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July 15, 2009

Second-Half Prescriptions

AL

by Baseball Prospectus

AL East—Steven Goldman

Boston Red Sox: The Sox have resources they’ve not yet availed themselves Clay Buchholz has excelled at Triple-A Pawtucket this year while the big-league club has seen Daisuke Matsuzaka struggle to get his ERA below 8.00 and rehabilitate 42-year-old John Smoltz. Buchholz is coming up on a temporary basis after the break, but if the Sox gave him more rope they might find they have less need to heal up those struggling veterans; alternatively, promoting Buchholz could give them the flexibility to deal Brad Penny, perhaps to the Brewers. Fine-tuning might include acquiring a catch-and-throw reserve backstop; both Jason Varitek and George Kottaras have thrown out fewer than 20% of attempting basestealers, a bad weakness to have when you’re in the same division as Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Brett Gardner.

New York Yankees: The current AL Wild Card leaders have endured great disappointment from their starting rotation. Their quality start percentage of 43% ranks 12^th in the league, just ahead of Cleveland’s. Only robust hitting and an improving bullpen has allowed them to win with consistency, but not against good teams like the Red Sox (0-8), Rays (4-4), and Angels (2-4). One obvious solution, putting Phil Hughes into the rotation is complicated by the fact that Hughes has been the team’s most effective late-inning option in front of Mariano Rivera (opposing hitters are batting .115/.182/.197 when he relieves). They would be best advised to move him to starting and trade for another bullpen arm, which would probably be less costly than getting into the Roy Halladay gold rush. As is, Yankees outfield production is light compared to that in Boston and Tampa. Johnny Damon is a home-field phenomenon, the Gardner/Melky Cabrera center-field tandem has been adequate but unspectacular, and Nick Swisher has hit .208/.333/.365 since April. Adding a bat might seem redundant, but if the Yankees can’t pitch outpitch the competition, they just might batter them into submission.

Tampa Bay Rays: Much of what ails the Rays might be cured by waiting—for Dioner Navarro and Pat Burrell to rediscover how to hit; for B.J. Upton to continue what he started in June (.324/.395/.562 with 10 doubles, five home runs, and 14 stolen bases); for Scott Kazmir to find post-injury consistency, for Jeff Niemann to do better than a quality start once every three times out; for David Price to settle into the rotation. That said, Dr. BP never advises complacency, and surprisingly productive players as Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, and Gabe Gross should cool off. Possible internal improvements include outfielder Matt Joyce (.281/.380/.502 at Durham) and recently-promoted backstop John Jaso, who should be able to post a .350 OBP (Navarro is almost 100 points below that). With their depth in starting pitching—including Durham’s Wade Davis—the Rays’ internal options for their starting rotation are likely better than anyone they could acquire short of Halladay. They could do themselves a favor by adding a reliever; the Rays have underplayed their projected won-lost record by seven wins, in part because of shaky pen.

Toronto Blue Jays: After sweeping the Phillies, the Jays went into a swoon, winning just seven of their last 22 games before the break, knocking them under .500 for the season. Pitching was reasonably solid during this stretch (4.4 runs allowed per game), but the offense quit, batting .247/.307/.394 and fulfilling predictions that Jays batters had overachieved early on. The outfield is a suppurating wound burdened by two lengthy and expensive contracts in Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The Jays lack the firepower to get back into the AL East race, so dealing is the right course, and not just Halladay, but other Jays who won’t be around to be part of the team’s next contender, including Scott Rolen and imminent free agent Marco Scutaro.