Biographical

Portrait of Ben Lively

Ben Lively P  

CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Phillies Player Cards | Phillies Team Audit | Phillies Depth Chart

2016 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 24)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
125.3 4.39 1.32 100 7 9 0 0.6
Birth Date3-5-1992
Height6' 4"
Weight190 lbs
Age24 years, 4 months, 24 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.62016
+proj
DRA-Based WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA. (For previous card version with FAIR_RA, click here.)
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA
2013 DYT A 1 1 4.0 2 1 7 0 .267 114 4.5 2.2 0.0 15.8 62% .250 .206 0.75 0.59 2.25
2013 BIL Rk 12 12 37.0 21 12 49 0 .283 92 5.1 2.9 0.0 11.9 48% .250 .198 0.89 2.49 0.73
2014 BAK A+ 13 13 79.0 57 16 95 6 .267 108 6.5 1.8 0.7 10.8 35% .281 .196 0.92 2.97 2.28
2014 PEN AA 13 13 72.0 60 36 76 7 .261 100 7.5 4.5 0.9 9.5 37% .290 .261 1.33 4.01 3.88
2015 REA AA 25 25 143.7 160 45 111 14 .252 107 10.0 2.8 0.9 7.0 40% .336 .274 1.43 4.08 4.13
2016 REA AA 9 9 53.0 35 15 49 1 .257 105 5.9 2.5 0.2 8.3 39% .241 .193 0.94 2.63 1.87
2016 LEH AAA 12 12 74.3 62 20 50 8 .243 99 7.5 2.4 1.0 6.1 43% .241 .234 1.10 4.02 3.87

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2016 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/15/2015 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 8.7 8.7 0 28 28 146.2 120 40 116 16 .270 1.10 3.32 3.61 28.5 3.1
80o 8 8.8 0 27 27 138.9 122 41 110 16 .283 1.17 3.70 4.02 20.7 2.2
70o 7.5 8.8 0 26 26 133.7 123 41 106 16 .293 1.23 3.97 4.32 15.6 1.7
60o 7 8.9 0 25 25 129.3 123 41 103 16 .301 1.27 4.21 4.57 11.6 1.3
50o 6.6 8.9 0 24 24 125.3 124 42 100 16 .309 1.32 4.43 4.82 8.0 0.9
40o 6.3 8.9 0 23 23 121.3 124 42 97 16 .317 1.37 4.66 5.06 4.8 0.5
30o 5.8 8.9 0 22 22 117.1 125 42 93 16 .325 1.42 4.90 5.33 1.5 0.2
20o 5.4 8.9 0 21 21 112.3 125 42 90 16 .335 1.48 5.20 5.65 -2.0 -0.2
10o 4.8 8.8 0 20 20 105.8 125 42 84 16 .349 1.57 5.61 6.1 -6.3 -0.7
Weighted Mean6.68.802424125.11234110016.3071.314.404.798.40.9

2016 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 7/29/2016 10:24 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 7.7 8.6 0 26 26 136.7 120 40 106 16 .262 1.17 3.59 3.74 18.9 2.1
80o 7.1 8.6 0 25 25 129.6 121 41 101 16 .275 1.25 3.94 4.12 12.5 1.4
70o 6.6 8.7 0 24 24 124.6 123 41 97 16 .285 1.31 4.21 4.4 8.2 0.9
60o 6.2 8.7 0 23 23 120.4 123 41 94 16 .293 1.37 4.43 4.65 4.6 0.5
50o 5.9 8.7 0 22 22 116.6 124 42 91 16 .301 1.42 4.65 4.88 1.6 0.2
40o 5.5 8.6 0 22 22 112.8 124 42 88 16 .309 1.47 4.87 5.11 -1.3 -0.1
30o 5.2 8.6 0 21 21 108.7 125 42 85 16 .317 1.53 5.11 5.37 -4.4 -0.5
20o 4.8 8.6 0 20 20 104.1 125 42 81 16 .327 1.60 5.39 5.67 -7.6 -0.8
10o 4.2 8.5 0 19 19 97.9 125 42 76 16 .341 1.71 5.79 6.1 -11.8 -1.3
Weighted Mean5.98.602222116.5123419116.2991.414.624.851.90.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
10% 16% 9% 20% 36%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2017258902626152153501222135.3131.344.525.029.13.07.21.20.4
2018267802222131131461091735.3161.354.515.019.03.27.51.20.4
201927670191911311440901535.3151.374.525.029.13.27.21.20.3
202028570181810811037871535.3181.374.535.049.23.17.31.30.3
202129560171710010133821435.3161.344.484.989.13.07.41.30.3
20223056017179810232801435.3241.374.525.039.42.97.41.30.3
202331560171710210234831435.3151.334.454.959.03.07.31.20.4
2024325601616959631771335.3161.334.474.979.12.97.31.20.3
2025335501515919129741235.3151.324.454.959.02.97.31.20.3

Upside By Year

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
1319.11123.831.588.4

Previous Year Preseason Upside By Year

Yr Proj 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
20151319.11123.831.588.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 91)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 94 Josh Collmenter 2010 0.00 DNP
2 94 Adam Miller 2009 0.00 DNP
3 93 Matthew Bowman 2015 0.00 DNP
4 93 Luis Cruz 2015 0.00 DNP
5 93 Lance Lynn 2011 3.12
6 93 Matt Maloney 2008 0.00 DNP
7 92 Aaron Northcraft 2014 0.00 DNP
8 92 Wynn Pelzer 2010 0.00 DNP
9 92 John Ely 2010 5.67
10 92 Blake Wood 2010 5.26
11 92 Brad Peacock 2012 0.00 DNP
12 92 Garrett Richards 2012 5.83
13 92 James Gillheeney 2012 0.00 DNP
14 92 Adam Morgan 2014 0.00 DNP
15 92 Daniel Wright 2015 0.00 DNP
16 92 Kyle Weiland 2011 8.03
17 92 Jake Arrieta 2010 5.11
18 91 Luis Ramirez 2006 0.00 DNP
19 91 Chris Dwyer 2012 0.00 DNP
20 91 Andrew Bailey 2008 0.00 DNP
21 91 David Rollins 2014 0.00 DNP
22 91 Roenis Elias 2013 0.00 DNP
23 91 Cody Martin 2014 0.00 DNP
24 91 Trevor May 2014 8.08
25 91 Andrew Chafin 2014 3.86
26 91 Mike Kickham 2013 10.80
27 91 Jimmy Barthmaier 2008 10.45
28 91 Steven Wright 2009 0.00 DNP
29 91 Charles Brewer 2012 0.00 DNP
30 91 Paolo Espino 2011 0.00 DNP
31 91 Adam Conley 2014 0.00 DNP
32 91 Ryan Mullins 2008 0.00 DNP
33 90 Pierce Johnson 2015 0.00 DNP
34 90 Barret Loux 2013 0.00 DNP
35 90 Andre Rienzo 2013 5.46
36 90 J.R. Graham 2014 0.00 DNP
37 90 Graham Stoneburner 2012 0.00 DNP
38 90 Ross Stripling 2014 0.00 DNP
39 90 Eric Berger 2010 0.00 DNP
40 90 Sean Murphy 2013 0.00 DNP
41 90 Micah Owings 2007 4.78
42 90 Steven Matz 2015 2.27
43 90 Tobi Stoner 2009 4.00
44 90 Tyler Duffey 2015 3.10
45 90 Matt Loosen 2013 0.00 DNP
46 90 J.A. Happ 2007 11.25
47 90 Christian Friedrich 2012 6.48
48 90 Tyler DeLoach 2015 0.00 DNP
49 90 David Phelps 2011 0.00 DNP
50 90 John Gast 2013 5.11
51 90 Daniel Rosenbaum 2012 0.00 DNP
52 90 Brad Mills 2009 14.09
53 90 Jose Cisnero 2013 4.74
54 90 Yoervis Medina 2013 3.04
55 90 Taylor Rogers 2015 0.00 DNP
56 90 Zach Stewart 2011 5.88
57 90 Jose Ramirez 2014 5.40
58 90 Tim Crabbe 2012 0.00 DNP
59 90 Logan Verrett 2014 0.00 DNP
60 90 Erik Goeddel 2013 0.00 DNP
61 89 Luke Hochevar 2008 5.86
62 89 Kelvin De La Cruz 2013 0.00 DNP
63 89 Simon Castro 2012 0.00 DNP
64 89 Erik Davis 2011 0.00 DNP
65 89 P.J. Walters 2009 10.69
66 89 Jeff Manship 2009 5.97
67 89 Cody Scarpetta 2013 0.00 DNP
68 89 Tim Cooney 2015 3.45
69 89 Chase Huchingson 2013 0.00 DNP
70 89 Tyler Thornburg 2013 2.29
71 89 Cesar Valdez 2009 0.00 DNP
72 89 Ryan Buch 2012 0.00 DNP
73 89 Ariel Pena 2013 0.00 DNP
74 89 Steve Garrison 2011 0.00
75 89 Brayan Villarreal 2011 6.75
76 89 Zach Phillips 2011 1.12
77 89 Chris Withrow 2013 2.60
78 89 Armando Rodriguez 2012 0.00 DNP
79 89 Omar Poveda 2012 0.00 DNP
80 89 Matt Buschmann 2008 0.00 DNP
81 89 Brandon Workman 2013 4.97
82 89 Brandon Erbe 2012 0.00 DNP
83 89 Eric Jokisch 2014 3.77
84 89 Matt Barnes 2014 4.00
85 89 Sam LeCure 2008 0.00 DNP
86 89 Brad Meyers 2010 0.00 DNP
87 89 Alex Meyer 2014 0.00 DNP
88 89 Jordan Pries 2014 0.00 DNP
89 89 Matt Magill 2014 0.00 DNP
90 88 Matt Andriese 2014 0.00 DNP
91 88 Chris Balcom-Miller 2013 0.00 DNP
92 88 Gus Schlosser 2013 0.00 DNP
93 88 Shaun Marcum 2006 5.06
94 88 Matt Boyd 2015 7.69
95 88 Renyel Pinto 2007 3.68
96 88 Daniel Winkler 2014 0.00 DNP
97 88 Anthony DeSclafani 2014 6.27
98 88 Nick Tepesch 2013 5.03
99 88 Juan Nicasio 2011 4.40
100 88 Seth Streich 2015 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2016 Ben Lively saw a huge drop in his strikeouts as Eastern League hitters came prepared for his smoke-and-mirrors delivery, though there's likely still a major-league arm there in some capacity.
2015 Lively burst onto the prospect radar in 2014 with his dream statistical performance in the very unforgiving Cal League. That extreme success caused scouts to perk up, wondering what allowed him to dominate. Turns out Lively features a low-90s fastball and a trio of off-speed pitches, with his slider the best of the bunch, though even that is only flashing above-average potential at the moment. His overall profile is based on command and deception rather than stuff. Some believe he can make all this work as a back-end starter, but one scout questioned his ability to consistently perform in the rotation at the highest level, saying he had "reliever mechanics" and doubting that his secondaries would fool left-handers. Don't take one scouting report as a death knell, but do take this as a reminder not to scout by stats alone. Of course, even if you made that mistake, you'd note the Double-A performance and, in particular, the more-than-double walk rate.

BP Articles

Ben Lively is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, June 22ndChristopher Crawford2016-06-23
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of June 10-12Christopher Crawford2016-06-13
This article requires BP Premium accessWeekly Wrap: June 3, 2016Will Haines2016-06-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTDGX Transactions: CC Sabathia's Unforeseen RenaissanceGeorge Bissell2016-06-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty Dynamics: Seven Prospects to Stash or FlipBen Carsley2016-06-01
This article requires BP Premium accessWho to Watch: Eastern LeagueJeffrey Paternostro2016-04-13
Winter Is Leaving: Philadelphia PhilliesMichael Baumann2016-03-14
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2016Ben Carsley2016-02-26
2016 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2016-01-05
2016 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 ProspectsJeffrey Paternostro2016-01-05
This article requires BP Premium accessRubbing Mud: The Cole Hamels DecisionMatthew Trueblood2015-07-02
Eyewitness Accounts: May 28, 2015Chris Mellen2015-05-28
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, May 14, 2015Jeff Moore2015-05-15
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, April 27, 2015Jeff Moore2015-04-28
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, April 22, 2015Jeff Moore2015-04-23
This article requires BP Premium accessNotes from the Field: Phillies, Blue Jays, Twins ProspectsAl Skorupa2015-04-22
This article requires BP Premium accessLeague Preview Series: Eastern LeagueCraig Goldstein2015-03-30
Every Team's Moneyball: Philadelphia Phillies: Changing HabitsChristopher Crawford2015-03-30
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2015Ben Carsley2015-02-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessGet to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects for 2015Craig Goldstein2015-02-23
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: The Post-Offseason Top 10s: National LeagueNick J. Faleris2015-02-19
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: The Post-Offseason Top 10s: National LeagueChris Mellen2015-02-19
2015 Prospects: 2015 Organizational RankingsJeff Moore2015-02-17
2015 Prospects: 2015 Organizational RankingsMark Anderson2015-02-17
2015 Prospects: 2015 Organizational RankingsBP Prospect Staff2015-02-17
The Lineup Card: Eight Intriguing PECOTA ProjectionsBaseball Prospectus2015-01-23
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Byrd Has LandedBen Carsley2015-01-05
This article requires BP Premium accessTransaction Analysis: The Byrd Has LandedR.J. Anderson2015-01-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Team Preview: Cincinnati RedsBret Sayre2014-12-09
Before They Were Pros: NL CentralTodd Gold2014-11-25
Before They Were Pros: NL CentralPatrick Ebert2014-11-25
Before They Were Pros: NL CentralDavid Rawnsley2014-11-25
Before They Were Pros: NL CentralFrankie Piliere2014-11-25
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2014-11-21
This article requires BP Premium access2015 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 ProspectsNick J. Faleris2014-11-21
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, August 14Jeff Moore2014-08-15
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, August 6Jeff Moore2014-08-07
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Thursday, July 31Jeff Moore2014-08-01
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, July 8Jeff Moore2014-07-09
Eyewitness Accounts: July 3, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-07-03
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, June 23Jeff Moore2014-06-24
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Monday, June 2Jeff Moore2014-06-03
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May 28Jeff Moore2014-05-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Scoresheet Player Trend Watch: May Supplemental DraftBen Murphy2014-05-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Scoresheet Player Trend Watch: May Supplemental DraftIan Lefkowitz2014-05-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessTTO Scoresheet Podcast: Scoresheet Player Trend Watch: May Supplemental DraftJared Weiss2014-05-29
This article requires BP Premium accessNotes from the Field: May 20, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-05-20
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: May 19, 2014Jason Parks2014-05-19
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: May 19, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-05-19
This article requires BP Premium accessWhat Scouts Are Saying: May 15, 2014Baseball Prospectus2014-05-15
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 13Jeff Moore2014-05-14
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: May 5, 2014BP Prospect Staff2014-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessMonday Morning Ten Pack: May 5, 2014Jason Parks2014-05-05
This article requires BP Premium accessMinor League Update: Games of Tuesday, April 22Jeff Moore2014-04-23
25-and-Under Talent Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams from Top to BottomJason Parks2014-03-03
25-and-Under Talent Rankings: Ranking All 30 Teams from Top to BottomBP Prospect Staff2014-03-03
Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2014 Organizational RankingsJason Parks2014-02-26
This article requires BP Premium accessProspects Will Break Your Heart: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 ProspectsJason Parks2014-02-03


BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2015-05-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you know about Stephen Gonsalves? Stuff to match the numbers?
(SG from Phila)
He is just outside their top 10 for me. I think he could be a little something but not what the numbers indicate. Kind of like a Ben Lively situation last year. (CJ Wittmann)
2014-11-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)is Ben Lively able to keep his deception through the MLB-level, or does he really showcase as a #4 starter? Is his upside closer to dominant or more of an average MLB pitcher?
(Ron from Texarkana)
I think the deception plays, but the upside maxes out as a mid-rotation type with a higher likelihood he gives you solid innings in a number 4 package. The fastball/slider aren't quite impressive enough for me to view it as a shut-down closer type in the pen, so the back of a rotation seems like the most realistic fit based on skill set and value offered. (NL Central Top 10s With Nick Faleris)
2014-07-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which pitcher will have the highest impact in the Majors: Josh Hader, Aaron Blair, or Ben Lively?
(Steve from nowhere)
Tough one. Hader is a reliever for me but could be nasty. Lively back-end guy. Blair back-end guy with a chance for more. I'll go Blair. (Chris Rodriguez)
2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)Any news on Ben Lively and how he would compare on the list?
(Brady from Southeastern)
Very good arm but not a high-end profile; more of a #4 type. Not in consideration for the 50 despite the strong production. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
2014-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Folow-up to the Michael Lorenzen question... I have heard some people even prefer Ben Lively to Lorenzen. What futures do you see these two?
(LoyalRoyal from Kansas)
Those people aren't watching Lively or Lorenzen in person. I haven't seen either one either, but our guys have and I trust their reports. Lively got off to a great start this year but the stuff isn't dominant. He's a back-end guy. Lorenzen has a number two starter ceiling or could be an impact reliever. Lorenzen is closer to Stephenson than he is to Lively. (Jeff Moore)
2014-05-13 11:00:00 (link to chat)Ben Lively anything more than a back end starter?
(Ryan from Sarasota)
That's about where I have him pegged. Maybe a #3 in a perfect world scenario, but a likely 4/5 type. Deceptive arm slot/action; FB works 90-92 and can touch higher; changes sight lines and can work all four quadrants; riding action; slider can miss barrels and is either a 55 or 60 pitch depending on the source; average to solid average CH/CB; good pitchability and workhorse build. Not bad. (Jason Parks)
2014-05-13 11:00:00 (link to chat)Better long-term ceiling: Ben Lively, Aaron Blair, or Jen-Ho Tseng?
(Steve from Philly)
I would take Tseng. I dig it. (Jason Parks)
2014-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Paul, Daniel Winkler and Ben Lively have carried over last years success into this year with incredible early season performances. Are these guys for real and in a dynasty league would you add one or both in place of, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Martinez or Lewis Thorpe?
(Rup from DC)
I'd prefer them to the three others. I don't know that either is a star, but both are raising their stock (Paul Sporer)


BP Roundtables

No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.