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November 5, 2012 Prospects Will Break Your HeartHouston Astros Top 10 Prospectsby Jason Parks
State of the Farm: “Joan was quizzical; studied pataphysical science in the home. Late nights all alone with a test tube. Oh, oh, oh, oh.” The Top 10
What Happened in 2012: Singleton finally carried his impressive batting practice power into game action, ripping 52 extra-base hits against Double-A competition, including 21 homers. Strengths: Easy 7 raw power that should play at solid-average right out of the gate and has the potential to mature into 30-plus home run utility down the line; advanced secondary skills at the plate; excellent strike zone awareness and solid pitch recognition ability.
BP Comment Quick Links BillJohnson (2635) "(H)ealth issues like blood clots in the throwing arm scare people." Man, no shock. What kind of a physical did Ruiz have to pass before they signed him? bheikoop (32208) Great read, great reports, great info. Not all five-star prospects are created equal. I wanted to focus more on the reports. If you read the reports, you will see how the players compare with other players. You can also use the OFP grades and risk evaluations to form those conclusions. Nov 05, 2012 06:30 AM Behemoth (46675) I don't think anyone said that all #1s were equal. That would be as silly as saying that all five star prospects were equal. bheikoop (32208) I didn't say that the star ranking was perfect, but compare Wily Peralta (last year's Brewers #1-4*) to any 5 star prospect and you can make my logical connection. Brandon...2 things. 1) I'm curious. What's the reason you compare prospects beyond their rank and OFP? Seriously, just curious. I'm not being malicious. 2) I'm not sure I get "a precise rating system, which I haven't found a prospect rating system in any sport that doesn't use one." Are you saying that you've seen a precise rating system for prospects in every sport? Nov 05, 2012 19:25 PM Just to give you an idea where I'm going with this, you compared the Brewers (#1 prospect) Peralta, a 4 star prospect, to any 5 star prospect to make a logical connection. Makes sense. I completely understand. But is comparing the Cubs #1 prospect Brett Jackson, a 5 star prospect last year, to Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, also 5 star prospects, logical at all? I think you understand my point. You have to use some thought or analysis to differentiate no matter what system is used. Nov 05, 2012 19:53 PM dwinning (31741) So are we not doing the 5-star/4-star/3-star thing? I know it's very imprecise and subjective but it's been very helpful in comparing players between systems of varying strengths. Again, if you actually read the scouting evaluations, you should be able to compare players without much trouble. I wasn't a fan of the star ratings. Instead, we are using the more defined OFP grades and risk distinctions. Nov 05, 2012 06:37 AM Behemoth (46675) Hi Jason, just wanted to clarify this a little. Looking at the ratings above, the Astros have a whole bunch of players with 6 potential, and they appear to be all mixed up in order, despite various levels of risk - for example, you have Springer (6/High risk) ahead of DeShields (6/Moderate risk). Why might that happen? For me, a 6 center fielder is more valuable than a 6 second baseman. It depends on the specifics of the skill-set, of course, but like any grading system, the final label attached to the player will be too vague, too impersonal to give the full-story. How much value does a quality center fielder really have over a quality second baseman? Well, it depends on the construction of the team, but for the most part, I tend to favor positional value if the overall potential is the same. If you offer me two role 6 players, and one is a second baseman and one is a center fielder, I'm much more likely to prefer the player at the premium position. Nov 05, 2012 07:15 AM apmarshall62 (2864) Sure, these reports seem to read like organizational scouting reports and to some measure that is good. Still, I'm a serious enough fan to read BP, but I don't spend all my free time reading about prospects. Behemoth (46675) Stars are like batting average as a measure of hitter competence. Most readers here are looking for more than that, in my opinion. Also, as a fan, I found the reports very easy to read and understand. We're not moving away from anything. It's just a new way of doing things. We understand people don't liek change, and we appreciate your concern. On the other hand, as Jason indicated, comparing star ratings across teams is no more accurate that comparing players without star ratings. Not all 5 star players are created equal. So trading one five star player for another five star player doesn't necessarily mean a trade was equal. The substance of the analysis is in the reports and detail...just like in real life baseball. That's a good thing for the fans IMO. Nov 05, 2012 10:20 AM Jivas (649) I'm so hoping that KG opens a new Baseball Prospectus account under a pseudonym so he can troll Jason in the comments section. OuagadougouGM (31977) So, what is Cisnero's stuff like? I noticed he had a very strong K rate this year at AA/AAA, but if he can't get a mention here, that must be based on smoke and mirrors. Not smoke and mirrors; he has good stuff. The system has a lot of talent, and he just didn't make the cut. He has a very good fastball, with plus velocity that can touch higher. The secondary arsenal isn't great, and the command needs work, but he will be a major league arm. The ceiling could be a back-end type, but with a four-seamer with a little punch to it, he could probably carve out a better career in the 'pen. Nov 05, 2012 07:20 AM azynkewl (36128) love the new top 10 write-ups! karp62 (39084) I really like the new format. I don't need the "stars" as much as I need the quality and depth of the write-ups. I like the OFP too. One thing I would like to see next year is adding the "last year's OFP" to it, so we can perform an improvement or regression analysis (tracking players) without having to pull up the archives. Very well done JP and Crew. CRP13 (46873) Nice work on this guys. I'm solidly anti-Villar, but other than that I agree with the rankings (not that my opinion matters). Not the biggest fan of the profile. The bat needs to be really, really good to play. The body is already quite thick, and as you mentioned, that is a concern for some people going forward. The sample is small, so if he can move to full-season ball and show the stick, he will move up the board. Nov 05, 2012 08:10 AM My concern is that he ultimately profiles as a left fielder with a 5/5 offensive profile and not much positive defensive value or added value on the bases. Nov 05, 2012 08:27 AM I was excited to get a look at Tucker in the NYPL this season, but he left me disappointed. He works counts and forces young pitchers to throw him strikes, but advanced pitchers will exploit him. Advanced defenders will get to Tucker's dribblers up the middle. The type of contact I saw from him was rarely impressive. It's going to take a lot for him to become a 50 hitter, and the body isn't going to help him stick in LF. Outside chance as a second division first baseman, for me. Nov 05, 2012 09:44 AM CRP13 (46873) Thanks guys, it's obvious to me that the "team effort" approach to this article has paid off in spades. That all three of you answered my questions with real observations and data makes BP even more credible as a source of prospect knowledge because it's not just a "one guy" take. Ashitaka1110 (68384) Nicholas Tropeano couldn't even get a mention? Even in the guys on the rise? Boy oh boy, if you aren't drafted in the first two rounds, you're chopped liver until you start throwing no-hitters in AA I guess. We don't have a draft bias. He was on the bubble for the 10th spot with Folty. Ultimately, we went with the guy with the slightly higher ceiling. He wasn't included in the "On the Rise" list because I don't feel his prospect status is on the rise. We thought he had a back-end projection. His CH is a very sick pitch, but the rest of the arsenal is more pedestrian. It wasn't personal. We just didn't think he was among the top ten players in a very deep system. Nov 05, 2012 08:07 AM canada (46557) Really like the format and explanations... a little sad there is no ephemera, but my heart will go on. DeathSpeculum (63111) wow, not even a mention of telvin nash. some *mild* concerns about the hit tool, mayhap? gotta respect the fact that the guy homered, doubled or struck out in the lions share of his ab's. Telvin Nash K'd 198 times in only 106 games at the High-A level. That's impressive. He might K 250 times in Double-A. Nov 05, 2012 08:11 AM akcolonial (37887) Great work, Jason. I definitely prefer it without the stars. It seems to me that "6 potential/high risk" is nearly as concise as "four stars" but contains ten times as much useful information. A's Fan 38 Yrs (26098) Last year there was — at the top of each team's report — a "Previous Ranking" line where you could click on specific years to read those listings. That was pretty useful. Possible to add that back in? Thanks! I appreciate the suggestions, but this is the finished product. KG's lists can still be found on the site. But this is a new product with a new process, so using KG's rankings in comparison to the new model might not be all that helpful. Going forward, we will link back to previous rankings, but we have to establish our own product first. Nov 05, 2012 08:45 AM Jim Humdingding (38704) Another thumbs down for removing the stars. They were useful for my purposes since my interest level wanes as quickly as the talent level drops. It was one clear advantage over BA's write-ups, and removed questions of interpretation when it came to identifying Top 50 prospect types in advance of the Top 101 (assuming that will still exist). Perhaps I'm way off, but slapping on stars seems like a small effort compared to the heavy lifting of research. When you pay for convenience, losing it isn't fun. It's not my fault that your interest level wanes. We are providing a thorough and thoughtful product, and we decided this construct was the best vehicle to deliver scouting information to the readers. This isn't a $3.99 buffet at the Golden Corral. Nov 05, 2012 08:38 AM CRP13 (46873) Thumbs up for "no stars". They are an arbitrary judgement call anyway. Add your own stars! Daddyboy (19131) I would argue that it is your fault, as that is your j-o-b. Keeping the readers interest. I don't subscribe to that. If the reader wants to be lazy, the work shouldn't have to apologize or cater to that laziness. The people that want to participate are encouraged to participate. I hope people engage with the work and push me (and it) to higher levels. Then there are people that want it made easy so they don't have to invest in the effort. I'm not here to chew your food; I'm here to provide a thoughtful chili. Nov 05, 2012 15:14 PM We are giving the majority of the readers what they want. We discussed the options and decided to follow this path. Unfortunately, we can't do everything for everyone, and some people are bound to be unhappy. That's the nature of all things in life. We feel as though we put forth an extremely strong product and continue to provide analysis that nobody else has. Nov 05, 2012 15:15 PM adrock (48499) I very much enjoy the new format. The context and descriptions are excellent. Until someone mentioned it in the comments, I hadn't noticed that the stars were gone. I would say the 9-15 range of prospects in the system were tough to rank. Ultimately, we went with Folty at #10, but the list was deep for that spot. Guys like Woj were very much in the debate. I'll say this: The Astros have a lot of depth, and most of that depth will eventually contribute to the major league club on some level. That's impressive. Most of the players they traded for last season have realistic major league floors. The ceilings might be limited and the prospect status might not be that sexy, but they have a chance to help out the major league squad. That's huge. Nov 05, 2012 08:51 AM Matt Commins (63058) Excellent piece! After reading about Jarred Cosart, it sounds like you're insinuating lacks a closer mentality? Or does fortitude mean something else? Do you believe in the closer mentality? If so, where would that go in the scouting report? Thanks. I do believe in closer's mentality. It's in the makeup. The ability to pitch in high pressure situations and deal with failure. It's huge. Not every pitcher has it. Some of the sources I spoke with questioned whether or nor Cosart had that necessary attribute in his skill-set. Sometimes you just have to get thrown into the fire before you know if you can handle the heat. Cosart has yet to stand on the rubber in a high-leverage situation at the major league level, so the jury is still out. Nov 05, 2012 09:10 AM BillJohnson (2635) I will withhold judgment on the new format until I see a few more writeups, since several things you've said imply that the Astros have a rather unusual system, at least in terms of depth. It may be clearer how their system compares to others, which I think is one of the things people are clamoring for, once we've seen the writeups for those others. This said, it's good writing technique to make some readily-accessible "summary" available, whether that takes the form of stars or something else. Maybe copy the "Overall Future Potential" lines in the "top ten" list at the top of the article? One way or the other, thanks for keeping the content alive. I want to encourage people to read the reports, make every effort to understand the reports, and draw their conclusions from those reports. It might take time, but I think this construct will force people to learn more about the prospects they follow. Nov 05, 2012 09:13 AM mrenick (29670) The new format is fantastic and is exactly what I want when I am reading about prospects. I want tools profiles, ceilings, risk explanations etc and you guys have pulled it all together into a thorough, easy to read format. I sound like fanboy but I love the format and look forward to then next 29. I'm also happy that I didn't have to wait for my favorite team's report. Nice job to all involved. russellj90 (60132) I know Jimmy Paredes was mentioned briefly as a utility guy late in the article, but I was curious as to where you like his glove the best? I saw him play some third and outfield, and was curious as to how good with the glove he can be. philly (1628) Jason In bursts, I think Cosart could have an 8 fastball, but he doesn't command it well enough and he doesn't hide it very well. Velo is obviously a big part of the overall grade, but movement and command are very important as well, especially movement. Big league hitters can hit velocity, but when you can add movement to that equation the pitch becomes even better. In Cosart's case, I can see how his 7 FB might play down because of the command. When he can spot it, though.. its nasty. Nov 05, 2012 10:08 AM delatopia (19303) The "Future Potential" category is ennumerated based on the 2-8 scouting scale, right? Not the typical 1-10, which for most people is what comes to mind first. Leg4206 (67464) This is a system I where I have seen a lot of these first hand. Not only do I think your observations are pretty accurate and balanced, I really like the format. Really good job. nschneider (20893) Put me in the group that misses the stars. Is it somewhat lazy? Maybe, but it allows us to compare the depth of systems without doing an exhaustive reading for each pair. I'm just trying to deliver quality information in an accessible manner. If you want in-depth coverage, all you have to do is read the reports. If you don't want to do exhaustive reading, I can't solve that problem for you. You will get out of these what you are willing to put into them. If you want an easy-to-swallow slideshow, I'm sure Bleacher Report will produce a prospect list. If you want to read detailed evaluations and take the conversation to another level, let's go that route. I think the majority of people on this site demand that from the writers ( as they should). Nov 05, 2012 10:44 AM Peter7899 (48545) Geez Jason, You sound like the soup Nazi when you respond to comments. Lighten up dude. sitdancer (67002) I really dig the new format, and I appreciate the inclusion of the player pictures as well! I also like the addition of Prospects on the Rise and Factors on the Farm, and the two different set of players covered this way. I think that section would benefit if player's ages were also included (I understand we won't get the full information as in the Top 10, but there should be enough room for DOB, right?) John Carter (22689) I agree with the readers that the star rating system was useful for comparing prospects across organizations. It was giving us something that Baseball America wasn't. I can see that it is hard work, though, and not your thing, Jason. I'm OK with your giving us what you can and not wasting your time on translating all of this information into a single simple star rating. John Carter (22689) . . . but honestly, it's not a big deal. In fact, I actually prefer the format as you have it, because I can easily find what I need to know about each prospect. I feel confident I can make whatever overall value translations I need for my purposes better myself. Shaun P. (676) Jason, I really like the new format - the font changes, spacing, and the pictures combine to make it an enjoyable and easier read - and especially the presentation of information. Every lawyer appreciates a reading a well-thought out risk analysis; when its about prospects, its even better. Nope. Never thought about it. Oddly enough, those were my favorite aspects of KG's prospect rankings. Loved them. It was a very KG move. Hopefully the little quirks in the new construct will prove to be equally enjoyable; although, as you might have read above, not everybody likes the Beatles or likes "creativity," so it might be a tough sell. Nov 05, 2012 11:57 AM Pat Folz (6254) DEATH TO THE STARS! bheikoop (32208) Death to order/numbers!!! mattseward (30445) Seems to be a lot of comments about star ratings, funny thing is I can remember in the comments of KG articles lots of people wanting gradings of the tools etc which we now have and is great. bheikoop (32208) The stars were not KG's thing. Stars are used wide to grade things from restaurants, to teachers, to energy consumption and so on. dREaDS Fan (51622) Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway. I miss the ETA section from the KG era. (Apologies if that was already mentioned.) JamesAngelos (67504) I thoroughly enjoyed reading this list, thanks for the hard work. I suspect even the naysayers who want stars and hate the Beatles will stick around for the rest. JPinPhilly (60369) Replace the stars with bacon strips. Everyone wins. mdthomp (65017) This might be a really dumb question, so I apologize if thats the case. But when you say Correa projects to possibly have "7" for power does that mean for Shortstops, or all prospects regardless of position? Thanks for the great comments, suggestions, and discussion. Seriously, I really appreciate the effort. If this is the response to every team ranking, I'll be tickled stupid. Nov 05, 2012 16:10 PM R.A.Wagman (32721) At first, I was irked by the lack of stars. Then I realized what JP was doing. I appreciate being given the tools to think for myself, instead of being dictated to. Not that KG was a dictator, but the stars did have a way of dumbing things down. So far, so good, JP. bowdrie42 (26267) Congrats on getting the first one out. Format firestorm or not, it has to feel good! Speaking of, the matter of format is a trivial one. What really matters is how the prospects pan out, particulary the ones you deem high OFP/low risk. Just like a trade involving prospects, it may take a while before we know whose analysis and ranking of prospects was superior. But there's no disputing the effort you've put into this, and I believe that will be appreciated by most of us readers. Thank you! silviomossa (2007) I also mis the stars, but appreciate you doing something different and I enjoy the new format. Well written and analyzed, best of luck to you going forward. I eagerly await to see how crappy my Brewers farm looks. ;-( bobgale (18724) Personally, I enjoy change. For me, this particular combination of wit, dynamic writing and insightful inside information about prospects is absolutely refreshing stuff. That's nothing against KG at all, just a vote in favor of the new way. jackweiland (28328) You may have been asked about this, but thoughts on Ariel Ovando? I don't like the profile. Not sold that he can stick in the OF, which puts even more pressure on the bat. Lots of raw power, but not sure the bat develops enough to have major league value at 1B or DH. Nov 06, 2012 10:00 AM jackweiland (28328) Thanks. I like the new format, by the way, for whatever that is worth. It's different, but good. mcarnow (68221) This should be a primer question, but is there a reason you're using 2-8, rather than 20-80? The latter scale would allow some half-grades (i.e. 65s), which I think would provide greater nuance. I prefer 2/8. Half grades can still factor in, though. Example: High 5; Low 5; Low 6; High 6, etc. It's the same as saying 55 or 65. I tend to prefer 2/8 because of the role factor. If you write that a player is a 55, what about that player isn't a 6, or isn't a 5? I think eliminates some of the hedging. 55 is a nice balance; its safer. But if you think the player is a 6, call him a 6. Or if you think he's closer to a 5, call him a 5. Nov 06, 2012 11:43 AM JoshC77 (31796) Jason, I dig the format and like the depth of the work you put into this. One thought though: wjmcknight37 (26835) I found the stars to be arbitrary and useless. I vastly prefer the OFP. Thanks for the great work, all of you. I can't wait for the rest of the series. skarski10 (54250) There goes 50 games for Singleton. And for what? "Littering and... littering and... littering and smokin' the reefer." Barzilla (63559) Where do you see Stassi and Peacock fitting in? I wouldn't think top ten but would they have been deserving of mention had they been acquired before press time? BTW, great meeting you at the Astros game earlier this year. boatman44 (72080) jason, just wondering if you have seen former No"1 pick Josh Fields recently, if so is he truly a bust or is there still a bullpen job for him in Houston. thanks.
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129 comments have been left for this article.
Is the state of all the farms to be described by reference to lyrics from Beatles songs?
Will this represent the ultimate break with the before time and specifically the Beatles - agnostic one they called Goldstein?
Yes.
Big fan of Goldstein here, but a bigger Beatles fan. I think that's a welcome change. Also, I know people who are cool with changes aren't likely to say anything about them so I'll mention that dropping the stars is fine with me.
+1 that dropping the stars is good. The new system of quantifying potential and risk is far superior in my opinion.
Agreed. Love the "explanation of risk".
then please offer translations for those of us who don't know the Beatles lyrics, are Rolling Stones loyal, and could live without all the creative writing class stunts.
Translation: "You can't always get what you want."
If the creativity bothers you, I suggest reading something else. It will be your loss.
Can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to the next 29 Beatles lyrics references. Especially given that you've started with one of the lewdest . . .