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Last Update: 02-01

Welcome! All Depth Charts are available to Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy subscribers. If you aren't a subscriber, the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies depth charts are free for your perusal.

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How To Use The Depth Charts

The Depth Charts are playing time-weighted projections for each player which then build up to a team projection. The result of this team projection is in the upper-left corner of each team’s depth chart. Here you’ll find the team’s projected record, runs scored, runs allowed, and triple-slash stats (AVG/OBP/SLG).

In both the position player and pitcher sections, boldfacing indicates a starting player at a position--someone who is getting at least 50% of the team's playing time at a single position for Position Players, or a projected rotation member or closer for Pitchers.

When reading the statistics, only PA and IP are broken out for each individual entry. All other batting and pitching statistics are rolled up for the entire year. For example, a bench player could have playing time at different positions - e.g. a fourth outfielder is slated to get 130 PA in LF and 170 PA in RF. For all other statistics besides PT% and PA, the numbers next to each entry in LF and RF will be his aggregate statistics for the 300 PA. This works similarly for pitchers who both start and relieve.

The “Order” column is the spot in the lineup where the position player is expected to hit.

Click here to see the Philadelphia Phillies Position Players section.

American League, ranked by projected 2010 record

East W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
12 New York Yankees 94 68 836 707 .278 .366 .456
26 Boston Red Sox 92 70 806 697 .276 .356 .450
3 Tampa Bay Rays 90 72 799 714 .263 .351 .448
10 Baltimore Orioles 80 82 784 797 .280 .347 .449
3 Toronto Blue Jays 72 90 710 801 .258 .331 .429
Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
4 Minnesota Twins 83 79 784 764 .280 .353 .441
10 Chicago White Sox 80 82 731 738 .262 .337 .425
3 Detroit Tigers 78 84 734 764 .266 .341 .426
2 Cleveland Indians 76 86 741 792 .266 .348 .417
9 Kansas City Royals 75 87 728 789 .276 .342 .422
West W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
5 Texas Rangers 87 75 826 760 .278 .350 .464
5 Los Angeles Angels 80 82 764 775 .272 .341 .443
17 Oakland Athletics 80 82 726 733 .263 .343 .417
25 Seattle Mariners 77 85 713 752 .272 .345 .406

National League, ranked by projected 2010 record

East W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
16 Philadelphia Phillies 88 74 779 710 .269 .343 .439
12 Atlanta Braves 83 79 729 706 .269 .344 .416
2 Florida Marlins 81 81 747 748 .262 .340 .425
12 New York Mets 79 83 732 753 .265 .338 .418
19 Washington Nationals 76 86 688 737 .250 .328 .400
Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
16 St. Louis Cardinals 84 78 724 697 .265 .338 .415
5 Cincinnati Reds 82 80 709 702 .257 .329 .413
9 Chicago Cubs 79 83 709 725 .263 .336 .407
9 Milwaukee Brewers 79 83 746 765 .258 .333 .429
6 Houston Astros 76 86 697 743 .265 .330 .404
1 Pittsburgh Pirates 70 92 671 781 .252 .325 .395
West W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
4 Arizona Diamondbacks 87 75 746 692 .257 .335 .429
3 Colorado Rockies 86 76 768 717 .262 .343 .434
8 Los Angeles Dodgers 83 79 700 683 .263 .333 .406
14 San Francisco Giants 82 80 702 690 .268 .325 .418
3 San Diego Padres 71 91 654 752 .246 .322 .390


27 comments have been left for this report.

BP Comment Quick Links

hippoes
(31550)

Several batting orders are funny, but at least something is moving in the right direction.
It feels like the first day of spring :)

Jan 27, 2010 22:58 PM
rating: 1
 
murber74
(43057)

Nationals at 82-80? Woo-Hoo! Man, will my fellow Nats fans be happy!

Jan 28, 2010 12:37 PM
rating: 0
 
onegameref
(7693)

I guess that projection was temporary. It's tough to lose ground when the season hasn't started.

Feb 04, 2010 13:22 PM
rating: 0
 
TucsonTumbleweed
(31374)

The AL East looks like quite the race. I wonder if BP ever considered tabulating and posting a team's 90th and 10th percentile for wins? For example, while the Rays are projected to win 96 and the Yankees only 93, it is possible that the Rays 90th is 110 wins and the Yankees 90th is 115. I would think this data is already available from the projections that were created.

Jan 28, 2010 14:07 PM
rating: 4
 
West21
(16224)

A lot of teams allowing 800+ runs, are we reverting back to the steroid era?

Jan 28, 2010 22:08 PM
rating: 0
 
scoutingu
(19420)

the Pirates +118 rs????

Jan 28, 2010 22:43 PM
rating: 0
 
Squirrelmetrix
(48669)

no, -119

Jan 29, 2010 10:12 AM
rating: 0
 
scoutingu
(19420)

whoops.. PECOTA must have picked up a Milledge downturn as they just shaved off 83 of those 118 runs scored (over 2009 production). Interestingly, they also shaved 80 runs allowed. Hmm..

Feb 01, 2010 20:36 PM
rating: 0
 
Linus
(2505)

These are pretty much broken.

Jan 29, 2010 00:53 AM
rating: 1
 
giantsrainman
(31983)

Did you guys somehow forget to include 2009 stats in calculating these 2010 projections? I ask this for a couple of reasons. 1) 2009 stats are not included in the player cards. 2) Some projections (Edgar Renteria for instense) seem to actually have better 2010 forecasts then their 2009 forecasts where inspite of horrible 2009 seasons.

Jan 29, 2010 02:11 AM
rating: 0
 
EnderCN
(20565)

I'd look into the defensive model for the Brewers or something. It isn't a great staff but all of the projected ERA's seem high compared to other sources. With one or two being high I wouldn't think twice about it but they all are high.

Jan 29, 2010 08:19 AM
rating: 0
 
ashitaka
(32413)

Evidently these have been updated. Shouldn't wins and losses both add up to 2430, and total RS and total RA be equal?

Jan 29, 2010 18:51 PM
rating: 0
 
swarmee
(40459)

No, because that would lead to worse overall projections.

Jan 30, 2010 10:00 AM
rating: 0
 
nateetan
(51057)

After the update.

So every NL team will be between 76 and 86 wins, except for the Pirates. With that close of a range virtually every possible standing order is within the range of the standard deviation.

Jan 29, 2010 21:29 PM
rating: 0
 
PWHjort
(47049)

Astros?

Jan 29, 2010 22:19 PM
rating: 0
 
PWHjort
(47049)

The Braves are projected to score 745 runs and allow 702. The pythagenpat for that is 85 wins. The Braves are projected to win 85 by PECOTA.

The Cardinals are projected to score 745 runs and allow 702. The pythagenpat for that is 85 wins. The Cardinals are projected to win 86 by PECOTA.

Please explain.

Jan 29, 2010 23:13 PM
rating: 1
 
ferret
(20608)

You are predicting no NL team will win more than 86 games this season. Has this ever happened before in a full season?

Jan 30, 2010 00:50 AM
rating: -2
 
EnderCN
(20565)

They aren't predicting anything, they are projecting. Even if they knew without a shadow of the doubt the true talent level of every team in baseball you would still see variations in wins and losses based on injuries and just random variation. If somehow the sport reached true parity and every single team was exactly .500 in talent there would still be some team that won like 90 games.

Jan 30, 2010 07:59 AM
rating: 1
 
TucsonTumbleweed
(31374)

Good reminder as a projection is very different from a prediction. That is one reason Id love to see a range for each team (percentiles for wins) just like we see for players. When I try (Im not typically successful) to explain BP projections to traditional baseball fans (who follow counting stats mostly and ave/obp/slug at best) I frame it that if MLB would play the 2010 season 100 times this projection is the most likely to occur but that their would be a wide range of results within that.

Jan 30, 2010 13:34 PM
rating: 2
 
mikedee
(37942)

Only the AL East projects to have 90+ win teams, and 3 at that.

Little fluff going on here.

Jan 31, 2010 02:16 AM
rating: -2
 
gaparch
(48662)

Mike - learn your history. Its been the best division in baseball for more than a decade.

Feb 01, 2010 08:15 AM
rating: 0
 
John Douglass
(53235)

It sure is. But that doesn't make Mike wrong. If we go back to 1996, the last 14 years since the strike shortened seasons, 80.1% (68 out of 84) of division champions have had 90 or more wins.

There have been 26 teams in those 14 seasons (or almost 2 per year) who won 90+ and didn't win their division, or just under 2/season. So in the last decade plus you're referencing, MLB averages 6.7 90+ win teams/season.

In those 14 seasons, three times all the division champions have been 90+ win teams. Never have more than two division champs won fewer than 90 games in that span.

We may see a bit more parity in baseball this year, due to economic factors squeezing the top down and the bottom up, but I think we'll still see the NLC, ALW, NLE, in addition to the ALE, won by 90+ win teams.

Feb 02, 2010 07:56 AM
rating: 0
 
John Douglass
(53235)

I meant to add also that in that same 14-year span of 84 division races, only 3.6% of the time (2006 ALC and 2002 NLW and 2002 ALW) have three teams in the same division won 90+.

We're far more likely to see 6-7 90+ win teams spread over 4-5 divisions than only three such teams in one division.

Feb 02, 2010 08:03 AM
rating: 0
 
EnderCN
(20565)

Sure, but 1 of those 3 teams will get hit by a ton of injuries and drop out of the 90. When you look at actual results you always have to remember that they don't mirror the starting talent level. Some team will have 81 win talent but win 87 games because of luck etc. These numbers shouldn't fit a historical mold.

Feb 04, 2010 14:04 PM
rating: 1
 
Eric1G
(459)

As of today's update (2/1); PECOTA is predicting the fewest runs scored in an American League season since 1995. Just FYI.

Feb 01, 2010 12:34 PM
rating: 0
 
merussell23
(1785)

I may be reading this wrong, but why does every NL team seem to have a DH 40% of the time?

Feb 03, 2010 05:02 AM
rating: 0
 
mojocrush
(52470)

All the division predictions above seem reasonable with the exception of the AL West. I do not believe that Texas will be number one or Seattle last. More like:
LA Angels
Seattle
Texas
Oakland
Granted the AL West is arguably the hardest division to guess the future on but seems more reasonable to me. I believe it will be LA, Seattle, and Texas battling it out for the top 3 spots in a tight finish with Oakland bringing up the rear.

Feb 08, 2010 09:08 AM
rating: 0
 
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