If the big “We’re #4” sign on the left side of the home page yesterday wasn’t a big enough hint, Baseball Prospectus 2011 officially went on sale yesterday. To borrow from the Who, it’s meaty, beaty, big and bouncy, and while I’m not sure what that means, I’m certain it’s a good thing, even if you’re a vegetarian. On behalf of all of us, I want to express our thanks for picking up the book and pushing us to such an exalted place on the list, where even the ghost of Stieg Larsson had to look up at us. As for those that haven’t yet put in for your copy, we look forward to signing yours in person, and we admire your willpower in not claiming one, Veruca Salt style, now! Now! Now!!!
For those made of sterner stuff than that, as well as those who just like to hang out with your friendly neighborhood baseball guy, we’re going on tour. We’ve just added a date for Princeton, New Jersey, former stomping ground of both Woodrow Wilson and Ross Ohlendorf. I wonder if they knew each other? Come on by, grab a book, a cup of coffee, and a cookie and talk about the upcoming season with the lads from BP.
Washington, DC. Monday, March 7, 7 PM
Politics & Prose 5015 Connecticut Ave NW
Washington, DC
BPers in attendance: Kevin Goldstein, Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe, Ben Lindbergh
Chicago, IL. Wednesday, March 9, 6 PM
DePaul University Loop Campus Bookstore
1 East Jackson Boulevard
Chicago, IL
BPers in attendance: Kevin Goldstein, Colin Wyers, Ken Funck
Boston, MA. Tuesday, March 15, 12 noon
Northeastern University Bookstore
Snell Library @ Northeastern
360 Huntington Ave
Boston, MA
BPers in attendance: Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe, Marc Normandin
Boston, MA. Tuesday, March 15, 7 PM
Boston University Bookstore
660 Beacon Street
Boston, MA
BPers in attendance: Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe, Marc Normandin
Princeton, NJ, March 23, 7 PM
Barnes & Noble, Marketfair
3535 Us Route 1, Princeton, NJ
BPers in attendance: Tommy Bennett, Ben Lindbergh, Cliff Corcoran, Steven Goldman, Jay Jaffe and more.
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Thanks in advance!
I'm hoping for a nicer B&N venue this year.
I hope the MarketFair B&N prepares for a decent turnout that plans on hanging out for a few hours (as I remember the bum's rush we got in Philly).
It sounds like a great event - I'm planning to drive up from Delaware County, PA.
On the chance that folks want to hang out after the event, there's a nice restaurant/bar a few steps away in the same mall (Big Fish).
"Predicted the collapse of Pablo Sandoval" ... Oh did you now? When you wrote in his blurb: "Sandoval is not the sort of player where pat assertions about regression to leaguewide marks for line-drive rates or BABIP mean much. Like Vladimir Guerrero, his exceptional plate coverage makes him more dangerous because he won't just try to hit your pitch; he can hit your pitch. You don't copy it or coach it; you just enjoy it." Yeah, nailed that one. PECOTA predicted .315 BA, 21 HR.
Adam Lind didn't have anything negative in his writeup and got a 27hr, .282/.343/.492 projection from PECOTA.
And who takes credit for predicting "collapse" for Todd Helton and Miguel Tejada?
I know it shouldn't irk me, but it does. Either get more things right or stop making up reasons to boast. This is truly absurd.
You answered the question I was about to ask: How do I easily find the list of big dropoff's / gainers (the bold predictions that will potentially make the cover of the '12 edition) without sifting thru all the writeups looking for elliptical hints.
As you might guess, I was the proud owner of both last year.
Thanks.
Re PECOTA: As in every year that we've done the book, PECOTA gets revised versions as we tinker with the system, and later we incorporate information from the depth charts. Obviously, the book represents a moment frozen in time. The later versions represent a combination of refined methods and additional information.
I liked the essay and comments sections (and yes, there were a few typos) here and there. What I found profoundly distracting was the pitching section and the lineouts. It seemed that the Games and Games Started columns in the pitching section would get flipped around often and in the lineouts, people were shown to throw 200+ innings. Now, maybe 200 innings was supposed to be 20.0, but still... I'd like to think between the person(s) who outputted the stats, the person(s) who put together the player profiles into a chapter, the person(s) who reviewed the chapter and/or book, it would've been caught.
One of the other distracting things included every minor league third baseman the D'backs having Johnny Bench as a comparison. Also, as I recall, comparables were supposed to be players who played the same position yet I saw a few other out-of-position comps.
Usually my minor beef about the Annual is that the fielding numbers don't match up with the comments on fielding. So, I'm hoping this is just a problem in the Arizona chapter, but as the first chapter of the book, it really got things off on a bit of a sour note. I understand there's a rush to produce the best book possible as late as possible, but something like stat column flipping should've been caught way before that.
What I can't take credit for, are the 200 career games Johnny Bench played at 3rd. I've suggested, as an article topic, how often PECOTA will give there prospects in the same system similar comps. Is that because teams like the same kind of player? Teach them to hit the same way? A translation issue that makes them look more similar than they are? We'll see if they take me up on it.
Regarding Bench, I realize that's not on the publisher. My understanding is that comparables are based on how similar players at similar ages with similar skill sets and positions.
Now all I gotta do is find a replacement for Wainwright in my league...
Examples:
Ryan Ludwick
book: .275/.344/.485
spreadsheet(2/7): .251/.325/.433
change in OPS -.71 !!
Cameron Maybin
book: .271/.341/.425
speadsheet: .247/.323/.375
change in OPS -.68!
Dexter Fowler
book: .257/.345/.381
speadsheet: .277/.359/.427
change in OPS +.60!
Carlos Gonzalez
book: .283/.338/.485
speadsheet .303/.353/.531
change in OPS +.61!
These are just a few examples that jumped out at.. It appears to me that the PECOTA projections in the book may be park neutral projections based on the direction and pattern of adjustments in the speadsheet.
If so, it would be great if you guys would come clean and admit that, as these changes are obviously material ones that will affect decisions. Appreciate your response.
More numbers that make no sense:
Aaron Hicks: 1%/2%/0%
Mike Trout: 1%/8%/0%
Michael Pineda: 6%/9%/2%
Julio Teheran: 4%/4%/4%
Teheran's is especially interesting...with both his breakout and improve percentages the same, I guess I could assume that he's got a 0% chance of improving just a little bit?
I could go on and on, but something is wrong with this part of PECOTA this year. Please help me understand...
I pre-ordered the book and have received it but am not looking at it as I type.
From memory, the '10 book had SIERA ... the '11 book doesn't and rather only has FRA.
Shouldn't your recently developed metric that best predicts ERA be included?