyle Hendricks might be a lot closer to Greg Maddux than he thinks.
Tunneling from Greg Maddux and Barry Zito to Kyle Hendricks and Rich Hill, and everything in between.
Greg Maddux was on to something, whether he knew it or not.