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2013 Projections (seasonal age 28) - Rest of Season Projections
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| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | GS | IP | IP-SP | IP-RP | W | L | SV | BS | QS | BQS | PA | H | R | ER | HR | TB | BB | UBB | HBP | SO | ERA | FIP | FRA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | SFN | 20 | 7 | 7 | 46.3 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 181 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 38 | 19 | 18 | 0 | 30 | 2.33 | 4.05 | 4.20 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 2006 | SFN | 21 | 32 | 31 | 190.7 | 188.7 | 2.0 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 818 | 157 | 93 | 88 | 18 | 263 | 87 | 86 | 6 | 179 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 4.21 | 32.9 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | SFN | 22 | 32 | 32 | 200.0 | 200.0 | 0.0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 832 | 173 | 84 | 81 | 14 | 269 | 79 | 76 | 5 | 163 | 3.64 | 3.72 | 4.18 | 27.3 | 2.8 |
| 2008 | SFN | 23 | 34 | 34 | 217.7 | 217.7 | 0.0 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 933 | 206 | 95 | 91 | 19 | 328 | 91 | 82 | 7 | 186 | 3.76 | 3.88 | 4.21 | 33.9 | 3.6 |
| 2009 | SFN | 24 | 33 | 33 | 217.7 | 217.7 | 0.0 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 886 | 184 | 73 | 70 | 22 | 296 | 73 | 67 | 3 | 171 | 2.89 | 3.85 | 4.25 | 25.9 | 2.5 |
| 2010 | SFN | 25 | 33 | 33 | 223.3 | 223.3 | 0.0 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 896 | 181 | 84 | 78 | 22 | 302 | 61 | 57 | 4 | 177 | 3.14 | 3.67 | 4.23 | 21.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011 | SFN | 26 | 33 | 33 | 221.7 | 221.7 | 0.0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 907 | 177 | 82 | 71 | 9 | 260 | 63 | 58 | 9 | 179 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 3.47 | 29.5 | 3.0 |
| 2012 | SFN | 27 | 32 | 32 | 219.3 | 219.3 | 0.0 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 876 | 177 | 73 | 68 | 21 | 287 | 51 | 50 | 9 | 193 | 2.79 | 3.44 | 3.69 | 32.4 | 3.4 |
| 2013 | SFN | 28 | 9 | 9 | 56.3 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 51 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 99 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 49 | 5.43 | 5.22 | 6.17 | -4.6 | -0.5 |
| Career | 245 | 244 | 1593.0 | 1591.0 | 2.0 | 88 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 8 | 6567 | 1330 | 631 | 593 | 142 | 2142 | 541 | 510 | 45 | 1327 | 3.35 | 3.68 | 4.11 | 203.5 | 20.4 | ||
Advanced
'opp' stats - quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.| YEAR | Team | Lg | G | GS | IP | FRA | FRA+ | TAv | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | oppTAv | BABIP | PPF | PVORP | PWARP | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | HAG | A | 14 | 14 | 74.0 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .291 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2004 | SJO | A+ | 13 | 13 | 72.7 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .301 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2004 | NRW | AA | 15 | 15 | 86.0 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .264 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2005 | SFN | MLB | 7 | 7 | 46.3 | 4.20 | 108 | .182 | .276 | .344 | .445 | .268 | .156 | 100 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 2005 | FRE | AAA | 26 | 26 | 145.7 | 5.54 | 80 | .254 | .280 | .357 | .448 | .274 | .274 | 92 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2006 | SFN | MLB | 32 | 31 | 190.7 | 4.21 | 110 | .237 | .278 | .348 | .451 | .270 | .263 | 96 | 30.5 | 3.0 | 32.9 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | SFN | MLB | 32 | 32 | 200.0 | 4.18 | 109 | .234 | .279 | .350 | .450 | .274 | .278 | 95 | 25.7 | 2.5 | 27.3 | 2.8 |
| 2008 | SFN | MLB | 34 | 34 | 217.7 | 4.21 | 107 | .259 | .273 | .342 | .438 | .271 | .297 | 97 | 28.9 | 2.9 | 33.9 | 3.6 |
| 2009 | SFN | MLB | 33 | 33 | 217.7 | 4.25 | 103 | .236 | .271 | .344 | .435 | .269 | .263 | 96 | 21.9 | 2.2 | 25.9 | 2.5 |
| 2010 | SFN | MLB | 33 | 33 | 223.3 | 4.23 | 101 | .235 | .267 | .336 | .423 | .271 | .252 | 97 | 20.1 | 2.1 | 21.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011 | SFN | MLB | 33 | 33 | 221.7 | 3.47 | 110 | .224 | .263 | .331 | .416 | .269 | .260 | 93 | 25.2 | 2.7 | 29.5 | 3.0 |
| 2012 | SFN | MLB | 32 | 32 | 219.3 | 3.69 | 106 | .236 | .267 | .332 | .429 | .272 | .259 | 91 | 24.5 | 2.6 | 32.4 | 3.4 |
| 2013 | SFN | MLB | 9 | 9 | 56.3 | 6.17 | 54 | .264 | .270 | .335 | .426 | .273 | .242 | 101 | -5.2 | -0.5 | -4.6 | -0.5 |
| Career | MLB | 244 | 1593.0 | 4.18 | 104 | .237 | .271 | .340 | .434 | .271 | .263 | 83 | 152.2 | 15.4 | 171.1 | 17.0 | ||
Statistics For All Levels
| Year | Team | Lg | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | H/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | HAG | A | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 74.0 | 57 | 24 | 90 | 5 | 0% | .291 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 10.9 | 1.09 | 2.55 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2004 | NRW | AA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 86.0 | 73 | 40 | 72 | 7 | 0% | .264 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 1.31 | 3.35 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2004 | SJO | A+ | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 72.7 | 58 | 17 | 89 | 5 | 0% | .301 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 11.0 | 1.03 | 1.86 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2005 | FRE | AAA | 10 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 145.7 | 118 | 73 | 176 | 22 | 33% | .274 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 10.9 | 1.31 | 4.39 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2005 | SFN | MLB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 46.3 | 24 | 19 | 30 | 4 | 30% | .156 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 0.93 | 2.33 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 2006 | SFN | MLB | 13 | 12 | 0 | 32 | 31 | 190.7 | 157 | 87 | 179 | 18 | 39% | .263 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 8.4 | 1.28 | 4.15 | 32.9 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | SFN | MLB | 7 | 16 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 200.0 | 173 | 79 | 163 | 14 | 41% | .278 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 7.3 | 1.26 | 3.65 | 27.3 | 2.8 |
| 2008 | SFN | MLB | 8 | 14 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 217.7 | 206 | 91 | 186 | 19 | 34% | .297 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 1.36 | 3.76 | 33.9 | 3.6 |
| 2009 | SFN | MLB | 14 | 8 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 217.7 | 184 | 73 | 171 | 22 | 41% | .263 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 1.18 | 2.89 | 25.9 | 2.5 |
| 2010 | SFN | MLB | 13 | 11 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 223.3 | 181 | 61 | 177 | 22 | 37% | .252 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 1.08 | 3.14 | 21.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011 | SFN | MLB | 12 | 11 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 221.7 | 177 | 63 | 179 | 9 | 44% | .260 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 1.08 | 2.88 | 29.5 | 3.0 |
| 2012 | SFN | MLB | 16 | 5 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 219.3 | 177 | 51 | 193 | 21 | 41% | .259 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 1.04 | 2.79 | 32.4 | 3.4 |
| 2013 | SFN | MLB | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 56.3 | 51 | 17 | 49 | 13 | 37% | .242 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 7.8 | 1.21 | 5.43 | -4.6 | -0.5 |
Injury History beta
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-02-24 | 2013-02-28 | Camp | 4 | 0 | Right | Lower Leg | Contusion | Batted Ball | - | - |
| 2012-06-18 | 2012-06-18 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Forearm | Contusion | - | - | |
| 2011-02-28 | 2011-03-14 | Camp | 14 | 0 | Right | Elbow | Inflammation | - | ||
| 2009-07-12 | 2009-07-19 | DTD | 7 | 3 | Right | Elbow | Contusion | - | ||
| 2008-05-30 | 2008-05-30 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Groin | Contusion | Batted Ball | - | ||
| 2008-05-03 | 2008-05-03 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Thigh | Soreness | Hamstring | - |
Compensation
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BP Articles
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BP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-02-02 15:00:00 | Cory, the list of 12 is up (http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/ for those not in the know... shame on you!)and perennial underperformer Brandon Morrow is up there. What's your opinion on guys that consistently underperform their xFIP? Is Ricky Nolasco an anonomly or is there some skill defecit we're missing? (mattseward from Cardiff, UK) | This is a good area where "scouting" and observation can complement stats and analytics. My guess is that guys like this struggle with runners on base, so even though they have good pure stuff (as shown in the K/BB rates), they're more susceptible to big innings. This is certainly true of Nolasco... take out his four worst starts last year and he has what, a 3.25 ERA? On the other hand, you have guys like Matt Cain who consistently outperform their xFIP, xERA, whatever... so after 5-6 years of that we must conclude there is some skill at work there that guys like Nolasco and Morrow haven't developed yet. (Cory Schwartz) |
| 2012-01-26 13:00:00 | With Texas possibly offering Josh Hamilton an extension, wouldn't they be better off spending that money on Matt Cain, Cole Hamels or Zack Grienke? Assuming Mike Young and Hamilton are out of the 2013 picture, they can still fill an OF spot with Victorino, DYoung, or Melky. Of course, #TheLegend can probably play RF better than anyone on the roster. (Joe Random from In line at Shake Shack) | I wouldn't offer Hamilton an extension. I would let him walk and use those resources elsewhere. (Jason Parks) |
| 2011-06-14 13:00:00 | I have a very strong pitching staff in a long term keeper Strat-O-Matic 16 team league and I only need five starters. Which five of these would you keep? Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, CJ Wilson, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Kershaw, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, and Chris Narveson. Keep in mind I can keep them forever. (jhardman from Apex, NC) | Lincecum, Kershaw, Greinke, and Cain seem like obvious choices. I'd probably go with Beckett for the last spot, though Wilson might be safer, given Beckett's age and injury history. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2011-05-23 13:00:00 | Do you have a pet theory on Matt Cain and his consistent BABIP sorcery? (drmorris from San Fran) | My pet theory on Cain is that it's a lot of things working together, both on the BABIP and HR/FB fronts.
As an aside, and returning to an earlier question, one of the reason I'm not wild about the current BABIP and HR/FB approaches that are in sabermetric vogue is that I like to view HR as part of the spectrum of normal contact. I don't like to separate them out and try to talk about things in two buckets. If batters hit the ball hard and pull it, some of them are going to go out of the yard. Okay, returning to Cain. Some of it's ballpark. Some of it's that he doesn't allow batters to pull the ball as much as other pitchers do. Some of it's that contact against him is legitimately weaker. Some of it is the defense behind him. Maybe I'm leaving something out. Probably there are things that we don't understand, too, of course. (Mike Fast) |
| 2011-03-08 14:00:00 | As the flip to BABIP, Matt Cain always seems to do well with terrible secondary stats. Do you think he will eventually regress to where the stats say he will be or will he keep putting up a statistically-improbably low ERA? (mef from Brooklyn, NY) | Very true, he's posted an ERA lower than his xERA every year he's been in the rotation, and by quite a bit over the past two seasons, so you have to accept at some point that there is some greater skill in play there. Looking at his rate stats and some of the defenses he's had behind him it's hard to see what that might be, but this is a great area of study for the Pitch-f/x world... between deception, pitch selection and sequencing, location, and perhaps other factors, the answer must be in there somewhere! (Cory Schwartz) |
| 2010-11-09 14:00:00 | Shelby Miller ceiling is ___________? In terms of pitching prospects, I would rather have __________ over him? (Ben254 from St. Louis) | No. 2 starter, kind of a Matt Cain type?; very few. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2010-09-13 13:00:00 | Please fill in the blank.
This is the best NL Rookie Class since ________ (blank).
Thanks!
Bobby
(Bobby from New York) | Are we going strictly by league? Because the 2007 class had Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Hamilton among hitters, Tim Lincecum and Joakim Soria among pitchers. 2006 had Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon (who used to not suck), Jonathan Broxton (ditto)...
There's a lot to be excited about with this year's rookie class (Posey, Heyward, Santana, Stanton) but I'm in no rush to appoint them the best class of the past five years until I see much more. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2010-07-09 13:00:00 | Keeper league - would you rather have Josh Johnson & Matt Cain or Strasburg & Latos? (Stoney18 from Lincoln NE) | Strasburg/Latos. I love Josh Johnson, but that's not even close for me. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-10-08 14:00:00 | Thoughts on Matt Cain's long-term future? (chicago from il) | RIght around a #2 starter, very durable, K/9 around 7.0, ERAs in the 3.50-3.85 range. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-07-24 16:30:00 | Thanks for the your last unfiltered spot - it really helped clarify some thing for me. My question is in reference to a potential sim league (Diamond Mind) transaction but am curious as to your thoughts for the sake of MLB.
Howie Kendrick for Jon Sanchez. Who gets the better end of this deal for the rest of the year? Rest of the player's careers? (JM from Tucson) | Let me ask you this... if Sanchez didn't throw a no-hitter, would there be this hype? Bud Smith and Anibal Sanchez have also thrown no-hitters. Sanchez has talent but I really do fear his career takes the Oliver Perez route instead of the Matt Cain route. I'd need to know more about the league, like who you have in the infield and your staff but I do want to impart not to overrate Sanchez because he threw a no-hitter. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-06-05 15:30:00 | Eric, on your IMDB page it says you haven't missed a 76ers game in years. Might we see you write for Basketball Prospectus? (Jay from SD) | One of my goals for 2009 was to get more in tune with advanced basketball analysis. It hasn't happened yet for lack of time but I think it would be fun to compare my scouting eyes from watching so much over the years to what the numbers say. With baseball, I tend to only watch the Phillies, Greg Maddux, Matt Cain, and the 5 innings of Javier Vazquez before he implodes. With the NBA, I could watch a Grizzlies-Wizards game and be entertained. (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-02-19 13:00:00 | Will, I look at Matt Cain and say "he's pitched 200+ innings 3 years in a row. This trend shows that he'll likely do the same this year." You look at him and say "his heavy workload on a young arm is more likely breaking it down, rather than proving he's capable." You're clearly right, but I have a hard time thinking I'm completely off base. (ericmilburn from San Francisco) | I understand why you think that, but over and over we see that the mileage put on an arm before age 24-25 is, no matter how "babied", damaging in the long and short term. Maybe he's the freak that can handle it, but I'm talking about probabilities not certainties. Carlos Zambrano is the comp that comes to mind here, or Jeremy Bonderman. With him and every good young pitcher, I hope I'm wrong. (Will Carroll) |
| 2009-02-19 13:00:00 | I can pretty much take what you just said about Matt Cain, apply that to Felix Hernandez and feel bad about my team's future, huh? Anything special about the fact that Felix averages just under 100 pitches per start to brighten my day? (philosofool from Athens) | Or any young pitcher, so don't feel like I'm singling you out. In fact, Mr. Fool, you had a great comment about regression vs Verducci that has me working on a study, so please email me. (Will Carroll) |
| 2009-01-29 13:00:00 | I can't decide if Matt Cain is going to end up a #1, 2 or 3. What do you see for him in '09 and beyond? (ericmilburn from San Francisco) | I think Cain is a great #2 capable of putting up occasional #1 performances. The walk rate, even when you take out the IBB, is a little high for my liking if we're ranking him like this. For 2009 and beyond, a lot more of 2007-2008, which is nothing to complain about. He tends to be one of those people that someone in your league inevitably grabs way too soon though, thinking this is the year he whiffs 10 guys per nine all of a sudden. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-12-15 13:00:00 | My initial reaction to giving a player an opt-out clause (like Burnett, A-Rod, and CC) is that they were horrible decisions by the club. But upon further consideration, I actually like them in many cases. I think the most likely scenario is that CC stays relatively healthy and productive for the first 3 years of his deal. This probably leads him to opting out, which allows the Yankees to avoid the risker portion of the contract. Really, the only scenarios I can think of where it is less desireable than the straight 7-year contract is (1) the Burnett Scenario where he is not really healthy the first couple years, but opts out after a dominant 3rd year OR (2) he stays productive all 7 years, but opts out after 3 years and the Yankees miss 4 years of below-market production from an elite pitcher. But really, scenario #1 isn't that bad, particularly if the guy keeps getting injured (Toronto will probably be thrilled he opted out in a year). And to me, scenario #2 is pretty unlikely. If I'm the Yankees, I'm praying he opts out so I can go after Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, or Ervin Santana in 3 years for a similar deal. Am I crazy or missing something here? (mymrbig from New Orleans) | Joe Sheehan made largely this argument in Vegas. Not sure if he's written it, though I think he has. I'm looking at it as a 3 year contract with a 90 million buck insurance policy on it for Sabathia, because he only stays if things have gone wrong. So yes, I agree with you, Big. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-12-04 13:30:00 | Why are the Twins so willing to unload Delmon Young after only one season? Follow-up: what's the trade value for him--someone like Homer Bailey, or more like Matt Cain (or Matt Garza)? (Scott from Detroit) | Argh. Got a call and lost my answer to this...his value is between them, but if the Twins trade for a pitcher, Smith should be fired. Sand to the beach, and all that. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-10-09 14:00:00 | So, if your Doug Melvin, are you trading JJ? Moving him to 2B and Weeks to Center? Essentially, the question is this: If you're Dough Melvin, what trades and positional moves are you making for the Brewers this winter? (HRFastness from MKE) | I'd think about moving Hardy to 2B or 3B to accommodate Escobar (or maybe he moves, I don't know without talking to somebody more knowledgeable about his defense), I'd think about moving Weeks to CF or another team.
I think Prince Fielder may be a more tradable/replaceable commodity than Hardy. I know one of the big media wags proposed a Fielder/Matt Cain swap, which makes sense given the Brewers' need for pitching in a post-Sheets, post-Sabathia world. The Brewers would hear about it from their fans, though. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-10-06 14:00:00 | seems like a lot of analysts have come around on the Giants longterm outlook after this season... not following them closely what are the reasons this doomed franchise now seems to have some legit upside? (Jordan from LA) | The potential for a ridiculous homegrown rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Alderson, Sanchez and Sosa in about 18 months. The franchise isn't much, but it has shown the ability to draft, and even develop, pitchers. That group is why you hear a lot of Matt Cain trade rumors. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-05-09 14:00:00 | Does Steve Philips make you chuckle? He recently suggested in an ESPN article that the Reds should trade Dunn for Matt Cain and Jared Burton and Affeldt for Phil Hughes. (jdtk99 from Iowa) | I'd get a heartier laugh out of the man if he was in a front office instead of a studio; I suspect "Studio Transaction Analysis" would make for a really pointless exercise. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2008-03-25 14:00:00 | Christina, here's a chance to say something snarky about the Giants: go. (Chomsky from Brooklyn) | This morning, I noted in conversation that they'll suck with aplomb, but to be fair, they won't be entirely dull. I don't know where their season ticket sales are, but I'd want to see what Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Jonathan Sanchez can do. The pity is that lineup, which will be bad enough to get people jonesing for Bob Brenly comeback. (Christina Kahrl) |
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