Biographical

Portrait of Ariel Ovando

Ariel Ovando RFAstros

Astros Player Cards | Astros Team Audit | Astros Depth Chart

2014 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 20)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB TAv WARP
250 .171 3 16 19 0 .172 -2.2
Birth Date9-15-1993
Height6' 4"
Weight226 lbs
Age21 years, 1 months, 7 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2010
2011
2012
2013
-2.22014
+proj
WARP Summary

Standard

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB BB SO HBP SF SH RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP

Advanced

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G PA TAv oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG oppTAv BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ FRAA BRR BVORP BWARP VORP WARP
2011 GRV Rk 44 184 .231 .261 .331 .402 .264 .319 105 -6.4 5.8 -2.3 -2.1 -1.1 -2.5 -0.4 -2.5 -0.4
2012 GRV Rk 59 247 .264 .256 .330 .381 .257 .384 106 1 7.6 -3.1 -5.1 -0.6 2.8 -0.2 2.8 -0.2
2013 QUD A 49 189 .167 .260 .330 .374 .260 .250 105 -18.4 5.3 -2.1 -2.4 0.4 -18.4 -2.2 -18.4 -2.2
2013 GRV Rk 51 197 .248 .244 .324 .357 .254 .268 92 -2.5 5.9 -2.4 -1.4 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 -1.2 -0.3
2014 TCV A- 58 210 .205 .260 .322 .371 .262 .302 102 -12.2 5.9 -2.9 -6.7 -0.1 -7.3 -1.5 -7.3 -1.5

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team Lg PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO TAv VORP FRAA WARP
2011 GRV Rk 184 16 40 10 3 2 30 12 51 0 0 .235 .283 .365 .129 .231 -2.5 -2.1 -0.4
2012 GRV Rk 247 34 64 13 2 6 35 22 67 0 0 .287 .350 .444 .157 .264 2.8 -5.1 -0.2
2013 GRV Rk 197 25 37 8 0 4 21 23 46 0 1 .216 .310 .333 .117 .248 -1.2 -1.4 -0.3
2013 QUD A 189 12 29 5 0 1 13 18 57 3 0 .172 .250 .219 .047 .167 -18.4 -2.4 -2.2
2014 TCV A- 210 17 46 7 0 1 14 14 45 0 0 .237 .287 .289 .052 .205 -7.3 -6.7 -1.5

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2014 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/11/2014 05:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG TAv VORP FRAA WARP
90o 523 47 106 19 1 8 46 41 166 1 0 .224 .284 .322 .223 -10.4 RF -7 -1.9
80o 498 42 94 17 1 7 42 36 162 0 0 .207 .264 .297 .207 -17.6 RF -7 -2.7
70o 480 38 84 15 1 6 38 33 160 0 0 .194 .249 .279 .196 -22.3 RF -7 -3.2
60o 465 35 78 14 1 6 36 30 157 0 0 .184 .236 .264 .186 -26.0 RF -7 -3.6
50o 450 32 72 13 1 5 33 28 155 0 0 .174 .225 .249 .176 -29.2 RF -6 -3.9
40o 435 30 66 12 1 5 31 25 152 0 0 .164 .213 .235 .167 -32.2 RF -6 -4.2
30o 420 27 61 11 1 5 29 23 149 0 0 .154 .200 .220 .157 -35.0 RF -6 -4.5
20o 402 24 54 10 1 4 26 20 145 0 0 .142 .185 .203 .145 -38.0 RF -6 -4.8
10o 377 20 44 8 1 3 23 17 139 0 0 .126 .165 .179 .129 -41.5 RF -5 -5.1
Weighted Mean45834761416352915600.179.231.257.181-27.5RF -7-3.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2014 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG TAv WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
20152125023458142017810.190.248.278.198-3.1-24.5-0.5-1.814.9-37.2-3.6
20162225024447152216820.192.245.296.201-2.9-22.6-0.4-1.814.9-35.3-3.6
20172325024458152216810.192.245.292.199-3.0-23.9-0.5-1.914.9-36.4-3.6
20182425023438152116830.183.240.284.194-3.3-26.5-0.4-2.014.9-39.0-3.6
201925629591091921153422001.188.246.286.198-4.1-28.4-1.2-5.114.9-37.0-9.1
202026639631142121257481961.196.259.303.209-3.4-22.1-1.2-5.414.9-30.5-9.3
202127629651142121460521891.201.271.319.218-2.9-17.1-1.3-5.514.9-25.3-9.1
202228628661182221360541780.208.280.325.224-2.5-13.7-1.3-5.714.9-21.7-9.1
202329614661132021560531790.204.277.328.223-2.5-14.0-1.3-5.714.9-21.9-8.9

Upside By Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PEAK 5
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Comparable Players (Similarity Index 83)

Rank Score Name Year TAv Trend
1 95 Kyler Burke 2008 .000 DNP
2 91 Kelly Dugan 2011 .000 DNP
3 91 Alfredo Morales 2013 .000 DNP
4 90 Rafael Fernandez 2009 .000 DNP
5 90 Andrew Rundle 2008 .000 DNP
6 90 Roberto Rodriguez 2009 .000 DNP
7 89 Melky Mesa 2007 .000 DNP
8 89 Emilio King 2010 .000 DNP
9 89 Nelson Perez 2008 .000 DNP
10 89 Kyle Waldrop 2012 .000 DNP
11 88 Zoilo Almonte 2009 .000 DNP
12 88 Erik Miller 2008 .000 DNP
13 88 Bobby Stone 2010 .000 DNP
14 88 Max Walla 2011 .000 DNP
15 88 David Kandilas 2011 .000 DNP
16 87 Tyler Massey 2010 .000 DNP
17 87 Roman Pena 2007 .000 DNP
18 87 Christian Marrero 2007 .000 DNP
19 86 Jon Edwards 2008 .000 DNP
20 86 Kelvin De Leon 2011 .000 DNP
21 86 Brian Pointer 2012 .000 DNP
22 85 Drew Vettleson 2012 .000 DNP
23 85 Socrates Brito 2013 .000 DNP
24 85 Michael Crouse 2011 .000 DNP
25 85 Johermyn Chavez 2009 .000 DNP
26 85 Robby Hefflinger 2010 .000 DNP
27 85 Carlos Ramirez 2011 .000 DNP
28 84 Edgar Lara 2009 .000 DNP
29 84 Kyeong Kang 2008 .000 DNP
30 84 Destin Hood 2010 .000 DNP
31 84 Chevy Clarke 2012 .000 DNP
32 83 Luis Salas 2009 .000 DNP
33 83 Angel Castillo 2009 .000 DNP
34 83 Todd Glaesmann 2011 .000 DNP
35 83 Thomas Hickman 2008 .000 DNP
36 83 Leonardo Reyes 2009 .000 DNP
37 83 Benjamin Gamel 2012 .000 DNP
38 83 Jose Rivero 2010 .000 DNP
39 83 Jeremy Barfield 2009 .000 DNP
40 83 Yangervis Solarte 2008 .000 DNP
41 83 Corey Adamson 2012 .000 DNP
42 82 Julio Aparicio 2010 .000 DNP
43 82 Christopher Hawkins 2012 .000 DNP
44 82 Hilton Richardson 2009 .000 DNP
45 82 Rymer Liriano 2011 .000 DNP
46 82 Michael Swinson 2010 .000 DNP
47 82 Julio Concepcion 2010 .000 DNP
48 82 Gregory Polanco 2012 .000 DNP
49 82 Darrell Ceciliani 2010 .000 DNP
50 82 Cliff Andersen 2008 .000 DNP
51 82 Clay Fuller 2007 .000 DNP
52 82 Taylor Grote 2009 .000 DNP
53 82 Rainel Rosario 2009 .000 DNP
54 82 Efrain Contreras 2007 .000 DNP
55 81 David Medina 2009 .000 DNP
56 81 Jeremy Moore 2007 .000 DNP
57 81 Eric Eiland 2009 .000 DNP
58 81 Alberto Diaz 2009 .000 DNP
59 81 Brandon Short 2009 .000 DNP
60 81 Mitch Dening 2009 .000 DNP
61 81 Michael Planeta 2010 .000 DNP
62 81 Justin Jacobs 2009 .000 DNP
63 81 Trayvon Robinson 2008 .000 DNP
64 81 Dwight Britton 2008 .000 DNP
65 81 Alexis Oliveras 2009 .000 DNP
66 81 Felix Sanchez 2010 .000 DNP
67 81 Matt Helm 2011 .000 DNP
68 80 Jordan Cheatham 2008 .000 DNP
69 80 Jordan Akins 2012 .000 DNP
70 80 Mike McDade 2009 .000 DNP
71 80 Concepcion Rodriguez 2007 .000 DNP
72 80 Kaleb Cowart 2012 .000 DNP
73 80 Jacob Kuebler 2010 .000 DNP
74 80 Brandon Jacobs 2011 .000 DNP
75 80 Kyrell Hudson 2011 .000 DNP
76 80 Keon Broxton 2010 .000 DNP
77 80 Art Charles 2011 .000 DNP
78 80 Will Middlebrooks 2009 .000 DNP
79 80 Justin Reed 2008 .000 DNP
80 80 Thomas Pham 2008 .000 DNP
81 80 Leandro Castro 2009 .000 DNP
82 80 Geulin Beltre 2011 .000 DNP
83 80 Michael Ortiz 2009 .000 DNP
84 80 Leighton Pangilinan 2011 .000 DNP
85 80 David Renfroe 2011 .000 DNP
86 80 Jake Marisnick 2011 .000 DNP
87 80 Christopher White 2008 .000 DNP
88 80 Quincy Latimore 2009 .000 DNP
89 80 Joe Dickerson 2007 .000 DNP
90 80 Victor Estevez 2009 .000 DNP
91 79 Moises Sierra 2009 .000 DNP
92 79 Michael Saunders 2007 .000 DNP
93 79 Julio Cedeno 2010 .000 DNP
94 79 Joseph Paciorek 2009 .000 DNP
95 79 Markus Brisker 2011 .000 DNP
96 79 Cutter Dykstra 2009 .000 DNP
97 79 Scott Robinson 2009 .000 DNP
98 79 Richard Lucas 2009 .000 DNP
99 79 Eliezer Mesa 2009 .000 DNP
100 79 Desmond Jennings 2007 .000 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2013 In his senior year of high school, er, make that his second year in the Appalachian League, monster power lefty outfielder Ariel Ovando took some steps forward, and though he's fallen out of favor after getting $2.6 million to sign in 2010, there's still a lot of time for him to figure things out.
2012 While “has all the tools” certainly applies to Ovando, the one that makes him special is the power. Huge for a teenager, he's expected to slow down and his defensive contributions will be limited mostly to his arm. For readers not used to looking at stat lines from 17-year-olds in U.S. professional leagues, the extra-base hits, strikeouts, and walks are all positives from Ovando's 2011 line, despite appearances, as most players his age have another year of high school to go.

BP Articles

Ariel Ovando is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 20Kevin Goldstein2012-08-21
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of June 26Kevin Goldstein2012-06-27
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of June 21Kevin Goldstein2012-06-22
This article requires BP Premium accessFuture Shock: Astros Top 11 ProspectsKevin Goldstein2011-11-01
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Positional Primacy: Right FieldJason Parks2011-08-16
Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Games of August 3Kevin Goldstein2011-08-04


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2013-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Ariel Ovando received the biggest international signing bonus from HOU a few (3?) years ago. He's really struggling at Quad Cities this year. Even though he is still young (19), should we call this one a miss already?
(Ben from LA)
Maybe too soon to completely write him off, but even last year the reports weren't all that glowing. They have a lot better in their system. (Jason Cole)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.