CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

BP Articles 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

02-25

comment icon

0

BP Toronto
by
Matt Gwin

02-25

comment icon

0

BP Mets
by
Bryan Grosnick

02-25

comment icon

0

BP South Side
by
Collin Whitchurch

02-25

comment icon

2

Players Prefer Presentation: Do Robot Umps Dream of Automated Yelling?
by
Meg Rowley

02-24

comment icon

0

The -Only League Landscape: National League Starting Pitchers
by
Scooter Hotz

02-24

comment icon

9

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part II
by
Mike Gianella

02-24

comment icon

1

The Adjuster: Starting Pitchers
by
Eric Roseberry

02-24

comment icon

2

Rubbing Mud: Mr. Sale's Arithmetic Class
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-24

comment icon

6

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Pitchers
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-24

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: Smell the Money
by
Demetrius Bell

02-23

comment icon

5

The Quinton: Sending and Receiving Trade Offers, and the Focusing Illusion
by
Jeff Quinton

02-23

comment icon

6

Cold Takes: A Single Ray of Hope
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-23

comment icon

17

Deep, But Playable: Not to Be GliBB
by
Craig Goldstein

02-23

comment icon

10

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part I
by
Mike Gianella

02-23

comment icon

47

2017 Prospects: The Top 101 Dynasty League Prospects
by
Ben Carsley and Bret Sayre

02-23

comment icon

2

Welcome to Splitsville: Starting Pitchers
by
Tim Finnegan

02-23

comment icon

2

State of the Position: Starting Pitchers
by
George Bissell

02-22

comment icon

5

Transaction Analysis: The Old Blue and Gold
by
Bryan Grosnick

02-22

comment icon

1

Rumor Roundup: Blanket Approval
by
Emma Baccellieri

02-22

comment icon

6

Rubbing Mud: Carlos Martinez, Tunnels, and PECOTA
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-22

comment icon

6

Notes from the Field: Cal State Fullerton v. Stanford
by
Wilson Karaman

02-22

comment icon

0

Fantasy Players to Target: Starting Pitchers
by
BP Fantasy Staff

02-22

comment icon

7

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 95
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-22

comment icon

4

Early ADP Analysis: Starting Pitchers
by
Matt Collins

02-21

comment icon

0

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Jackie Bradley vs. Joc Pederson
by
Greg Wellemeyer

02-21

comment icon

2

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Hitters
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-21

comment icon

2

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Long-Term Outfielders
by
BP Fantasy Staff

02-21

comment icon

8

Dynasty League Positional Rankings: The Top 125 Outfielders
by
Bret Sayre

02-21

comment icon

2

Cold Takes: Smoak on the Roster
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-21

comment icon

7

Baseball Therapy: Is Win Probability Broken?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-20

comment icon

3

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Outfielders
by
BP Fantasy Staff

02-20

comment icon

3

Prospectus Feature: Arbitration Clash
by
Jarrett Seidler

02-20

comment icon

8

Monday Morning Ten Pack: Candidates for Next Year's 101
by
BP Prospect Staff

02-20

comment icon

1

Rumor Roundup: Shooting for the Moon
by
Ashley Varela

02-20

comment icon

0

Deep, But Playable: Didi Gregorius, Power Hitter?
by
Craig Goldstein

02-20

comment icon

0

The -Only League Landscape: American League Outfielders
by
Mike Gianella

02-20

comment icon

9

Flu-Like Symptoms: Fit to be Tied
by
Rob Mains

02-18

comment icon

17

Polling Our Readers
by
Bret Sayre

02-18

comment icon

0

BP Mets
by
Jarrett Seidler

02-18

comment icon

0

BP Kansas City
by
Clark Fosler

02-18

comment icon

0

BP Boston
by
Brett Cowett

02-18

comment icon

0

BP South Side
by
Mark Primiano

02-17

comment icon

1

Player Profile: Keon Broxton
by
Wilson Karaman

02-17

comment icon

3

Rumor Roundup: Miami Rollercoaster
by
Demetrius Bell

02-17

comment icon

4

Fantasy Players to Target: Long-Term Outfielders
by
BP Fantasy Staff

02-17

comment icon

8

Dynasty League Positional Rankings Continued: Outfielders on the Ocean Floor
by
Wilson Karaman

02-17

comment icon

6

Players Prefer Presentation: Breaking Lind
by
Meg Rowley

02-17

comment icon

4

The View From Behind The Backstop: Gabriel Ynoa Transaction Analysis
by
Jeffrey Paternostro

02-17

comment icon

0

Player Profile: Odubel Herrera
by
Matt Collins

02-17

comment icon

6

Liner Notes: NRI Watch: American League
by
Bryan Grosnick

<< Previous Article Entries No More Article Entries

February 25, 2017 10:42 am

BP Toronto

0

Matt Gwin

Converting a reliever to a starting role takes time, but it might be worth it for the Blue Jays.

Paste post text here

Read the full article...

February 25, 2017 10:37 am

BP Mets

0

Bryan Grosnick

PECOTA still has faith in Travis a'Arnaud, but do Mets fans?

Paste post text here

Read the full article...

February 25, 2017 10:35 am

BP South Side

0

Collin Whitchurch

Chicago is retiring Mark Buehrle's number this summer. A look back at what made him so good.

Paste post text here

Read the full article...

Imagining what becomes of a home plate umpire in an automated strike zone world.

Until this week, it didn't actively occur to me that there would still be a human being standing behind home plate even if MLB put in place an automated strike zone. It did sort of dimly, because of course there still has to be a guy back there. Someone has to call close plays at home, and balks, and grant time, and sweep up. But if I’m honest, my mind’s eye envisioned a literal robot, dressed up in the chest protector (why does it need a chest protector?), bleep blorp blurping its way through games. The degree to which an automated zone could alter the contest between pitchers and batters seemed momentous enough; I guess I just thought it was robots from there on out.

In his flurry of potential rule changes, commissioner Rob Manfred made clear that the implementation of robot umps was a ways out; the technology, to his mind, isn’t reliable enough. We tend to focus on an automated zone at two points in time: the moment when we flip the switch, and the later moment when unknowable but expected unintended consequences begin to present themselves. Less time is spent on the actual workings of the thing. Not how does PITCHf/x work, or how and when do they measure each batter’s strike zone, or what effect will it have on the offensive environment? How does the call actually go?

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 24, 2017 10:51 am

The -Only League Landscape: National League Starting Pitchers

0

Scooter Hotz

Scanning the menu of senior-circuit fantasy rotation arms.

Ah, starting pitching. Poker players have their bad beat stories, fantasy baseball players have their stories about the aces they bought who failed spectacularly. Roto players who go cheap on pitching habitually are usually fighting the previous war, trying to avoid buying a big-ticket starter because they bought one at some point in the past, only to see that purchase sink their season.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 24, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part II

9

Mike Gianella

Rounding out our rotation-arm rankings with the bottom two tiers.

To read the previous editions in this series, follow the links below:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 24, 2017 6:00 am

The Adjuster: Starting Pitchers

1

Eric Roseberry

A look at which hurlers see their values rise and fall in formats that count K-BB% or quality starts.

This week’s Adjuster turns its attention from position players, and focuses on starting pitchers in alternate fantasy formats. In particular, the focus of this article will be on changes in pitcher value in leagues that consider either K-BB% or Quality Starts. There are several other stats that can come in to play when dealing with starters, and I’d be happy to answer questions about those in the comments.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

February 24, 2017 6:00 am

Rubbing Mud: Mr. Sale's Arithmetic Class

2

Matthew Trueblood

Will the Red Sox's new ace continue to trade strikeouts for fewer deep counts?

I think it's something close to common knowledge that Chris Sale pitched to contact last season. Sale talked about it. White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper talked about it. It showed up pretty plainly in the numbers, as Sale racked up a career-high in innings pitched and led the American League in complete games. The idea was a simple one: Sale is good enough to get batters out at an elite rate even without striking them out at an elite rate.

It was true, too. Sale fanned just a hair over a quarter of opposing hitters, instead of nearly a third of them. He posted the worst FIP of his career by a fair margin and gave up more home runs (27) than he ever had. Meanwhile, opposing batters reached base on balls in play at the lowest rate of Sale's starting career. All told, DRA and cFIP do indicate that Sale was slightly worse last season than in the two previous campaigns, but the extra innings he was able to pitch offset that and made him more valuable.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Which young pitchers does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

PECOTA assigns each player a “breakout rate” for the upcoming season based on their odds of beating their established level of recent performance by at least 20 percent, with historical player comps serving as an important factor. Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides.

Read the full article...

Texas talks extension with Rougned Odor, Jason Marquis eyes a comeback, and Jake Peavy puts baseball on hold.

Rangers, Odor can smell extension

Last summer, the Rangers and Rougned Odor both approached the negotiating table to talk about a contract extension, but the talks reportedly stalled when the Rangers offered him $35 million over six years. That’s “Gregory Polanco” money, but it appears that the Rangers have decided it’s time to give Odor “Jason Kipnis” money, since Jon Heyman is reporting that Texas has offered the second baseman a six-year deal around $52.5 million.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 23, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part I

10

Mike Gianella

Stacking up the rotation arms in the top three tiers of our rankings for 2017.

To read the previous editions in this series, follow the links below:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

A new list for a new year. From Yoan Moncada to Anderson Tejeda, it's the cream of the crop in dynasty leagues in 2017.

We decided to do things a little differently this year.

For the past few seasons, we have published separate top-101 dynasty lists. Largely, these lists have been similar, with the exception of chunky first basemen ranking much higher on Bret’s iteration and Ben giving dramatic boosts to any middle infielder who can run even a little. For the 2017 list, we decided to balance those biases by creating separate rankings, compiling them and then debating minutia for like a month over gchat. Fantasy prospect rankings are nothing if not scientific.

This is an interesting year for said rankings. There’s less premium talent at the top, and even the top-20 gets pretty thin near the end. But there’s more depth than there was last year, with a solid, meaty middle chunk of the list that’s chock-full of OF4s, SP5s and the like. There might not be a ton of prospects who will win you a dynasty league in this year’s iteration, but there are plenty who can help you along the way. Another consequence of that lack of premium talent? We got a little aggressive in trying to predict who the next generation of dynasty studs will be, bumping up some players with extreme risk/reward profiles. If that’s not your thing, feel free to adjust down, but if you can get in on the next Victor Robles or Ronald Acuna, well, you’ll want to.

There are a few list-specific disclaimers to go over before we jump in. Again, these rankings are for fantasy purposes only, and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. Additionally, home parks need to be factored in, just as when we are talking about a major-league player. We can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organization, so while it is not a heavy consideration, it is reflected. Most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup.

Read the full article...

<< Previous Article Entries No More Article Entries