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He's probably very handsome. Lars Anderson
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats L
Age 20
6' 4"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 GRN 1B 533 69 35 3 10 69 71 112 2 4 -1.0 .288 .385 .443 .149 .228 .310 .348 .231 -19.1 110-1B 8 2.1
2007 LNC 1C 47 13 2 0 1 9 11 9 0 0 0.2 .343 .489 .486 .304 .243 .383 .378 .273 1.2 0.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 5:50 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 639 76 42 3 11 76 72 156 4 3 0.0 .264 .350 .410 -.005 .257 .346 .419 .272 6.5 149-1B 5 3.7
75o 621 69 39 3 10 70 66 155 4 3 0.0 .256 .338 .392 -.054 .249 .334 .401 .262 -0.9 145-1B 4 3.0
60o 596 59 36 3 8 62 59 153 4 3 0.0 .246 .322 .369 -.117 .239 .319 .377 .248 -9.9 139-1B 4 2.1
50o 583 55 35 3 7 58 56 152 4 3 0.0 .240 .315 .358 -.149 .234 .311 .366 .241 -14.0 137-1B 4 1.6
40o 564 48 33 3 6 53 51 150 4 3 0.0 .233 .304 .342 -.193 .227 .300 .349 .231 -19.6 132-1B 3 1.1
25o 552 45 31 2 5 49 48 149 4 4 0.0 .228 .296 .331 -.222 .222 .293 .339 .224 -23.0 130-1B 3 0.7
10o 520 36 28 2 3 41 40 146 3 4 0.0 .217 .279 .307 -.291 .211 .276 .314 .207 -30.2 122-1B 3 0.0
Weighted Mean 630 62 38 3 8 64 61 164 4 4 0.0 .242 .317 .361 -.139 .235 .314 .369 .243 -14.3 147-1B 4 2.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

44%

71%

11%

7%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 20) 630 62 38 3 8 64 61 164 4 4 0.0 .242 .317 .361 -.139 .235 .314 .369 .243 -14.3 147-1B 4 2.1
2009 (age 21) 627 67 38 3 10 67 62 155 5 4 0.0 .252 .328 .383 -.085 .249 .330 .399 .254 -5.0 147-1B 5 2.7
2010 (age 22) 616 67 38 2 10 67 64 144 4 3 0.0 .253 .333 .387 -.072 .250 .334 .402 .257 -3.0 144-1B 6 3.0
2011 (age 23) 592 64 37 3 11 67 61 140 4 3 -0.1 .254 .333 .397 -.058 .251 .335 .412 .260 -1.1 139-1B 4 2.7
2012 (age 24) 595 74 39 3 12 74 69 133 5 4 -0.1 .278 .363 .436 .061 .274 .365 .454 .283 11.1 139-1B 6 3.4
2013 (age 25) 575 65 35 3 11 66 67 125 4 3 -0.1 .263 .350 .409 -.008 .260 .351 .425 .270 3.6 135-1B 6 2.5
2014 (age 26) 628 77 42 4 12 71 71 130 4 4 -0.1 .271 .353 .426 .025 .267 .354 .443 .275 4.7 147-1B 10 2.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .215 .287 .312
vs RHP .251 .332 .393
Split -.036 -.045 -.081
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.8 1.4 2.1 $2,475,000 -7.4 1.3
2009 1.4 1.3 2.7 $3,975,000 2.3 4.3
2010 1.5 1.5 3.0 $5,350,000 5.9 5.2
2011 1.5 1.2 2.7 $5,275,000 5.9 7.1
2012 2.3 1.2 3.4 $9,875,000 18.4 18.4
2013 1.5 1.0 2.5 $6,550,000 10.0 9.6
2014 1.3 1.0 2.3 $6,650,000 10.5 11.0
Peak 16.7 $27,075,000 65.1 64.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .262 .241 .224 .243
2009 .267 .249 .229 .254
2010 .266 .257 .231 .257
2011 .263 .249 .232 .260
2012 .304 .279 .250 .283
2013 .287 .264 .240 .270
2014 .289 .269 .249 .275


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 7% 0% 44%
2009 9% 3% 62%
2010 10% 5% 65%
2011 21% 6% 63%
2012 32% 23% 72%
2013 39% 30% 71%
2014 62% 50% 71%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

41

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chris Weinke 1992 40 11 Brian Turner 2003 33
2 Mike Darr 1979 36 12 David Wright 1971 33
3 Mike Whitlock 1981 36 13 Casey Rogowski 1982 33
4 Bronson Sardinha 1970 36 14 Kelly Johnson 1960 33
5 Chris Duncan 1973 35 15 Nate Rolison 2007 32
6 Brent Clevlen 1992 35 16 Mark Osborne 1975 32
7 Nick Johnson 1975 34 17 Dernell Stenson 1969 32
8 Xavier Paul 1975 34 18 Tate Seefried 2000 31
9 Jeremy Hermida 1957 34 19 Eric Duncan 1979 30
10 Ryan Langerhans 1998 33 20 Steve Cox 2005 30

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