BAM admits that its “expected” statistics were never designed to predict anything. Does it matter?
DRA is ready to go for 2018, with several prominent innovations.
We want to start disclosing uncertainty. Here’s how we want to calculate it.
One day I sat a dozen feet behind Maddux’s catcher as three Braves pitchers, all in a row, did their throwing sessions side-by-side. Lefty Steve Avery made his catcher’s glove explode with noise from his 95-mph fastball. His curve looked like it broke a foot-and-a-half. He was terrifying. Yet I could barely tell the difference…
Player value depends heavily on your assumptions, and particularly on how you decide to measure and compile a player’s supposed contribution.
DRA, examined through the lens of MLB’s surprising ERA leader.
What if you could have a metric that accurately describes what a pitcher did while also reliably forecasting the skills that pitcher would bring to the future?
Where do we go from here?
Kyle Hendricks might be a lot closer to Greg Maddux than he thinks.