<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Chase Utley
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Second Base
Bats L
Age 30
6' 1"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
2B 3 Chase Utley 90 221 .296 43 11 36 5 .382 .532 17.7
1   2009 Total 90 221 .296 43 11 36 5 .382 .532 17.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 PHI MLB 739 131 40 4 32 102 63 132 15 4 6.1 .309 .379 .527 .185 .302 .373 .517 .301 65.9 152-2B 10 7.3
2007 REA AA 11 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0.0 .100 .182 .100 -.812 .100 .182 .100 .000 -2.3 -0.2
2007 PHI MLB 613 104 48 5 22 103 50 89 9 1 3.1 .332 .410 .566 .346 .330 .409 .575 .330 70.5 130-2B 14 8.8
2008 PHI MLB 707 113 41 4 33 104 64 104 14 2 1.2 .292 .380 .535 .226 .292 .378 .550 .311 63.7 156-2B 19 9.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:28 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 658 118 42 3 32 109 69 92 10 3 1.9 .319 .403 .576 .338 .319 .403 .584 .328 78.1 153-2B 7 8.9
75o 641 109 40 3 30 102 66 92 10 3 1.9 .311 .394 .558 .293 .312 .395 .566 .321 69.5 150-2B 6 8.1
60o 622 100 38 3 28 96 63 92 9 3 1.8 .303 .385 .539 .244 .303 .385 .547 .313 60.2 145-2B 6 7.2
50o 610 94 36 3 27 91 61 92 9 3 1.7 .297 .378 .525 .210 .297 .379 .533 .308 54.2 143-2B 5 6.6
40o 593 87 34 3 25 85 58 91 9 3 1.7 .289 .370 .509 .168 .290 .370 .517 .301 46.9 139-2B 5 5.9
25o 566 76 31 2 22 76 54 90 8 2 1.5 .277 .356 .483 .100 .278 .357 .490 .289 35.8 133-2B 4 4.8
10o 532 64 28 2 18 66 48 88 7 2 1.4 .263 .340 .450 .016 .263 .340 .457 .274 23.1 125-2B 4 3.5
Weighted Mean 651 104 38 3 28 97 65 98 10 3 1.7 .296 .377 .524 .206 .296 .378 .532 .306 56.3 152-2B 6 6.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

9%

43%

21%

6%

0.86

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 651 104 38 3 28 97 65 98 10 3 1.7 .296 .377 .524 .206 .296 .378 .532 .306 56.3 152-2B 6 6.6
2010 (age 31) 629 96 37 2 26 91 62 94 10 2 1.7 .289 .372 .509 .149 .285 .367 .510 .300 45.0 147-2B 7 5.9
2011 (age 32) 628 94 34 2 26 90 63 93 8 2 1.6 .286 .370 .501 .133 .282 .365 .501 .297 39.8 147-2B 4 5.0
2012 (age 33) 532 70 29 2 20 74 51 78 6 2 1.5 .281 .362 .481 .089 .277 .357 .481 .289 30.0 125-2B 3 3.9
2013 (age 34) 496 65 27 2 20 70 46 73 6 1 1.3 .285 .366 .491 .112 .281 .361 .492 .293 27.6 117-2B 1 3.3
2014 (age 35) 456 57 25 2 17 65 44 67 5 1 1.1 .284 .364 .482 .097 .280 .359 .482 .290 19.9 108-2B 0 2.3
2015 (age 36) 485 63 26 2 19 71 48 74 5 1 1.0 .279 .369 .485 .104 .276 .364 .485 .294 18.3 115-2B 1 2.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .275 .359 .490
vs RHP .305 .389 .568
Split -.031 -.029 -.077
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 38.2 6.0 6.6 $21,000,000 60.8 80.5
2010 33.2 7.0 5.9 $17,775,000 49.8 68.3
2011 30.7 4.0 5.0 $15,500,000 42.1 55.8
2012 20.6 3.0 3.9 $12,000,000 32.4 41.5
2013 21.9 1.0 3.3 $10,575,000 27.5 36.0
2014 18.4 0.0 2.3 $7,375,000 19.2 24.4
2015 21.4 1.0 2.2 $7,525,000 18.3 23.7
Peak 27.1 $70,700,000 231.8 306.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .321 .308 .289 .306
2010 .321 .296 .281 .300
2011 .316 .293 .275 .297
2012 .309 .291 .268 .289
2013 .311 .288 .268 .293
2014 .315 .291 .269 .290
2015 .318 .293 .268 .294


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 6% 0% 9%
2010 11% 0% 11%
2011 17% 4% 8%
2012 23% 9% 3%
2013 38% 12% 4%
2014 54% 30% 3%
2015 56% 44% 1%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

49

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chris Sabo 1992 43 11 Rusty Greer 1999 32
2 Leon Wagner 1964 42 12 Bill White 1964 31
3 Rafael Palmeiro 1995 40 13 Ryne Sandberg 1990 31
4 Ken Boyer 1961 39 14 Bobby Murcer 1976 31
5 Will Clark 1994 38 15 Ben Oglivie 1979 31
6 Cecil Cooper 1980 38 16 Lou Whitaker 1987 31
7 Don Money 1977 34 17 Billy Williams 1968 30
8 Nomar Garciaparra 2004 34 18 John Valentin 1997 29
9 Jim Northrup 1970 33 19 Gil McDougald 1958 29
10 George Brett 1983 32 20 Wally Joyner 1992 29

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The reason that Chase Utley is even cooler than you think: in his first major league exposure, 439 plate appearances split over the 2003 and 2004 seasons, he batted .257/.313/.436, drawing just 25 unintentional walks. That's a pace for about 40 walks in a 700-plate appearance season. His minor league rates were a little better, but with a discount applied for the greater difficulties of major league pitching, it was safe to conclude, yes, that's all there is. Almost magically, Utley became more selective, seeing more pitches per plate appearance and upping his walk rate. In 2004 he hit .200 against lefties, in 2005 he hit .219. Again, he got better, hitting over .300 against them in both '06 and '07. This is the rare player who actually grew on the job. The only blemish on his season was a month missed after a John Lannan pitch broke his hand. He should be an MVP candidate again in 2008.

2007

In our 2006 edition, we used this space to talk about how Utley needed to be given a chance hit against left-handers in order to learn how to hit them. The previous season had been the first when he was allowed to play regularly against lefties, and we weren`t worried that he only hit .219 against them; it was a learning experience. Utley proved to be a good student, hitting .301 off of them last year and filling in the last hole in his game. He didn`t have quite the same power against them as he did against right-handers, which explains the slight drop in his slugging average, but you can safely buckle up and enjoy several seasons` worth of stardom from here on out. The inheritor of Mark Grace`s slow white guy/smart baserunner mantle, you won`t see him make many mistakes as far as the chances he takes.

2006

In his breakout season, Utley improved his hitting against lefties and swiped 16 bases in 19 tries. While his .219 BA will still cause some to write that he can`t cope with southpaws, his .469 slugging percentage, seven homers, and 25 walks in 125 ABs show he`s learned enough to be dangerous against them. The Phils should never have benched Utley against lefties on the presumption he couldn`t hit them. The best way to ensure that a young left-handed hitter won`t be an everyday player is to prevent him from getting the experience he needs to learn to hit southpaws. The team had both Placido Polanco and David Bell on the roster--Bell cost so much that they had to play him, Polanco was too good to not play, and Ed Wade was too stubborn to make a trade if he couldn`t hornswoggle someone else. As a result, only 57 of Utley`s 403 ABs in 2003-04 were versus left-handers.

2005

The Phillies are believers in Utley, citing his improved defense at second base and the ungodly number of RBI that he accumulated in the big leagues (57 in 267 at-bats, a rate that exceeded Thome's). We're believers too, though we could care less about the RBI and would like to see Utley refine his pitch selection. Utley is not going to be a star, but second base is a thin position and his extra-base power should provide the Phillies with a competitive advantage. Polanco's unexpected return might seem to cripple Utley's fantasy value, but it's not the disaster that it may seem; Utley should still get the lion's share of at bats against right-handed pitchers, and he's posted a pretty big platoon split in his brief time in the bigs.

1996


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.