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November 18, 2009

Prospectus Today

Minor League Free Agents

by Joe Sheehan

One way to fill holes on a major league roster extremely cheaply is to find good values among minor league free agents. These aren't prospects, but players who are right around their career peaks, some even in their early thirties, who you pick up to fix an immediate problem for $400,000, and who if they work out can be an inexpensive three-year solution. The process of moving players from the minors to the majors is fairly efficient, but it isn't a perfect market, and mistakes and misevaluations are made. A strong front office is aggressive in tendering non-roster invitations to this pool of players; on the basis of a return on investment, the minor league free-agent pool is much more attractive than the major league one in general, and this winter's in particular.

One thing I have to say is that perusing the list of availables is mildly depressing. You just assume that players you haven't heard from in a while have moved on to better things, usually not defined as "getting 150 at-bats for a Double-A team at age 35." No one needs to explain to me the hold baseball can have on people, but at some point the lifestyle of a non-prospect should be enough to move you into a new career.

The following are some of the players who caught my eye on this year's list, guys who I think could either help a team next season or who are interesting for another reason. Kevin Goldstein helped out with his take on some of the players as well. This isn't a "best" list, so if someone you think is interesting isn't mentioned, throw him into the comments.

Ruben Gotay hit .295/.351/.421 as a 24 year old for the Mets in 2007, getting 36 starts and appearing primarily as an early-inning pinch-hitter. He got caught in a roster crunch the next spring, was let go and then claimed off waivers by the Braves, a move that killed any career momentum he had. Despite spending almost the entire season on the roster, Gotay started just nine times, and it's no surprise he hit just .235/.322/.343. Gotay had shown decent plate discipline through '08, walking in about seven percent of his MLB plate appearances, and about 10 percent of the time during his days in the minors. In '09, he landed in the Diamondbacks' system and made a startling change, drawing 101 unintentional walks in 479 PA without any uptick in his strikeout rate or loss of performance on contact. His .429 OBP was remarkable not just for its own sake, but for the fact that the D'backs, desperate for OBP, never called upon Gotay for even a bench role.

Gotay turns 27 on Christmas Day, and while his defense isn't anything special—he's below-average at second base and a nightmare at third—a player who draws 101 walks at Triple-A while sustaining the rest of his game at age 26 is a fascinating player. There's a comp here to Felipe Lopez, who wandered around the league for a while before becoming a credible leadoff hitter with some defensive issues. Gotay doesn't have that kind of speed, but when you look at how many teams get nothing from second base, Gotay looks like he should have many, many suitors. He'd be a better player than Freddy Sanchez, just to name one, given comparable playing time. Best fits: Astros, Cubs, Tigers.