Brad Penny is taking his talents to Japan to play for the Softbank Hawks. But that is not the real story here—the real story is that the Hawks will pay Penny $4 million in 2012, and offer him the potential to earn $3.5 million more in incentives. The deal also carries a $4.5 million mutual option for 2013.

By major-league standards, Penny has become a shadow of his former self. In 31 starts last season, he struck out a paltry 74 batters in 181 2/3 innings and walked 62. His 9.2 K-percentage was dead last among qualifying starters. Penny turns 34 in May and is now purely a contact pitcher with the ability to eat innings, but without the ability to do so productively. He has not been worth more than 1.0 WARP since 2007.

More...

Late last month, ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reported that the Mets are facing the largest one-year payroll cut in major-league history, at least in terms of total dollars. With owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz deprived of the profits they derived from decades of investing with Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff, and struggling to find minority partners willing to provide a quick infusion of capital, the team is hemorrhaging money and facing a growing mountain of debt. According to general manager Sandy Alderson, the Mets lost $70 million last year, and made no real attempt to retain pending free agents Carlos Beltran (who was traded in midseason) or Jose Reyes (who departed for the Marlins in December). Barring even one additional midlevel signing, they could become the first team to drop $50 million in salary from one Opening Day to the next.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Twenty-seven. Oh, the age of 27. As you might be aware, age 27 gets a lot of attention in fantasy baseball circles, often cited as a “magic” number when a hitter reaches his physical peak and is most likely to break out. It doesn’t take much effort to stumble upon a fantasy writer who discusses this theory, heralding the upcoming season’s crop of age-27ers.

The theory goes that because a player is reaching his physical peak, he is most likely to have a career year during his age-27 season. Unfortunately, most of the support offered for this theory comes in the form of conjecture or anecdotal evidence. I wrote an article last offseason at THT that examined whether age 27 actually is the prime age for breakouts. Unsurprisingly, I found that it wasn’t. Of course, this won’t stop people from continuing to write about it, as they see a player like Rickie Weeks post a 29-home run season in 2010 at the age of 27 and assume that the age is somehow magical. But these people ignore the age-27 players who stumble, such as Adam Lind in 2010, and the players who break out at other ages, such as Jose Bautista at age 29. Anecdotal evidence is never sufficient and can often lead to season-sinking assumptions.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Ever since I was introduced to Bill James’ works in the mid-'80s, I have wanted to learn as much as possible about baseball so that I can better understand and appreciate it. If you're reading this, you're probably wired the same way. It might be easier to watch without thinking so much, but we don't know how to do that.

I have a similar problem with music. I started playing guitar at the same time I started reading James (correlation does not equal causation), and although I'm a bit of a hack, I've earned enough over the years from my efforts to attract the U.S. government's attention.

More...

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

“Scratch and Dent” sales at stores can present some excellent bargains for shoppers, as you can get fully functional appliances at a discount because some handler was not careful during the delivery process.  We had a hellacious hail storm in the central Florida area in 1994 that caused many local car dealerships to scream in anger as their inventory suddenly looked like the golf balls at a miniature golf course. The dealerships quickly decided to throw their own “Scratch and Dent” sale, releasing cars that were brand new under the hood but with dents from the baseball-sized hail at significant discounts to those willing to overlook the aesthetics of the vehicle and focus on brand new engines and interiors.

More...

ADP could stand for “Arlington's Drinking Problem” this week, as rumors surface about megastar Josh Hamilton being seen imbibing Monday. Also, reader requests for Craig and Campana, and a look at someone who won't be kept in any leagues but may be worth an earlier pick than is assumed.

Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers (ADP 30)
Shallow (30 keepers): NO
Medium (60 keepers): YES
Deep (90 keepers): YES
AL-only (60 keepers): YES
Super Deep (200 keepers): YES

More...

Having reached the age of 41, I can state honestly that I have never been drunk or high. I drink socially and consume the odd glass of wine at home but have never had more than I could handle and have never touched a joint or any medication that wasn’t prescribed by a doctor or available over the counter at a drug store. When I tell people this, they either don’t believe me or ask, in so many words, if I am some kind of abstemious, moralistic prude, a question that I always feel like answering by gesturing towards my exceedingly ample body and asking, “Does this suggests abstemiousness to you?”

In fact, I have nothing against tying one on (with whatever substance—our definitions of legal and illegal drugs are highly arbitrary) if that’s what you choose to do; it’s your body, and so long as you abuse it in such a way that you’re not hurting anyone else, I don’t see where I have any kick coming. My reasons for not overdoing it stem from one of my earliest memories. At a very young age, I was introduced to a man who was trying to put his life back together after a long period of drug abuse. He seemed very old to me at the time, the way all adults seem old to young children, but thinking back, I realize he was probably no older than 25. He simply looked much older. More frightening though, was his dissipated air and distracted way of talking. “He… left long spaces… between words… and tended to trail off… in the middle of what he was…” Most of his attempts at speaking ended with him staring off into space.

More...

As spring training approaches, almost every player looking for a bounce-back season claims to be in the best shape of his life. Pirates infielder Casey McGehee is no exception; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Bill Brink tweeted on Thursday that the first-year Bucco has lost nearly 25 pounds and “cut [his] body fat in half.” The premise may be as clichéd as any in baseball, but there is reason to believe that McGehee is not whistlin’ Dixie.

The 29-year-old McGehee will begin the 2012 season with his third NL Central organization in the last five years. A 10^th-round pick of the Cubs in 2003, he was claimed off waivers by the Brewers after a cup of coffee in 2008, and unexpectedly took off when handed the keys to the third-base job midway through the next season. McGehee hit .301/.360/.499 in his first year with Milwaukee, then followed that up with a .285/.337/.464 campaign in 2010, contributing 2.0 and 2.6 WARP in those seasons, respectively. But the wheels came off last year, and he was traded to the Pirates for reliever Jose Veras in December.

More...

Previous Rankings: 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008

More...

​While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

It's hard to know what to expect from a free agent from Cuba, but as we wait to see what Cespedes will be, we can take a look at how his countrymen fared courtesy of the John Perrotto article reproduced below, which originally ran on February 15, 2007.

More...