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Chat: Paul Sporer

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday April 24, 2014 1:00 PM ET chat session with Paul Sporer.

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Talk pitching and fantasy with Paul.

Paul Sporer: Sorry for the delay, folks! Computer issues are a great way to kick off the day :-\ Back up & running!!

swag (swag): do the tigers have a chance of making it to the playoffs

Paul Sporer: A massive chance, of course.

Pop (NJ): Danny Salazar? Que Pasa?

Paul Sporer: Pardon me for pumping a non-BP project of mine, but Collette and I discussed this at length with Jensen Lewis (former Cleveland Indian himself) on a pod yesterday - https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/towers-of-power-baseball-hour/id787270212?mt=2

Rob (Baltimore): Yan Gomes or Travis D'arnaud which one do I keep for this season? 12 man head to head rotisserie league

Paul Sporer: Gomes easily for me.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Paul, What is the ETA on Heaney and do you foresee him being a #1, 2 or 3?

Paul Sporer: ETA is tough to tell. They usually pull guys up when ready, but they also need an open spot. They're fifth is currently open with Turner shelved, but that's still his spot when he gets back and the other four have been insanely good. I think we'll see him this summer, hard to tell how good he'll be IMMEDIATELY, but he carries a very high ceiling. I'd tag him as a possible 2, but anytime they have that potential, that means the growth potential is there for ace-level quality, too. I'm very high on him.

Mike (Boston): Paul, What do I do with Danny Salazar? I paid a good amount to get him but he's been awful. How much longer should I give him?

Paul Sporer: See previous Salazar question. Ya gotta hold on bc of his cost.

Warren (Omaha NE): In an NL Dynasty league if I was to make O. Taveras available in a trade what pitchers would you target ?

Paul Sporer: If you're competing for this season, I'd target pretty high. Ideally you'd find someone playing for '15 already with a big arm. Maybe try to buy on Hamels (although it would've been better before he looked great last night). I imagine OT's value is still quite high.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): With Bruce Rondon on the DL with TJ surgery, what are the chances of the Tigers making a trade with the Cubs for Hector Rondon and then inserting him as closer?

Paul Sporer: 92%

Mitch (LA): Heyward for G.Richards - classic sell high/buy low - agree on my J-Hey grab for some offensive assistance?

Paul Sporer: OMG, that's a great trade. I love Heyward.

mmcd (ottawa): Hi Paul. Love the pitching guide. Are there any reasons that stand out for Taylor Jordan's slow start? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Thanks!!! The reason would be that he's a young guy learning the ropes. Nothing to freak out about, but additionally I think expectations were a bit high.

Bob (Denver): At this point how would you proceed with Danny Salazar. 12 team redraft league and have been offered multiple offers from multiple teams. Deal him for one of Smyly, Masterson, CJ Wilson, Miley or Porcello for him. Hold or make deal for which SP's.

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I'd probably hold. Those aren't bad names, but you prob paid a decent price for Salazar so wait it out a bit long

Ed (Cranford, NJ): What are the chances that German takes over the closer role from Farnsworth this year?

Paul Sporer: It's possible. But they might try Todd Jones and Mike Henneman first.

Jay (Boston): Closers are fickle for sure (especially this year) - which would you rather grab for a team needy saves squad - A.Reed, Papelbon, or Soria?

Paul Sporer: Reed

Adam (FL): Which of 3 these pitching prospects would you be most willing to move in a dynasty league: Walker, Bundy, Gausman, Giolito, Stroman, Syndergaard, Stephenson and Zimmer?

Paul Sporer: Stephenson, Zimmer, and Bundy

CyMature (hardballHeaven): Joey "Three Bombs" Gallo, Just wanted to say it.

Paul Sporer: His power is obscene

bigups52 (DC): Are you concerned with Bryce Harper? Has he been over-hyped?

Paul Sporer: Not really, not really. He's a great player, I just think Trout has raised the expectation bar. He's still just 21. If it were just him, we'd be marveling over his numbers at these ages, but Trout makes it look like he's "struggling" when he very much isn't

Alex (Anaheim): Is it worth hanging onto Pineda during his suspension in a 12-team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Probably unless you really like a name on the wire. I'm fairly certain he'd get scooped if you dumped him. I don't think he's only successful bc of pinetar, but even if he is, i think he'll use his suspension to find better hiding spots.

brentdaily (boulder): What's Kyle Zimmer 2014 look like? Is this one of those "the guy isn't hurt" injuries where Dr. Andrews gleefully guts him in three months?

Paul Sporer: I haven't seen him unfortunately. I was hoping for a 2014 impact, but that's derailed currently. Honestly, it's just the nature of prospects and pitching prospects specifically.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Is it an awful strategy in daily fantasy to just go with whoever the Braves are running out to the mound every day? Hale's the obvious choice for the pen when Minor returns next week, but what happens when Floyd is ready? He'd have to be the odd man out right now, wouldn't he?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I'm not sure Floyd has the juice to force his way in, especially as a new Brave and coming off of injury. If Harang collapses, a spot will open. Can never have too much pitching, though.

Brian (Wis): I predict the most popular question today will be WTF is wrong with Danny Salazar? So, WTF is wrong with Danny Salazar?

Paul Sporer: Correct. See earlier answers. :)

Ryan (Land of Eternal Sunshine (LA)): With Dee Gordon playing well and Alex Guerrero ripping PCL pitching, is there a chance that Guerrero could move to 3B long term? Juan Uribe obviously deserves to keep his job for now, but he is old and there is no way he's a long term solution.

Paul Sporer: It could happen, but for now they'll stick with Dee and Uribe. Obviously they paid Guerrero to be an impact player. For now, they have to like how the situation is shaping up.

Brian (MA): better speculative add for saves down the road...Daniel Webb or Betances?

Paul Sporer: Webb bc of opportunity

Joe (St. Louis): If Oscar Taveras were called up tomorrow, would you offer Wil Myers for him straight up?

Paul Sporer: I'd prefer Myers for sure

Stan (Florida): I have always liked JD Martinez, especially that year in Houston. Now that he is back in the majors, can he stay there?

Paul Sporer: If he hits, he can stick for a while. Davis isn't a full-timer (really more of a short-side platoon guy with spot starts v. righties) so Martinez could assume the role that Dirks would have had.

Craig M (Fargo ND): Charlie Blackmon - lucky bounces? Sample size illusion? Swing adjustment? Finally getting a full-time chance? I told a league-mate I basically viewed him as Johnny Damon Part Two and got a weird look.

Paul Sporer: Anytime you're hitting .410, you're getting some lucky bounces. Blackmon was a worthy prospect, not a blue-chipper or anything, but definitely someone who projected to be a major leaguer. Plays for a great offense in a great park (1423 OPS at home). I think he can be a .270 hitter with like 13-15 HR and 25+ SBs.

John (CT): Do the O's have a chance of making it to the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Sure. But that division is so tough. I think they need Machado and Gausman to be major impact players sooner than later to hang.

Hank (LA): Khris Davis, big sleeper, only 2 homers so far. Overhyped, or possibly starting to breakout?

Paul Sporer: On pace for 17 HRs (if he played all 162 games), but if he had 3 HRs already, it'd be 25 which is exactly what I was hoping for out of him. Sit tight with him.

ravenight (boston): 8 team points league with deep rosters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, LF, CF, RF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, 7 SP, 3 RP, 6 BN, 5 DL). Auction draft, $460/team, with salaried keepers at draft price +$7. What are your thoughts on Sal Perez for Xander at the same salary? Would seem like a no-brainer to take Bogaerts, but with 2 Cs and only 1 SS, the difference between Perez and a replacement catcher is a lot higher than, say, Desmond vs. a replacement this year. So does Bogaerts become a top 3 fantasy SS in the next couple years? Does Perez remain around 6/7 or is he a top 5 guy in 2 years?

Paul Sporer: I really like Perez, but I'd still take Bogaerts. His ceiling is markedly higher offensively speaking.

Chris (Baltimore): Going to drop Nova and can choose from Simon, Keuchel, Danks, Gibson, Morales. Please rank.

Paul Sporer: Danks, Keuchel, Gibson are the only ones I'd consider. I like Simon, but his time is limited. I guess if you thought those guys were going to be available when Latos comes back, you could ride Simon

GK (Cleveland): Thanks for the chat!! What's your take on the early struggles of Danny Salazar? Seems as though he's lights out for 3 or 4 innings then gets crushed. Thanks!!

Paul Sporer: See first or second q!

Daniel B (OH): Would you do Wacha for either Andrus or Craig (redraft)? Both help my team, I'm deep at pitching. But is Wacha's ceiling higher than it was pre-draft?

Paul Sporer: Gotta get more for Wacha after this start.

Dan (DC): Paul, How concerned are you with Danny Salazar? Obviously the only thing you can probably do at this point is hold and reserve but is there any positive sign which would lead to buying low.

Paul Sporer: Finally someone asks about Salazar!! See the 2nd q (I think it was second).

Tyrone (Florida): Is Oscar Taveras a guy you would be looking to sell in a dynasty league with all of his injury concerns? My mind says he'll be fine, but I'm just afraid these injury concerns could ruin what was once a very promising career. Hold onto him or look to sell?

Paul Sporer: If I can still get a ransom for him, I would gladly deal him. But on the contrary, I'd also be looking to buy if the price was lowered in my other leagues. So test the waters.

NervousHabits (PGH): 12 team dynasty league. Currently sitting with Fister and Iwakuma on the DL, anticipating their return in the coming weeks. I've been filling in starts, rather successfully, with Jesse Chavez and Travis Wood. Do you feel like either of them are going to be worth holding a roster spot for the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: I could definitely see both staying effective enough to maintain consideration. I really like what I've seen from Chavez thus far.

Rup (Lorton, VA): Paul, Has Trevor Bauer figured things out? Would you drop one of Masterson, Miley or Smyly to add him?

Paul Sporer: Probably not ENTIRELY figured out just yet and thus I would not cut either of those three.

John (CT): How about WTF is wrong with George Springer?

Paul Sporer: Nothing.

ng (nyc): You've mentioned Danny Salazar and cost a couple times. In times past Huckabay et al have criticized GM's for not understanding the notion of sunk cost. Are you making the same mistake?

Paul Sporer: I didn't invest. I told y'all not to actually bc his price was exorbitant and I was worried about his home runs. But it's been less than a month, to cut bait now on someone as talented as him would be foolish. We've seen SOOO many guys labor through April only to crush for 5 months.

Jack (Miami): Top 5 fantasy SP from here on out? I know the Marlins can't hit but does Fernandez crack your list?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. I'm going to copout on Kershaw just because of the health, but obviously he's an unquestioned top 5 with health. But let's go with those currently pitching: Waino, JV, Fernandez, Felix, and Scherzer ... in no particular order bc it's splitting hairs to try and rank 1-5. They'll all amazing.

edwardarthur (Illinois): So ... Collin McHugh. 12Ks (including 3 of Robbie Cano), 0BB doesn't scream fluke. He's obviously not an ace, and almost as obviously has a good shot at sticking as a number 5. My question is in the middle -- how likely is he to turn into a genuine mid-rotation guy?

Paul Sporer: It does scream fluke. Seattle should be embarrassed. I'd honestly be blown away if he sticks, let alone succeeds.

Colin318 (IL): Thoughts on Jenrry Meija in mixed leagues?

Paul Sporer: The upside is massive as he can miss bats with the best of them. The blister is a bit of a concern bc we never know when it'll flare and cause him to lose effectiveness.

Brandon (PA): I need a backup second baseman for when Hill gets hurt. I have been using Ackley while he started off hot, but has cooled way down. 10 team rotisserie league, who would be a good grab?

Paul Sporer: LOL, why is Hill going to get hurt? In a 10-teamer, don't sweat backups for ASSUMED injuries. Just grab the best one if he does get nicked

JMR (Chicago): Are Tillman and Gallardo sell high candidates, or do you think they can sustain this for the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: The latter more so. I'm a big Tillman fan (of course his big issue cropped up last night with 3 HRs), but I believe he can be a strong asset all year. I like that MIL staff, but Gallardo doesn't miss bats like he used to so I don't really love him as a stud

Mike (Boston): You think Danny Duffy will take over Bruce Chen's spot in the rotation soon? If so is he an immediate add?

Paul Sporer: I think he can, yes. And then he'd be an add in a lot of formats, but not necessarily a must-add in 10 or 12-team mixers

Rup (Lorton, VA): Are you investing in Kemp if the price is right? The question is what is that price. Of these players who would you give up. Aramis, Arenado, Melky, Werth, A Jax, Brantley, R Howard.

Paul Sporer: I'd give up all of them for Kemp in a 1-for-1, even my boyfriend Werth... actually I might not with Werth, but the rest would be auto-accepts even though I love Brantley, AJax, and Aramis (and Arenado for that matter).

Jim (Chicago): Why does Erik Johnson decide to have a good start once I've made up my mind to release him?

Paul Sporer: LOL, because everyone can twirl a gem from time-to-time. He's a fifth starter, I just didn't see the hype coming into the season. Don Cooper can maybe extract four-level numbers out of him which will include the occasional gem and some solid outings, but the flameouts erase a lot of good.

JR (SD): What are you thoughts on Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner? Would you consider them top 20 SP?

Paul Sporer: I really liked both coming into the season, especially Cashner, who I had 25th overall coming into the season and he's been amazing. I can easily see Cash in the top 20. Not sure Ross has the consistency for that just yet, but he has the raw talent to do it.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Please rank these pitching coaches and managers in order of who would be most likely to get a strikeout if they had to pitch in a game today: Roger McDowell, John Farrell, Bud Black, Dave Righetti, Mike Harkey and Chris Bosio

Paul Sporer: Rags, McDowell, Black, Harkey, Farrell, and Bosio

bb10kbb10k (Erie, PA): Going forward, 6x6 dynasty w/ OPS ::: Adam LaRoche, Cory Hart, or Justin Morneau in Coors? thankyouverymuch.

Paul Sporer: Morneau, Hart, and LaRoche... not a ton of separation though

Randy (North Dakota): Ryan McMahon is off to a great start in the minors so far. Do you see this kid rising a ton as a prospect going into next year? Do you think he could be a top 20 prospect going into the 2015 season?

Paul Sporer: He definitely has rise potential. Our prospect team had him 5th in the Rockies system but with a potential season as a first division guy so the talent is there and obviously we're seeing it bloom early. He's one to watch.

JoJo (Eating Crow): I don't have a question. I know it's been a small sample size, but I just wanted to say that I was wrong and you were right about tempering expectations on Salazar. I saw Salazar's '13 and Harvey's '12 as very similar and expected him to be huge this year. He may still turn it around but his velocity is way down and he's getting hammered. I wished I had listened to your caution. I've learned my lesson - well done sir.

Paul Sporer: I totally understood the Harvey stuff and even mentioned it in the SP Guide, but I worried about the HRs. Don't quit him just yet, but it's why I'm usually reticent to gamble on the unproven (though not entirely averse to it as I showed with Moore in his first full season or Cole this season, hopefully the latter works out better)

Casey (Chicago): What is your take on Dayan Viciedo? Has he finally figure it out? He always had the power stroke, but seems like he might be figure out how to hit for average also

Paul Sporer: I'm a huge fan. I have him in lots of spots, even before the Garcia injury and while I'd never be some monster who roots for injury, it did open up The Tank's PT. He's got massive power. I'd take .255 AVG if he can pop 25+

Jordan (STL): I thought I got Adams for a steal in my league, but the guy is just no hitting for power, but had 17 HR's in less than 300 AB's last year. Any thoughts as to what is going on?

Paul Sporer: I thought he was a touch overrated coming into the season from a power expectation as there was a lot of extrapolation with the 17 HR. I don't think he's a HUGE power guy, but they'll come (20, at least). Enjoy the huge AVG/OBP in the meantime.

Mike (Boston): Thoughts on Eovaldi for ROS? Trade for him before while hes still affordable?

Paul Sporer: One of my absolute favorites coming into the season. I wouldn't buy high, so gauge the price before buying and don't go crazy.

Bill (Las Vegas): who is the speculative add for saves now for the Angels?

Paul Sporer: I added Salas in a league last night

Shawnykid23 (CT): Looks like I gave up on Kluber too early...

Paul Sporer: Gotta stick with him! The component numbers were still sharp in those first four starts. The OAK one was the only real DUD where his stuff looked weak.

Spirou (Montreal): Hi Paul.Been a great fan of yours for a few years now.Was able to get Jesse Chavez late in our draft and think he can be a good starter.A mid 3 e.r.a is perfectly realistic.The stuff is good enough and most guys will underestimate pitching IQ .What happens when Griffin comes back ?

Paul Sporer: I've become a Chavez believer. Milone loses his spot for AJ.

Jeff (DC): In your opinion which two pitchers not currently in the majors will offer the biggest boost to a fantasy squad?

Paul Sporer: Stroman and Heaney ... one AL and one NL

Mack (CLE): thanks a million for Kluber pre season prediction. he was lights out today. you take him or wheeler rest of this season?

Paul Sporer: You're welcome. I'm sticking my preseason prediction which has Kluber out in front. Though I do like Wheeler, they were just 10 spots in my preseason tiers.

ng (nyc): "But it's been less than a month, to cut bait now on someone as talented as him would be foolish. We've seen SOOO many guys labor through April only to crush for 5 months." This is an entirely different reason to not cut him than "because you paid a lot for him," which seemed to be the reason you gave previously.

Paul Sporer: I don't know what you're looking for. I'm honestly over discussing Salazar at this point. Cutting a costly asset with gobs of potential a month into the season is foolish. Sometimes it'll be the right call, oftentimes it won't be. The process of doing so is a bad one, though.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Heading to Dallas for work- where should I go for good BBQ?

Paul Sporer: I'd have to defer to Parks on that one if you can hit him up on Twitter. Dallas is my least-favorite of the big cities in Texas so I don't know it as well as HOU, SA, and of course my hometown of Austin.

Harry (Oklahoma): For how many other teams would Zack Greinke be the #1 starter? Or is he just a very good #2?

Paul Sporer: Lots. He's excellent and he's really seemed to mature with his approach (doesn't let dink hits or misplays behind him rattle him as he did in the past which would lead to implosion outings 4-5x a year)

prop joe (B'More): is this McHugh guy for real? i know its only 1 start but would you add him in a 17 team league?

Paul Sporer: I guess in that kinda league everyone has to get a look, but I think it was just his day to shine. For full disclosure I might be bitter bc I stacked Mariners against him in daily

Phil (LA): Darvish is not a top 5 SP over any of the ones you listed?

Paul Sporer: OMG I'm so dumb. Yes he is. I KNEW I was forgetting someone. I'm terrible at lists off the top of the dome.

Michael (Detroit, MI): In the interests of improving, were there any warning signs that I should have paid more attention to before I drafted Ivan Nova on the weekend before opening day? Seems like you were optimistic in the Starting Pitchers Guide and he pitched fine during spring training, but maybe I missed something.

Paul Sporer: I'm honestly chalking it up to injury with that one. We just can't know how much of the struggles were injury related before the UCL finally gave out. He wasn't himself in any of the four outings.

Spirou (Montreal): Scoresheet league.Just traded Kyle Zimmer for Henry Owens and Tommy La Stella.Was somewhat concerned with Zimmer's various ailments although reports greatly vary.How concerned are you and where do you see Owens and La Stella down the road ?

Paul Sporer: That's not a bad deal, especially if you're looking to get out from under the potential troubles of Zimm.

John (CT): Chances Zach Britton finishes the year as an Oriole starter?

Paul Sporer: I'm pulling for him, but I'm not sure he has the command for it.

Tom (South Beach): Name a couple struggling SP's are you trying to buy shares on and who are you avoiding.

Paul Sporer: Buying Stras, Kluber (obviously, and of course today's effort really assuages fears), Wheeler and Price among those with elevated ERAs. Moving away from Cain, Miller, and Ubaldo (was never in on Ubaldo, though)

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): In daily fantasy, do I have the same chance of winning on any given day if I scrutinize the matchups, read everything I can and really pick guys who SHOULD do well based on their matchups, as I do if I just pick $100,000 worth of salary at random? I really don't think a random picker would be worse at this than me!

Paul Sporer: On a single day, I don't think your chances are overwhelmingly heightened by the research. It's an incremental edge that should show up with time similar to poker or handicapping.

Joe (NY): my pitching staff in nl only is bailey, teheran, ryu, leake, roarke, rosenthal, rondon, ottavino and bastardo. have fister coming back in few weeks. I am dead last in era/whip and near bottom in K. Is it just early or do I have a problem with my staff?

Paul Sporer: I assume Bailey, Roark, and Rosy have had a lot to do with that. I think you'll be fine.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): If you were a pitching coach, which foreign substance would you recommend to improve grip, and where would you recommend hiding it?

Paul Sporer: I'm fine with pinetar, just don't slather four pounds on your giant fucking neck

Michael (Detroit, MI): What are your current thoughts on Tyler Skaggs in an AL-only fantasy league? Doug T. was pretty exuberant about the mechanical changes implemented during spring training but YTD K/BB ratio is underwhelming.

Paul Sporer: He's one of our bigger disagreements, though Doug has seen improvements in his mechanics (from awful to not-so-good, LOL). He's a growth stock, but that means there will be some bumps. Much prefer him as an AL-only guy, so hold tight

Rup (DC): Paul, Daniel Winkler and Ben Lively have carried over last years success into this year with incredible early season performances. Are these guys for real and in a dynasty league would you add one or both in place of, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Martinez or Lewis Thorpe?

Paul Sporer: I'd prefer them to the three others. I don't know that either is a star, but both are raising their stock

William (Bahston): Can I drop Grady now??

Paul Sporer: In mixed formats, probably so, but in AL-only I doubt there's a MUCH better option on the wire

Mark (Gators Creek, Georgia): Bob from Denver asked about dealing Salazar for the likes of CJ, Masterson etc. What about the flip side, would you try to add Salazar by dealing one of CJ, Masterson, Porcello, Miley or Smyly.

Paul Sporer: It'd definitely be buying low with the likes of Miley and Smyly especially, so yeah I think I might go ahead and make a run. It hasn't been impressive to date, but if you can get a discount, the talent is there

ng (nyc): Heh, I must not be explaining myself well. My point is not so much about Salazar as about the notion of sunk costs. You said "Ya gotta hold on bc of his cost." I contend this is the wrong reason to hold on to him (and an all too common mistake people make in general when making evaluations.) The correct reason is the other one you gave, namely that he has potential to perform better. I'm afraid many fantasy players fail to correctly consider that costs are about the past, i.e. sunk, and they shouldn't influence decision about about the future.

Paul Sporer: I disagree there. I think the cost matters, especially early on. I think the problem is that you can't accurately determine that it's a sunk cost on April 24th.

ng (nyc): What can I expect from Jered Weaver and his intimidating fastball?

Paul Sporer: Inconsistency. His margin for error is paper-thin which will lead to a few bomb-outs. I think we'll see something in the mid-to-high 3.00s. Still quite useful, just going to be tougher to get that sub-3.00 excellence with the occasional 5 ER dud mixed in

docg16 (New York): I'm in last place In 12-team 5x5 mixed. I know it's early, but this league has no bench, so cannot just pickup player to try him out and bench cold starter. I would need to give up and cut a player to add anyone. SPs like Harang, Niese, Leake, Norton and R. Ross are available and I have Salazar who looks lost. Would it be panic move to dump Salazar for one of SP mentioned? My biggest weakness is normally being overpatient, but combination of being in last and no bench spots has me wondering if I should make move now. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Oh man, that's tough. If I were going to do it, it'd be for Niese who I think has the highest ceiling by a lot in that group. I had Niese and Salazar just 6 spots apart (with Salazar higher) coming into the season, so I could see that being an OK move.

seddrah (Seattle): Jose Fernandez is the most exciting young arm since _______.

Paul Sporer: Felix Hernandez?

Shawn (Cubicle): Did Matt Cain just get "Coorsed" yesterday, or is there a bigger issue we should worry about?

Paul Sporer: He's been AWFUL there

Steven (Detroit): Strasburg's start is a little alarming. Seems to have lost some velocity, and is getting rocked at times, while other times looking almost unhittable? What are your thoughts on his rough start?

Paul Sporer: Not really panicking

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Paul, Considering the top 3 minor league mashers, Singleton, Gallo and McMahon, how would you rank them as potential major league mashers in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Gallo, McMahon, and Singleton in terms of power

Shawn (Cubicle): With the Brewers hot start, do you think the Pirates call up Gregory Polanco sooner than Super 2 deadline?

Paul Sporer: I don't know that they'd react to another team like that

hotstatrat (to): Sorry, Paul, I agree with ng. We all make mistakes - no biggie, but you are using cost as a proxy for overall estimated value. What if the guy overpaid for Salazar in the first place? It is irrelevant. Over-reacting to an April struggle, I agree with you, however, is what we should be wary of.

Paul Sporer: They did overpay... I preached that all preseason. But that doesn't mean you should cut bait in late-April. It's a bad move. Sorry we just don't agree here.

birk (Dayton): Hey Paul, would you trade Alex Wood and Leonys Martin for Danny Salazar and Matt Kemp?

Paul Sporer: I think I would. It's hard taking the down asset in Salazar, but the upside for that trade is a huge win.

Dave (DC): I know you were high on Porcello in the off-season, with the Tigers SS position still... unsettled... what are your expectations going forward?

Paul Sporer: Not AS high without Iglesias of course, but Romine is a glove-first guy so I'm still high. Plus Casty is better than Cabrera and Kinsler is great at 2B. Not to mention, Cabrera is much better than Fielder at first (of course, I am, too)

ng (nyc): It's not so much that I don't think you, me, and hotstatrat disagree so much as that I'm not convinced you're acquainted with the notion of a sunk cost. From the wikipedia entry on it "Evidence from behavioral economics suggests this theory fails to predict real-world behavior. Sunk costs do, in fact, influence actors' decisions because humans are prone to loss aversion and framing effects. In light of such cognitive quirks, it is unsurprising that people frequently fail to behave in ways that economists deem "rational"."

Paul Sporer: I just disagree with the notion that anyone with his pedigree and talent is a sunk cost 3 weeks into the season. You can still recoup that value... quite easily, in fact.

Frank (Denver): There's a difference between sunk cost and a 'sunk ship.' By definition, all costs are sunk costs as of the time of purchase. On the other hand, a slumping player may or may not be a 'sunk ship.' I think you're saying you're not ready to declare Salazar to be a 'sunk ship.'

Paul Sporer: I'm definitely not. Even with my lowered outlook on him compared to others, I still recognize his incredible talent.

cracker73 (Florida): What is your opinion of Dallas Keuchel? He's off to a good start. Do you think his success will continue?

Paul Sporer: He had a nice little stretch last year, too. He'll have his duds, so I'd really try to spot him more than anything.

mmcd (ottawa): Carlos Carrasco. Paul, can you explain what this guy's problem is beyond it being difficult to put things all together?. Thanks

Paul Sporer: I think he's just not THAT good. Command has always been a problem, too.

Jim (Boston): Do you have faith in Middlebrooks as Boston's 3B of the future? Cecchini seems to be breathing down his neck.

Paul Sporer: I actually think Cecchini is a markedly better hitter

bcportis (DC): Do you see for R.A. Dickey as a buy-low candidate?

Paul Sporer: Depends how low, but yeah I'd probably take a shot if you're expectations are in the 3.50-3.80 range

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Is there any chance at all that Neil Ramirez can be of any fantasy value as a reliever who racks up strikeouts? Do you think he'll see any save opportunities for the Cubs?

Paul Sporer: Yes there is a chance and I like the idea of a potential saves candidate, but I'd put that way out right now. He needs to clean up a bit first

Frank (Frank's House): Is Chris Colabello for real ROS, or is it all going to come crashing down soon?

Paul Sporer: He's getting insane RBI opps with Dozier, Mauer, and Plouffe getting on base a TON in front of him. I'd sell high. He's not worthless, but nowhere near this good, IMO

AJ (Phoenix): Dynasty: my Ian Kennedy + Javier Baez for his Jordan Zimmermann + Dylan Bundy. He has pitching excess, I need SP, he could use a 3B next season with Miggy moving to 1B. Fair?

Paul Sporer: I'd do that so hard. I prefer hitting prospects to pitching ones, but this is just too good to pass

Bill (New Mexico): Got a good explanation for Michael Wacha's bizarre line last night (4 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 10 K)? He doesn't appear to have been just rearing back and seeing how hard he could throw the thing, any more than any pitcher ever is.

Paul Sporer: I was at softball so I didn't see it, but he seemed to have devastating stuff for the most part. He lost it a bit in the fourth, though. Sorry I don't have more since I didn't see it

ng (nyc): "I just disagree with the notion that anyone with his pedigree and talent is a sunk cost 3 weeks into the season. You can still recoup that value... quite easily, in fact." I agree 100%! He is in fact not a sunk cost. What was paid for him, however, is and should not be a factor in the decision about whether to hold on to him or not.

Paul Sporer: Yes it should. It absolutely should at this time in the season. As we get deeper into the season, draft day costs fades and eventually becomes meaningless. But not in week 3. I'm not dealing some struggling 4th-5th rounder for Charlie Blackmon right now. If you want to, you're free to, but I think that's foolhardy.

Fred (ATL): Have you been able to see JR Graham pitch since his injury? Does he look good? Anything back to the almost top-100 prospect form he was at?

Paul Sporer: I haven't Fred, sorry. I'd lean on the prospect team there.

Colin (IL): To expand on the Meija question, who would you rather have between Martin Perez and Meija going forward?

Paul Sporer: Oooh, that's close bc I really like Perez. I'd prefer more Ks, but I can't argue with the success. Mejia's upside is high because of said Ks, but I think Perez is the safer bet.

AyAyRon (Mr. Garvey's Study Hall): Alison Brie, ScarJo, J-Law..... MFK. Go.

Paul Sporer: M: JLaw, F: ScarJo, K: myself after getting to M and F those two

Paul Sporer: OK folks, I gotta get rolling. My next chat will be longer, but as always you can hit me up on twitter if your question didn't get answered. Thanks for coming!!!


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