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Chat: Paul Sporer

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday July 15, 2014 1:00 PM ET chat session with Paul Sporer.

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Talk fantasy and pitching with Paul.

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon everyone! I'll be taking your fantasy and pitching related questions today! Let's get started!!

Ron (Texarkana): 1:1 offer, Baez for Springer. 15 team keeper. Who do you take?

Paul Sporer: Springer

AJ (Phoenix): I have some concerns over the Joey Votto injury/trends. His power has been trending down, and the injuries are a concern. I'm in a deep dynasty where he's part of my loaded offense which is playoff bound. What's the prognosis/expected return date? Buy/Sell/Hold?

Paul Sporer: If you're contending, you might want to sell, even at a low point. He's working without a lower half and I'm just not sure he gets healthy again in '14.

pmitchell60 (NOLA): Trade help: Give Billy Hamilton for Jason Kipnis and Adrian Gonzalez? 10 team 12 keeper standard league

Paul Sporer: I assume you're relatively set in steals, in which case this is a fine deal. Hamilton is obviously an intriguing keeper, too, but this seems like a move where you're contending so I support selling your promising asset for two who could really do some power damage for your offense

JoshC77 (Columbus, Ohio): Thoughts on Jose Abreu? He has been amazing in the first half and I was lucky enough to draft him. I can keep him for two more seasons (no players in our league can be rostered for more than three years without re-entering the draft). As amazing as he has been, I feel like he could be at his peak value. He is right at the age where players typically have their best seasons and I suspect that pitchers may begin to adjust to him in the second half. My team is foundering badly, but re-building via trade isn't always viable because we are only permitted 5 keepers (again, max of 4 years). My best case scenario is to acquire a player that I can keep for 2.5 years that still has room for growth. What level of player should one target (5x5 plus OPS and Holds)?

Paul Sporer: If you are in fact playing for next year, your best bet is to just keep him. I'm not sure there's a better keeper available to you, at least not MARKEDLY better where you'd HAVE to make the deal (like Profar for Taveras discussions in real life... might as well just keep the gold asset you have). If you were competing for this year, I could advocate a sell-high because you really can sell high on him, netting an absolute mint in return. But since you're competing for the future, just hold this golden goose. Sure, there'll be some down periods, but I don't see him tanking.

Damon (Louisville): What are the Rangers going to do when Profar gets healthy? It seems Odor can hold his own at the highest level and doesn't need more time in the minors. Do you think a trade or position change is most likely?

Paul Sporer: Let's get him healthy first. They can worry about all of that log-jammage in the offseason. Perhaps a shift to the OF for someone is in order. A trade is a likely route, but I wouldn't say it's the only or a must route.

Kendal (MN): Need ERA and WHIP in a 5x5 roto league. Go with Taijuan Walker or Dillon Gee? Lead in K's and W's

Paul Sporer: I stick with Taijuan. Upside to be excellent in the ratios, but even if he's not, he should be near Gee and his Ks/Ws still matter unless you just have insurmountable leads there which is unlikely.

Sara (Tacoma): My dynasty league uses deep rosters. I need to add some depth to my bullpen. Who are some non-closing RP that you like as good ratio guys, or who are future closers?

Paul Sporer: Really depends how deep. I assume the Betances' and W.Davises of the world are long gone. Boxberger, Clippard, Benoit, Watson, Diekman, W.Smith, Neshek, Z.Duke, Jepsen, and Tazawa

Brad (Houston): More power Yelich or Alcantara?

Paul Sporer: Yelich more raw, but worse stadium so they will likely be relatively close

allangustafson (Sun Diego): Boring old non-pitching MI question, but pushing for the championship this year despite my putrid situation. Deep 20 mixed standard 5 x5 league, which three would you start for the rest of the year: Alcanatra, Boegarts, Neil Walker, Hill, or Brad Miller?

Paul Sporer: The last three right now. Bogaerts struggling hard and Alcantara may be sent back (though if he's not, put him in for Hill right now).

jasemilw4 (Chicago): Brett Anderson, buy or sell ROS?

Paul Sporer: Been in full sell mode for a few years now.

cracker73 (Florida): What do you think of Despaigne? Do you think he will continue to pitch well in the Padres' rotation?

Paul Sporer: He's getting some of my attention, but I remain a skeptical and need to see more as he accumulates more work.

Dave (DC): Braun or Billy Hamilton, ROS?

Paul Sporer: Really needs-based overall, but I think I'll lean Hamilton right now as he's a higher impact with his SB/AVG and a surprising contribution of power when he was originally thought to be a zero there.

Greg (Kansas City): Standard league - ROS - d'Arnaud or Montero?

Paul Sporer: TdA if that's Jesus. Miguel if that's Miguel.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): I've seen Rajon Rondo's name in trade rumours. Any chance the Tigers pick him up at the deadline to close?

Paul Sporer: Definitely.

hamsterjockey (DC): Thoughts on Taijuan Walker the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: I think he'll be good. I'm a big fan. He obviously needs to stay healthy, but he's got solid upside

Shawnykid23 (CT): Jake Odorizzi- is he primed for a big 2nd half? Would you rather have him over guys like Yordano Ventura, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, etc?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily. He's already been on fire since May (3.14 ERA with 94 Ks in 77.3 IP). I think he will continue to be pretty solid (mid-to-high 3.00s) with an upside of just continuing what he's done the past two months (low-3.00s, major Ks)

Ace (PA): Is Phil Hughes proving that a good starting pitcher doesn't need a change-up?

Paul Sporer: A lot of pitchers live without a change and do so quite successfully. Hughes is solid and I think he will continue to be, even with the recent rash of meager starts

Shawnykid23 (CT): Will your Tigers trade for a closer before the deadline? If you think so, any idea who?

Paul Sporer: A closer? No, I think they'll rolling with Nathan. But they will almost certainly get an RP or two... perhaps even a return of Benoit

JobuNeedsARefill (The I): Chu think about Soler's recent health-driven splurge? Time for the 80 raw to come out and play?

Paul Sporer: I'm not sure it's 80-raw, but it's nice to see him raking early on!

Bill Masters (St. Louis): Can you give us 3 hitters and 3 pitchers you think will heat up a bit in the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: C.Santana, C.Davis, A.Jackson, Verlander, Cobb, Bailey

Max (Springfield): Will Heaney return to MLB and make an impact?

Paul Sporer: He'll return, but the impact will likely be limited. I'm a fan, especially long-term, but the youngsters are always a risk, so I lean against high-impact.

Chesty (New Bern,NC): I drafted bad.Both C.Davis and A.Craig have been killing me,.We have a one season 12Team H2H.There is time but I am close to dropping one or both.S.Pearce,C.Coghlan, CJCron,are available.Hr,RBI,Sb,Ave,Xbh,R.Thanks

Paul Sporer: I'd have no problem getting Pearce or Cron for Craig, but I wouldn't dump C.Davis

Joe (SC): Like Diekman over Giles for saves or just better ratios?

Paul Sporer: Both are fine. There are tons of similarly valued MRs... I just named a handful

RatedRookie (Atlanta): What kind of timeline and level of production do you see for Carlos Rodon?

Paul Sporer: Timeline should be relatively quick, but Matt Harveys of the world are very rare. I'd still bet on a bumpier road fantasy-wise before finally emerging.

Shawn (Cubicle): 2 hitters and 2 pitchers you think will have a big 2nd half (or at least significantly better than their 1st half)?

Paul Sporer: Check my 3 and 3 answer

Donald Loria (Milwaukee): For a dynasty league draft next year, I can reasonably add two top picks with some trades. I really liked Kolek and Rodon (in that order). When trying to acquire picks in dynasty, what's the best way to go about grabbing picks without destroying your current roster?

Paul Sporer: I go more for immediate returns, so I'm less-inclined to overpay for the newest draftees. If you're still contending, then I wouldn't focus much on acquiring those guys. If you aren't contending, I'd focus my attention on getting more established prospects. Now if this is just a free draft of the newest draftees, then by all means attack the upside arms you've outlined. Though I'd still ideally look for impact hitting ahead of arms.

Steve (NJ): What makes you optimistic about Verlander's 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: I just don't see a near-5.00 ERA pitcher.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Before the season, you were high on Porcello, and one of the reasons was Iglesias and the improved infield defense. How much do you think Jose's balsa shins have affected Porcello especially, but also the rest of the Tiger staff?

Paul Sporer: It's still been a greatly improved infield D so even without Iglesias, it's been an upgrade. Last year's SP BABIP was 5th-highest. This year, it's 17th.

Julio (SanAnto): DO you see any young guys that will be called up to the pen that could have a future as starters? Ala Iwakuma

Paul Sporer: That's hard to gauge. I don't think anyone is outwardly on that track where their call-up will immediately see them in the pen, but surely there are some guys who will take that route. Just too tough to pinpoint who it will be

Ace (PA): Torii Hunter, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton, do the Twins have a fetish for this type of player or what?

Paul Sporer: Athletic CFs? Who wouldn't? Though, the only real common link between these three is position, ethnicity, and a tie to Minnesota. Otherwise, they're vastly different skill-sets.

cracker73 (Florida): Many of the "experts" seem down on Henderson Alvarez, yet he continues to pitch well. What are your thoughts on him?

Paul Sporer: He doesn't miss any bats. That's always gonna be an issue. That much contact is hard to keep under control, but he plays in the right park for it. I've been among the skeptics and while I'm more open to using him on the cheap in daily, I'm still not terribly interested in season-long. The ERA and WHIP don't jive and it's the ERA that will likely go up before the WHIP comes down. His 2013 ERA (3.59) and 2014 WHIP (1.26) are a better match... which is still plenty useful

Nard Dog (I don't trust you, Phyllis!): What do you think Sean Manaea's ceiling is? His probability of reaching it?

Paul Sporer: It's high but he's a long way out. And his probability is scant (as it is for most arms). He could be a frontliner, but it's more dream than reality right now

Chesty (New Bern ,NC): Thanks Paul for the past help.I must drop a SS from A.Ramirez,JJHardy,D.Santana(when off DL).Hr,R,RBI,Ave,Sb,Xbh.One year league.

Paul Sporer: No problem! Cut Hardy and just ride Santana's hot streak (assuming it continues upon returning). If Santana fizzles, you can get Hardy or a Hardy-esque replacement off the wire

flashtheleather (under the pillow): Jesse Winker... Badler said he had the best swing from the Future's game. What is his hit tool like? Can he be a .300 25 HR guy in the bigs?

Paul Sporer: Not sure it's 25 HR poewr, but .300/15 would still be a stud in today's game.

Jonah (Redwood): In a deep dynasty league (20 teams, 1000 players owned (MLB & MiLB): I'm potentially a playoff team if I can get my offense together. I have Fielder on the DL, with pretty much a zero (Sean Rodriguez) manning 1B. What to do? If Fielder is healthy next season and get back to his slugging ways, we all win, but his is an injury we haven't seen great success with in other players that have and it. What does the dynasty manager do in this situation?

Paul Sporer: Since you're competing, you see if you can get a legitimate return on Fielder. Obviously you can't get what you would've four-five months ago, but you should be able to easily upgrade S.Rodriguez

leites (New York): What's the upside for Blake Treinen? Could he be a solid #3?

Paul Sporer: No a solid 3 is a damn fine pitcher. I think Treinen is more four-five material. Major leaguer, but not high-impact.

kyle (michigan): Is Rodon a super 2 victim next year or do we wait longer to see him than that?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to know at this point to be honest. We don't really know in-season with guys who have pro success under their belts, so someone yet to pitch as a pro is a dart throw.

Jake (Buffalo Grove): If you are starting a franchise today would you take Bryant or Baez?

Paul Sporer: Bryant

Dan (Toronto): Struggling to figure out what to do with Corey Dickerson given the looming platoon possibilities. Keep him over Yelich or Hosmer (5x5 OBP)?

Paul Sporer: Even if he's platooned, it's strong side so that will still be substantial PA. I can't really cut any of those three, but I'd chop Hosmer before the others at this point.

Joe Sparma (Tomball): I have Joey Votto as a 6th round keeper (for perpetuity) in a 5 keeper points format. Enviable position but not this year. I am a fringe playoff team this season and don't want to give away the future but I'm wondering if Altuve (potential 5th rd keeper) and Adrian Gonzalez (not keepable) is a decent return for Votto and W Rosario? Keeping Altuve not ideal since Cano (2nd rd) is one of my other keepers so one would always be used at utility. Thanks Paul.

Paul Sporer: That's a pretty strong return given Votto's current state. I trust that all of Altuve's excellence translates nicely in your format. Tough to deal Votto at a low point, but if you're contending, this is a strong move to ensure you continue to contend.

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Standard 5x5 NL-only keeper league - I have to drop one of Cain, Haren, or Joe Kelly. I'm leaning towards Kelly due to his lack of strikeouts. Do you concur?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I mean if you have to cut one, it's Kelly.

Steve (Los Angeles): Hey Paul, I'm in a 10 team dynasty where we redraft every 3 years and keep 7. Next year is a redraft and I'm unsure about keeping Teheran, Altuve, or aroldis chapman as my #7. I've been offered taveras for Altuve also, so I guess taveras is in the mix as well. Thoughts? Who would you keep? (We also do weekly lineup changes and I have darvish and strasburg as keepers)

Paul Sporer: I love Teheran, but Altuve is the easy keep between those three and I'd keep him over Taveras right now. If you're going to keep two starters, then you gotta go hitter with your other guy

DanDaMan (Sea Cliff): Hey Paul, I'd appreciate your input on my situation: currently in 4th place and looking to trade one of my OF's to fill need. I can play 4 of them (5 if I use one to DH), but only keep 3 of them for next year. With that in mind, who would you look to keep and who would you look to trade out of the following: Billy Hamilton, CarGo, JUpton, Braun, Heyward (who probably doesn't have much of a market for) and Nelson Cruz? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Cruz, Hamilton, Upton are the musts. If Heyward doesn't have a market, then start selling Cargo and Braun.

frank (stl): is lance lynn finally going to finish the season strong? how has he looked to you this year?

Paul Sporer: Similarly up-and-down. He'll run off four or five gems and then drop a dud. So he's still usually a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA who can look amazing at times. I'm a fan, but I'm not sure we're getting a sub-3.00 ERA anytime soon

Ace (PA): When do you imagine Alex Meyer will be called upon?

Paul Sporer: I think he could get the call at any point, even if only for a look, but he should at least be up in September.

Dave (DC): What's your favorite fantasy league format?

Paul Sporer: A 15-team mixer or 10-team only league 5x5 roto... the standards really.

jabloom (Ontario): 12 team H2H Dynasty league - One-for-One offer: Strasburg for Bautista. Who do you take?

Paul Sporer: All else equal, the hitter

Dave (DC): Can you spearhead some sort of Kickstarter campaign to get Jonah Keri to stop writing about promising pitchers? Also, what do you see out of Kluber for the second half-- continued goodness or are there signs of a few bumps to come?

Paul Sporer: Hahaha. I think that's gaining steam. I think Kluber will continue to excel. He could be even better than the first half.

Hangin on (D.C.): In a 5x5 (with obp) in which I have a big lead in steals, should I drop Jean Segura for Alexei Ramirez or Jhonny Peralta? I was wondering this before his tragedy, and now I wonder if he will even be able to come back any time soon. Hopefully he and his family can find a way to get through this.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, it's just horrific what happened to Segura and his family. Awkwardly shifting to the fantasy angle, I'd go for Peralta if you're looking for non-speed offense.

Dave (DC): Is Choo a good buy-low opportunity or a player to stay away from?

Paul Sporer: I'm not sure how low you can buy. Jonah Keri just asked for Garrett Richards from me for him. I'm not even saying that's a bad offer or anything, just that it's not a buy-low. I'm a diehard Choo fan, but I'd really only buy-low or stayaway. So I'll probably try to counter Jonah's offer.

maxthom91 (NYC): Tanaka for J Fernandez in dynasty? Who says no?

Paul Sporer: Probably Fernandez owner since he's closer to getting his guy back and we're not even sure if Tanaka will have to get TJS yet

Jake (Chicago): Looking to acquire Alcantara or Odor, who do you think develops more power?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, about the same. I think it's really splitting hairs to try and pinpoint who will have more between them.

BomboRiviera (Rhangodesia): How much would you value Lester in a keeper (10 teams), especially given the uncertainty around where he'll play next year? Maybe the easier question is where you think he'll rank among SPs next year.

Paul Sporer: I don't think he'll have huge changes in his rank. Going to the NL would be nice, though. I'm generally a little leery of first year huge contract guys. I haven't thoroughly studied it, but anecdotally, they don't seem to fare well in that first year.

Jocko (Shorewood): Gausman or Odorizzi in 2015?

Paul Sporer: Gausman for me. But Odorizzi is impressing me with his big K potential. I didn't expect this.

The Dude (Office): Is James Shields back to the James Shields of old? 2 really nice starts in a row. I know 1 was TB, but the other was Det.

Paul Sporer: Certainly looks better in these last 2, but it was a 12-start run of nearly 5.00 ERA (100 H in 77 IP, too). I don't think we're clearly out of the woods and back to ace-level, but I'm still holding firm with Shields.

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Will Nate Eovaldi ever develop a changeup (or some other offering) to retire left-handed hitters?

Paul Sporer: I believe so, yes. The curve is working this year v. LHB and the slider worked last year, but the changeup has been unimpressive in each season. I think we'll either see steps forward with the change or a mix of the breaking balls that does the job

jabloom (Toronto): Hi Paul. 12 team H2H 10x10 dynasty league (avg/ops league). We keep forever. I have an offer where I trade my Strasburg for his Bautista. I know bats are safer than arms in dynasties but who would you prefer?

Paul Sporer: I think this one was covered a little bit ago. I'd go Bautista.

Julio (SanAnto): Good morning. DO you have rest of season fantasy SP ranks posted somewhere? I looked on painttheblack.com but did not see any. Always look forward to your analysis.

Paul Sporer: I don't have a set ranking available anywhere at present

maxthom (NYC): Tanaka for Jose Fernandez? Who says no?

Paul Sporer: Previously covered

MickeyRivers (NY): How would you rank the Astros starting pitchers?

Paul Sporer: McHugh, Keuchel, Peacock, and Cosart. That's all I'd touch. McHugh has to get the edge with Keuchel's injury right now, but if Keuchel is healthy, he's obviously the top guy

maxpowers (chicago): Hamilton for Baez in a dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Hamilton

Chesty (New Bern,NC): Great chat today,plenty of information.3top picks are up and playing (Polanco,Stringer,Taveras)do you trust them the rest of the year.

Paul Sporer: I definitely trust the first two, but let's see something from Taveras. Additionally, the Cards have a logjam and his return to AAA or just sporadic MLB playing time could be a solution. Polanco is raking so he's gonna play and Houston has no reason not to play Springer daily.

Charles (Los Angeles ): I am getting tired of owning Longoria this year. Would it be crazy to trade him for Machado in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn't do that. I know Longoria hasn't killed it, but he's not killing you, either. And I think he could catch fire and have a big second half

DJ (Arlington ): Thanks for the insights, these chats are the best!! With regard to Rougned Odor, how do you evaluate his performance and upside given his relative youth? Should I be disappointed by his modest production or enthused that he's holding his own at an extremely young age (for MLB)??

Paul Sporer: Thanks for the compliments! I'd lean closer to being pleased that he's 20 and not THOROUGHLY OVERMATCHED. I tend to be pretty conservative on expectations of rookies so I wasn't expecting him to set the league on fire. Those stories are still great, but very much the exception and not the rule even with more and more young guys excelling immediately. It still often takes some time.

Gerson (Amsterdam): What do you think of De Grom? He's been good lately. I've read that he's among the best swing and miss pitchers in the league. Jimmy Nelson, De Grom, Stroman and Gausman. Can you rank them? Thanks and you always have great advice. Keep up the good work. Gerson. Holland.

Paul Sporer: He's been very impressive of late. He's in the top 20 for Swinging Strike Percentage, but I'm still a bit skeptical. The K surge has come against ATL, ATL, MIA, MIA, and PHI. Sure, he'll keep facing those teams in his division, but I'm not sure this new level is sustainable against all comers.

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Is Dylan Bundy in Baltimore's plans this year? Starting or in the pen?

Paul Sporer: I could see it, but only with continued sparkling performance and in the high minors instead of low minors. They could definitely use him in the rotation as they still lack high impact starters

Kevin (NYC): Hey Paul, What are your thoughts on Jacob deGrom? Do you think he can sustain this level of success?

Paul Sporer: See previous deGrom answer

Rick (WV): Do you know anything about Yasmany Tomas? Is he a prospect like Jorge Soler or is he more MLB ready like Cespedas/Puig?

Paul Sporer: I do not know anything about him right now. Sorry.

BomboRiviera (Rhangodesia): On the MiLB side, do you prefer Norris or Berrios?

Paul Sporer: Berrios! Doug and I have been big fans for a while.

Lorenzo (Jacksonville): Is Dustin Pedroia and good comp for Rougned Odor or is that more on the optimistic side? Both play with a lot of intensity, power in the 15-20 HR range, 35-40 doubles, hit between 280 - .300? Pedroia may strikeout less, but, to me, those seem like reasonable numbers for Odor.

Paul Sporer: Giving anyone that comp would be VERY optimistic. Probably more Omar Infante, but perfect world stuff would be the Pedroia stuff

John (Boston): Hey Paul,my friend offered me Wil Myers for either Kipnis or Wong.....would you give up one of these players for Myers????thanks

Paul Sporer: I could see it for Kipnis, but I'd probably just hold Myers unless I desperately needed someone playing now

Brad (Greenville, NC): I've been offered Stanton and Darvish for Trout in a 12 keeper h2h league? Really fair offer that's hard to turn down, but hard consider giving up Trout for anything.

Paul Sporer: Super hard to trade Trout, but that's a great offer

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Are there any NL players in the upper minors that can make an impact for the rest of this season?

Paul Sporer: Bryant, Syndergaard, Baez, Pederson

Fbp (San diego): What do you see as Kingham's prospects. Any chance he will be better than a number 3?

Paul Sporer: Unlikely he'll be better than a 3. Becoming a 3 would be a pretty big success, though

Hangin On (D.C.): In a 5x5 (with obp) in which I have a big lead in steals, should I drop Jean Segura for Alexei Ramirez or Jhonny Peralta? I was wondering this before his tragedy, and now I wonder if he will even be able to come back any time soon. Hopefully he and his family can find a way to get through this.

Paul Sporer: I think this was a double question

Steve (Chicago): What are your thoughts on Avi Garcia in a dynasty league? A good guy to target and possibly buy low for 2015?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I'd be willing to buy low for sure. I was among those who really liked him coming into the season

Eric (Portland): Bradley Zimmer, Michael Conforto, or Derek Fisher. Who and in what order do you take for fantasy purposes?

Paul Sporer: I unfortunately don't have much knowledge of all three. I know most about Zimmer, but that doesn't automatically make him the best of that bunch.

Max (NYC): Thoughts on Derek Holland? Chance to contribute this year and down the line?

Paul Sporer: I like that it's not an arm injury. I could definitely see him contributing. I'd scoop him in just about any format where I had a DL spot available

Colin (Chicago): Can you rank these OFs in a 10 team H2H dynasty: JD Martinez, Gardner, Marte, Kiermaier. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Gardner, Martinez, Marte, and Kiermaier

John Carter / scoresheetwiz (sunny muggy Toronto): Why don't you ask me my advice on a Scoresheet question?

Paul Sporer: I don't know? My SS team is 46-48, 2 games outta first. Not bad for an inherited team without much beyond Kinsler, Anibal, and Kazmir (and the OAK catching duo)... so basically Tigers and A's.

Kevin (KC): Are you sold on the development of Danny Duffy??

Paul Sporer: I think we've seen some, but not commensurate with his ERA. I actually think there's more growth to come, though probably more in 2015. I'd bet on a mid to high-3.00s ERA the rest of the way.

kimi (Brooklyn): Chris Coghlin.... worth a flyer?

Paul Sporer: Ehh... in NL onlys or deep mixers, where's probably owned anyway. Can he really hit lefties now? I doubt it based on this tiny sample. I'm not really sold.

Metsfaithful5 (Syracuse): Your thoughts on Jacob deGrom?

Paul Sporer: See earlier mentions

frank (brooklyn): rate these SP rest of way: gray, lynn, weaver, latos, richards, arrieta, eovaldi in 17 team mixed...who do you love/who do you hate?

Paul Sporer: I think Weaver and Eovaldi are the outcasts of the group. Gray, Lynn, Latos, Richards, and Arrieta (listed as you wrote them) aren't too far from one another to be honest. If I'm picking only one, it'd probably still be Latos, who I rated highest at the start of the season. I think he will have a big second half (with skills to match).

Launchme (Austin, TX): Kris Bryant is available in our 14 team 5 keeper league, but the fact he may not see the Show till 2015, and could lose his 3B eligibility when he does, makes me hesitate. Would Bryant in the 21st round be a better keeper than any of my current 4? Votto- 6 Puig-18 Desmond-20 Jose Fernandez-22 All can be kept indefinitely in rounds orig drafted per lg rules.

Paul Sporer: No, he's not a better keeper than any of those four at those costs. I love his upside, but it's just potential at this point. All four of your others have shown it. And Fernandez's scant cost offsets the awfulness of his getting TJ.

Cole (PA): You worried about Gerritt Cole at all? Seems to be racking up injuries, and also just doesn't seem to be taking that extra step. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Injuries seem connected so I'm not really worried about a collection of injuries or anything. He just crossed the 200 IP threshold and his numbers are excellent after what has essentially been his first full season. I thought we could see a Harvey-esque leap from him, but it hasn't happened, but I certainly don't see him as a failing to progress or anything. Still quite high on him long-term.

Damon (Louisville): Thanks so much for the chat! Really appreciate it.

Paul Sporer: No problem! Thanks for coming!

ChoppertoChipper (Edmonton): Is Trevor Cahill worth picking up on a pitching-starved team in a 20 team HTH mixed?

Paul Sporer: I was a big fan back in the day. I could see him having some RP value in Towers.

Cory (LA): Paul, what is your strategy with minor league keepers? Do you keep more players closer to the majors who may help this year or longer term, maybe higher upside guys?

Paul Sporer: I prefer proximity, but above that, I actually deal minor leaguers for major league help. If I'm not contending, I try to consolidate my hot blue chip prospects for MLB talent that can be kept cheaply.

teddy (chicago): Kyle Zimmer was supposed to "resume" throwing (as though he'd actually started at some point) yesterday. Beyond velo, how can us mere mortals figure out whether he's really broken?

Paul Sporer: Just try to stay on top of the news via the various outlets (BP, Twitter, etc...) Short of actually seeing him, you have to rely on the news from those who are seeing him.

Graham (Richmond, VA): I'm in a 12 team keeper league. Each team gets to keep 7 guys. I have a lot of prospects including Buxton, Correa, Sano, Giolito, Bundy, Russell, and Walker. The "problem" is I also have some current big league studs in Sale, Harper, and J.Upton. Not sure which combo of big league/prospects to keep. Any suggestions?

Paul Sporer: I'd really focus on keeping the MLBers. I'd be trying to package those guys for young, keepable talent. Several of those guys are a long way from contributing at the big league level and especially at a level worth a top 7 pick in a 12-teamer. They are great names to have, but they don't have quite the value that they do in only leagues or dynasty leagues, which is probably why you have so many of them.

aaronayoung (DC): Ozuna (next 3.5 years at 1 dollar, 260 total) for Raimel Tapia (chance to eventually keep him - when he arrives - at 1, 4, 7, 10, 10, 10, 10 dollars). Which side do you take?

Paul Sporer: Ozuna. Tapia is a dream right now. A nice dream, but SO far from delivering.

norm (NYC): Any chance Salazar returns soon? Can't imagine TJ House lasts the whole year.

Paul Sporer: I can see him returning and being better that his mid-5.00s effort earlier on, but I'm not sure he'll be much better than a low-4.00s guy right now

Derek (Winnipeg): Hey Paul, in a deep keeper league, I'm looking to trade one of my waiver claims for this year (keepable for next year) for some hitting, how would you rank the following as the pitcher to trade first: McHugh, Hammel, Roark

Paul Sporer: Hammel, Roark, McHugh in terms of what you'll get back. Roark and McHugh are likely not believed in by many and thus you wouldn't get a return commensurate with what they're giving you now. Hammel has shown more and now he's on Oakland which raises his stock.

Hunter (Charleston): Will Corey Dickerson ever be a GUY?

Paul Sporer: That's a vague term. I thought it was usually assigned to prospects to determine whether or not they'll stick and be real MLBers in which case I'd say yes. But if you're using it to mean whether or not he'll be a STAR, I'm not sure on that. The stadium helps for sure, but it's too early to tell, so I'd lean no. He wasn't a huge prospect. I liked him this year (paid $14 in NL only and ignored Blackmon until he got going in April), but I was buying the PT and stadium with solid skills (it was later in the auction which popped his price up a few bucks and I was flush).

Hoover (Indy): Paul I value your baseball opinions. Thanks for the great chat. Please rank the following 3 hitters: Mesoraco, Dickerson, JD Martinez in terms of ROS value in a points format. And do any of them rival Ian Desmond as a potential late round dirt cheap keeper?

Paul Sporer: I think you just ranked em. I was slow to come around on Meso, but he looks incredible. I'd still lean Desmond (though I don't know your scoring system) if only for his SS-elig.

John (Boston): Paul,sorry,would you trade Wil Myers for Kolton Wong???

Paul Sporer: Nope

Chesty (New Bern ,NC): Thanks for the marathon session.How would you rank Bauer,Miley,Huchinson,Vogelsong,Skaggs going forward.W,whip,era,k, k/9.Semper Fi

Paul Sporer: No prob. Miley, Hutch, Skaggs, Vogey, and Bauer ... not a ton of separation between 'em, though.

John (CT): Odds of Tanaka returning this season?

Paul Sporer: Sliiiim

Billy (Houston): Do you think Tropeano gets called up this year ?

Paul Sporer: Substantial, but possibly just a Sept. call-up. Would be nice to see him get a look soon-ish, though, so he can get some real time. That said, there is no one to OBVIOUSLY eliminate from the rotation.

wka (San Diego): Fantasy: Kingham or AJ Cole?

Paul Sporer: Cole

John (Ny): Ceiling and floor for Joe Ross?

Paul Sporer: Ceiling of his brother. Floor of a useful reliever. (This floor assumes he makes it to the majors... obviously the real floor for any arm to completely fizzle out)

Brett (New Jersey): Paul, who would you rate as the top 5 starting pitchers from this June's draft for dynasty league purposes next March?

Paul Sporer: Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Touissant, and Hoffman (I know he's got the TJ, but I still like him)... admittedly, I don't have a ton of knowledge of these guys, though, especially the high schoolers

Bob (Phoenix): Jake Lamb or Brandon Drury the next eB in Arizona ?

Paul Sporer: Lamb, let's bet on the closer guy. Neither has a MAJOR ceiling.

Paul Sporer: Hey, we got to every question! Thank you all for coming out. Hopefully you enjoyed this chat!


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