Biographical

Portrait of Casey Kelly

Casey Kelly PCubs

Cubs Player Cards | Cubs Team Audit | Cubs Depth Chart

2017 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 27)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
83.7 4.73 1.49 55 4 5 0 -0.3
Birth Date10-4-1989
Height6' 3"
Weight215 lbs
Age27 years, 7 months, 19 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2013
2014
-0.42015
-0.52016
-0.32017
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2012 SDN MLB 6 6 29.0 2 3 0 39 10 26 5 .260 98 12.1 3.1 1.6 8.1 57% .366 .322 1.69 4.82 6.21 100 5.75 131.8 -0.2
2015 SDN MLB 3 2 11.3 0 2 0 19 3 7 1 .272 100 15.1 2.4 0.8 5.6 47% .409 .345 1.94 4.13 7.94 107 7.86 183.6 -0.4
2016 ATL MLB 10 1 21.7 0 3 0 30 7 7 1 .259 88 12.5 2.9 0.4 2.9 45% .341 .319 1.71 4.38 5.82 115 6.89 152.6 -0.5
CareerMLB19962.02808820407.2629512.82.91.05.851%.365.3251.744.546.391076.54148.5-1.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2009 GRN A 9 9 48.3 6 1 0 32 9 39 0 .266 95 6.0 1.7 0.0 7.3 54% .237 .181 0.85 2.39 1.12 90 3.31 95.3
2009 SLM A+ 8 8 46.7 1 4 0 33 7 35 4 .257 101 6.4 1.3 0.8 6.7 53% .221 .211 0.86 3.47 3.08 83 2.83 92.1
2010 PME AA 21 21 95.0 3 5 0 118 35 81 10 .260 109 11.2 3.3 0.9 7.7 47% .361 .293 1.61 4.19 5.31 95 4.17 100.6
2010 PEJ Wnt 4 4 16.0 1 0 0 19 4 11 2 .000 10.7 2.2 1.1 6.2 0% .283 .000 1.44 5.74 6.75 0 0.00 0.0
2011 SAN AA 27 27 142.3 11 6 0 153 46 105 8 .250 107 9.7 2.9 0.5 6.6 57% .324 .249 1.40 3.76 3.98 97 3.46 91.9
2012 SDN MLB 6 6 29.0 2 3 0 39 10 26 5 .260 98 12.1 3.1 1.6 8.1 57% .366 .322 1.69 4.82 6.21 100 5.75 131.8
2012 SAN AA 3 3 16.7 0 1 0 11 3 18 1 .269 93 5.9 1.6 0.5 9.7 45% .244 .219 0.84 2.61 3.78 76 2.08 80.5
2012 TUC AAA 2 2 12.0 0 0 0 12 0 14 0 .278 108 9.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 55% .364 .205 1.00 1.57 2.25 75 1.97 77.0
2012 PDR Rk 3 3 9.0 0 1 0 10 0 7 0 .276 107 10.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 45% .303 .285 1.11 3.11 4.00 92 3.20 92.5
2014 LEL A+ 2 2 8.3 0 0 0 14 0 9 0 .294 78 15.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 50% .500 .369 1.68 1.57 4.32 90 3.71 97.7
2014 SAN AA 2 2 12.0 1 0 0 11 1 8 0 .266 92 8.2 0.8 0.0 6.0 49% .297 .204 1.00 2.53 0.75 98 3.17 92.4
2015 SDN MLB 3 2 11.3 0 2 0 19 3 7 1 .272 100 15.1 2.4 0.8 5.6 47% .409 .345 1.94 4.13 7.94 107 7.86 183.6
2015 SAN AA 27 14 82.0 1 8 1 94 34 60 7 .259 106 10.3 3.7 0.8 6.6 51% .323 .290 1.56 4.26 4.94 110 5.25 111.2
2015 ELP AAA 4 3 15.7 1 2 0 20 5 14 0 .257 116 11.5 2.9 0.0 8.0 47% .408 .258 1.60 3.15 6.32 90 3.16 93.1
2016 ATL MLB 10 1 21.7 0 3 0 30 7 7 1 .259 88 12.5 2.9 0.4 2.9 45% .341 .319 1.71 4.38 5.82 115 6.89 152.6
2016 GWN AAA 15 12 74.0 3 6 0 64 28 47 6 .248 102 7.8 3.4 0.7 5.7 48% .266 .241 1.24 4.21 3.53 115 5.93 113.2
2017 IOW AAA 2 2 8.0 1 0 0 11 4 7 1 .271 107 12.4 4.5 1.1 7.9 36% .370 .303 1.88 5.80 6.75 84 2.21 43.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2012 501 0.4371 0.4311 0.7593 0.6164 0.2872 0.8593 0.5926 0.2407
2015 199 0.4774 0.4422 0.8523 0.6632 0.2404 0.9048 0.7200 0.1477
2016 364 0.4725 0.5110 0.8495 0.7093 0.3333 0.8934 0.7656 0.1505
Career10640.45670.46050.80760.65690.29420.87950.67560.1924

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-03-21 2014-09-29 60-DL 192 162 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2013-04-01 -
2013-03-22 2013-09-30 60-DL 192 162 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2013-04-01 -
2013-03-08 2013-03-22 Camp 14 0 Right Elbow Sprain Ulnar Collateral Ligament - -
2012-04-12 2012-08-10 Minors 120 110 Right Elbow Inflammation - -
2010-08-07 2010-09-07 Minors 31 0 Right Shoulder Strain Latissimus Dorsi -
2010-07-22 2010-07-31 Minors 9 0 Not Disclosed -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2016 ATL $
2015 SDN $
2014 SDN $501,400
2013 SDN $491,400
2012 SDN $
YearsDescriptionSalary
2 yrPrevious$992,800
2 yrTotal$992,800

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
2 y 83 dISE Baseball1 year (2016)

Details
  • 1 year (2016). Re-signed by Atlanta 3/16. Sent outright to Triple-A by Atlanta 11/2/16.
  • 1 year (2015). Re-signed by San Diego 3/10/15. Acquired by Atlanta in trade from San Diego 12/10/15.
  • 1 year/$0.5014M (2014). Re-signed by San Diego 3/3/14.
  • 1 year/$0.4914M (2013). Re-signed by San Diego 3/9/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by San Diego 8/27/12.
  • Acquired by San Diego in trade from Boston 12/6/10 (Adrian Gonzalez deal).
  • Drafted by Boston 2008 (1-30) (Sarasota HS, Fla.). $3M signing bonus.

2017 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 5.1 5.2 0.4 27 15 97.4 93 34 60 10 .270 1.30 3.88 4.43 7.1 0.8
80o 4.6 5.1 0.3 25 14 90.4 93 34 56 10 .284 1.40 4.25 4.85 2.7 0.3
70o 4.2 5.1 0.3 24 14 85.5 93 34 53 10 .295 1.48 4.53 5.16 -0.2 -0.0
60o 3.9 5 0.3 23 13 81.5 92 34 50 10 .304 1.54 4.77 5.43 -2.5 -0.3
50o 3.6 4.9 0.3 22 12 77.7 92 33 48 10 .312 1.61 5.00 5.68 -4.3 -0.5
40o 3.3 4.8 0.2 21 12 74.1 91 33 46 10 .320 1.67 5.23 5.94 -6.1 -0.7
30o 3 4.7 0.2 20 11 70.2 90 33 43 10 .329 1.74 5.48 6.22 -7.8 -0.8
20o 2.7 4.6 0.2 18 10 65.9 88 32 41 10 .340 1.83 5.78 6.56 -9.6 -1.0
10o 2.3 4.4 0.2 17 9 60.0 86 31 37 10 .355 1.96 6.21 7.04 -11.7 -1.3
Weighted Mean3.64.80.3221277.290334810.3101.594.975.65-4.1-0.4

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2017 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2018285602815111114551001545.3311.534.555.509.34.58.11.2-0.0
2019296813920153154701241945.3181.474.435.369.14.17.31.10.2
2020304502211869043701145.3281.554.675.659.54.57.41.2-0.2
2021316603317128129561171445.3351.454.014.859.13.98.21.00.8
2022324402412939246871045.3371.494.094.958.94.58.41.00.5
202333460271410610148901545.3051.414.655.628.64.17.71.3-0.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 86)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 94 Luis Atilano 2012 0.00 DNP
2 92 Paul Clemens 2015 0.00 DNP
3 91 Brian Bass 2009 5.42
4 91 Matt Roney 2007 0.00 DNP
5 90 Sean Henn 2008 7.71
6 90 Sean O'Sullivan 2015 6.21
7 89 David Buchanan 2016 0.00 DNP
8 89 Tim Stauffer 2009 3.82
9 89 Greg Reynolds 2013 5.83
10 88 Zach Stewart 2014 0.00 DNP
11 88 Sammy Solis 2016 2.58
12 88 Billy Buckner 2011 0.00 DNP
13 88 Matt Belisle 2007 5.62
14 88 Andy Van Hekken 2007 0.00 DNP
15 88 Chad Jenkins 2015 4.91
16 88 Tim Drew 2006 0.00 DNP
17 88 Darrell Rasner 2008 5.88
18 87 Nick Regilio 2006 0.00 DNP
19 87 Mike Gosling 2008 0.00 DNP
20 87 Josh Geer 2010 0.00 DNP
21 87 A.J. Murray 2009 0.00 DNP
22 87 Ryan Feierabend 2013 0.00 DNP
23 87 David Hale 2015 6.43
24 87 Radhames Liz 2011 0.00 DNP
25 87 Jake Woods 2009 0.00 DNP
26 87 Josh Banks 2010 13.50
27 86 Josh Hall 2008 0.00 DNP
28 86 Hiram Burgos 2015 0.00 DNP
29 86 Alex Sanabia 2016 0.00 DNP
30 86 Chase Anderson 2015 4.42
31 86 Anthony Lerew 2010 8.54
32 86 Felix Diaz 2008 0.00 DNP
33 86 Chris Schwinden 2014 0.00 DNP
34 86 Enrique Gonzalez 2010 3.81
35 86 Chris Bootcheck 2006 10.45
36 85 Ben Hendrickson 2008 0.00 DNP
37 85 Jared Wells 2009 0.00 DNP
38 85 Pedro Figueroa 2013 12.00
39 85 Brian Broderick 2014 0.00 DNP
40 85 Brian Burres 2008 6.18
41 85 Mike Thompson 2008 0.00 DNP
42 85 Robert Ray 2011 0.00 DNP
43 85 Brian Slocum 2008 27.00
44 85 Casey Daigle 2008 0.00 DNP
45 85 Matthew Lujan 2016 0.00 DNP
46 85 Hector Ambriz 2011 0.00 DNP
47 85 Ezequiel Astacio 2007 0.00 DNP
48 85 Travis Chick 2011 0.00 DNP
49 85 Ethan Hollingsworth 2014 0.00 DNP
50 85 Kyle Drabek 2015 5.06
51 85 Brooks Raley 2015 0.00 DNP
52 85 Luke French 2013 0.00 DNP
53 84 Arnie Munoz 2009 0.00 DNP
54 84 Justin Wayne 2006 0.00 DNP
55 84 Virgil Vasquez 2009 6.04
56 84 Tyler Cloyd 2014 0.00 DNP
57 84 Justin Orenduff 2010 0.00 DNP
58 84 Daniel Barone 2010 0.00 DNP
59 84 Christian Friedrich 2015 5.71
60 84 Shawn Hill 2008 6.68
61 84 Trevor Bell 2014 67.50
62 84 Chad Qualls 2006 3.86
63 84 Matt DeSalvo 2008 31.50
64 84 Chris George 2007 0.00 DNP
65 84 Jake Petricka 2015 3.46
66 84 Drew Rucinski 2016 0.00 DNP
67 84 Craig Stammen 2011 0.87
68 84 Cesar Carrillo 2011 0.00 DNP
69 84 Matt Fox 2010 4.91
70 84 Levale Speigner 2008 11.25
71 84 Michael Stutes 2014 0.00 DNP
72 84 Matthew Long 2011 0.00 DNP
73 84 Mike Hinckley 2010 0.00 DNP
74 84 James Gillheeney 2015 0.00 DNP
75 84 J.D. Martin 2010 5.62
76 84 Randor Bierd 2011 0.00 DNP
77 84 Francisco Rosario 2008 0.00 DNP
78 84 Jason Young 2007 0.00 DNP
79 84 John Koronka 2008 0.00 DNP
80 84 Travis Webb 2012 0.00 DNP
81 84 Kendy Batista 2009 0.00 DNP
82 84 Justin Marks 2015 0.00 DNP
83 83 Steve Garrison 2014 0.00 DNP
84 83 Juan Mateo 2010 0.00 DNP
85 83 Austin Adams 2014 9.00
86 83 Tom Cochran 2010 0.00 DNP
87 83 Andrew Albers 2013 5.10
88 83 Mitchell Boggs 2011 4.01
89 83 Pedro Villarreal 2015 4.32
90 83 Marco Estrada 2011 4.37
91 83 Andrew Good 2007 0.00 DNP
92 83 Bobby Brownlie 2008 0.00 DNP
93 83 Justin Thomas 2011 0.00 DNP
94 83 Hector Noesi 2014 5.12
95 83 Jared Rogers 2015 0.00 DNP
96 83 Alex White 2016 0.00 DNP
97 83 Robert Morey 2016 0.00 DNP
98 83 Henry Sosa 2013 0.00 DNP
99 83 Alex Wimmers 2016 4.80
100 83 Braulio Lara 2016 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .342 .396 .475 .322
11 vs R (Multi) .329 .383 .505 .327
18 Split (Multi) .013 .013 -.029 -.005
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .361 .410 .528 .350
31 vs R (2016) .304 .365 .464 .301
38 Split (2016) .058 .045 .063 .049
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2017 Due to publishing agreements, the 2017 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2017 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2016 Casey Kelly spent most of 2015 building up arm strength and toughening character. He got hit hard in the minors before enjoying more public degradation in the majors in September.
2015 The good news is that Kelly pitched in games last year, something he hadn't done since September 2012. The bad news is that he was shut down after four rehab starts in May. He started long tossing again a few months later, and the Padres say he's structurally fine. Kelly has worked a total of 87 innings over the last three seasons, which is a difficult way to develop. At a time when he should be refining his craft at the highest level, he's trying to get his elbow to function properly. We keep saying mid-rotation starter, but each passing setback makes it harder to justify that stance.
2014 One of the Padres' most promising young arms, Kelly has worked fewer than 70 innings over the last two years thanks to elbow issues, missing all of 2013 while recovering from April Tommy John surgery. He doesn't overpower, but is athletic (he played shortstop in the low minors) and has good bloodlines (father Pat is a former minor-league catcher who had a cup of coffee with the Blue Jays in 1980). Kelly was playing catch by season's end and should see action in 2014. Assuming he picks up where he left off before surgery, his three-pitch arsenal makes him a potential mid-rotation candidate now and into the future.
2013 The centerpiece of the Gonzalez trade, Kelly generated buzz in spring training and appeared poised to take a step or three forward. He fanned 14 and walked none in his first two starts at Triple-A, then incurred a right elbow ligament strain that kept him out for three and a half months. Kelly joined the big club toward the end of August and spun six scoreless innings in his debut before getting hit hard over his final five starts. With a low-90s fastball, plus curve, and average changeup, the athletic Kelly projects as a mid-rotation workhorse who could enjoy a long career if he stays healthy.
2012 Although Kelly was trumpeted as the centerpiece of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, the numbers have never justified the hype. The former shortstop hasn't been pitching full time for very long, but even given his age and relative lack of experience, a 6.6 K/9 in the Texas League doesn't translate into a front-line starter, which is what Padres fans were sold when the team acquired him. Still, there is a lot to like about Kelly, in a Jon Garland kind of way. He has a good build that suggests a future workhorse, and he works down in the zone, which produces an abundance of ground balls. He became very stingy with extra-base hits after the All-Star break. Kelly will start the season at Tucson but could see action with the big club at some point and eventually will make a fine mid-rotation starter.
2011 Kelly was Boston's first-rounder back in 2008, and the former two-way talent is now a full-time starting pitcher. It was expected that he would repeat High-A given his lack of pro experience on the mound, so his struggles as a 20-year-old in the upper minors are not a surprise, though the cracked fingernail he had on his middle finger didn't help things either. The righty sits 90-94 with his heater and has a plus curve in addition to an off-speed pitch that may evolve into a plus offering. Kelly's delivery is surprisingly clean and repeatable for someone who was spending much of his time at shortstop until recently, and he projects to be an above-average starter once he figures out pitch sequencing and command. Kelly will repeat Double-A in 2011, but this time, as a member of the Padres—he was the key of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and may slot in behind Mat Latos in the rotation as early as 2012.
2010 The Red Sox’s first-round pick in the 2008 draft, Kelly spent his first pro season as a slick-fielding, weak-hitting shortstop, then debuted in 2009 as a legitimate pitching prospect. Kelly dominated in nine Sally League starts, then continued to pitch well for High-A Salem before reaching his mandated innings limit and returning to shortstop (where he again failed to impress at the plate, hitting .222/.302/.340 in 182 PA). Kelly throws strikes with a low-90s fastball with good movement, an excellent curve, and a developing change, all of which could be plus pitches, though some scouts worry none will emerge as a true out pitch. Either way, expect him to remain on the mound going forward.
2009 Boston's 2008 first-round pick, Kelly has a lot of potential defensively, although he may need to move to third base due to his large frame. Production at the plate was a problem during his professional debut, as he struggled to make contact in Rookie ball, but he was able to get the bat on the ball once he moved to Lowell. There is still a chance that he will be converted to pitching if he cannot make it as a hitter, and given his numbers on the mound in high school along with the attention paid to him by Tennessee to play quarterback, he has the arm for it.

BP Articles

Casey Kelly is referenced in the following articles.

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  Title Author Date
Liner Notes: NRI Watch: National LeagueBryan Grosnick2017-02-15
Prospectus Feature: Choose Your Own Adventure: Padres RotationBen Carsley2017-01-30
Prospectus Feature: Choose Your Own Adventure: Padres RotationBret Sayre2017-01-30
Prospectus Feature: Choose Your Own Adventure: Padres RotationPatrick Dubuque2017-01-30
Prospectus Feature: Choose Your Own Adventure: Padres RotationCraig Goldstein2017-01-30
This article requires BP Premium access2017 Prospects: San Diego Padres Top 10 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2017-01-23
This article requires BP Premium access2017 Prospects: San Diego Padres Top 10 ProspectsJeffrey Paternostro2017-01-23
Prospectus Feature: That Old Story About Teams Never Trading Prospects AnymoreJulien Assouline2016-09-02
This article requires BP Premium accessThe View From Behind The Backstop: We Do Write About 3s (A Lot)Jeffrey Paternostro2016-05-09
Winter Is Leaving: Atlanta BravesRian Watt2016-03-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2017 and BeyondBen Carsley2016-02-29
Outta Left Field: This Is the Padre WayDustin Palmateer2016-01-20
Outta Left Field: In Search of a New Ryan DoumitDustin Palmateer2016-01-12
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Order in the BethancourtR.J. Anderson2015-12-11
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Order in the BethancourtBryan Grosnick2015-12-11
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: Order in the BethancourtDustin Palmateer2015-12-11
The BP Wayback Machine: The Futures Game Viewing Guide, 2009 EditionKevin Goldstein2015-07-01
This article requires BP Premium accessLeague Preview Series: Pacific Coast LeagueCraig Goldstein2015-04-06
Prospectus Feature: A.J. Preller's Offseason and the Toronto PrecedentSteven Jacobson2015-02-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 175 Starting PitchersBret Sayre2015-02-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2016Ben Carsley2015-02-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2016Craig Goldstein2015-02-24
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2015Craig Goldstein2015-02-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2015Ben Carsley2015-02-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: San Diego PadresWilson Karaman2014-12-10
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BP Announcements: BP and ICA Announce 4th Annual Celebrity Bartending Night in Scottsdale, ArizonaJoe Hamrahi2014-03-14
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This article requires BP Premium accessPainting the Black: The Prospect Proximity RankingsR.J. Anderson2014-03-03
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 175 Starting PitchersBret Sayre2014-02-27
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This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: The Prospects Who DisappointedBP Prospect Staff2013-09-09
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)Could you see either Cashner or Ross being dealt? Ian Kennedy is likely gone I imagine. Does Casey Kelly finally get a shot?
(Eric from LA)
It's possible, though with both under control beyond this year it isn't imperative. Kelly gets a shot assuming health and if one of those guys is dealt. (Mike Gianella)
2015-01-20 19:30:00 (link to chat)Hey Ben, who do have as some of your favorite "to keep an eye on" prospects for 2015?
(kiper90 from Rochester, NY)
This is all over the place, but some guys who's values could fluctuate wildly from a fantasy POV for me are: Trey Ball, Chelsor Cuthbert, Casey Kelly, Tyler Austin, Tyrell Jenkins, Colin Moran, Kyle Crick, Matt Olson, Kyle Zimmer, Rymer Liriano, Gary Sanchez and Alen Hanson. All over the place, I know, but I feel like a lot of those guys are gonna go one of two ways. (Ben Carsley)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any chance we see Casey Kelly up in the majors next year? And does he still project as a mid rotation starter?
(mdotmorris22 from Minnesota)
He's still coming back from injuries, after struggling in his cup of coffee in 2012, so I don't think there's any rush. The Padres have sufficient SP depth for the moment that they can afford to let him earn his way back. (Cory Schwartz)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I can't seem to get this question answered, but maybe you can help. What is the best source of info on MiLB player injuries? I am in a deep dynasty league and it would be really helpful to better understand the extent of some of these injuries. Specifically, I haven't seen anything substantive in a long time on Casey Kelly, Tom Murphy, Keury Mella, Jose Martinez or Harold Ramirez. I just know they're all hurt. Thanks!
(DF from Wilmington, NC)
I'm afraid I don't have a specific answer for you, other than pestering beat reporters. There are lot of guys who are interactive on twitter and are willing to find that info for you, though I know it might now always be the case. (Craig Goldstein)
2013-06-07 10:30:00 (link to chat)Will Boston let Trey Ball go two ways at first (similar to what they did with Casey Kelly)?
(Alex from Boston)
In my opinion, I think you let Ball go two ways this summer and through instructs to see what you have. There's no downside to that. He was inconsistent enough with the bat this spring, however, that I think most evaluators (even those that concede they really liked what he showed last summer) would run him out there as an arm. I think Trey will apply himself happily to either role. (Nick Faleris on the MLB Draft)
2013-02-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)Which of Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland, Robbie Erlin has the most value for 2013? Long-term? 12-team NL-only Scoresheet league.
(Mark68 from A Mile High)
Erlin is my guy there (Jason Collette)
2013-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Give us a 2013 Casey Kelly prediction.
(Paul from DC)
Paul, my prediction is that Kelly won't play shortstop this year. Something useful? I'll say 15-20 starts, ERA in the low-4s. (Geoff Young)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Last year, Casey Kelly sped up his delivery and moved to the 1B side of the rubber for reportedly purposes of "deception" & control. To me, they seem more like cosmetic changes. Are moves like this designed more for an adjustment in a pitcher's mindset, or to possibly alter a scouting report? Is there data that says location on the rubber alters the ability to hit certain spots or is this sort of thing merely determined on a case-by-case basis? Thanks.
(Bryant from Oceanside, CA)
I am a big proponent of increasing momentum to add kinetic energy and to achieve a deeper release point, and pitchers with a slower motion leave a larger window of opportunity for timing to fall off track. The set-up position on the rubber is also a significant factor, though it is pitcher-specific. I don't believe in strict rules governing where a pitcher sets up, but it is critical to adjust the starting position on the rubber so that the pitcher can find his ideal release point. I believe that release point efficiency and consistency is far more important than creating angle on hitters (ie favoring control instead of deception), and every pitcher has a unique signature that dictates his optimal set-up position.

On the jukebox: Thrice, "Unquestioned Answers" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any thoughts on what we might see out of Skaggs or Casey Kelly this year?
(Ratcatcher from Narnia)
I like Kelly more because of ballpark and lack of competition. He should start in AAA, but should make it up in early summer if he success in AAA. If Skaggs beats out Delgado for the 5th spot, I'd change my tune a bit on his short-term prospects, but I'm not sure. ARI has an embarrassment of arms with 7-9 ready or on the cusp, plus Daniel Hudson in the wings. That damages Skaggs' 2013 outlook a bit. (Paul Sporer)
2012-11-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Keeper league question. I have the following pitchers: Casey Kelly $2, Iwakuma $3, Straily $3, W Peralta $2, Skaggs $1, Erlin $1, Delgado $1. I can keep 2, maybe 3 at their contract price for 2 or 3 years. Suggestions?
(SJLedet from Alexandria)
You've got a lot of solid options there. Tough call. I definitely keep Straily, then I probably go with Skaggs and one of Peralta/Kelly/Iwakuma (let's say Iwakuma unless you're looking for a bigger risk). If you only keep them for two years, it's less about upside and more about making sure you're taking someone who will help in 2013. (Derek Carty)
2012-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's Casey Kelly's ceiling?
(stewbies from Rochester, NY)
Solid #3 starter (Jason Parks)
2012-10-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)With all the breakout seasons from several rookies this year, what rookies do you see potential big seasons from next year?
(Rockford from Treeline)
You mentioned Shelby Miller and Wily Peralta earlier. Among pitchers, I think we'll see a much better showing from Tyler Skaggs and Casey Kelly in the National League, and I'm certainly looking forward to seeing Dylan Bundy in the AL. At the plate, I'll go with Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, and perhaps toward the end of the year, a cameo from Billy Hamilton. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-08-30 13:30:00 (link to chat)What's your opinion on Casey Kelly? What's his ceiling? Looked impressive in his debut.
(Jerry from California)
Is anyone still with me? Sorry about that, folks--I restarted all my electronic devices, and things are still extremely slow. For now, I'm able to cruise the World Wide Web again, albeit in the way that I did when I exchanged my 28.8k modem for a 33.6k. (That was a wonderful day.)

Kelly did look good, as Geoff Young wrote today. wrote today. Probably not a top-of-the-rotation guy, but in Petco, with that kind of control? Yeah, he's going to be good.

While I have semi-working internet again, here's Sam's article on the Orioles. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-08-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Have you heard of any progress from Casey Kelly on his rehab? Assuming no major setbacks, does he make the starting rotation out of ST next year?
(captnamerca from Dunedin, FL)
I haven't heard anything about Casey Kelly. I wouldn't anticipate him making the opening day rotation, either. Though a lot can happen between now and then. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-05-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Just wondering about Martin Perez and where you think his ceiling might be given the contrast between his tools and that the numbers never seem to back them up. Seems to be turning into Casey Kelly.
(Eric from Minneapolis, MN)
Well, he just turned 21 and is at least holding his own at AAA. I still trust the scouting reports more than the numbers in his case. With his stuff, his ceiling is still sky-high. (Ken Funck)
2011-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Casey Kelly in that Aaron Hicks category? Looks great, but the performance doesn't seem to be there. Is there still #2 upside with him or is he more of a innings guy in your opinion?
(BrowningNagle from Louisville, KY)
Yes. He's the starter on the "Why Isn't This Guy Better?" team. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'd also been overconfidently thinking this morning of Greinke-to-Boston possibilities. What sort of package might get that done? The Royals seem a bit weak up the middle, so Ellsbury-Lowrie seems an easy starting point, but now-Padre Casey Kelly seemed the Sox' obvious "pitcher who could be Greinke in a year or two." And at what point does speculating about that just become unfair Yankee-needling?
(Brendan from Boston)
To get Greinke, I think you have to accept that Buchholz is in Royals/Red Sox deal. Ellsbury and Lowrie are nice, but hardly blue-chip talents; they're the add-ons. However, I don't think the Sox can make this deal--or any deal including Ellsbury--until March, when they and their dance partner know more about both Ellsbury and Cameron and how well they're coming back from injury. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would it be feasible to groom Casey Kelly as a SP and defensive specialist at SS? Have I been thinking entirely too much about baseball this cold winter?
(EricJ from SF)
I bugged Kevin with exactly that kind of question a couple of years ago, and got reality-checked for my trouble. I'd put it in that bulging "ain't gonna happen" file. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)You support this move for the Sox? Why not let it ride and have a choice of Agonz, Fielder or Pujols after 2011 with no NYY in the mix. I don't know how much money sox save on Gonzalez with the rumored numbers being mentioned.
(SK from DC)
Absolutely. First off, Fielder isn't that great. Terrible defensive first baseman, and really, do we know if he's a pretty good hitter or a great hitter yet? He never seems to be the same thing two years in a row, and he needs to be excellent all the time to make up for that glove. I don't think Pujols is leaving St. Louis--other teams would be in the mix solely to make sure the Cards pay up.

The Cubs love Adrian Gonzalez, and have the money to throw at him in 2012 if he was available. Eight teams inquired about him in a trade, so there is interest there. Anthony Rizzo has no future in the organization if the Sox are acquiring a first baseman anyways, so this is basically trading Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes for the rights to Gonzalez in 2011, as well as the right to negotiate with him during the season. I'm very optimistic he'll be signed well before the season is over.

If Boston gets Gonzalez for $22M a year, then this is a steal. Just assume $5M per win for a minute, Gonzalez is something like a $25-30M win player a year. Getting him for less money than Ryan Howard is silly, but I'll take it. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)So you Red Sox joy counterbalances your Padres' sadness on the Gonzalez deal?
(formersd from San Diego)
There really isn't any Padres' sadness, honestly. Here is my thinking.

As great as Adrian Gonzalez is--and he's one of the top players in the game--he is one guy. The Padres had reason to believe the 2011 team could be a bit better, with an improved rotation, a full season of (healthy) Ryan Ludwick, Cameron Maybin possibly blossoming in center with another year in the majors, Kyle Blanks coming back from his TJ surgery, etc. If they acquire Brendan Ryan in a trade to man shortstop as is expected, and then sign someone like Derrek Lee to play first base, then you're talking about a team that could still win something like 82-85 games. Then, in 2012, you have Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Simon Castro and maybe Drew Cumberland coming up if he continues to tear up the minors. That is an exciting roster all of a sudden, and it was brought about without fielding a terrible team.

The Padres can trade Bell and Ludwick in July and still have a decent team, assuming Aaron Cunningham or Kyle Blanks can slot into Ludwick's place and they bump Mike Adams up to the role of closer. The gloom and doom mentality coming out of San Diego after the trade of Adrian Gonzalez is almost enough to make me start a Padres' blog in response. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)How intent, if at all , is BOS in moving Dice-K? He might make a nice pickup forCubs in a swap of so-so contracts.
(Matt from Chicago)
I don't think they are desperate to move him or anything, but he does represent the only rotation spot they can mess with until 2014, so if the right opportunity presents itself they may do it. They may be a little more loathe to do so now that Casey Kelly is gone, as Felix Doubront is the lone high-minors pitching prospect they have left, but they are definitely listening if people ask. (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)How much has the stock dropped for Casey Kelly. What do you see his upside as?
(Mike from Utica,NY)
I'm not sure it's dropped ALL that much. I talked to a scout about him yesterday. He said all the stuff from last year is there, but he's throwing way too many strikes and leaving a lot of balls right in hitter's wheelhouse. He wanted to see Kelly get more aggressive and find a mean streak, but he had no issues with the stuff. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-03-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)KG, how about some lightning round? Quicker to the majors: Westmoreland or Casey Kelly?
(Bud Light Golden Wheat from Has a robust flavor, but so does sewage)
Kelly, just less of a ceiling. I've already gone more than four hours, but I have some time, so keep 'em coming. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-12-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Mark, Using the Santana Trade as a template: Is a trade of Boston players: Casey Kelly (5 star prospect), Jed Lowrie (MLB Utility INF possible SS/2B), plus a B/B- level prospect like a Gibson (SS)[Navarro (INF) or Lin (OF)] for Doc Halladay work? Remember, Santana netted the Twins Carlos Gomez, great defense with a progressing bat, and the Mulvey/Humber/Guerra trio. Not a very impressive bevy of pitchers. In short, Minnosota received 1 really good player plus some filler in the trade - due to Santana's trade demands, his potential extention price tag and having only 1 year left on the existing contract. The Blue Jays can't possibly get much more than the Twins received in their Trade?
(Steven from New England)
I think Minnesota's deal would actually be a reason to expect the Jays to get more, as they will hold out as long as they can until someone is desperate enough to cave in to their demands. I'm not sure how accurate the reports are, but I kept hearing that the Sox would have to give up both Kelley and Clay Buchholz to make this work. I'm not sure how I feel about that, as much as I love Halladay. (Marc Normandin)
2009-10-09 13:30:00 (link to chat)Where would you rank Casey Kelly in terms of pitching prospects? Is he more front end/ace rotation stuff, or 2-3 type?
(Adam from Norfolk, VA)
I'd rank him pretty damn high, but I do think his ceiling is 2-3. That's not an insult AT ALL. 1s are crazy rare -- even 2s and 3s are. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-07-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)What does Casey Kelly have to do to get another shot at playing shortstop?
(Nick Smith from Allston, MA)
Well, he kinda sorta has that shot now, doesn't he? Baseball can be unpredictable, so assuming that his future is sure-fire as a pitcher based on, essentially half a season, is...iffy. Kelly has clearly been superb on the mound this season, and will presumably leap near the top of KG's Red Sox top 11 next spring, but it's early. Very early. (David Laurila)
2009-07-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lars still the Red Sox best prospect or has Casey Kelly passed him?
(Jack from Boston)
I'd take Kelly over Anderson pretty easily. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-07-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Has Casey Kelly moved into your personal top 10 pitching prospects?
(Jeremy from Boston)
TEN? Probably a bit strong for me. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-03-19 15:00:00 (link to chat)Is there anyone in the Boston system that you're particularly excited to see debut this year?
(Rob from Brighton)
Tons of guys. The '08 draft is full of guys like Westmoreland and Hissey, not to mention (while he has already played some), 1st round pick Casey Kelly getting some time at shortstop and starting pitcher. (Kevin Goldstein)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2017, Casey Kelly threw 1,637 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2016, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2016, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph), Sinker (91mph) and Curve (81mph), also mixing in a Change (86mph). He also rarely threw a Cutter (90mph).