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09-20

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What You Need to Know: Dingers For Everyone
by
Nicolas Stellini

09-20

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Banjo Hitter: Randy, Rickey, and Teams on the Rise
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-20

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Cold Takes: The Politics of Big Sexy
by
Patrick Dubuque

09-20

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Short Relief: Noise
by
Matt Ellis, Nathan Bishop and Emma Baccellieri

09-20

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Deep League Report: Week 25
by
Scooter Hotz

09-20

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27

Baseball Prospectus News: Subscription Price Change
by
BP Staff

09-19

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BP Bronx
by
Martin Nolan

09-19

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3

What You Need to Know: A Tale of Two Teams in One City
by
Stacey Gotsulias

09-19

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1

Rubbing Mud: The Sinker Doesn't Play Well With Others
by
Matthew Trueblood

09-19

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3

Baseball Therapy: Confessions of a Fake Manager: April
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-19

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BP En Espanol: Tuneles y secuencias: aplicaciones en el campo
by
Kate Morrison and Jeff Long

09-19

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4

Short Relief: A Long September
by
Kate Preusser and Trevor Strunk

09-19

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Expert FAAB Review: Week 25
by
Mike Gianella

09-18

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Closer Report: Week 25
by
Matt Collins

09-18

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1

What You Need to Know: Sometimes You Win, Sometimes You Lose (Sometimes You Win Again)
by
Ashley Varela

09-18

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Prospectus Feature: Tunnels and Sequencing: Applications on the Field
by
Kate Morrison and Jeff Long

09-18

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2

Short Relief: The Cracks in Our Stars
by
Holly Wendt, Meg Rowley and James Fegan

09-18

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8

Flu-Like Symptoms: Walk-Off Winners
by
Rob Mains

09-18

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Minor League Update: Games of September 15th-17th
by
Mark Anderson

09-18

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3

Monday Morning Ten Pack: 2018 Breakout Candidates
by
BP Prospect Staff

09-15

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1

Players Prefer Presentation: An Informed State of Joy
by
Meg Rowley

09-15

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4

BP En Espanol: Una Oportunidad
by
Jarrett Seidler

09-15

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What You Need to Know: All Of This Winning, I've Been Losing My Mind
by
Demetrius Bell

09-15

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1

Rubbing Mud: The Arrival of Kyle Gibson
by
Matthew Trueblood

09-15

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Circle Change: Bringing Mookie Betts Back to Earth
by
Zach Crizer

09-15

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1

Guarding The Lines: One Shot
by
Jarrett Seidler

09-15

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9

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 24
by
Mark Barry

09-15

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Free Agent Watch: Week 24
by
George Bissell and Mark Barry

09-15

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1

Short Relief: Introducing Dodgers X
by
Matt Sussman, Kate Morrison and Mary Craig

09-15

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Out-of-Nowhere Power-Hitting Rookie
by
Matt Collins

09-15

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1

Minor League Update: Games of September 14
by
Steve Givarz

09-14

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The Prospectus Hit List: September 14, 2017
by
Ben Carsley

09-14

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0

BP En Espanol: El camino dificil a los 100
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-14

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What You Need to Know: Streak of all Streaks
by
Ben Diamond

09-14

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12

Flu-Like Symptoms: One Entire Season of Baseball From the 1960s (Part 4)
by
Rob Mains

09-14

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1

Transaction Analysis: The Slow Death of Hope
by
Bryan Grosnick

09-14

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5

Eyewitness Accounts: September 14, 2017
by
BP Prospect Staff

09-14

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Minor League Update: Games of September 13th
by
Mark Anderson

09-14

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Short Relief: The Man Who Shouldn't Have Been There
by
Rachael McDaniel and Zack Moser

09-14

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3

Banjo Hitter: 100 The Hard Way
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-13

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BP En Espanol: La ultima noche de la dinastia de los Tigers que nunca fue
by
Ben Carsley

09-13

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2

What You Need to Know: Twenty!
by
Nicolas Stellini

09-13

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The Call-Up: Willie Calhoun
by
JH Schroeder

09-13

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5

Let It Eat: The Last Night of the Tigers Dynasty That Wasn't
by
Ben Carsley

09-13

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8

Flu-Like Symptoms: One Entire Season of Baseball From the 1960s (Part 3)
by
Rob Mains

09-13

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4

Baseball Therapy: Confessions of a Fake Manager: The Set Up
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-13

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0

Short Relief: Ourselves, in Cheap Resin
by
Nathan Bishop, Matt Ellis and Jason Wojciechowski

09-13

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4

Deep League Report: Week 24
by
Scooter Hotz

09-13

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Minor League Update: Games of September 12th
by
Wilson Karaman

09-12

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BP En Espanol: Analisis del experto en FAAB
by
Mike Gianella

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MLB sets the single-season home run record, Chase Headley gets hit by a pitch, Max Scherzer shoves, and Johnny Cueto takes his time.

The Tuesday Takeaway

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What kind of teams improve by 25-plus games and what happens to those teams the next season?

PECOTA projected the Twins for 78 wins this season, which seemed so optimistic and caused so many “huh?!” responses coming off a disastrous 59-103 season that I felt the need to write an entire article explaining the number. (The projection was even higher initially, but dropped from 80 to 78 following Trevor May’s second-ending elbow injury.) I expressed skepticism, going step-by-step through the individual projections and pegging the Twins more in the range of 75 wins, but then concluded my “PECOTA and the Twins, Sitting in a Tree” article from mid-February by writing:

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Bartolo Colon, Bill Clinton, and the arbitrary nature of the universe.

The long, strange odyssey of Bartolo Colon is nearly complete. After 523 starts, four All-Star games, and one Cy Young award, the far shore of home approaches.

It’s been a rocky six months for the man they call Big Sexy: a disastrous 8.14 ERA in 13 starts for the Braves, followed by a pink slip, only to serve 10 competent starts in Minnesota as that team continues its unlikely push toward the postseason. The peripherals beneath are nearly identical, with a DRA split of 6.40/7.37 and the usual suspects of HR%, BABIP, and strand rate fluctuating from one extreme to the other.

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The theme here, accidentally but most assuredly, is noise.

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September 20, 2017 6:00 am

Deep League Report: Week 25

0

Scooter Hotz

If you need to accumulate innings, you will find some prime candidates here.

Picking the NL-only pitchers to feature in the Deep League Report this week was easy. I just went with the three guys I bought in my deep NL-only home league Sunday night in a possibly futile attempt to rack up enough innings to meet my league’s minimum. Whom did I grab? Keep reading.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

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Back in 2003, the highest-paid player in baseball was Rangers shortstop Alex Rodriguez, at $22 million. This year, 24 players are making at least as much as Rodriguez did in 2003, led by Clayton Kershaw at $33 million. Back in 2003, the average MLB team payroll was $70 million, with only the Yankees above $120 million and 14 teams under $60 million. This year, the average MLB team payroll is $150 million, no team is under $80 million, and the “small-payroll” Royals out-spend the 2003 Yankees. Even the MLB minimum salary has risen from $300,000 in 2003 to $535,000 today, an increase of 78 percent.

It won’t stir up quite as much excitement (or potential for insult) as the “Guess Your Weight” game at state fairs and amusement parks, but if you step right up! we can guess the exact dollar amount you first paid for a subscription to Baseball Prospectus. The answer is $39.95. We know that because our subscription price has not changed since at least 2003 (and possibly ever). We’ve decided to raise BP’s subscription price for the first time. Just a little bit, from $39.95 to $45.95, with a similar increase to our super-premium subscription package.

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September 19, 2017 9:22 am

BP Bronx

0

Martin Nolan

Midseason trades can be tricky devils.

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

The Monday Takeaway

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Alternative ideas about the disappearance of the sinker.

Earlier this month, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote about a global trend in pitching throughout MLB. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs (as a percentage of total pitches) than ever before, at least for the decade during which we have reliable data. What Sullivan found is that, while it’s true when considering fastballs as an undifferentiated set, it really doesn’t capture the whole truth. He looked at Pitch Info, which (correctly) tags four-seam and two-seam fastballs (the latter often being called, and being called from here onward in this piece, sinkers) as separate pitches, and found that the loss of fastballs is almost all sinkers.

The league is increasingly selecting for pitchers who use four-seam heat to work up in the zone, frustrating batters’ efforts to attack the ball on an uphill plane and get it in the air—or at least, that’s the theory Sullivan puts forward for the shift. I mostly agree. There’s no doubt in my mind that the move toward four-seamers and away from sinkers is at least partially in response to batters making changes geared toward handling those sinkers, and punishing them. (Recall that, as recently as 2013-2014, Ray Searage’s Pirates were at the cutting edge of run prevention because they so consistently pounded hitters with sinkers that ran in on their hands or nipped the bottom of the strike zone; there has been ample incentive for batters to adjust in turn.)

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September 19, 2017 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Confessions of a Fake Manager: April

3

Russell A. Carleton

Follow along as SaberManager™ leads the 2005 Chicago Cubs through the first month of their season.

Previously in this series:
Confessions of a Fake Manager: The Set Up


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¿Que nos puede ensenar el auge (y resurgimiento) de Dallas Keuchel sobre usar tuneles de lanzamiento?

(More information on BP En Espanol.)

Traducción por Carlos Pérez

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Kate Preusser and Trevor Strunk on the feeling that it's all a lot of oysters, but no pearls

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