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January 10, 2013

Pebble Hunting

When the Teams That Don't Have Hall of Famers Yet Will Have Hall of Famers

by Sam Miller

Without a Hall of Fame inductee this year, there will remain seven franchises that have never had a Hall of Famer go in wearing their hat. One of those teams—the Astros—got ever so close this year, and even in next year’s oversaturated ballot, Craig Biggio stands an excellent chance of being inducted; it would be a surprise if he and Bagwell aren’t both in by this time in 2020. When will the other six franchises get to celebrate their first Hall of Famer?

Angels
Earliest it could happen: 2017
Vladimir Guerrero comes up a bit short on JAWS, he didn’t meet any of the big milestones ending in double zeroes, and you can find a fair number of corner guys who out-WARPed him. But he does well by the Keltner standards and his MVP shares, memorable style of play, and Teh Fear suggest he’ll get plenty of support from future voters. But it’s almost a coin flip whose hat he would wear:

• Expo: 1,004 games, four All-Star games, 234 home runs, 36.3 WARP
• Angel: 846 games, four All-Star games, 173 homers, 25.1 WARP, MVP award, three top-three MVP finishes, 29 postseason games

Latest it could happen: Around 2036
Quoting a piece from May,

Since 1950, five players have led their teams in WARP at age 20. They are Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson,Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez. If Trout, as a 20-year-old, can manage to produce more WARP than Pujols—and Trumbo, and Kendrick, whom he trails thus far—it would be about the finest thing you could ever say about a kid.

Trout didn’t just lead his team, he led baseball, by more than two wins. There are no sure things, but the only precedent for a modern player playing at an MVP level by the age of 20 and not making the Hall of Fame is Vada Pinson. Pinson, the one failure in the category, retired with more WARP than Jim Rice.  

Not out of the question, but lots of work and good luck necessary:
Mike Scioscia. A manager gets into the conversation when he wins a second World Series with a second core of players. If Scioscia’s Angels win the World Series this year, he would have the rings, the winning percentage, the reputation and plenty of years ahead to bolster his case. He’s only 54, though, and even if he gets there he might not beat Trout.
Jered Weaver. Not one of the half-dozen active pitchers you’d bet on right now, but hasn’t done anything to eliminate himself from contention, and plenty of players get in based on strong second decades. I found a newspaper article yesterday from July 1985 (a couple months after Morris turned 30) touting Jack Morris as a future Hall of Famer. It was interesting to me because I’ve always thought of the dumb Morris HOF case as being centered around that one start in the World Series and that arbitrary “most wins in the 1980s” stat. But, in fact, plenty of writers saw Morris as a Hall of Famer before either of those things. Anyway, through age-29:

• Morris: 107-75, 3.66, 110 ERA+, 10.2 WARP (!), two top-three Cy Young finishes
• Weaver: 102-52, 3.24, 128 ERA+, 19.8 WARP, two top-three Cy Young finishes

Diamondbacks
Earliest it could happen: 2015
My first instinct was that Randy Johnson would go in as a Mariner, based on longevity. But the gap between his accomplishments in Seattle and in Arizona is tremendous:

• Mariner: One Cy Young award, four top-three finishes, 266 starts, 128 ERA+, 
• Diamondback: Four consecutive Cy Young awards, 232 starts, 164 ERA+, perfect game, 20 Ks in nine innings, World Series MVP

Johnson’s second stint with the Diamondbacks, when he wasn’t much good and did little to add to his Hall of Fame case, probably adds enough to his Diamondbacks case.

Latest it could happen: Sometime between 100 million years and 10^10^56 years, depending on mankind’s ability to adapt.
There’s not really a next-likely candidate for Arizona, assuming Curt Schilling doesn’t wear a Diamondbacks hat if he goes in. Justin Upton is the best bet for a Hall of Fame career—disappointing as last season was, his 12.9 WARP through age 24 puts him on a pace with some Hall of Famers (Paul Molitor), some deserving Hall of Famers (Bobby Grich), and some not (Travis Fryman). Just based on similar WARPs at a similar age, Upton’s got about a 30 percent chance of making the Hall. Given the fortnightly trade rumors around him, though, the chances he goes in as a Diamondback are far lower.
The current WARP leaders in Diamondbacks history were either quickly rejected by the BBWAA or will be someday: Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley, Chris Young.

Rays
Earliest it could happen: 2029
Two years ago, Carl Crawford would have been a solid bet, right around the line that separates future Hall of Famers from non. But two lost years make this unlikely even if Crawford recovers his pre-Boston skills. Nine seasons at a four-win level would put him around Tim Raines in career WARP, and seven such seasons would have him in the Alomar-Biggio range. He’s 31.

Latest it could happen: 2033
Evan Longoria is about halfway to a Hall of Fame JAWS score, and it took him just five seasons. He’s 26, and his 26 career WARP put him behind most of the inner-circle Hall of Famers but ahead of the near-misses. There are obviously things that could go wrong, as Grady Sizemore (24 WARP through age 26) shows. And a HOF JAWS score doesn’t guarantee the Hall of Fame, particularly for most players with a great deal of value tied up in defense. But Longoria’s generally strong MVP finishes will buffer him against anonymous greatness.

Mariners
Earliest it could happen: 2016
Well, earliest it could happen is in 2015, if Randy Johnson goes in as a Mariner. Or 2014, if Edgar Martinez more than doubles his vote tally after four years of almost no movement. But otherwise, Ken Griffey, Jr. hits the ballot in 2016. Griffey and Jeff Bagwell were almost identical by WARP and were close on MVP shares, but where Bagwell is left off ballots by pearl-clutching PED-protest voters, Griffey’s evidence-free reputation for cleanness could inspire the opposite reaction.

Latest it could happen: 2016.
But if, supposing, that somehow Griffey doesn’t get in—if there’s a bombshell SI article linking him to HGH, or if 26 percent of voters follow through on a promise to shut out that entire generation of players—the Mariners won’t have to wait much longer. Ichiro is 39 now, and though a first-ballot snub wouldn’t be a surprise, he should be inducted within a decade.

Some work necessary:
Felix Hernandez has had almost the same career as Jered Weaver,

• Weaver: 102-52, 3.24, 128 ERA+, 19.8 WARP, two top-three Cy Young finishes
• Hernandez: 98-76, 3.22, 127 ERA+, 18.8 WARP, two top-three Cy Young finishes (one win)