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August 15, 2006

Prospectus Hit List

Week of August 13

by Jay Jaffe

RkTeam
Overall W-L
Week W-L
Hit List Factor
Trend
Comment

1


Tigers
76-41
1-5
.616
Down
Hold That, Tiger: after running their AL Central lead to double digits, the Tigers drop five in a row to the Twins and White Sox--the latter a sweep--to put the division back into play. But even the new ELO-adjusted version of our Postseason Odds--which take into account recent performance, not Jeff Lynne's pop wizardry--place Detroit's chances of winning the division at 83.3 percent, and the Tigers had gone 17-7 since the All-Star break prior to this streak, so it's a bit early to panic. Especially so with regards to Justin Verlander, who's roughed up by the Sox after returning from a skipped start; Jim Leyland and co. feel Verlander tipped his pitches, though Will Carroll says he was "pitching uphill."

2


Yankees
68-46
2-4
.604
Down
The Yanks stumble against both the White Sox and Angels, failing to capitalize on the Royals' sweep of the Red Sox. Mariano Rivera blows a save against Chicago, yielding just his second homer of the year, but his 4.496 WXRL is still third in the AL. Randy Johnson's no-hit bid turns into a hair-raising adventure. Robinson Cano returns after losing six weeks to a bad hammy and bangs out nine hits (six for extra bases) in his first four starts; he's hitting .331/.357/.471 for the year, and even with the absence, his 21.6 VORP is second among AL second basemen. Bobby Abreu belts his first home run since June 13 and is hitting .347/.418/.469 since being traded. But don't expect Hideki Matsui or Gary Sheffield back before September; neither has been cleared to swing a bat, and Will Carroll estimates Matsui is 15-20 days away.

3


Mets
71-45
5-1
.586
Up
The Mets withstand the return of Mike Piazza by sweeping the Padres, helping to push their Postseason Odds above 99.9 percent. But with Cliff Floyd hitting the DL due to a sore Achilles tendon and Xavier Nady having already been traded at the deadline, the lineup has been reduced to Endy Chavez (enjoying a career year at .300/.343/.436 but still stuck being Endy Chavez) and Lastings Milledge (.219/.297/.368) at the corners; in other words, thin enough to make hauling Michael Tucker out of the cryogenics lab a viable option. Regarding Milledge, note that even though he's walking more frequently since returning to the majors, his piss-poor unintentional walk rate (six in 128 PA) is a product of batting eighth, not improved control of the strike zone.

4


White Sox
70-46
5-2
.578
Flat
Just When I Thought I Was Out, They Pull Me Back In: the White Sox fall 10 games behind the Tigers early in the week, but a weekend sweep of Detroit--after taking a series from the Yankees, no less--leaves them just 5.5 back. Jose Contreras tosses his first major-league shutout; his 4.7 SNLVAR is sixth in the AL, despite something of a second-half slump. Meanwhile, Joe Crede's two homers on the week make him one of four White Sox with at least 25 homers (Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye are the others); they could become the 11th team with a 30-homer quartet. Crede is hitting .305/.340/.556, and his .193 MLVr is second only to A-Rod (history's greatest monster) among AL third basemen.

5


Red Sox
68-48
3-3
.567
Down
Having already lost their previous two games to the Devil Rays, the Sox go to Kansas City and are swept by George Brett, Amos Otis and Hal McRae Angel Berroa, Runelvys Hernandez and Ambiorix Burgos. Curt Schilling surrenders 10 extra-base hits to the Royals, a mark equalled only twice in the past 105 years and made all the more preposterous by KC's .401 SLG, 29th in the majors. Since blanking the A's on July 15, the Big Schill has just one Quality Start in five, a stretch during which he's yielded a 5.84 ERA in 32.2 IP. Similarly struggling is rookie Jon Lester--6.92 ERA in 27.1 IP over his last four starts, walking fewer hitters but getting hit harder lately. Given those worries, the Sox have to hope that David Wells can produce more starts like his latest; as it stands, their 10.8 SNLVAR is 12th in the AL, and even with a weekend sweep of the Orioles, they're just 15-15 since the All-Star break.

6


Twins
68-49
3-4
.561
Down
The Twins briefly take over the AL Wild Card lead, but things soon grow much more dire. Francisco Liriano, who missed a start last week and downplayed his discomfort, is hit hard by the Tigers, then heads to the DL with a strained UCL and shoulder weakness; whether he'll return this year is an open question. Phenom Matt Garza debuts as anticipated, but is unable to overcome jitters and is roughed up (2.2 IP, 7 ER). The Twins have started five rookie hurlers, but the likes of Garza, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser and Mike Smith have combined for 23 GS, 114.2 IP, a 6.91 ERA and -16.1 VORP. Couple that with what they've gotten from Carlos Silva (6.41 ERA, -11.1 VORP), and you can pretty much kiss the Twins goodbye unless their co-ace returns soon. Meanwhile, in the News of the Weird, Torii Hunter has either found a way to atone for his defensive miscues, or else let the Twins know he's completely incapable of caring for his nutritional needs.

7


Blue Jays
63-55
5-2
.556
Up
With the offense apparently taking the week off (.235/.290/.375), the Jays right their sinking ship (Postseason Odds 3.1 percent) with some good ol' fashioned pitching. The staff turns in a 2.32 ERA for the week, with Ted Lilly tossing six scoreless frames and A.J. Burnett whiffing a season-high 10 hitters. The Jays have to hope this is the start of Burnett turning things around; he's produced just 7.9 VORP and 1.3 SNLVAR, third on the team--not exactly a great return for the $7 million plus eight annual round-trip limo rides between Toronto and Maryland for his wife (Kevin Brown he ain't) stipulated in his contract.

8


Rangers
61-58
5-2
.540
Up
A five-game winning streak--in which they crush the A's and Mariners by a combined score of 51-19--snaps the Rangers out of their second-half funk and keeps them in the thick of the AL West race. Leading the offensive assault are Mark DeRosa (.433/.438/.900 with four HR for the week), Carlos Lee (.484/.529/.774), and Gary Matthews Jr. (.321/.459/.750 ). Matthews (40.8) and DeRosa (32.3) are 1-2 on the team in VORP; the two 31-year-olds have already demolished their 90th percentile PECOTA projections for VORP (27.6 and 10.5, respectively). Lee is hitting .351/.388/.527 since being traded from the Brewers; his post-trade VORP (7.1) is already nearly the equal of the player he replaced (Kevin Mench, 8.2).

9


61-57
4-3
.538
Flat
Despite a decent week in which they continue to pester the Yankees (4-2 this year, 15-10 since 2004), the Angels lose ground to the A's; their Postseason Odds have dropped from 39.7 percent to 26.5 percent since the trading deadline, and they've played just .500 ball since then. Rookie hurlers are what's keeping them in the race. Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders have combined to win all 12 of their decisions; Weaver's 30.4 VORP is second on the team and fourth among AL rookies. Meanwhile a couple of the Angels' rookie hitters have fallen on harder times. Howie Kendrick's hitting streak ends at 16 games, while Mike Napoli is mired in a 4-for-54 slump. That's given more playing time to Jose Molina (.382/.436/.618 during that span); he's got a 10-game hitting streak that, like Molina himself, you could time with a sundial--it dates back to July 22.

10


Dodgers
62-56
6-1
.538
Up
The Dodgers run their winning spree to 15 out of 16 and take over first place in the NL West, though the topsy-turvy nature of their second-half streaks has much to do with quality of competition; the Reds have been their only .500+ opponent since they returned to their winning ways. Schedule quirk or no, Rafael Furcal has caught fire during the streak, hitting .379/.446/.621 with 14 runs and 12 RBI. Jeff Kent returns from the DL with a couple of bangs--his first since June 27. Newly-acquired Wilson Betemit has hit four homers, including a game-winner on Saturday; his 13 on the year between LA and Atlanta are more than any Dodger hitter. Speaking of new acquisitions, Greg Maddux has allowed just two runs and nine hits in 20 IP as a Dodger and is averaging just 11.05 pitches per inning.

11


Indians
53-64
6-1
.529
Up
Haf Time: Travis Hafner enjoys an eventful weekend at the expense of the Royals, driving in the winning runs in both ends of a doubleheader on Saturday (the latter his 100th of the season), then cranking his record-tying sixth grand slam of the year to key an 11-run first inning. Though his team's season went to hell in a handbasket three months ago, Hafner is first in the AL in VORP (65.9; frequently driven in teammate Grady Sizemore is second at 56.5), and he's driven in 20.1 percent of runners according to our RBI report (which in an ideal world would apply something like Tom Ruane's Base-Out methodology to those opportunities). As for the positive run differential that has the Tribe lingering in the upper half of the Hit List despite being 11 games under .500, Marc Normandin offers a handy graphic breakdown showing that they're 10-2 in games decided by ten or more runs, 20-20 in games decided by four to nine runs, and a pathetic 23-42 in games decided by three runs or fewer.

12


Padres
60-57
2-4
.513
Down
Mike Piazza homers twice in a Shea lovefest, but the Padres are swept by the Mets and fall out of first place; they're now just 12-17 in the second half. As predictably as the sun setting on the NL West, Khalil Greene has yet another hand injury, a bruise after being hit by a pitch on the same hand in which he'd previously sprained a finger. Hitting .254/.324/.444, Greene's had a mediocre year; his 17.3 VORP is seventh on the team and eighth among NL shortstops, but when the alternative is Geoff Blum (-4.7 VORP, an MLVr that's 0.192 runs per game lower, and a 92 Rate), every day out of the lineup means runs down the drain.

13


Rockies
57-60
3-4
.504
Flat
For all of the talk about the humidor, the Rox appear to live up to their nature by managing just nine runs in four games at LA, then coming home to pound the Cubs for 25 in three games. Actually, quality of competition is a better explanation; though Colorado managed to end the Dodgers' 11-game winning streak in their lone LA victory, the Dodgers are obviously playing fine ball right now, while the Cubs' season has resembled the Bataan Death March since those early rumors about Mark Prior started circulating in February. Whatever. Since the All-Star break, the Rockies have been holding opponents to 3.87 runs per game, but they've been scoring just 4.27; their fans had better hope that the signing of Vinny Castilla (.232/.260/.319) is a token gesture for a final round of Coors instead of an attempt to light a fire under the offense. With third baseman Garrett Atkins positively en fuego since the break (.318/.400/.618), that's likely, but this adminisition has certainly made dumber moves before.

14


Athletics
65-52
5-1
.503
Flat
A 14-3 run has cleared the A's from the realm of .500 and given them a 4.5 game cushion over the Angels in the AL West. Leading the way during the streak: Dan Haren (4-0, 1.50 ERA and 23/4 K/BB in 30 IP), Jay Payton (.344/.394/.590) and Milton Bradley (.304/.391/.554). The A's are 20-9 since activating Bradley from the DL, and they've been winning without last year's talisman, Bobby Crosby--10-2 since he went on the DL, with Marco Scutaro hitting .282/.364/.487 in his absence; Crosby could be back on Tuesday, so if the winning stops... Speaking of returns, Rich Harden is playing short-toss for five minutes at a time, so don't hold your breath.

15


Cardinals
62-55
2-5
.495
Down
Cards Fold: Tony LaRussa's squad has lost 13 out of 17 after being swept by the Pirates over the weekend, and their Postseason Odds are now down to 63.8 percent. Adding insult to injury, they score just three runs against the Bucs as Scott Rolen--hot this month at .345/.394/.759--misses all but the series' final at-bat due to back spasms, then grounds into a game-ending double play. During the skid, the rotation has been hammered to the tune of a 5.94 ERA while averaging just 5.25 innings per start; the delayed return of Mark Mulder won't help that. Despite the rotation's shortcomings and Adam Wainwright's Sunday meltdown, the Cards' bullpen is second in the NL in Reliever Expected Wins Added (8.414).

16


Reds
61-57
4-3
.493
Down
Cornroyo No: Bronson Arroyo's new hairdo--a return to his old one, actually--doesn't help him in pursuit of his 10th victory; he's yielded a 5.29 ERA and a hair-tearing 2.23 HR/9 in 10 starts since winning his ninth. Speaking of tearing one's hair out, supporters of Wayne Krivsky might be doing so after learning of the new GM's due diligence failure when it came to asking about Gary Majewski's health; the reliever, acquired in an already awful deal with the Nationals, is now on the DL with shoulder tendonitis, and the Reds are mulling a grievance against Ol' Leatherpants. Still, after splitting a four-game series with the NL Central leaders, the Reds trim the Cardinals' lead to 1.5 games while holding onto the Wild Card lead.

17


Diamondbacks
59-58
3-3
.490
Down
Livan Hernandez pitches reasonably well in his D'Back debut, but his new teammates manage just three hits and one run. Brandon Webb is shakier in his return from a missed start, but gets the victory thanks in part to a three-RBI day from Carlos Quentin. The rookie rightfielder--#27 on our Top 50 Prospect list this spring--is hitting .300/.386/.680, though he's gotten just 50 AB since being recalled on July 20. That may change soon given a report that Shawn Green cleared waivers and may be asked to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate a deal to the Mets. Speaking of highly-regarded rookies, Stephen Drew (#19 on the list) is up to .344/.385/.615 on the strength of an 11-game hitting streak.

18


Braves
54-62
3-3
.483
Flat
With the rotation already depleted--Hudson and Smoltz and then pray for 20,000 volts--the Braves lose Horacio Ramirez to a torn ligament in his middle finger, likely for the season. Despite being limited to 76.1 innings due to hamstring and head injuries (the latter on a line drive), Ramirez is third on the staff in SNLVAR (2.3) and fifth in VORP (9.8). In happier news, Brian McCann (.350/.407/.571) would be leading the NL in batting average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify; he's 28 shy of the requisite 3.1 per game, but finding the 170 he'll need over the next 46 games is a tall order for a catcher. Still, he leads NL catchers in VORP (40.3)--his 0.403 MLVr is actually higher than Joe Mauer's 0.376--and is 10th in the league overall.

19


Astros
57-60
4-2
.482
Up
Despite dropping the weekend's series to the Padres, the Astros tighten up the NL Central race by gaining 2.5 games on the Cardinals. Andy Pettitte strikes out 10 Padres and becomes the second Astro pitcher in three days to crack a homer (Roy Oswalt also went deep). Pettitte has allowed just six runs in 20.1 IP this month, lowering his ERA to 4.86; nonetheless he continues to talk of retiring after this season. The power burst coming from their rotation--not to mention the emergence of Luke Scott (.415/.467/.659 in 82 AB since being recalled around the All-Star break)--empowers the 'Stros to DFA Preston Wilson (.269/.309/.405, -2.9 VORP).

20


Phillies
56-60
3-3
.480
Up
After winnning 10 of 15 to entertain visions of sugar plum fairies and wild card games, the Phils endure a real Nutcracker series in which they play 34 innings over three days, losing twice to the Reds and trimming their Wild Card hopes back into the single digits, percentage-wise. And just in case Philly fans aren't concerned enough about 2006 slipping away quickly enough, GM Pat Gillick is already punting next year ("Realistically, I think it'll probably be a stretch to think that we're going to [have a shot] in 2007. It's going to take a while..."). The rotation is still a huge stumbling block; the team's 7.5 SNLVAR outranks only the Royals, the Ross Eversoles, and the Tatum O'Neal-less Bad News Bears. Good news: in Cole Hamels' last three starts, the rookie has yielded five runs in 20.1 innings, with a 25/5 K/BB ratio.

21


Giants
54-63
1-5
.480
Down
A sweep by the Dodgers--culminating in a walk-off homer that puts eight Jason Schmidt shutout innings to waste--runs the Giants' streak of futility to 3-15; they're now nine games under .500 and 7.5 out of first in the NL West. Stop us if you've heard this one before: Barry Bonds goes just 3-for-16 with nary a homer on the week, and the Giant offense struggles to score runs (just 19 in six games). Since the All-Star break, the team is averaging just 4.04 runs per game, while Bonds has hit .235/.404/.441. Bigger troubles may be looming for the big slugger; BP legal advisor Keith Scherer offers "A Guide to Bonds' Legal Situation" and suggests that Bonds is "almost certain" to be indicted on perjury and tax evasion charges, that the so-called "ostrich defense" won't fly, and that if indicted, the likelihood of Bonds going to jail is "high." Whew.

22


Marlins
55-62
4-2
.476
Up
Reports concerning Jeffrey Loria's knee-jerk decision to fire Joe Girardi continue to surface; for his part, the Marlins' manager says "I'll discuss things at the end of the year. Right now the important thing is our club, and I'm still the manager of the Marlins."--a solid sign that Deadball Joe is counting the days until his exit. Too bad, because the Marlins continue to impress. Joshua Johnson reclaims the NL ERA lead; his 35.1 VORP is second-best VORP

23


Mariners
56-61
3-4
.475
Down
A four-game drubbing at the hands of the Rangers--by a combined score of 37-19--knocks the Mariners to nine games back in the AL West and narrows their Postseason Odds to less than one percent. In a start that rivals Luke Hudson's for worst of the week, Gil Meche is torched for nine runs (just four earned) in the first inning; his six walks didn't help matters. Meche has gone just 15.1 innings in his last four starts, yielding 18 earned runs and a 13/16 K/BB ratio. Also getting lit lately is Jamie Moyer; he's managed just one Quality Start in his last seven dating back to July 5, posting a 7.32 ERA in 39.1 innings. One has to wonder if the jig is up for the 43-year-old after a decade in Seattle.

24


Brewers
55-62
3-3
.450
Flat
After leaving his previous start with a cramp, Ben Sheets lasts seven innings and strikes out eight in his return. For all of his injury woes, his control is still fantastic; he's sporting a 52/4 K/BB ratio in 43.1 IP. Meanwhile, with their sights fully set on next year, the team decides to sit slumping, .392-slugging Geoff Jenkins (who's signed through 2007) in favor of Corey Hart and Gabe Gross. Hart's gotten just 175 AB between Triple-A and the majors, while Gross has hit .271/.374/.488 in 170 AB spread out over 99 games.

25


Nationals
51-66
2-4
.445
Flat
Losers of 10 out of 15, the Nats have really solidified their hold on last place in the NL East against the backdrop of the He Said/She Said game over Gary Majewski (seldom has so mediocre a reliever caused so much fuss so late in the season). Meanwhile, with the departure of Livan Hernandez leaving a sizable void in the Nats rotation, the team turns to Billy Traber, who beats the team that made him a first-round pick in 2000. In turn, the Mets exact revenge when Michael Tucker--released this spring by the Nats--hits a tiebreaking home run. Ouch.

26


Orioles
51-67
1-5
.431
Down
Losers of eight out of 10, including a three-game series against the Red Sox, the O's are the gift that just keeps on giving... the Bird. Miguel Tejada flips off the Toronto crowd after striking out against B.J. Ryan and is fined but not suspended, thereby allowing his consecutive-sham streak to continue. Russ Ortiz and his 9.23 ERA are granted a start, one which lasts all of three brutal innings. Rodrigo Lopez and his 6.12 ERA miss a turn and squawk. Daniel Cabrera returns from the minors and walks just one batter in seven innings, but makes it up to Satan in his next outing.

27


Cubs
49-68
2-4
.420
Down
Shoot the Horse, Already: a cascade caused by pitching through shoulder weakness likely ends Mark Prior's season after another trip to the DL; he finishes at 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA and -9.4 VORP. Though that soap opera has wrapped up, the Dusty Baker one continues: "I'm not getting fired, my contract just expires." Dan Fox invokes the ghost of Ricky Gutierrez in discussing some of Dusty's less-endearing traits, particularly his fetish for light-hitting middle infielders; newly-acquired Cesar Izturis is hitting .238/.319/.286 with -2.0 VORP as a Cub--helping the season end that much more quickly by gobbling up outs, perhaps--while Greg Maddux has helped the Dodgers into first place.

28


Pirates
45-73
3-3
.411
Flat
There's No Place Like...: the Pirates drop three in Houston, then take three at home from the Cardinals, limiting the NL Central leaders to just three runs in three games and continuing a home/road split that borders on the absurd. In Pittsburgh, the Bucs are 31-28 (better than the Reds' 31-31), scoring 4.95 runs per game while allowing 4.66--a competitive team, in other words. On the road, they're 14-45, scoring a paltry 3.88 runs per game while allowing 5.53, a pace that projects to a -270 run differential over the course of a year; not the '62 Mets (-331) but still stink-on-ice awful. Among their hitters with at least 140 PA, six--Chris Duffy, Craig Wilson, Jeromy Burnitz, Jose Bautista, Jose Castillo, and Freddy Sanchez (two lefties, four righties)--have an OPS at least 200 points higher at home, while only two--Jason Bay and Sean Casey (one lefty, one righty)--have an OPS more than 10 points better on the road. Among pitchers with 40 IP, six--including lefties Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Mike Gonzalez and John Grabow--have ERAs at least 0.90 runs better at home, while just three--righties Roberto Hernandez, Victor Santos, and Ian Snell--have similar advanages on the road. A subject for further inquiry, to say the least.

29


Devil Rays
47-71
0-6
.400
Down
The Rays endure their first winless (full) week of the season, but the stink has been going on for awhile. They've gone just 9-24 since July 5, as offense seems to have become a thing of the past; they're hitting .236/.298/.397 and scoring just 4.27 runs per game in that span, with Jonny Gomes (.093/.196/.175), Jorge Cantu (.209/.278/.374) and Rocco Baldelli (.226/.252/.330 and a 28/2 K/BB ratio) the worst offenders. The losses of Julio Lugo, Aubrey Huff and Ty Wigginton (hitting a combined .354/.413/.608 in that span prior to being traded or DLed) haven't helped, nor have slow starts from recent recalls Ben Zobrist (.244/.256/.366) and B.J. Upton (.196/.229/.217). As for the pitching, the staff has been giving up 5.97 runs per game during that span, but that's hardly out of the ordinary where this franchise is concerned.

30


Royals
41-77
3-4
.363
Flat
They Go to Extremes: the Royals start the week with a 11 first-inning runs (their 11th loss in a row at Jacobs Field, to boot). The Luke Hudson bandwagon crashes in dramatic fashion (0.1 8 11 10 3 1), fluffing up Hudson's ERA to 6.39 thanks to his first bad start out of seven as a Royal (and the worst first inning since 1897). But Hudson's simply sinking to the level that the rest of the rotation has produced this month: 7.84 ERA in 49.1 innings (less than five per start) and a 32/34 K/BB ratio. Hey, at least they've got a top 30 ranking in SNLVAR, right? Take that, 1884 Kansas City Cowboys of the Union Association...


The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jay's other articles. You can contact Jay by clicking here

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