What if you got a new job, even on a very temporary basis, and had virtually nothing to do? That is the situation I find myself in as I fill in as the Athletics' general manager while Billy Beane takes the day off.
Beane has already crossed many items off the to-do list, most notably exercising the club options for 2011 on second baseman Mark Ellis ($6 million) and center fielder Coco Crisp ($5.5 million) while sending third baseman Eric Chavez into retirement by buying out his 2011 option for $3 million.
Furthermore, Beane has whittled the list of arbitration-eligible players down by from 12 to eight by dropping right-hander Boof Bonser, infielder Aki Iwamura, and outfielders Jeremy Hermida and Gabe Gross off the 40-man roster. Beane even made the right decision when pitching coach Curt Young decided to leave for the Red Sox by promoting well-regarded bullpen coach Ron Romanick.
Even better, the pitching staff is so good and so young that I don't need to make any changes or worry about being unable to afford eight-figure contracts on a small-market budget. No reason messing with a staff that gave up the fewest runs in the American League in 2010.
However, there is one pressing issue that faces the A's this offseason and I'm going to make it my objective to fix during my 24 hours. The A's need a big-time power hitter, as their 89 home runs last season were the fewest in the major leagues and their average of 4.09 runs per game was just 11th in the AL and 23rd in the major leagues.
The most logical place to add the power bat is either right field or designated hitter. Catcher Kurt Suzuki certainly isn't going anywhere, and I'd keep the infield intact with first baseman Daric Barton, Ellis, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, and shortstop Cliff Pennington. Crisp fills the leadoff and center-field holes just fine when he is healthy, and the time has come for rookie Chris Carter to be the starting left fielder, as he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.
Ryan Sweeney spent the majority of last season as the right fielder and hit only one home run in 331 plate appearances before undergoing knee surgery. Designated hitter Jack Cust's home run total dropped to 13 last year, and even his .395 on-base percentage can't mask the decline in power, as he had averaged 28 homers over the previous three seasons.
Considering right-hander Ben Sheets' $10 million is off the books now that he is a free agent—and he's not coming back on my watch—I have some money to play with on the free-agent market. Optimally, I'd rather sign a free agent than trade from my pitching depth.
The DH I would target is a player who, in the fickle eyes of many media members, went from Comeback Player of the Year candidate to washed up in the past week. That would be Vladimir Guerrero, who became a free agent Wednesday when the Rangers declined the mutual option in his contract. While Guerrero had an awful World Series by going 1-for-14 with five strikeouts, it shouldn't mask that he had a .300/.345/.495 slash line, 29 home runs, and a .288 TAv in 643 plate appearances during the regular season while showing he can stay healthy for a full season if used as a DH.
Perhaps Guerrero's stock fell enough in the span of five bad games that I could get him for less than the $5.5 million he made this season. I doubt it, though, which is why I'd be willing to offer a one-year, $8 million contract with a vesting option for 2012. At 35, Guerrero still has something left in his bat, which is why I'd go to $10 million if his side really pressed the issue.
My Plan B at DH would be Hideki Matsui, who isn't quite the player he used to be with the Yankees but is still a productive hitter at 36. He was solid for the Angels this year, hitting .294/.361/.459 with 21 homers and a .294 TAv in 554 plate appearances. If Guerrero won't take my money, I'd start the bidding at $6 million for Matsui and give up to $8 million, but I won't include an option.
As far as right field is concerned, I would try to work out something with Conor Jackson, who is arbitration-eligible and coming off two awful years, the first of which was ruined by a case of Valley Fever. Jackson did show some signs of improvement after the Athletics acquired him from the Diamondbacks last season, as he posted a .267 TAv in 69 plate appearances before suffering a hamstring injury.
While I wouldn't offer the 28-year-old Jackson arbitration as the most he can be cut is 20 percent from his $3.1 million salary, I would offer him the type of contract that would be enticing to someone looking to rebuild his value. I'd guarantee him $1.25 million for 2011, which he would have a hard time getting on the open market, with performance bonuses worth $3.5 million and a $5 million club option for 2012 with a small buyout of $25,000. I'd be rolling the dice without taking on too much risk, and Jackson could benefit to the tune of $10 million if he returns to his previous level of play.
If I get Guerrero or Matsui to come to Oakland and Jackson to agree to the creative contract, perhaps they would write a book or make a movie about me. It would have to be a short story, though, since my career would only span 24 hours.
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I just don't see how you upgrade your team by spending more money to get the same or lesser production.
If you want to upgrade the offense, you should consider replacing Kouz at 3B with somebody who can find first base.
*To put a popint on what other posters said, Vlad had an on-base of .322 and hit only 9 homers in the second half last year. At his age, I think it's fair to speculate that's the beginning of the end.
*With Chavez and Duchscherer also off the books, they get back 24.5 million from the two of them and Sheets.
*Beane has already sounded like he is going to be a Scrooge this Christmas, saying they don't want to overspend until they're ready to move into a new park.
http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101004&content_id=15413198&vkey=news_oak&c_id=oak
*He has also said they don't want to compromise the defense so the DH might be the place to improve.
*Depending on the pythagenport record you choose to look at, the expected wins of the A's were between 85 and 86 while Texas was between 88 and 91.
*Texas will lose Lee and Guerrero while the A's will gain Carter.
1st half 2010 - Vlad's back!
2nd half 2010 - man, Vlad was not too good, I guess he's cooked
The moral of the story is that none of these are significant enough samples to judge on their own, and it appears people are breaking down his numbers along these time frames.
Just look at your "small" sample conclusions: bad full year, good 1/2 year, bad 1/2 year. That adds up to 75% bad over the past two full years. Certainly an over-simplification, but that's not evidence worth considering?
Vlad's bb rate is becoming a liability, and he can barely move at all anymore. I have no problem with a one-year deal trying to catch the last of his ability to be a bit above average, but implying we can't draw significant conclusions from what he's done over the past 2 years is just silly.
I find it funny that now the sample size bias has swung pretty far back in the other direction, with people wanting enormous sample sizes to draw any conclusions. Players just aren't the same at age 36 as they were at 28. You can't put much weight in success that far back when projecting forward now (as I'm sure PECOTA and other systems realize). Recent samples become so much more valuable for aging players, as you're projecting imminent decline (vs potential future growth for youngsters).
As were 10th of 14 in the AL in OPS last year, yet no significant offensive additions?
I can understand if one had certain finaial constraints, but in a "what if" scenario like this, give the A's something!!!!!
You don't even address the 5th starter hole. Mazzaro is not the answer. De La Rosa has been tossed around and it makes a lot of sense.
What about Pena as a DH?
As someone already mentioned, Jack Cust = Guerrero, Matsui
"If I get Guerrero or Matsui to come to Oakland and Jackson to agree to the creative contract, perhaps they would write a book or make a movie about me. It would have to be a short story, though, since my career would only span 24 hours."
A movie? A movie! I know you are poking fun but its not funny and shows what effort you put into this "article".
I pay money to read this crap about my team. Can I get some effort please?
It doesn't even recognize that the A's might be a darkhorse for Beltre, Werth or Crawford. They did go hard after Beltre. The free agents mentioned are old veterans that have little value and can be replaced easily.
No imagination, not thought. Give us something! Please!
Again, Ugh.
Vlad or Matsui hitting at the Coliseum half the time. Really?
You did not address back up catcher or Adam Rosales' role.
Further you glossed over Kurt Suzuki's poor performance at the plate and inability to throw out baserunners.
Why would you keep Kevin Kouzmanoff? What justification exists?
Joey Devine is due back and possibly makes Brad Ziegler trade bait and with Super Two status a likely scenario at some point.
BP needs to start filtering their content. This was beyond being a pointless exercise - the suggestions made actually would hurt the A's.
No mention of David Forst?
Why don't you use some of that available money, and make a big splash. Go after Adam Dunn. He belongs in the American League, and he would be the most talented power hitter the A's have had in a long time.
Why not suggest trading Barton and moving Jackson to 1B where he is leas of a defensive liability? Or trade Barton and Rajai Davis (who you did not mention) to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez?
I'm not really sure what they should do with Rajai. He went through some very bad stretches. He's also not as good defensively as you'd want him to be, especially in center where he seems to take a lot of bad routes and get poor jumps.
It's easy to say the A's should go after a big bat, but the fact of the matter is they probably aren't going to spend the money and players like Adam Dunn just won't want to play in Oakland anyway (see: Beltre last year). They'll probably give Jackson a shot (did just enough), maybe bring in a cheap Melky Cabrera type and put him on a short leash like they did with Jake Fox and if it doesn't work out, cut bait pretty fast.
The Big Bopper: TRAVIS HAFNER. You have a great medical staff- you can keep him healthy when his current club doesn't seem that interested. He is owed $26+ million over the next two years; try out whether Shapiro would welcome being relieved of, say, half of that. BUT: Keep Cust (he actually plays in the field). Sign Vlady if you must, but as part of a DH platoon. Set a ceiling for the combined cost: $12.0 million.
HEALTH RISKS: Your infield is fine from a talent perspective, but not from a health perspective. Thus you need to have some depth here, which you won't necessarily need for the outfield crew. Suggest going after Uribe or, if he gets too expensive, Mike Fontenot, who will not add to your offense much but appears comfortable playing multiple infield positions.
PITCHING: No need to change a thing, but look at every spare arm available in ST, and add selectively for relief depth.
As has been mentioned, Cust at DH isn't the position that needs addressing. The A's need one (or two) COFs, and, as a secondary priority, a 5th starter and a 3B. The A's gave up the fewest runs in the American League, but a lot of the reason for that lies with the defense.
I'd love to see the A's pursue Crawford or Werth, but barring the impossible, at least make serious considerations towards trading for a quality COF bat, and not just adding yet another retread veteran to the long list of hopeful has-beens the A's have signed in the past 5 years.