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Jonah Keri 

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08-26

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The BP Wayback Machine: King Felix Arrives
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Jonah Keri

12-14

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The BP Wayback Machine: When Good GMs Go Bad
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Jonah Keri

08-10

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The BP Wayback Machine: Bill Geivett
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Jonah Keri

11-08

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The BP Wayback Machine: When Good GMs Go Bad
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Jonah Keri

06-13

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Prospectus Q&A: Dave Dombrowski
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Jonah Keri

05-24

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Prospectus Q&A: Bill Geivett
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Jonah Keri

05-10

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AL-Kings May Update
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Jonah Keri

05-05

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The Prince Is Dead
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Jonah Keri

04-19

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Prospectus Q&A: Matthew Silverman and Andrew Friedman
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Jonah Keri

03-21

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Who Are the AL-Kings?
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Jonah Keri

03-20

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2006--Setting the Stage
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Jonah Keri

03-09

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LABR of Love, v2006
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Jonah Keri

03-02

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Prospectus Q&A: Lee MacPhail IV
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Jonah Keri

02-06

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Prospectus Q&A: Mark Newman, Part Two
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Jonah Keri

02-01

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Prospectus Q&A: Mark Newman, Part One
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Jonah Keri

01-12

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What is Baseball Between the Numbers?
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Jonah Keri

11-16

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Blast from the Past: Ned Colletti Q&A
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Jonah Keri

11-11

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Blast from the Past: Kim Ng Q&A
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Jonah Keri

10-05

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Blast from the Past: Jon Daniels Q&A
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Jonah Keri

10-05

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox, 10/04/05
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Jonah Keri

09-30

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 9/29/05
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Jonah Keri

09-14

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 9/11/05
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Jonah Keri

09-06

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Prospectus Game of the Week: St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros, 9/4/05
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Jonah Keri

08-30

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays, 8/28/05
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Jonah Keri

08-24

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Kansas City Royals @ Oakland A's, 8/21/05
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Jonah Keri

08-15

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Florida Marlins @ San Francisco Giants, 8/13/05
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Jonah Keri

08-10

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Prospectus Game of the Week: King Felix Arrives
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Jonah Keri

08-03

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, 7/31/05
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Jonah Keri

07-26

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox, 7/24/05
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Jonah Keri

07-19

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7/17/05
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Jonah Keri

07-13

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees, 7/10/05
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Jonah Keri

07-05

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 7/1/05
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Jonah Keri

06-28

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, 6/26/05
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Jonah Keri

06-24

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Prospectus Game of the Week: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 6/22/05
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Jonah Keri

06-08

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6/5/05
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Jonah Keri

05-31

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles, 5/29/05
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Jonah Keri

05-24

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Prospectus Game of the Week: St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals, 5/22/05
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Jonah Keri

05-16

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Prospectus Q&A: John Schuerholz
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Jonah Keri

05-10

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, 5/8/05
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Jonah Keri

05-03

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 5/2/05
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Jonah Keri

04-25

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 4/24/05
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Jonah Keri

04-19

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Boston Red Sox, 4/17/05
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Jonah Keri

04-13

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Prospectus Game of the Week: Betting in Vegas, Saturday, April 9
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Jonah Keri

04-06

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Prospectus Game of the Week: New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds, 4/4/05
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Jonah Keri

04-01

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2005--Setting the Stage
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Jonah Keri

03-24

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Five Players to Watch in 2005
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Jonah Keri

03-14

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LABR of Love
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Jonah Keri

03-09

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Prospectus Game of the Week: A's-Angels, Sunday March 6
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Jonah Keri

02-23

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Prospectus Q&A: Jon Daniels
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Jonah Keri

10-24

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Prospectus Today: Game 1 Ringer
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Jonah Keri

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A classic BP piece on "what could one day be looked back upon as a slice of history."

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

On August 5, 2005, Baseball Prospectus published the following feature on some random Mariners game, chosen that week for Jonah Keri's Prospectus Game of the Week feature. Okay, not quite some random game. Felix Hernandez was making his first ever start in Seattle that day.

Read the full article...

Unhappy with the return your team's general manager received in a trade? Jonah offers one possible explanation.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Do GMs sometimes act in their own interests instead of their teams'? Jonah explored the possibility in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as an "Avoiding Dissonance" column on April 25, 2002.
 


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Digging through the archives for an interview with the Rockies' new Senior VP of MLB Ops.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

The Colorado Rockies' front office was recently restructured to give Dan O'Dowd's longtime assistant Bill Geivett some of O'Dowd's former duties. Jonah Keri talked to Geivett for BP in the interview reprinted below, which was originally published as a Prospectus Q&A column on May 24, 2006.

Read the full article...

Did new Orioles general manager Dan Duquette leave a mess behind him in his last GM job?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

As Dan Duquette prepares to take on a clean-up operation in Baltimore, revisit Jonah's take on his job performance in his previous stints as a GM, which originally ran on April 25, 2002.
 


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June 13, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Dave Dombrowski

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Jonah Keri

Jonah sits down with the architect of teams in Montreal, Florida and now Detroit to discuss building teams under difficult circumstances, the importance of finding front-office talent, and the development of the current Tiger squad.

Dombrowski made the best of suboptimal situations in both Montreal and South Florida, twice producing winning teams under difficult circumstances. But the Detroit Tigers seemed to be an even tougher task when Dombrowski took over. When owner Mike Ilitch hired Dombrowski as GM in the fall of 2001, the Tigers were coming off eight straight losing seasons. Lacking a strong farm system or star-level major league talent, many speculated that things could get worse before they got better in Detroit. Four more losing seasons, including the historically awful 43-119 season in 2003, proved those dire predictions true. But thanks to some strong drafting, a fruitful player development system and some well-timed trades and signings, the Tigers have come roaring back in 2006. More than one-third of the way through the season, Detroit sports the best record in MLB. Dombrowski recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about the “r” word (rebuilding), the hidden value found in the Rule 5 draft, and tips on how to make the best of a bad situation.

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May 24, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Bill Geivett

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Jonah Keri

The Rockies are off to a hot start, and Jonah sits down with one of the architects of the current team, Bill Geivett. On the menu: developing young talent, competing at altitude, and creative decision making.

Bill Geivett played several seasons in the Angels' minor league system before hanging up his cleats. He quickly caught on with the Yankees as an area scout. Geivett has logged multiple stops since then. He served as farm director for the Expos; he went to Tampa Bay before the Rays ever took the field; he spent two years with the Dodgers, ascending to the role of Assistant General Manager. Geivett joined the Rockies after the 2000 season. His tenure in Colorado started on the major league scouting side. After two years he took over minor league operations. For the last two years Geivett has held the title of Assistant General Manager, Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Rockies.

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May 10, 2006 12:00 am

AL-Kings May Update

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Jonah Keri

Jonah checks in with news from the BP celebrity Scoresheet league.

Scoresheet's premise is simple: Instead of using rotisserie baseball rules, Scoresheet forces combatants to construct a full, balanced roster, just like any major league team not named the Royals would. That means a strong starting nine, a full five-man rotation, deep bullpen and useful bench. Scoresheet then runs simulations of games every week, with the game results based on what the fielded players did in real life that week. There's a 162-game regular season, followed by the playoffs. The winner of AL-Kings is the one that wins the World Series. The prize is $1,000 donated to the charity of his choice, courtesy of BP.

Sounds simple in theory. But in practice, AL-Kings has been, in many ways, more about the how-tos on handling roster attrition than anything else. With 12 teams drafting, no payroll restrictions tilting talent one way or another and 12 capable GMs at the helm, building a strong roster top-to-bottom proved a tough task. In many ways, AL-Kings is Under The Knife, writ large: The winner of the league might very well be the team that best manages to avoid--and make up for--the injuries that plague every major league team.

Read the full article...

May 5, 2006 12:00 am

The Prince Is Dead

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Jonah Keri

Jonah Keri checks in with some historical comparables for Albert Pujols.

But compare Albert Pujols’ performance in the first five years of his career to those of MLB’s other greats, and the name Prince starts to look inadequate. By the numbers, Pujols looks more like a king.

Pujols’ first five seasons rank among the top 10 performances in major league history by just about every advanced metric possible. BP’s Equivalent Average stat lets us compare hitters across all eras by adjusting for league and park effects and quality of competition. The result is then boiled down to a number that runs along the same scale as batting average. If a hitter nets a .350 EqA, he’s a superstar. If he puts up a .175, he shouldn't be in the big leagues.

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April 19, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Q&A: Matthew Silverman and Andrew Friedman

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Jonah Keri

Jonah Keri sits down with both the Team President and Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to discuss fan interest, handling player development programs, and more.

Andrew Friedman ascended to the role of Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Rays this off-season. He previously spent two years as Director of Baseball Development, where he oversaw all aspects of baseball operations and led the negotiations for Carl Crawford's long-term contract. Friedman spent two years as a financial analyst for Bear, Stearns and three years as an associate for the private equity firm MidMark Capital before joining the Rays. Silverman and Friedman recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus about their handling of the Rays' top prospects, the challenges of generating fan interest in Tampa, and the advantages of a multi-tiered front office structure.

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March 21, 2006 12:00 am

Who Are the AL-Kings?

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Jonah Keri

Jonah Keri introduces us to the participants in Baseball Prospectus' Celebrity Scoresheet League.

Even the most die-hard Rotisserie player would stop short of calling the game a perfect proxy for the real thing, though. Roto's focus on statistics such as RBI, stolen bases, saves and wins are enough to make any card-carrying stathead scurry for the soothing comfort of his VORP tables. Luckily there are games that do a better job of replicating real-life baseball. Strat-O-Matic incorporates such elements as defense and strategic decisions (taking the extra base, bunting, hit-and-run plays) into its game. Strat does fall short in one element though, as it relies on the previous season's stats to generate the action. "What, Derrek Lee hit another three-run homer? Shocking!"

Scoresheet Baseball, on the other hand, combines realistic game results with current-year statistics. If Eric Chavez goes 11-for-24 in a given week, you get the benefit of that offensive outburst and Chavez's Gold Glove defense during the corresponding week on the Scoresheet schedule. Scoresheet has a few flaws too. It doesn't account for park effects for one, making Rockies hitters and Nationals pitchers appear more valuable than they are in reality. Still, it's a challenging, fun-to-play game that's a departure from traditional rotoball.

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March 20, 2006 12:00 am

2006--Setting the Stage

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Jonah Keri

Today we begin our two-week long countdown to Opening Day. Jonah Keri starts things off with a look at the season that might be for Seattle's Felix Hernandez.

Ladies and gentlemen, brace yourselves. We're about to peer into our crystal ball and predict the 2006 outcome forthe fifth starter on a last-place team. Ah, but this isn't just any old fifth starter on a last-place team. This is the greatest fifth starter in major league history and the most captivating player in the game today.

Few professional athletes--well, few male professional athletes--have ever received as much attention at so young an age as has Felix Hernandez. When Hernandez takes the mound for his first start of the season on April 7, he'll do so a day before his 20th birthday. No one expects anything less than complete dominance, from the first time he toes the rubber.

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March 9, 2006 12:00 am

LABR of Love, v2006

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Jonah Keri

Jonah reports on the AL LABR draft, hoping that the Player Forecast Manager can help him avoid some of last year's more memorable mistakes.

I learned this the hard way at last year's League of Alternative Baseball Reality draft, NL version. The 2005 draft marked the third time I used PECOTA to guide my drafting in an experts' fantasy league, following stints in the 2003 Tout Wars and 2004 LABR National League drafts. Last year was notable for three huge draft-table whiffs: D'Angelo Jimenez for $17, Endy Chavez at $11 and Cristian Guzman at $9. All three of those picks came at values that were actually below the dollar figures spit out by the Player Forecast Manager, a fantasy-specific drafting system that runs off the projections generated by BP's PECOTA projection system.

The PFM (newly updated today) takes PECOTA's raw output and adjusts for an array of factors, from position scarcity to category scarcity (saves and steals especially) to many others. But as with any projection system, it pays to inject some common sense into the mix as well. Jimenez showed strong results at the plate heading into the 2005 season, so that flop was tougher to predict. Chavez and Guzman simply stink, no matter how you look at them. Many of the major leagues' top basestealers bring little more than speed to the table. But as long as they show at least one other skill--doubles power, on-base ability, a knack for finding incriminating photos of their manager--they're going to keep their jobs, bat near the top of the lineup and generate plenty of steals and runs scored. Players like Chavez or Guzman are so limited in their talents that even the most speed-obsessed manager is going to yank them from the lineup eventually if they continue to dwell below replacement level. So, lesson learned. Don't draft terrible players.

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