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August 13, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

Our Top 50 Dynasty League Prospects

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein


When Bret isn’t busy ruining our lives by creating the Bat Signal, he’s busy ranking things. Like, everything. I mean, look at this.


meme courtesy of @EricNeville

He actually made that ranking. It stunk.

Anyway, the Appels didn’t fall far from the tree (name humor) in this family, and sometimes we get the urge to rank things ourselves. Okay, fine, Ben gets the urge and I get a nervous breakdown. Nonetheless, what follows is at top 50 fantasy prospect ranking from each of us, and then an ensuing squabble about who did what wrong.

Enjoy.

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Fantasy,  Dynasty Leagues

27 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

grandslam28

trade probability: Vogelbach+Almora+ minor pieces for good pitcher enough? better or worse package than the samardja deal

Better question: who is most likely going to be left out of the Cubs starting lineup in a year or two that will likely be traded?

Aug 13, 2014 05:29 AM
rating: 0
 
Silverback38

Taillon. Is his placement on both of your rosters due to the injury or regardless of it? Curious if it is taken into consideration or does his overall skills regardless of health dictate his rankings amongst other starters…Wisler, Heaney, Owens….

Aug 13, 2014 05:42 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

For me, health was a big factor. He should be back around the start of next year, but some rehabs take longer than others, and he'll likely be on some sort of reduced innings workload. When I look at a guy like Alex Meyer, who also has #2 starter upside, I just couldn't bring myself to put Taillon above him. Same goes for Wisler in that respect. There's probably a little less ultimate ceiling, but as far as fantasy goes, PETCO evens them out and ability to contribute for a full season gives him an edge in my book. If Wisler is still down in July of 2015? Then I might prefer Taillon. There's so much we don't know, so this is just playing the odds for me.

Aug 13, 2014 07:53 AM
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

I've never been quite as high on Taillon as some others -- don't see a fantasy ace, or maybe even a fantasy No. 2. Add in his health, and he drops behind pitchers with similar or even slightly lesser upsides.

Aug 13, 2014 08:02 AM
 
bobbygrace

Differences of opinion are great! What informs your different take on the relative value of Raimel Tapia, Nick Williams, and Josh Bell vis-a-vis the midseason top 50 rankings of Jason Parks and company? Does it all have to do with ETA?

Aug 13, 2014 07:32 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

The biggest thing here is that it's a fantasy ranking. Tapia's greatest advantage might be that he could stick in CF, but that's mostly irrelevant to us in the fantasy realm. If we're comparing this to a mid-season top 50, it should be Bret Sayre's rankings.

Aug 13, 2014 07:55 AM
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

Yep. Bell is closest and has the most power, so he's slightly ahead of the other two. You can flip Williams and Tapia and get no strong disagreement from me, but I've seen Williams in person and fell in love, so here we are. I'd expect more pop from Williams and a higher average from Tapia, ultimately.

Aug 13, 2014 08:01 AM
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I'm so proud. /sheds a tear

Aug 13, 2014 08:50 AM
 
cnote66

I think the owners of Liriano will need to be patient - he is a notorious slow starter.

Aug 13, 2014 09:17 AM
rating: 0
 
ravenight

I'm curious about the process you guys use to put a list like this together.

Do you start with a previous ranking (say, Brett's mid-season list, or the preseason one) and a list of guys who've impressed you that you'd like to include, and then go top-down, comparing players 1-1 (or removing guys who "graduated") and looking for places to slot in your extra guys?

Do you start with a much longer list like a top 250 and group the players into tiers, then refine the individual positions within tiers? Are the tiers based on overall ability, or do you break out by profiles like OFs, IFs, Cs, SPs, or by dominant tool and later stitch the list back together?

Aug 13, 2014 09:41 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

I make lists every off-season and used a combination of that list, Bret's list, Bret's mid-season update and some of my own notes to cobble this together. The longest I've ever gone is Top 200.

Aug 13, 2014 13:26 PM
 
ravenight

I had some more specific questions, now that I've gone back to look at Brett's list:

You both have OT and Bryant above Buxton. Is this a preference for proximity, or have you seen something in the past month that either downgrades Buxton or upgrades the other two? Is Buxton still a "perennial top-5 pick" ceiling?

Likewise, Noah Syndergaard is up about 4 spots, while Sano is down 5 on your lists relative to Brett's. Is that recency bias, has Syndergaard shown something a lot more in the past month to get the upgrade? Has Sano lost ground, or would the injury have made him lower for you guys even last month?

Aug 13, 2014 12:20 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Re: Taveras/Bryant -- Taveras' bump up for me is because Allen Craig was traded, opening up playing time for him, and because I still believe in the ceiling. He's producing now and has extreme value in the long term. Bryant is my power fetish showing through. Buxton's promotion to Double-A is nice but Bryant might be a better pure hitter than we imagine and that's only going to enhance his already prodigious power. Buxton still has the same ceiling, but he's got to stay healthy to do it, and he's still a ways away having just reached Double-A.

Re: Syndergaard -- I think that's a pure disagreement between Bret and I (I won't speak for Ben). I declared Syndergaard my top pitching prospect prior to the season, and while he's struggled some with health, he's healthy now and I have no problem with him assuming that top spot. I think he can contribute as soon as the Mets let him and it's my opinion that that contribution will exceed whatever Walker gives the Ms, and Bradley the DBacks. Both of those guys have suffered some injuries this season, and neither is pitching at the major league level, which set me back to my ranking coming into the season, with Syndergaard on top.

Aug 13, 2014 12:25 PM
 
username49

Hunter Harvey a no show on both lists. Was this because the elbow or more about proximity to the bigs? My initial reaction was that it is understandable to leave him off, but after browsing through some of the other pitchers ranked ahead of him, I'm now a little surprised he was snubbed. What gives?

Aug 13, 2014 13:22 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

Would've been in the next ~10 for me. Injury played a role, ya. Distance from majors, too. I preferred Stewart even before the injury though.

Aug 13, 2014 13:28 PM
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

I briefly considered Harvey but I'd ask you instead to make the case for him as a Low-A arm that is shut down for the season? What's his reasonable timetable to the majors? Add in the injury, and I'm not sure what his case for inclusion is. I like Harvey a lot, and I see the possibility for two 65 grade pitches, and *maybe* an average changeup. if that changeup isn't consistently fringe-average or better though, he's well below his ceiling. There's too much risk and he's too far away for me to make the case for him on the top 50.

Aug 13, 2014 13:29 PM
 
username49

As weird as this sounds, props to Craig on the addition of Finnegan. I would have completely overlooked him, but he seems very deserving.

Aug 13, 2014 13:25 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Ha, thanks. He's a personal favorite of mine and I was dying to put him on. Stewart might deserve the nod more, but already at Double-A... Finnegan was either getting 50 or getting written about below.

Aug 13, 2014 13:30 PM
 
Duranimal

Love these lists. I'm surprised, though, that both have a pitcher like Walker ranked higher than a position player like Seager. Due to all the variables, I'd rank a position player over a pitcher almost every time.

Aug 13, 2014 18:27 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

One has pitched, and is on the verge of pitching in the majors, while the other has 19 games in the upper minors. I felt my ranking of Seager was aggressive but justifiable. I'm not sure how I could have slotted him ahead of Walker, especially with a potential move to 3rd base in his future.

Aug 13, 2014 18:30 PM
 
Duranimal

It will be interesting when Seager is called up. Could be sooner than we all think.

Aug 13, 2014 18:52 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Sure, but that's just conjecture and not based on any precedent the Dodgers have showed. They were slow to promote him to Double-A, even, so I'm not sure why they'd have the quick trigger now. Were he at Triple-A, or reportedly on the verge of a callup, I might well have him ahead of Walker. As it stands, one spot is hardly anything.

Aug 13, 2014 18:56 PM
 
Duranimal

Also, wouldn't the Mariners trade Walker for Seager in a blink of an eye?

Aug 13, 2014 18:56 PM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

...

no? That depends a lot on context and what the team needs. They're fairly deep in pitching, so perhaps they would. This is a fantasy prospect ranking, so whether an MLB team would trade one for the other isn't particularly relevant.

Aug 13, 2014 18:58 PM
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

This suggests to me that you think Seager is a vastly superior prospect to Walker. I don't think that's a view many people share.

Aug 14, 2014 05:56 AM
 
DeathSpeculum

wow, piscotty seems crazy high. am I undervaluing him? I look at fringe top 100 guys like moya, demeritte and Francisco meija and kinda prfer them. obviously picsotty is closer, it just doesn't seem all that sexy. little to no movement here.

Aug 19, 2014 08:01 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

I do indeed believe you are crazy if you prefer Moya, Demeritte or Mejia to Piscotty, yes.

Aug 19, 2014 08:02 AM
 
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Premium Article The Call-Up: Rymer Lir... (08/13)
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