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2013 Projections (seasonal age 29) - Rest of Season Projections
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| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | GS | IP | IP-SP | IP-RP | W | L | SV | BS | QS | BQS | PA | H | R | ER | HR | TB | BB | UBB | HBP | SO | ERA | FIP | FRA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | BOS | 22 | 15 | 15 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 0.0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 367 | 91 | 43 | 43 | 7 | 134 | 43 | 42 | 5 | 60 | 4.76 | 4.60 | 4.80 | 8.5 | 0.7 |
| 2007 | BOS | 23 | 12 | 11 | 63.0 | 61.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 275 | 61 | 33 | 32 | 10 | 98 | 31 | 31 | 1 | 50 | 4.57 | 5.31 | 6.34 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 2008 | BOS | 24 | 33 | 33 | 210.3 | 210.3 | 0.0 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 874 | 202 | 78 | 75 | 14 | 290 | 66 | 65 | 10 | 152 | 3.21 | 3.67 | 4.26 | 31.6 | 2.9 |
| 2009 | BOS | 25 | 32 | 32 | 203.3 | 203.3 | 0.0 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 843 | 186 | 80 | 77 | 20 | 281 | 64 | 64 | 3 | 225 | 3.41 | 3.20 | 3.73 | 47.6 | 4.8 |
| 2010 | BOS | 26 | 32 | 32 | 208.0 | 208.0 | 0.0 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 861 | 167 | 81 | 75 | 14 | 246 | 83 | 83 | 10 | 225 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 4.37 | 27.4 | 3.1 |
| 2011 | BOS | 27 | 31 | 31 | 191.7 | 191.7 | 0.0 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 799 | 166 | 77 | 74 | 20 | 265 | 75 | 75 | 11 | 182 | 3.47 | 3.86 | 4.58 | 20.6 | 2.0 |
| 2012 | BOS | 28 | 33 | 33 | 205.3 | 205.3 | 0.0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 876 | 216 | 117 | 110 | 25 | 350 | 68 | 66 | 4 | 166 | 4.82 | 4.06 | 5.07 | 14.0 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | BOS | 29 | 10 | 10 | 65.7 | 65.7 | 0.0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 267 | 52 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 82 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 52 | 3.15 | 3.47 | 4.39 | 7.7 | 0.8 |
| Career | 198 | 197 | 1228.7 | 1226.7 | 2.0 | 91 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 8 | 5162 | 1141 | 534 | 509 | 115 | 1746 | 448 | 444 | 47 | 1112 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 4.53 | 155.9 | 15.4 | ||
Advanced
'opp' stats - quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.| YEAR | Team | Lg | G | GS | IP | FRA | FRA+ | TAv | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | oppTAv | BABIP | PPF | PVORP | PWARP | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | AUG | A | 24 | 21 | 106.0 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .295 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2004 | SAR | A+ | 21 | 20 | 90.3 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .329 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2005 | PME | AA | 26 | 26 | 148.3 | 0.00 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -.444 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2006 | BOS | MLB | 15 | 15 | 81.3 | 4.80 | 102 | .282 | .283 | .347 | .453 | .274 | .333 | 99 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 0.7 |
| 2006 | PAW | AAA | 11 | 11 | 46.0 | 4.93 | 92 | .260 | .264 | .333 | .406 | .260 | .284 | 102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | BOS | MLB | 12 | 11 | 63.0 | 6.34 | 73 | .264 | .279 | .346 | .440 | .272 | .279 | 102 | -1.6 | -0.2 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 2007 | GRN | A | 3 | 3 | 13.0 | 4.75 | 83 | .219 | .261 | .324 | .392 | .267 | .281 | 95 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | PME | AA | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4.21 | 112 | .253 | .252 | .334 | .359 | .262 | .263 | 102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | PAW | AAA | 14 | 14 | 71.7 | 4.32 | 100 | .240 | .269 | .338 | .399 | .257 | .290 | 96 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2008 | BOS | MLB | 33 | 33 | 210.3 | 4.26 | 113 | .237 | .273 | .341 | .431 | .271 | .297 | 104 | 31.8 | 3.2 | 31.6 | 2.9 |
| 2009 | BOS | MLB | 32 | 32 | 203.3 | 3.73 | 126 | .232 | .274 | .342 | .446 | .274 | .313 | 105 | 47.0 | 4.7 | 47.6 | 4.8 |
| 2010 | BOS | MLB | 32 | 32 | 208.0 | 4.37 | 106 | .227 | .266 | .334 | .425 | .271 | .289 | 104 | 26.9 | 2.8 | 27.4 | 3.1 |
| 2011 | BOS | MLB | 31 | 31 | 191.7 | 4.58 | 103 | .245 | .264 | .332 | .431 | .275 | .286 | 106 | 21.0 | 2.2 | 20.6 | 2.0 |
| 2012 | BOS | MLB | 33 | 33 | 205.3 | 5.07 | 92 | .265 | .260 | .325 | .424 | .269 | .312 | 106 | 14.7 | 1.6 | 14.0 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | BOS | MLB | 10 | 10 | 65.7 | 4.39 | 105 | .213 | .256 | .320 | .427 | .271 | .249 | 103 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 0.8 |
| Career | MLB | 197 | 1228.7 | 4.41 | 108 | .244 | .269 | .335 | .433 | .272 | .298 | 87 | 141.9 | 14.5 | 141.9 | 14.1 | ||
Statistics For All Levels
| Year | Team | Lg | W | L | SV | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | GB% | BABIP | H/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | VORP | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | AUG | A | 6 | 9 | 0 | 24 | 21 | 106.0 | 102 | 44 | 71 | 7 | 0% | .295 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 1.38 | 3.65 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2004 | SAR | A+ | 7 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 90.3 | 82 | 37 | 97 | 2 | 0% | .329 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 9.7 | 1.32 | 4.29 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2005 | PME | AA | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 148.3 | 114 | 57 | 163 | 10 | 0% | -.444 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 1.15 | 2.61 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2006 | PAW | AAA | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 46.0 | 43 | 25 | 43 | 5 | 44% | .284 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 8.4 | 1.48 | 2.74 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2006 | BOS | MLB | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 81.3 | 91 | 43 | 60 | 7 | 41% | .333 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 1.65 | 4.76 | 8.5 | 0.7 |
| 2007 | GRN | A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13.0 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 50% | .281 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 10.4 | 1.00 | 2.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | PAW | AAA | 4 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 71.7 | 67 | 31 | 51 | 4 | 46% | .290 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 6.4 | 1.37 | 3.89 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | PME | AA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 32% | .263 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | BOS | MLB | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 63.0 | 61 | 31 | 50 | 10 | 36% | .279 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 7.1 | 1.46 | 4.57 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 2008 | BOS | MLB | 16 | 6 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 210.3 | 202 | 66 | 152 | 14 | 50% | .297 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 1.27 | 3.21 | 31.6 | 2.9 |
| 2009 | BOS | MLB | 15 | 8 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 203.3 | 186 | 64 | 225 | 20 | 49% | .313 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10.0 | 1.23 | 3.41 | 47.6 | 4.8 |
| 2010 | BOS | MLB | 19 | 9 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 208.0 | 167 | 83 | 225 | 14 | 54% | .289 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 1.20 | 3.25 | 27.4 | 3.1 |
| 2011 | BOS | MLB | 15 | 9 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 191.7 | 166 | 75 | 182 | 20 | 51% | .286 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 8.5 | 1.26 | 3.47 | 20.6 | 2.0 |
| 2012 | BOS | MLB | 9 | 14 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 205.3 | 216 | 68 | 166 | 25 | 51% | .312 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 1.38 | 4.82 | 14.0 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | BOS | MLB | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 65.7 | 52 | 18 | 52 | 5 | 51% | .249 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 7.1 | 1.07 | 3.15 | 7.7 | 0.8 |
Injury History beta
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-08-25 | 2012-08-30 | DTD | 5 | 0 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - | - |
| 2012-05-19 | 2012-05-19 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | Low Back | Stiffness | - | - | |
| 2011-07-06 | 2011-07-25 | 15-DL | 19 | 14 | Left | Shoulder | Strain | Latissimus Dorsi | - | - |
| 2011-03-05 | 2011-03-11 | Camp | 6 | 0 | General Medical | Respiratory | Flu | - | ||
| 2009-09-26 | 2009-09-26 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Thigh | Contusion | Quadriceps | - | |
| 2009-09-01 | 2009-09-01 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Groin | Strain | - | ||
| 2007-03-23 | 2007-06-11 | 60-DL | 80 | 62 | General Medical | Recovery From Surgery | Cancer Treatment | - | ||
| 2006-08-24 | 2006-10-01 | 60-DL | 38 | 35 | General Medical | Illness | Lymphoma | - |
Compensation
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BP Articles
Jon Lester is referenced in the following articles.
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BP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-05-23 13:00:00 | Is Ryan Raburn even worth holding onto in AL leagues at this point? (paulbellows from Calgary) | You can gauge my fantasy expertise, or lack thereof, by the fact that I traded a $20 Jon Lester for a $5 Ryan Raburn in my 12-team AL-only league this spring. I'm still holding onto him and hoping for the best, but I'm doubtful he's going to see anything close to the 500 ABs I was hoping for in spring. I still believe he has hitting talent. He's not going to hit for a great average, but his power is good enough, and his glove will help keep him in the field. However, Boesch is pushing his playing time, and Detroit is in a position in the division where they may be less likely to be patient with Raburn's early struggles. (Mike Fast) |
| 2011-04-05 13:00:00 | Hi Steven. After the Red Sox cut Daniel Bard, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Carl Crawford, and fire Terry Francona they can still win 140 games and win the World Series, right? (mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR) | The panic in Boston is as exaggerated as this question, and I'm sure that if an angel sent Lot into the city to find 20 good men who weren't panicked by an early sweep, he would easily fulfill his quota and spare Beantown a hail of brimstone. The Red Sox are still the class of the league. Some champions go wire-to-wire, some don't. That's all it is. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2010-09-21 13:00:00 | What do you make of the Cy Young argument in the American League? (Bobby G from Helena) | I think it should be Felix Hernandez or Jon Lester, and it comes down to their last few starts. Lester seemed like he had fallen out of the race, but he has been nigh untouchable for about five starts now and propelled himself right back into it. I wrote something about it about a week ago, but then he went and shut the Jays down over the weekend as well. Here's a link! (Marc Normandin) |
| 2010-06-28 14:00:00 | Where does Jon Lester fit into the discussion of being one of baseballs finest hurlers....? (caseyj15 from Medford, Oregon) | He might be a top five guy. Taking more than just half a season into account I'd put Halladay, Lincecum, and Lee above him, and maybe Josh Johnson as well, but there aren't a whole lot of others who definitively belong above him. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2010-04-28 13:00:00 | I know he started slowly in 2009 also, but how long before Jon Lester turns things around this year? (mcquown from Chicago) | That's a hard question to answer in some ways, but presumably not very long. Nothing appears to be wrong physically and his stuff seems fine. I was at Fenway for a game recentyly where he struck out the side in the first inning but then quickly devolved into suckitude. Good pitchers usually get over these bumps sooner rather than later, and if doesn't, well....the Red Sox are in deep doo doo. (David Laurila) |
| 2010-02-11 13:00:00 | How would you rate in order the following pitchers by overall (short and long term) value? Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Randy Wells, Derek Lowe and Josh Johnson. (caseyj15 from Medford, OR) | Short term: Santana, Johnson, Beckett, Lester, Lowe, Wells
Long term: Santana, Johnson, Lester, Beckett, Wells, Lowe (Shawn Hoffman) |
| 2010-01-21 13:00:00 | The first Red Sox player to be selected in a non-keeper fantasy league is _____. (BR from NYC) | Jon Lester. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-09-14 16:30:00 | Jon Lester: great pitcher or the greatest pitcher? But seriously, folks, how awesome has Lester been? I know that's terrible question, but I'm sending it in anyway. Thanks for the chat! (mattymatty from Phillly, PA) | "I'll put you down for greatest."
In all honesty, his ridiculous jump in strikeout rate is insane! Without even dropping his walk rate too! It looks like he is throwing all the same pitches, and only a little bit faster than before, but just getting people to miss like crazy. It's a great story, and he's a great story in general. (Matt Swartz) |
| 2009-09-02 13:00:00 | Just how good is Jon Lester? (mattymatty from Philly) | As odd as this may sound, Lester has done so well that he is no longer thought of as a cancer-survivor pitching in the big leagues. As I wrote in our Player Profile of him last year, reputations are hard to shake in the big league level, and Lester has performed so well that he has transformed his rep from "he survived a debilitating illness to become an MLB pitcher" to "he's one of the best lefties in the game." (Eric Seidman) |
| 2009-09-08 13:00:00 | I'm not going to win the Cy Young somehow, am I? (Mo Rivera from Bronx) | I know your ERA is shiny, but do you really deserve it, Mo? Jon Lester is worth about three times as many wins as you, and he isn't even my pick for AL Cy Young (hi Zack Greinke!) (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-07-13 14:00:00 | Still think we've already seen the best of Jon Lester's career? (judy from MA) | With a 60% in K rate and no loss of other features, I'd have to say that I'm open to the idea that I was wrong. Keep in mind that he's still not as good, overall, as he was a year ago.
The lesson here is probably to remember that players with nonstandard development paths--Lester's was interrupted by cancer--need to be regarded carefully. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-06-24 13:00:00 | In reference to J.P. from Harford's non-question about jerseys, purchasing a jersey is an interesting conundrum. On one hand you want to have one of your favorite player, but on the other you have to be careful that your favorite player doesn't end up playing against your favorite team in a year's time. This is not only embarrassing (see "Damon, Johnny"), but expensive (see "Damon, Johnny"). I just recently put in for a Jon Lester jersey. Lester is signed through 2014 if the Red Sox want him that long. By that time I'll hopefully have saved up for another jersey if necessary.... I guess I don't have a question either. (mattymatty from Philly) | I initially read that as "I just recently put in for a Johnny LeMaster jersey," which would make you my hero of the day. Or I would feel really sorry for your delusional state. I'm not sure which. Roy Sievers would be a much better choice. (Steven Goldman) |
| 2009-06-18 13:00:00 | Marc, you're always very methodical, realistic, and fact based in your assesment of future player performance. How about making a bold, gut-based prediction - right here, right now? (ericmilburn from San Francisco) | Hey, I appreciate that a lot. So I hope that means no one holds this against me. Jon Lester will win the AL Cy Young this year. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2009-05-18 14:00:00 | Have we seen the best of Jon Lester, or is this just a temporary bump in the road? (mattymatty from Philly) | I'll admit to being a Lester believer, but I accept that many of my colleagues disagree and have suggested that we've seen his best work. I think his PECOTA comps are appropriately suggestive, given his age; I see Bob Knepper '79 or Tom Glavine '91, and I figure the upside play's worth dreaming on, even while I'd admit that it's a reach. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2009-04-06 13:00:00 | "He may be the Red Sox' second-best starting pitcher by October." Who's #1? Beckett or Lester? (Justin from Chapel Hill, NC) | Beckett. I think we just saw Jon Lester's best season. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2009-02-16 14:00:00 | Jon Lester will pitch ____ innings this season. (mhixpgh from Pittsburgh) | 204.2. I was gonna go with 206, but there is that start against the Twins in August when Francona is going to pull him too early. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2009-02-17 13:00:00 | Hey Bryan, long time no chat. I've been reading your stuff for years, and I remember Jon Lester was always one of your favorites, going back to when he was a little-known prospect and you correctly predicted a breakout 2005 double A season for him. You said back then that lefties with his kind of stuff are very rare. Now that he's more polished, I'm curious to hear how you think his stuff rates on the scouting scale. Were you surprised by his stellar 2008 season, and what do you see in his future? Do you think he could be great, as opposed to just very good? Would you take Lester or Sabathia for the next five years? THANKS, and great to see you around again! (Christina from Brookline) | Thanks Christina, good to be here. That was a good year for my breakout prospect list, and I've been admiring Lester ever since. As far as southpaws go, few have better stuff than Lester, who really broke through after adding that final pitch a year ago. I have to admit I didn't see such success coming as soon as 2008, when he really wasn't far down the Cy Young ballot. I think you have to take Sabathia for the next five years, but I do think Lester can develop into a real ace. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2009-02-10 14:00:00 | Which AL starters do you think can consistently be among the best in terms of pitching the most innings and allowing the fewest runs over the next three years (other than Halladay and Sabathia)? (DS from Monterey Park, CA) | I guess I like rolling the dice after all, but I think Jon Lester, John Danks, and King Felix are all ready to settle in and start doing better and better things. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2009-01-29 13:00:00 | Do you think Jon Lester will continue to improve this year? (Lily from Boston) | In the sense that he won't start out pitching poorly, yes. I'm not sure that he can do much better than what he did once he put things together though. I would expect more along the lines of his excellent run from that start against Halladay onward, which will make his overall 2009 stats appear better than his 2008 ones. (Marc Normandin) |
| 2008-12-23 14:00:00 | Would you rather have the next 7 years of Jon Lester or Zack Greinke? How about Clay Kershaw or Francisco Liriano? (doog7642 from Blaine, MN) | Lester and Liriano, but that's as much about who they're with as it is a comment strictly about their talent. (Christina Kahrl) |
| 2008-11-19 13:00:00 | I recall you writing somewhere that you had a theory that Jon Lester seemed to become stronger towards the end of the season, in spite of pitching many more innings than he had ever before, because he had built up stamina when he was pitching in a weakened state in 2007, his "recovery" year. Could you elaborate, and do you think his performance next year will suffer from his 70 inning jump this year? (Opel from Boston) | Just a theory. I think his 2007 had a "multiplier" in there because he was building stamina at less than full strength and came out fine. The Red Sox have much better data and over the next few years, they're going to really build an advantage with pitchers unless some other teams catch up. Mike Reinold might end up as valuable as any player on their team by 2012. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-10-17 13:00:00 | Did you see any markers from Jon Lester that indicate excessive fatigue/injury or was it just one of those games where good hitters beat a good pitcher? (Joe from Tewksbury, MA) | Looked a bit tired, wasn't as sharp, just couldn't establish himself. I don't think the Sox - a team that can quantify strength and fatigue in addition to having a solid pitching coach - would send him out there with excessive anything. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-10-14 13:00:00 | You are Theo Epstein: would you trade Jon Lester for Brian McCann? (mattymatty from Philly) | Two separate people just suggested this.
Yes, I do. But I'm ridiculously high on McCann, and am notoriously wary of pitchers. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-10-06 14:00:00 | Which teams has the better chance to pull the upset, the Angels or the White Sox? (Rob from Brighton) | White Sox. They're facing the lesser team, with Game Four at home, and instead of facing Jon Lester, they're facing Andrew Sonnanstine. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-08-29 12:00:00 | Recent start in Toronto notwithstanding, is Jon Lester as good as he's pitched this year? (doughowgate from Boston) | I think the big question with Lester is whether or not his step forward in G/F ratio is sustainable. If you take a look at his pre-season PECOTA card (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/lestejo01.php), he's way down in the bottom 20% of pitchers in G/F--a flyball pitcher. Last year his ratio was 0.77, the year before that 1.03. This year it's up to 1.43, and he's gotten 23 ground-ball double plays already, which has obviously been huge because his WHIP (1.30) isn't fantastic. With all those grounders he's also cut his homer rate by a huge amount. Given that he's 24 I certainly wouldn't bet against this being the start of a really great career. (Caleb Peiffer) |
| 2008-06-18 13:00:00 | Who do you think should start the All Star game for the AL? I think it should be Kazmir. You better not say Mussina... (Erik from OPS,FL) | Francona picking for a game played in Yankee? I don't think you can say Jon Lester, though that would be my pick. Mussina? Hell, it's an exhibition. Why not? (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-05-20 13:00:00 | Jon Lester: middling pitcher who got lucky last night? Or is he as good as his champions insist? (Nick Stone from New York, NY) | Hey Nick! It certainly helped that Lester was facing the Royals, a team whose offense I referred to in the Hit List a couple weeks back as the Double-A affiliate of the Little Sisters of the Poor, though they do fare better against lefties than righties.
Lester is a pitcher who's got some upside, but PECOTA doesn't love him. The current weighted mean forecast on his card is for a 5.04 ERA, and it's not hard to see why; his track record is that of a flyball pitcher who tends to walk too many hitters relative to the number he strikes out. He's walking 4.2 per nine even after last night, and striking out 5.7 -- not a very good ratio, but he s gotten away with it this year thanks in part to a .255 BABIP. Beating cancer is a great story, and pitching a no-hitter is icing on the cake, but he's still got work to do to become a top-shelf pitcher. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2008-03-26 12:00:00 | What do you see for Edison Volquez this year? And is Jon Lester going to vastly underperform the RSN expectations? He puts far too many men on base. (big baby from nj) | I know Volquez is the popular breakout pitcher this year, with Milledge taking that title as breakout hitter. Talk about post-hype breakout candidates, huh? Volquez is good, but he's going to have a lot of bad starts ... remember, he's never been consistent. And when you ask me about Lester, you have to remember I'm a huge fanboy. I think he's only going to improve from last year's start. (Bryan Smith) |
| 2008-01-14 13:00:00 | Hi Will:
Who do you see as comeback player of the year in 2008?
Were you serious about Schilling for Cy Young; can he stay healthy enough to rack up those wins. The Sox were pretty cautious with him this year and it paid off well. (Pat Barry from Albany NY) | The Sox weren't cautious, they were smart. I think they can be smart all season and given the Sox talent, anyone that makes 34 starts for them could get to 20 wins. Note that the Cy is almost always decided on wins, which makes it relatively easy to predict. I'm not saying they're the BEST pitcher out there (though Sabathia was ... tho Bedard was better aside from the injury, but was on a terrible team.)
I'll admit to not really understanding the comeback player award. I'd guess someone like Ryan or maybe even Jon Lester could get votes. (Will Carroll) |
| 2008-01-28 13:00:00 | Kevin Goldstein has said that towards the end of the season, it looked like Jon Lester's stuff was coming back to pre-cancer form. Gammons mentioned that his changeup and curveball improved dramatically in the postseason. What did you see, and how do you think Jon Lester will perform this season? Do you think it's a good bet his command will improve? Do you still see him as having a high ceiling? (Kris from NJ) | Oh, there is an absolutely undeniable difference between Lester in that gutsy first start against Cleveland and Lester in the playoffs. Against the Indians in the regular season, his stuff was not back, particularly his curveball I thought. I think he will be much better this season, and I'm just so glad his ceiling will be unaffected by the bump in the road he had to deal with. (Bryan Smith) |
BP Roundtables
| Date | Roundtable Name | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-10-13 17:00:00 | NLCS Game Four | As far as tonight goes...well, I'm the guy who thought Jon Lester at Fenway against the Rays was just this side of a gimme. I'm kinda rooting for the Phillies to hit lots of singles to center with a runner on second. I don't know exactly who the coverage is aimed at, Gary, but it occurs to me that there are more of them than there are of us. And they vote. (Joe Sheehan) |
| 2008-10-02 11:00:00 | Thursday Playoff Games | Hey Joe, Jon Lester says hi. (Will Carroll) |
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