I asked you, and you told me what you wanted to see, and here it is: the first position in my revamped fantasy rankings. We will kick things off with first base soon enough, but I have some things I want to go over first.
- Players are no longer ranked by number (the 1-20 system). Instead, I am implementing a tiered system using stars (five stars is the best, one is the lesser of your options). These stars are equal across positions to make comparisons between them easier-for example, there are three five-star first basemen, but there may be more or fewer than that at other positions-if it comes to it, the first player at a position may be a four-star option. You can derive positional scarcity from the number of four- and five-star players available and make decisions from there.
- I am no longer just covering 20 players per position-each list may be a bit different in length, but this first list with hitters is 35 players long. This should let players in AL- or NL-only league be as prepared as those in mixed leagues. There are two things I did to make this happen. First, I used the depth charts as my guide (this is also where the projections listed come from) and picked the starting player for every team at the position, giving me a guaranteed 30 choices, minimum. Second, for players with multiple position eligibility, I included them in the list for each position. It is possible they will have different star ratings at different positions, though, so make sure you reference the correct set of rankings. Victor Martinez is a three-star first baseman-it’s a very crowded position, and his numbers are very average for it-but at catcher, where the talent pool is shallower, Martinez is worth more. This allows me to show you which position a player is most valuable.
- If a player is ahead of another player within the same tier, it does not necessarily mean I like them more. It means I typed their name first. The point of the tiers is that the players within each one should all have similar production-if one of them performs significantly better or worse than expected, then we can re-evaluate at midseason or during the year, but think of the star rating as their true or expected talent level.
Using tiers and significantly increasing the number of players covered were the two requests I saw the most when I opened the floor to you. Though I didn’t see it mentioned nearly as often, including players at each available position seemed worthwhile. I will try to release a top-250 list eventually, but I hope these star ratings help you to construct your own in the meantime, given I’m producing them in a way that makes position-to-position comparisons easy. I think the rankings-and therefore our fantasy teams-will be that much better for these changes, so thank you for your input. We’re still early enough that comments and suggestions regarding the format are appreciated, so don’t be shy.
Five Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Albert Pujols 686 .322/.443/.577 97 34 108 6 Prince Fielder 669 .287/.409/.586 87 41 107 3 Miguel Cabrera 686 .304/.390/.555 86 37 103 4
One thing before we get going-these runs scored totals look low to me across the board, so just make a mental note that the number should probably be higher, but also keep in mind how they fare relative to other players. So, don’t think “Pujols will score 97 runs,” think “Pujols is expected to score more runs than Prince Fielder.”
Pujols is still the top pick in the game in my mind-this projection seems low to me, and I wouldn’t be shocked by another season with over .600 slugging for the Cardinals star. Fielder is a monster, but he won’t have the batting average of Pujols or as many runs scored given fewer opportunities. He will, however, go smash pretty often, enough to lead the league most likely. He will contribute to every category except steals, and you can’t ask for much more given those numbers. Cabrera may not have third-base eligibility anymore after not appearing there in 2009, but his numbers hold up anywhere on the diamond. He may come close to leading this group in homers, but will do it with a better batting average than Fielder. You can’t go wrong with any of these three, but if there was a Five-Star-Plus-One rating, it would go to Pujols.
Four Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Adrian Gonzalez 686 .287/.393/.533 91 34 102 1 Justin Morneau 669 .288/.372/.518 86 30 107 1 Kevin Youkilis 648 .290/.393/.506 84 24 88 5 Mark Teixeira 648 .292/.395/.534 85 32 105 2 Joey Votto 648 .294/.386/.524 80 30 94 8 Lance Berkman 648 .285/.404/.514 89 29 90 9 Ryan Howard 632 .268/.370/.543 86 37 114 3 Kendry Morales 632 .294/.347/.513 74 29 82 1
If Gonzalez weren’t in Petco Park for half his games, he would be a five-star first baseman. Alas, he will be there for 81 games unless he is dealt, so he’s here in all of his unadjusted glory. Morneau and Votto are very similar in my mind-I feel that Votto is and will be the better player when all is said and done, but they are close enough that they both make the four-star section. I’m a bit more optimistic about Youkilis than PECOTA, at least on its weighted mean forecast. I’m thinking maybe a little bit more batting average and a slugging percentage-around 30 points loftier-which fits in nicely with the rest of this bunch.
Teixeira will absolutely score more than 85 runs in that Yankees lineup in that stadium, but the rest of the line seems right to me. I don’t think 100-plus runs pushes him into five-star territory, though-he’s another just-missed in my mind, given that honor applies to all positions, not just this one. For a player dealing with injuries, Berkman had a pretty great season in 2009, but he’s not top-tier at the position any longer. He’s still worth a look, just not a first-round one. Howard is the closest thing to a three-category player in the four-star range, but he destroys those three categories. Expect more runs scored than that out of Howard-if he can keep his batting average up, he may be the class of this group. Morales is here because I expect a higher slugging percentage as well as more runs and RBI from him, matching him up with the rest of this group.
Three Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Adam LaRoche 616 .280/.358/.477 69 21 79 1 Nick Swisher 602 .249/.376/.465 76 26 73 2 Carlos Pena 595 .237/.381/.518 75 35 89 1 Billy Butler 632 .299/.371/.497 70 24 85 1 Michael Cuddyer 566 .275/.354/.462 70 19 67 6 Victor Martinez 560 .290/.367/.471 60 19 78 1 Chris Davis 480 .279/.336/.535 64 27 73 2 Derrek Lee 648 .287/.376/.472 80 21 78 5 Adam Dunn 632 .250/.387/.493 75 31 87 3
Did you expect to see LaRoche listed anywhere besides what would be considered the spot for average choices? You know what you’re getting if you have LaRoche on your team, and it’s very similar to every other player in this tier. Swisher is not a first baseman, but he is eligible in many leagues-the low batting average hurts him, but being in the Yankees lineup with that OBP makes him valuable. ena’s batting average hurts his fantasy value significantly, but he’s not a bad option at the right pick or price, given he has titanic power and will drive in plenty of Rays despite the lack of contact.
Butler has a better batting average than most of these guys, but his power isn’t quite there yet, so he’s still in the three-star section for now. Being in Kansas City’s lineup also doesn’t help him. Cuddyer is eligible at first despite being an outfielder-PECOTA doesn’t expect him to hit as well as last year, but his line still works at the position if you miss out on better players or just want more flexibility on your roster. Martinez is, as stated, a better option at catcher, but if you want a more versatile version of LaRoche, then he’s your guy-especially with all of the average, runs and RBI benefits that playing in Fenway Park in the Red Sox lineup entails.
PECOTA likes Davis a bit more than I do for 2010-I think he’s capable of that kind of power, but let’s see if he can keep the batting average up consistently in order to pull it off. I’m not sold on Lee’s 2009 output-I expect something more along the lines of 2006-08, as PECOTA does. He had 12 “just enough” homers last year, but he also hit a ton of bombs that kept his average homer distance up. Given his age and other recent performances, and the fact that his HR/FB percentage shot up to pre-2006 levels out of nowhere, I’m inclined to think fluke more than new level of performance. Dunn is closer to four stars than three if you could guarantee his batting average would stay up, but I wouldn’t put money on that.
Two Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB James Loney 618 .295/.359/.444 61 14 81 5 Paul Konerko 595 .254/.363/.466 62 26 70 1 Todd Helton 557 .294/.412/.449 61 13 60 0 Aubrey Huff 557 .280/.345/.466 60 18 70 2 Daniel Murphy 543 .284/.345/.466 62 15 70 5 Nick Johnson 510 .283/.433/.431 60 11 59 1 Jeff Clement 471 .251/.341/.445 53 17 57 1 Matt LaPorta 409 .269/.353/.480 48 16 52 1 Garrett Atkins 367 .284/.351/.460 51 16 65 1 Jorge Cantu 353 .288/.353/.467 64 19 74 3 Troy Glaus 326 .255/.361/.439 44 14 50 1
Loney has the batting average and may have the RBI like he did last year, but he’s going to miss out on runs and power, which is why he’s here and not higher. Konerko is a good option for homers, but I don’t think he brings much to the table that you can’t get in a better form elsewhere. Helton will get on base and hit for average, but his power has all but disappeared. Huff and Murphy have very similar projections, neither of which is appealing for a first baseman. As long as he’s on the field, Johnson will pick up plenty of runs thanks to that OBP. The lack of power is a pain, but he’s capable of helping you in a few categories. The Pirates lineup won’t do Clement any favors, but he’s no worse than the rest of this group.
LaPorta has the best chance of this group to move into the three-star category, but PECOTA doesn’t feel like he’s there yet on his weighted mean, and the addition of Russell Branyan may cut into his playing time as well. Atkins’ projection seems a little optimistic to me. Even when his BABIP rebounds, the switch to the American League-the East, specifically, as well as moving out of Coors Field, makes me think this one is a little too promising. Cantu is set to split time with Gaby Sanchez according to the depth charts, and play at third base as well, but he’s still eligible. He’s a much better option at third than first. Glaus is somewhat of a question mark-he could rebound and be much better than this tier, but given the depth at the position, I did not feel moved to put him any higher.
One Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Lyle Overbay 543 .257/.353/.425 54 15 53 1 Daric Barton 533 .263/.365/.423 63 12 54 2 Casey Kotchman 457 .276/.354/.424 46 11 56 1 Gaby Sanchez 289 .279/.355/.439 32 8 34 3
If you are forced into drafting one of these players, chances are good you are in an auction league and spent all of your money elsewhere, or are in an AL- or NL-only league and somehow missed out on the massive number of first base-eligible players that are much more deserving. You can do without any of these guys, though Sanchez has the most potential to do better than his forecast given his minor-league production the past two seasons, but he’s still a bit of a question mark as well.
Thank you for reading
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For what it's worth, you won't have to wait long to see. I'm going to be releasing a set of rankings every day this week instead of just one or two per week.
I think that you missed Pablo Sandoval, however, as CBS has him with 26 games at 1B last year.
I think Helton and Konerko should be in the three star group and Davis and Cuddyer in the two-star group since I think Helton/Konerko are more consistent. Also, mention should be given on Pujols's elbow surgery and any other injuries and/or surgeries in terms of their tier ranking. Supposedly, Pujols is pain-free for the first time since 2003.
I'm starting to think Pujols is a Terminator and it doesn't matter if he's missing a limb or not, he's still the best player in baseball.
As for Helton and Konerko, we both know what they are, and at a position this deep I think they fit into two-star. Cuddyer and Davis have a bit more range in their performance, but I think their upside earns them three-stars. The cool thing about this format is what you just said though--if you want to interchange players between different star ratings, you can, very easily, for your own lists, instead of agonizing over a specific number.
In other words - what does the star rating translate to? If it translates to draft order, then it should completely factor in positional scarcity. If it translates to absolute impact on the team, then it should completely ignore position and VMar should be 3 stars everywhere. Am I missing something?
This is still a work in progress, given how much we're overhauling it at once, so I appreciated this insightful feedback.
If you can draft a first baseman with eligibility at, say, catcher, then if you play him at 1B on your team, he may only be equivalent to the other 3-star players at 1B. But if you intend to play him at catcher, he's worth far more to your team's success. So, he should have a higher star-rating at positions where performance is more scarce.
This makes perfect sense to me, and I don't see any reason to change it. For fantasy purposes.
"If a player is ahead of another player within the same tier, it does not necessarily mean I like them more. It means I typed their name first."
I wanted to clarify that for a reason. I also explained in the paragraph beneath the four-star section that I like Youkilis more than his PECOTA forecast:
"I'm a bit more optimistic about Youkilis than PECOTA, at least on its weighted mean forecast. I'm thinking maybe a little bit more batting average and a slugging percentage—around 30 points loftier—which fits in nicely with the rest of this bunch."
I just have a hard time envisioning Mark Teixeira not being an elite fantasy 1B this season. He's been one each of the last 2 seasons at the very least and, unless this is a keeper league I guess, strikes me as an equal option to Miguel Cabrera.
Two questions:
1. Has your inbox given you a sense of how many BP readers still use the standard 5x5 in fantasy baseball -- and in particular, how many use batting average? I'm used to adjusting lists like these for OBP/OPS, and I know how entrenched AVG is in everyday commentary and, presumably, fantasy. Still, I'd love to see BP be Shaw's unreasonable man, and try to adapt the fantasy world to the real-life stat one.
2. Can any fantasy baseball writer avoid the "I wish Adrian wasn't in Petco" trope? If I were a Padres fan I'd be sick to death of seeing writers wish him out of San Diego.
1) Yes, loads of BP readers are playing standard 5x5, while many others modify the stats included but still play in a 5x5 format. There are more of you playing roto than head-to-head I believe, based on e-mails. A growing number are also playing Scoresheet, which is something we are aiming to increase coverage of this year. Stay tuned.
In-season I try to make use of real-life stats in fantasy that I find are effective for analysis, but many of them don't make it into fantasy leagues, sadly.
2) I am a Padres fan, and I am sick of it, but it's true.
Teams like Tampa Bay could offer twice that of Boston. Give it a rest! If your SD would you take Boston's prospect plus leftovers or Crawford, Davis, and Brignac?
Is PECOTA ready for prime time yet? or still in "beta"?
Seeing that there are just two separation points is extremely useful to me. With tiers, you are basically seeing that the prediction error bars overwhelm the differences between many individual players. If players #4 through #8 are all basically the same, seeing individual rankings within that group may lead you to false conclusions about the projections for each of those players.
Take the tiers as a guide and then adjust each player based on your personal feelings, league format, etc.
To me, grouping players into subjective tiers, instead of putting a dollar value or ADP # next to him, is dumbing down the value of your lists. Pujols is a lot, lot, more valuable than Miggy, but they are in the same tier. Miggy, meanwhile, is pretty damn close to AGonz, who is a tier below.
So what real conclusion can we take away from the tiers?
Grouping players together like this, and drawing arbitrary lines between "groups" only makes sense when there are actual clear delineations between distinct groups of players. but in the real life (ha!) fantasy world, there is a constant sliding scale of talent, and to create "tiers" creates differences where none really exist.
In real life, he is.
In fantasy, not so much, at least according to PECOTA's projections...as listed above. They've got Pujols a little bit better in each category, except homers where Miggy has three more.
I would agree that Pujols was a lot more valuable than Cabrera last season: batting average very close, then Pujols had edges of 13 homers, 32 RBIs, 28 runs, and 10 steals.
I'd side with PECOTA, though, based on their last three years averaged:
Pujols: .337, 108 runs, 118 RBIs, 39 HRs, 8 SB.
Miggy: .312, 91 runs, 116 RBIs, 35 HRs, 3 SBs
That is to say, Pujols is clearly worth a bit more, but not as much as a "tier jump" at any other position. (I'll take Cabrera and a Tier 1 SS over Pujols and a Tier 2 SS, for example.)
You can look at the tiers as well as the ADPs. If you see that Billy Butler is going 6 rounds later than Youkilis, then you know you can wait for a slight downgrade. I much prefer tiers.
And yeah, most first baseman within a single tier are quite similar to each other with the vaaiance due to those slightly more likely to hit for a better average, or hit more home runs. It's not like 5-10 years ago when there were first basemen who helped in stolen bases, for example.
Pujols' 34 HR, 108 RBI line would basically tie him for his lowest output in seven years. Howard has had at least 45 HR / 136 RBI four straight years yet is projected at 37/111 this year. Teixiera/Fielder/Pujols/Howard combined for 539 RBI last year, and PECOTA projects them at 434.
I can understand BP's incentive to project conservatively, but for fantasy purposes PECOTA's projections for power hitters are basically useless to me.
This format seems very useful to me...the rest of the stuff I can do in my head during a draft. There's only so much of Marc to go around, and I'd prefer to see him use his talents creating more output, than "polishing" this stuff, which I can do myself.
do your $ values for 1b, rank them in descending order, and draw some lines somewhere every few players. that's basically what this is.
that's not a personal attack on Marc, who I think is very smart and has helped me a ton over the years. it's an attack on the "tier" format in general.
and to reiterate:
tiers make sense, if, in your league, you have 1b with $ values like
$50
$45
$45
$45
$37
$37
$37
but,
1) in real life it doesn't work that way and
2) tiers STILL wouldn't really give you any extra information beyond the $ amounts
when the rankings are really more like:
$53
$41
$37
$36
$30
$26
$24
$22
$21
$19
$14
$12
then where the heck are the tiers? you could make an argument for all sorts of things, but none of them give you information beyond the $ values
I just was wondering which of the 4/3 star 1st baseman you could see breaking out. I keep hearing Votto as the next elite first baseman but I was wondering who you'd place money on and if it's not Votto what you think of him.
Thanks and I love your work!
Also, when we have the blogs running, it will be easier to make corrections to things like that, as I could just throw a post up detailing my thoughts on someone like Reynolds or Sandoval at 1B. I would prefer to do it right the right first, but things happen.
Also, I love the way the stars work across the positions. I was going to request something similar before but I couldn't figure out how to work it out. I'd hate to overlook Victor Martinez as my second 1B because I've already got Mauer at C--but I'd hate to draft Martinez like an elite catcher if all I need is a 1B.
Thanks Marc!
Marc just gave us Cliff Notes on the data and listed similar players's projections side by side. How much more help for the draft do you need?
Sandoval and Reynolds are pretty big omissions though... Shake of the dust Marc, Spring Training is upon us!
Best,
EB
I'll be brief, as my comments mirror a number of those already made. I think the tiers are a good addition, although I would hope/like you to put the guys within the tiers in the order that you would rank them, even if that goes without any further comments or written values.
I'm happy to decide myself whether Adrian Gonzalez is more valuable than Ryan Howard, but it's fun to see how you would tier the guys within the star groups.
Thanks.
The only other piece that I think people would find of value is the actual value of players relative to draft position or dollar amount.
As an example, Morneau and Berkman are certainly going to go lower than their what their predictive performance will indicate, if you are in agreement with the numbers PECOTA is spitting out.
Is that enough to bump Dunn up to 4 stars?
However, as I just said, this superiority is contingent on there being an appropriate choice of the NUMBER OF TIERS. For example, a two-tier system for these 1Bs would clearly be inferior to the old ranking system, whereas a six or seven tier system would probably be much better. In general, you want _as many tiers as accuracy permits_, or at worst some compromise between that and usability. (Seven tiers might be better than 28, for instance, purely for reasons of convenience.)
So the important question is really: how many tiers ought each position have? Offhand I'd say something like six or seven, although it might actually depend on which position you're talking about. It would presumably also vary from season to season, assuming that talent varies from year to year.
Of course, fixing the number of tiers by the sort of process I'm talking about would mean that you might have a different number of tiers for different positions. Some, I'm sure, will find that a negative. But given the degree of controversy about the importance of positional scarcity to begin with, I'm not sure it's really so appealing/useful to be able to say "oh, this guy is a three star 1B but a five star C."