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Joe Mauer
Minnesota Twins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 26
6' 5"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Twins Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 3 Joe Mauer 70 177 .326 34 7 32 1 .412 .499 19.2
DH 5 Joe Mauer 15 35 .326 34 7 32 1 .412 .499 19.2
2   2009 Total 85 212 .326 34 7 32 1 .412 .499 19.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 MIN MLB 608 86 36 4 13 84 79 54 8 3 1.4 .347 .429 .507 .250 .329 .421 .490 .316 67.4 119-C 6 7.1
2007 MIN MLB 471 62 27 3 7 60 57 51 7 1 0.7 .293 .382 .426 .078 .288 .382 .434 .288 31.1 88-C 8 4.3
2008 MIN MLB 633 98 31 4 9 85 84 50 1 1 4.1 .328 .413 .451 .229 .334 .423 .468 .314 57.1 134-C 5 7.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:57 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 665 118 39 5 14 79 83 60 7 2 0.2 .337 .422 .496 .311 .340 .427 .520 .329 75.2 155-C 4 9.7
75o 620 97 34 4 11 69 74 58 6 2 0.2 .320 .402 .462 .216 .323 .408 .484 .312 56.3 145-C 4 7.9
60o 597 87 32 4 10 65 69 57 6 2 0.2 .311 .392 .444 .167 .314 .398 .466 .304 47.4 140-C 4 7.1
50o 579 80 30 4 9 61 66 56 5 2 0.2 .305 .385 .432 .132 .307 .391 .452 .298 41.2 136-C 4 6.5
40o 564 74 29 3 8 58 63 56 5 1 0.2 .299 .379 .421 .102 .302 .384 .441 .292 36.1 132-C 4 6.0
25o 535 64 26 3 7 53 58 54 4 1 0.1 .289 .367 .400 .043 .291 .372 .419 .281 26.9 126-C 3 5.1
10o 492 52 22 3 5 46 51 51 4 1 0.1 .274 .350 .370 -.038 .276 .355 .388 .266 15.3 116-C 3 3.8
Weighted Mean 612 88 32 4 10 65 70 59 6 2 0.2 .307 .388 .436 .124 .309 .393 .457 .298 41.4 143-C 3 6.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

8%

35%

25%

7%

0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 26) 612 88 32 4 10 65 70 59 6 2 0.2 .307 .388 .436 .124 .309 .393 .457 .298 41.4 143-C 3 6.3
2010 (age 27) 618 87 32 4 9 63 71 59 5 1 0.3 .301 .382 .426 .133 .307 .392 .451 .293 37.6 144-C 3 5.8
2011 (age 28) 594 82 30 3 9 64 70 55 6 1 0.3 .298 .381 .419 .120 .304 .391 .444 .291 33.1 139-C 2 5.1
2012 (age 29) 572 77 29 3 9 62 66 54 5 1 0.4 .300 .381 .426 .132 .306 .392 .451 .292 31.7 134-C 0 4.6
2013 (age 30) 569 78 30 3 9 62 67 54 5 1 0.5 .303 .387 .429 .150 .310 .398 .455 .296 32.9 133-C -1 4.6
2014 (age 31) 578 77 30 3 8 62 67 54 5 1 0.5 .300 .380 .420 .122 .306 .391 .445 .291 28.8 135-C -1 4.2
2015 (age 32) 530 68 27 3 8 57 63 50 5 1 0.5 .298 .381 .421 .123 .304 .392 .446 .292 24.8 125-C -3 3.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .285 .360 .389
vs RHP .317 .406 .480
Split -.031 -.047 -.091
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 39.5 3.0 6.3 $16,600,000 49.1 68.9
2010 36.0 3.0 5.8 $16,125,000 45.2 68.4
2011 33.4 2.0 5.1 $14,275,000 38.5 56.9
2012 33.2 0.0 4.6 $13,625,000 35.1 51.0
2013 35.3 -1.0 4.6 $15,175,000 36.2 53.2
2014 32.4 -1.0 4.2 $13,975,000 31.6 46.6
2015 30.3 -3.0 3.5 $12,075,000 26.4 37.9
Peak 30.6 $72,875,000 235.7 344.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .312 .298 .281 .298
2010 .306 .288 .278 .293
2011 .304 .287 .272 .291
2012 .307 .290 .268 .292
2013 .311 .293 .272 .296
2014 .307 .289 .262 .291
2015 .307 .290 .266 .292


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 7% 0% 8%
2010 9% 2% 7%
2011 14% 3% 6%
2012 24% 4% 6%
2013 22% 9% 7%
2014 28% 14% 9%
2015 36% 20% 5%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

6

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Steve Kemp 1980 29 11 Mike Scioscia 1985 21
2 Ken Oberkfell 1982 28 12 Craig Biggio 1992 21
3 Jason Kendall 2000 25 13 Bruce Bochte 1977 21
4 Keith Hernandez 1980 24 14 Dmitri Young 1999 20
5 Robin Ventura 1993 23 15 Ray Fosse 1973 20
6 Ben Grieve 2002 22 16 Thurman Munson 1973 19
7 Joe Torre 1966 22 17 Darin Erstad 2000 19
8 Sean Casey 2000 22 18 Matt Murton 2007 18
9 Carlos May 1974 22 19 Ted Simmons 1975 18
10 Terry Kennedy 1982 21 20 Mark Kotsay 2002 17

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Since making Joe Mauer their starting catcher in April of 2004, the Twins have played 648 games; Mauer has played 415. That's a problem, and it's not going away until the Twins pick a new position for their franchise player. That he's an excellent catcher isn't the point; the Twins need his bat in the lineup 150 times a season, and they need Mauer to develop into the guy he was in 2006, but with more power. None of that will happen until he's a third baseman or left fielder. His recurring leg injuries are a flashing red sign that he should be moved.

2007

Mauer is the best position player on the Twins, and one of the best in all of baseball. The scary thing is that he`s probably only going to get better from here: the 36 doubles and 13 home runs he hit last year are going to slowly morph into something more like 25/25 over the next few years, and that batting average is anything but a fluke. Oh yeah, and we haven`t even mentioned how good he is defensively. We`re guessing all that talk about the Twins making a mistake by taking the hometown boy over Mark Prior with the first pick of the 2001 draft has calmed down a bit.

2006

The Twins managed his comeback from the knee injury carefully, and he responded by giving them a full season that makes it clear he`s every bit the prospect he was built up to be. It`s hard to know how great Mauer will become, because he`s unlike almost anyone in history. He`s huge for a catcher, which makes some worry about whether he`ll be able to stay behind the plate. Complicating things is that he`s not just a good catcher, he`s a very good catcher, working well with the pitching staff to deter the running game while also being a smooth receiver. So, as a catcher, does he stay or does he go? There is the expectation that Mauer is going to become a major power source as he gets older, which is a lot to risk given a catcher`s standard risks for a career-altering injury. However, the upside of having him there, given his talents and the scarcity of offense at the position, is so great that it`s worth seeing if he can handle the next couple of years behind the plate.

2005

If Kubel's knee is Questionable Joint #1, Joe Mauer's knee isn't all that far behind as Questionable Joint #1A. The Twins are telling everyone that there's no problem, and if you smoke enough oregano, you might completely believe it. Don't listen, because their actions tell you they're worried. Why else pick up both Mike Redmond and Corky Miller this winter? Even if or when Mauer is healed up, there's still the issue of his size, since he's probably the biggest catcher in the league behind the perpetually fragile Sandy Alomar. It's time to accept that Bunyanesque catchers aren't meant for long and healthy careers. The kid can hit, so the Twins will need to make sure they don't sacrifice his bat if squatting isn't feasible. Stay tuned.


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