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July 14, 2014

Top 50 Dynasty League Prospects

Midseason Update

by Bret Sayre


With the All-Star break upon us, the time has come for some reflection. It’s the time of year when we can stop checking our fantasy teams on a daily basis—trust me, those standings won’t change until the second half starts back up—and use that time in a more productive manner. Like mowing the lawn or giving your sister a call. Maybe you’ve been meaning to pick up a new book. Or, then again, maybe you’re the kind of person who wants to spend the beginning of his/her All-Star break reading way too many words about re-ranking the top 50 prospects in baseball from a fantasy angle. Sound good? Good.

In the first three-and-a-half months of the 2014 season, we’ve lost 14 of the top 50 fantasy prospects to the majors, including six of the first 16. So with talent lost comes talent found. There are 16 fresh faces in this hallowed space, and the charge is led by Rangers’ slugger Joey Gallo, who climbed 72 spots to nearly find a place in the top 10 overall. There are plenty of other big jumpers alongside the otherworldly power source, but why give the milk away for free when you could just read the list below.

Overall, the upper minors are nearing low tide and it’s rather apparently by the wealth of Low-A and High-A names on this list. The 2011 draft, which was one of the best we’d seen in a while, has now produced a number of major league regulars and stars, but the lack of depth in the classes behind it has lagged the minor league talent pool behind what we’re used to. Fortunately, the 2014 draft class (who were not eligible for this list) is very strong and deep, so the talent infusion has already started.

Speaking of eligibility, time to get to the standard housekeeping with these lists. This list is for fantasy purposes only, and only takes eligibility into account, not the quality with which they play their given position (though that may indirectly have an effect on their fantasy value). Since values are a sliding scale between the shallowest and deepest formats out there, this list (and all of my dynasty lists) are constructed with a medium depth mixed league in mind (think 14-16 teams) with a separate farm system. In shallower leagues, high risk/reward players get a bump and in deeper leagues, safer players tick up. Finally, since fantasy leagues are all about eligibility, there are players currently in the major leagues on this list, but only ones who have not surpassed their rookie eligibility. The last of these graduates to move on to bigger and better things was Jonathan Singleton, who just got his 131st at-bat on Sunday.

Within the list below, in addition to the write-ups, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including his potential fantasy value (in dollars) at his peak and the risk factor associated with his reaching that peak. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any fantasy that carry impact potential. For this exercise, we defined “impact” as having the potential to be in the top 15 to 20 players in a given category. For instance, hitters with 30-homer potential are considered “impact” performers in that department, while pitchers can earn the strikeout distinction by flashing the stuff necessary to whiff 200 batters in a season. And finally, you’ll see a quick summary of what’s changed since the pre-season top 100 list was put out during the pre-season.

And yes, that concludes our introduction. Without any further ado, here are your Top 50 Dynasty Prospects as of this exact moment in time:

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Fantasy,  Dynasty Leagues

41 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

ChicagoOriole

Does Profar no longer qualify? Or is he no longer Top 50?

Jul 14, 2014 04:25 AM
rating: 0
 
Mike Schieve

I would say he no longer qualifies. He had over 300 PA last year.

Jul 14, 2014 04:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Mike is correct. Profar wasn't eligible.

Jul 14, 2014 07:06 AM
 
SJLedet

Thoughts on Eddie Butler?

Jul 14, 2014 06:15 AM
rating: 0
 
FrankSides

If he was in any other system (home park) & wasn't injured, he'd be on the list.

Jul 14, 2014 06:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

The combination of the shoulder injury, organization and future home park all played a role in his barely missing the top-50. He would have been in the next 10 though.

Jul 14, 2014 07:57 AM
 
matt844

DJ Peterson close to cracking the list? Having a tremendous year and appears to be on the fast track to SEA/ even if that means a shift to 1B. Thoughts?

Jul 14, 2014 06:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Very close. Another late cut. I'm more concerned about the org's inability to develop hitters than I am the move from 3B to 1B.

Jul 14, 2014 08:06 AM
 
Camwulf

He was fun to watch in the Future's Game yesterday.

Jul 14, 2014 09:12 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

Who do you prefer for a dynasty league: Carlos Correa or Addison Russel?

Jul 14, 2014 07:38 AM
 
Hellgrammite

I had a choice in my 14-team Dynasty league draft at the BOY to grab Addison Russell/Baez/Correa. Chose Russell since he seemed to have the highest floor, and most likely to stick at SS through his 20s, which is huge.

Reminds me of Arenado except with a better BB-rate and speed.

Jul 14, 2014 09:32 AM
rating: 0
 
timjrohr

I could be wrong, but I think the question, from a BP staffer, was facetious. The answer to the question is the list itself, but other folks occasionally ask equally obvious questions, only seriously.

Jul 15, 2014 10:53 AM
rating: 0
 
vegetto712

I am shocked to not see Sean Manaea at least in the honorable mentions. What gives? Command too scary? I've heard good things about his year, even though he hasn't been shut down dominant a near 12 K/9 is great

Jul 14, 2014 08:21 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

I can only speak for myself, but an 11.5% walk rate at High-A is a bit of a concern. Add in that he's only in High-A, and a fair bit away from the majors and there's just no rush putting him in the top 50. He is missing a ton of bats, but he's missing the zone too, and I don't expect him to be a strikeout per inning guy at the MLB level, which limits his overall profile. I still love Manaea, but it just wasn't top 50 material this far away from the majors, for me.

Jul 14, 2014 09:37 AM
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Manaea was actually on the first two incarnations of the list, but fell off at the end. The stuff and command has been inconsistent and he's further away at this point than I thought he'd be. I fully expect him to make the top-50 in the off-season though.

Jul 14, 2014 09:50 AM
 
Gumby

Manaea and Alex Reyes very similar in this regard. Both showing great stuff and K's but command/delivery issues whereas I think BP had high hopes for both to be top-50 by midseason.

Jul 14, 2014 11:42 AM
rating: 0
 
vegetto712

I always forget how old he is too, he's a bit old for High A, hopefully he gets that command in control

Jul 14, 2014 12:46 PM
rating: 0
 
SydFinch

Where would any of the recent 2014 dratees slot in?
Schwarby, Rodon, Jackson, Kolek, Aiken

Jul 14, 2014 08:42 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

As of right now, only Rodon and Schwarber would make the top-50. A healthy Aiken would as well, but that's an unresolved situation. The depth of this draft class is significantly stronger than the high-end talent.

Jul 14, 2014 09:53 AM
 
ares1800jr

has anything changed with Peraza, Jose SS Atlanta? Has he developed his hitting skill enough to utilize that elite speed?

Jul 14, 2014 08:45 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

It's better, but it's still not a high-end profile. Peraza would have made the list had it gone 15-20 names deeper.

Jul 14, 2014 09:58 AM
 
username49

Actually Surprised Dahl is not higher. Parks was brave enough to support a future statistical comparison to Andrew McCutchen. He is still in low A, but I would think his potential makes him a top 15 guy.

Jul 14, 2014 08:51 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

There is exactly one player still in Low-A ahead of Dahl on this list, and that's Giolito--who could be the best pitcher in baseball one day. Dahl has big fantasy potential, but I'm not ready to make that kind of statement on him.

Jul 14, 2014 10:02 AM
 
bline24

Where would Gausman be on this list?

Jul 14, 2014 09:08 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

He'd be the top pitcher, either right before or right after Sano.

Jul 14, 2014 10:03 AM
 
Meepits

Can someone remind me what we're thinking Buxton's power potential could be?

Jul 14, 2014 09:10 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Could be 25+ homers at peak. He's a monster of a prospect.

Jul 14, 2014 10:05 AM
 
mc7788

Would Schwarber have placed on this list if you were ranking new draftees? In the BP Top 50, it was stated that he would have fell in the 45-50 range. Would his status as a bat-first prospect allow him to trend up and push top-30 for fantasy?

Jul 14, 2014 09:24 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Yea, he'd come pretty close to top-30 if he were on the list. The performance is impressive, but he's an advanced college bat and he should be impressive. The next step will be a big test.

Jul 14, 2014 10:06 AM
 
patsmack

Lewis Brinson, huge risk I know, but showing a better approach this year with a decline in K-rate. The upside warrants a sniff at a top-50 list, no?

Jul 14, 2014 10:13 AM
rating: 1
 
fsumagic

How would Seager rank on this list if he was listed now at 3B? Does he have the power to play above average?

Jul 14, 2014 10:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

If I knew 100% that he would never play a game in the majors at SS, he'd still be ranked in the same spot. The bat is real, and while the power may not be elite, the overall package could be extremely valuable at either position.

Jul 15, 2014 06:36 AM
 
boatman44

I heard Jorge Alfaro put on a masterclass at batting practice at the future's game, who would be a comparable player Piazza or Molina ? Cheers.

Jul 14, 2014 11:32 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Neither? Alfaro is his own creation and could hit .260-.270 with 30 homers and double-digit steals if it all works. But despite impressive BP sessions and raw tools, it's still unlikely to all work in that fashion.

Jul 15, 2014 06:38 AM
 
teaaker

Dalton Pompey has had a great year so far...is he close to being ranking in a top 50 type list for fantasy baseball? His speed alone makes him enticing imo.

Jul 14, 2014 12:51 PM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

He'd clearly be in the top-100 at this point, but he wasn't seriously considered for the list.

Jul 15, 2014 06:39 AM
 
cnote66

Shocked that Anderson is so high on the list, but Crawford gets HM? After reading this article, from your site: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23964
I was convinced they were closer and maybe JP AHEAD of Anderson. This will be a good one to re-visit in 5 years.

Jul 14, 2014 16:30 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

It's all about the defense. Anderson has far more potential for fantasy than Crawford, regardless of what position he ends up at.

Jul 15, 2014 06:40 AM
 
sbau45

Does Odor qualify for this list? What are your thoughts on what he is doing now and what you expect going forward?

Jul 14, 2014 19:42 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

He didn't qualify, but would probably slot in around where Betts was--I think they're of similar value long-term. Odor won't be flashy in fantasy, but he has the potential to contribute all over with a high average.

Jul 15, 2014 06:41 AM
 
MaineSkin

Mookie Betts is not this good. The MiL on base streak was just beaten and no one knows bc he's not undersized playing for Boston. Just like Peddy, he'll continue to be worth more in fantasy due to name than anytime in real life.
Soler, Franco, etc...over Mookie. Mark it down

Jul 14, 2014 21:30 PM
rating: -1
 
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