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November 14, 2012 Transaction AnalysisThe Toronto Blue Jays Acquire Most of the Remaining Miami Marlinsby R.J. Anderson, Derek Carty, Jason Parks and Mark Anderson
We'll be updating this article with additional reactions and analysis as the situation develops.
Reportedly will acquire RHP Josh Johnson, SS-S Jose Reyes, LHP Mark Buehrle, C-R John Buck, UTL-S Emilio Bonifacio and $4 million from the Marlins for SS-R Yunel Escobar, SS-R Adeiny Hechavarria, RHP Henderson Alvarez, C-R Jeff Mathis, LHP Justin Nicolino, and OF-R Jake Marisnick. [11/13]
BP Comment Quick Links MattWinks (63636) The scary thing is that this deal doesn't actually seem that unbalanced when you assess how much money and risk the Blue Jays took on...but an entire team was just traded. Also how can any free agent sign in Miami without a no-trade clause while this ownership group is in place? The short answer is "money." A player who wants to maximize money will sign in Miami without an NTC if they offer the most. Nov 13, 2012 18:51 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) Though the Jays take on some risk, most of the players the Jays acquired (Buehrle, Reyes, Johnson, maybe even Bonaficio) would've netted at least a prospect in exchange. Yet the Marlins only got two prospects. CRP13 (46873) To apply a hometown perspective, which trade had a higher cost/benefit? MattWinks (63636) Because that Hunter Pence trade is an outlier and it was horrendous. If the Astros ever turn it around, that is going to be one of the defining moments. Richard Bergstrom (36532) You're being too generous to the Marlins. I don't believe for one second they thought they were able to contend last year. They just bought a few players and a manager to hype up their new ballpark then promptly ditched them. Even if the Marlins got to the playoffs, even if they got to the World Series, I still think they still would've sold off Bell/Buehrle/Reyes etc well before their contracts were up. Lespaul1 (44118) How long before Marlins season ticket holders file a lawsuit? Richard Bergstrom (36532) Wouldn't it be funny if the Marlins timed this so that season ticket holders couldn't get a refund? Matt Commins (63058) I would demand a refund if I was season ticket holder; I would also sue Loria and ask him to pay for the stadium with the revenue sharing money they're going to receive jbriaz (33322) From a financial standpoint, I'm not sure it makes sense for the Blue Jays to take on all those deals in terms of years and money. Of course, it makes them better for 2013, but at what cost? Perhaps they are expanding financially and this means nothing. But this does seem to be a change of pace for them. juiced (41014) These two claims can't be true simultaneously. Loria is either wise for getting Toronto to take on a bunch of risky contracts or he is bailing out of the contracts too early John Hilton (24866) This makes tremendous sense for the Jays from a financial point of view. You just have to look at the Jays as being a national team, not just one from Toronto. Unless you are Canadian, you wouldn't realize the tremendous difference between the US and Canadian media markets that exist. John Hilton (24866) Sorry, I didn't mean 30 million households. I meant 30 million people. jbriaz (33322) I didn't mean that Loria was stupid, financially speaking, for getting out of the contracts. I meant as an MLB owner. He is bad for the sport. And yes, to echo the comments in response to mine, if the Blue Jays start to pony up and utilize their economic advantages, the money won't matter. Richard Bergstrom (36532) To add a bit of PR insult to injury, the Marlins should've targeted a player who wasn't banned for writing Spanish homophobic slurs on his eyeblack since, from what I understand, there is a pretty thriving homosexual community in Miami... 19braves77 (64975) getting double taxed in Toronto isn't going to be fun. John Carter (22689) Canadian taxes aren't that much higher, are they? As a dual citizen, I don't get double taxed, but I do pay whatever the highest rate would be between the countries - and I might lose a break because of it. Perhaps, in these high priced ballplayer income brackets, there might be some double taxing. John Hilton (24866) By the way, I am calling it here first. The Jays next manager will be Joe Torre. There is no way they are going into the season with a greenhorn with all the money that was just spent. John Carter (22689) They've already announced that they are seeking a veteran manager. I'd put my money on Jim Tracy or Ken Macha over Joe Torre, who is much older and probably just as soon prefer to stay retired. Richard Bergstrom (36532) Tracy would be a mistake. Macha might work but he did have some problems with the A's clubhouse as I recall and with towing Beane's line. Someone like Acta might be interesting and would probably fit the saber-mindset Anthropoulous has. I could also see something out of left field like Don Baylor. T. Kiefer (41616) A few nights ago on the MLB Network it was intimated that Larry Bowa was interviewed for the job. CalledStrike3 (2881) If Baltimore can come within a game of winning the AL East with the below average talent they had last season: The time is now for Toronto to Load the Gun and Fire. Joey Bats isn't getting any younger and the Blue Jay pieces past, present and future are there. mbodell (89) I wonder how much of the Jays spending more and going for it has to do with the new 2 wild cards which must greatly increase their odds of making the playoffs (even if only for 1 game). Matt Commins (63058) I think the new wild card format had an impact but there are two biger reasons why the trade was made; José Bautista's age , he's not getting any younger; this the weakest the AL East has been in a long time ofMontreal (37476) Hmmm. What if Johnson is cooked? What if Buehrle isn't more than a one win pitcher? What if Reyes misses half the season? I'm excited about this deal too, but Miami isn't stupid about talent. This was an ok deal for them. eppsaw (65233) that risk far outweighs what the Jays gave up Richard Bergstrom (36532) Risk? The Jays found a way to offload Vernon Wells. I'm sure figuring out how to offload someone like Buehrle will be less risky. pphunk (70270) Buehrle pitched in the AL Central for how many years? I think he'll handle the Jr. Circuit juuuuust fine. ahemmer (47532) In his career, Buehrle's been great against the Orioles, okay against the Red Sox and Rays (including a perfect game), and terrible against the Yankees. His main advantage is he is a strike thrower, and the AL East is notoriously patient. If he can do his usual thing and get ahead in counts, he may be okay. He does risk becoming homer-prone, though. Pat Folz (6254) If you're going to actually rebuild, then don't you get as much talent as possible? Escobar might in theory be pretty good but he's 29 and sucked out loud last year, not to mention his various off-field concerns. Alvarez is a crummy back-end guy, Mathis is Mathis, and the rest... maybe I'm wildly misreading the industry appraisal of these guys, but are any of them even MLB Top 50 material? Nicolino is the only one who even strikes me as a likely Top 100 guy. Honestly, I'm not even sure I'd take this return over what the Brewers got for Greinke, and that was for two months of one guy. Behemoth (46675) You're misreading the prospects. Marisnick and Nicolino are probably both on the margins of the top 50. Hechevarria has some value as well, although the bat is a problem as discussed. He can play well all round the infield as a defensive utility guy at least. Pat Folz (6254) Marisnick is that well-regarded? Could be, I guess. I thought the write-up here was unflattering and he got eaten alive in AA. LowDraw67 (68995) As a Jays fan, the only player I am sorry to see leave is Hechavarria. And that is saying something. Escobar was a goner before this trade occurred. And while Nicolino is a promising prospect, the fact that the Jays did not deal d'Arnaud, Sanchez or Syndergaard, is huge. Alvarez might develop into a decent middle of the rotation guy if he can figure out how to throw a breaking pitch. But right now, he's basically a 2 pitch pitcher. amazin_mess (9525) The fact they didn't get d'Arnaud makes the deal a huge loss for Miami. That team is out of Miami within five years. No one is going to show up now. I don't know the legalities behind it, but I can't fathom that after building a publicly funded stadium, the Marlins would be permitted to leave town in five years. Nov 14, 2012 10:25 AM Llarry Amrose (1146) And why would he leave? Do we have any evidence that Loria's on his way to the poor house? He doesn't sell a lot of tickets, but at what he pays out most years, he doesn't need to. He got his stadium. Every few years he pops up and makes a run at respectability, even got a championship once like his predecessor, just enough to try to convince everyone (that matters) that he's a real owner. terryspen (30748) The Marlins have a 30-year contract on the stadium -- they aren't leaving town. But they don't need to draw large crowds to make good money. Even before they sell a ticket they make enough through revenue sharing and broadcast rights to cover the payroll they will now have -- those documents Deadspin got a couple years ago showed the Marlins were hugely profitable drawing no one at a football stadium where they had an unfavorable lease. PeterBNYC (15402) Because we don't like him, we underestimate the cunning and tenacity of Mr. Loria. He won't go until he's damn ready, and he will keep pulling stuff like this until he's gone. At the end of the day, this is a salary dump, in tune with Marlins history. Ho hum. Whenever we think we have Mr. Loria figured out, he pulls something like this out of his bag. Season ticketholders who DONT sue are the yokels he took them for. And MLB will do nothing, nothing. thegeneral13 (32625) You have the logic reversed. We don't underestimate the tenacity of Loria because we don't like him; we don't like him because of his tenacity in disregarding the investments fans, the Miami community, and taxpayers have made in his ballclub. Llarry Amrose (1146) "He won't go until he's damn ready, and he will keep pulling stuff like this until he's" *driven out of town on a rail by a mob of villagers with torches and pitchforks and possibly with a wooden stake through his heart.* saucyjack88 (20953) Actually, it is in the Commissioner's power to force Loria to sell the team under the "better interest of baseball" concept. I think MLB would be very well served, particularly at this point in time, to save the Miami market, to force Loria out. jdeich (50647) Sadly, the presented analysis lacks a deep dive into The Mathis Impact. Mathis is coming off his best offensive season ever, where he more than doubled his total career's bWAR. Plus, his career 1.150 postseason OPS shows his clutchy, gritty #want. terryspen (30748) I've had Marlins weekend season tickets since 2007 and was on the fence about renewing, but now they have pushed me off. When I renewed last fall, they made it sound like I had better act fast because with the new stadium (which to their and Miami taxpayers' credit is a great place to watch a game) and free agent signings (we are serious about going after Pujols), getting shutout was a real possiblity. tweicheld (27360) This is what I love about BP, having just read through 42 comments. From where I sit, Loria has stuck it to Marlins fans once again. Yes, some of the traded players don't have great health histories, but the Marlins got nothing to speak of. Any chance Loria gets a call from the commish (yeah right)? On a separate topic, I still want to know what it is about Florida that makes MLB such a tough sell. Too many other options for the public's entertainment dollars? NYYanks826 (37443) I would be wary of Yunel Escobar's OBP, as well. He had the lowest walk rate of his career this year, and it doesn't even seem that close. With what projects to be an extremely weak lineup surrounding him, I can't imagine pitchers are going to be too afraid to pitch to him. boards (10244) Looking at the contracts page for the Marlins, they have 1 arb-eligible player going into 2013 (Ryan Webb). The only player signed past 2013 is newly-acquired Jeff Mathis at $1.5 million. Giancarlo Stanton and several others will be arb-eligible for the first time in 2014. John Carter (22689) Why blame a losing team without good prospects for the next season to sell off all their bloated contracts they can for as many promising young players they can? Marisnick, Nicolino, Hechavarria, and even the social ignoramus Escobar have some promise. John Carter (22689) Why the minuses? Does this have to do with providing an inside scoop without naming names? He is a family friend I wish to protect. Is there something about my observation regarding the trade itself that is incorrect or illogical? Are teams not allowed to have rebuilding phases just because they have a new stadium? I'd love to pile on the hate towards Loria - and I do with my scoop about his farm system, but I don't fault him for this particular deal. John Carter (22689) Apparently, it is not such an outlandish opinion. From John Perrotto today: Front-office types' views: greensox (24783) I can't believe that BP is actually evaluating the micro aspects of this trade with a straight face. Isaac Lin (18010) Small clarification: Rogers' sports channel, Sportsnet, is more like Fox Sports, as Sportsnet consists of four regional networks (Fox had a minority ownership stake, though I'm not sure if it still does). The previous majority owner of Sportsnet, CTV, now owns TSN, which is the equivalent of ESPN, both in terms of its national network coverage and popularity (ESPN has a minority share in TSN).
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70 comments have been left for this article.
Jeffrey Loria has an island for sale in New York for the low price of $24 dollars.
Unfortunately, it's not the one you are thinking of, and power is expected to be restored there in approximately 2017.