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Jason Varitek
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 37
6' 2"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Jason Varitek 40 88 .227 9 3 10 0 .324 .400 1.2
1   2009 Total 40 88 .227 9 3 10 0 .324 .400 1.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 BOS MLB 416 46 19 2 12 55 46 87 1 2 -1.9 .238 .325 .400 -.150 .222 .318 .380 .244 3.3 92-C 1 1.2
2007 BOS MLB 518 57 15 3 17 68 71 122 1 2 -3.6 .255 .367 .421 -.043 .236 .355 .405 .268 21.0 120-C 7 3.5
2008 BOS MLB 483 37 20 0 13 43 52 122 0 1 -3.2 .220 .313 .359 -.194 .212 .311 .360 .236 -2.1 117-C 6 1.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:04 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 335 44 19 1 12 43 38 79 0 1 -2.8 .272 .361 .461 .054 .264 .355 .465 .284 17.5 81-C 0 3.0
75o 308 33 15 1 9 38 34 74 0 0 -2.4 .247 .336 .413 -.070 .240 .330 .417 .261 7.3 75-C 0 2.0
60o 300 31 15 0 9 36 33 73 0 0 -2.4 .241 .329 .401 -.101 .234 .324 .404 .255 5.0 73-C 0 1.7
50o 286 26 13 0 8 33 31 70 0 0 -2.2 .228 .316 .376 -.163 .221 .311 .380 .243 0.6 70-C 0 1.3
40o 280 25 12 0 7 32 30 69 0 0 -2.1 .223 .312 .368 -.185 .217 .307 .371 .239 -0.8 69-C 0 1.1
25o 263 21 11 0 6 29 28 66 0 0 -1.9 .210 .298 .342 -.251 .204 .293 .345 .225 -4.8 65-C 0 0.6
10o 52 1 1 0 0 3 5 16 0 0 -0.3 .112 .191 .154 -.729 .108 .188 .156 .028 -6.6 17-C 0 -0.5
Weighted Mean 258 23 12 0 7 31 28 63 0 0 -2.0 .235 .323 .389 -.096 .228 .318 .393 .249 3.4 64-C 0 1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

45%

29%

50%

1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 37) 258 23 12 0 7 31 28 63 0 0 -2.0 .235 .323 .389 -.096 .228 .318 .393 .249 3.4 64-C 0 1.4
2010 (age 38) 203 14 10 0 5 23 21 53 0 0 -0.8 .214 .303 .356 -.207 .211 .302 .364 .230 -1.2 51-C 0 0.5
2011 (age 39) 166 10 8 0 4 20 16 46 0 0 -0.5 .215 .293 .350 -.233 .211 .292 .357 .225 -1.1 43-C 0 0.2
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .244 .327 .403
vs RHP .232 .321 .381
Split +.012 +.005 +.023
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 3.9 0.0 1.4 $1,625,000 2.3 4.9
2010 -0.7 0.0 0.5 $800,000 -1.2 0.9
2011 -1.5 0.0 0.2 $600,000 -1.2 0.5
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 2.2 $1,900,000 0.2 7.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .261 .243 .225 .249
2010 .258 .237 .190 .230
2011 .235 .218 .163 .225
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 50% 0% 17%
2010 88% 42% 6%
2011 87% 62% 4%
2012 97% 88% 2%
2013 97% 94% 1%
2014 99% 94% 0%
2015 100% 96% 1%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

19

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Lance Parrish 1993 41 11 Gary Carter 1991 27
2 Terry Steinbach 1999 37 12 Jeff Reed 2000 27
3 Damian Miller 2007 35 13 Charlie O'Brien 1998 26
4 Greg Myers 2003 34 14 Bobby Bonilla 2000 25
5 Chad Kreuter 2001 34 15 Deron Johnson 1975 24
6 Rick Dempsey 1986 33 16 Mickey Tettleton 1997 23
7 Andy Seminick 1957 31 17 Todd Pratt 2004 23
8 Jim Hegan 1957 30 18 Gil Hodges 1961 22
9 Ron Hassey 1990 29 19 Kevin Millar 2008 21
10 Jim Sundberg 1988 28 20 Robin Ventura 2004 21

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

The four-year extension he received after 2004 has worked out reasonably well, with Varitek having had two good years and one poor one thus far. Having a better backup to take 15 to 20 more starts from him would help, as he's worn down in his last two full seasons. The mileage is definitely taking a toll on his power, which may not bounce back without more time off.

2007

Awash in their championship afterglow, the Sox signed Varitek to a four-year, $40-million contract knowing they`d be paying for his decline; they just didn`t expect it to start in Year Two of the deal. Varitek never got on track in 2006. His .243/.331/.411 line through July 31 would have been his worst since 2002, but a torn medial meniscus gave `worst` a whole new meaning. In the captain`s absence, the team went 10-23, plunging out of the playoff picture with the grace of a Boomer Wells cannonball. Upon returning, Varitek struck out an alarming 29 times in 61 AB, suggesting he still wasn`t right. He`ll have the winter to recuperate, but the Sox must reckon with owning a 35-year-old catcher whose body is no longer under warranty.

2006

After signing a seemingly ill-considered four-year, $40 million dollar contract, Varitek went out and easily justified the first year of the deal. Of course, it was never the first year, nor the second, that was going to be the problem; it`s still probable that the Sox felt that the only way to secure two good years of Varitek was to also pay for the two bad ones that were likely to come after. Now sporting an NHL-style "C" on his uniform, Jason is four months younger than Ivan Rodriguez and eight months younger than Jorge Posada, but he`s played hundreds fewer major league games than both, thanks in large part to Scott Boras` tough negotiating tactics. Those tactics may have cost Varitek money at the time, but could add some length to his career.

2005

Following up his impressive 2003 campaign with an equally productive 2004, Varitek has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He established a new career high in OBP, continued to hit for power, and hasn't yet shown the inevitable wear and tear common among backstops. Still, the history of catchers entering their mid-30s is littered with disappointments. The Sox gave him $40 million through age 36, a political signing if ever there was one.

2003

Like Nixon, Varitek achieved new heights in 2001. Unfortunately, Varitek also shared in the disappointment of 2002, as he hit .209 with only 2 HR in August and September. Varitek has a strong defensive reputation, but he’s already 30, and at this point is unlikely to ever develop into an offensive star. However, he is set to earn $4.7 million in 2003 and $6.7 million in 2004. If Kelly Shoppach continues to progress in the minors, the Red Sox should consider shopping Varitek at the trading deadline, before the shine comes entirely off.

2002

Varitek’s broken elbow was a cruel addition to the injury brigade, and one that hurt about as much as Garciaparra’s injury did. Varitek was off to a great start, one that had him in the top tier of AL catchers, when he went down, and despite the plethora of free catching talent available in 2001, the Sox ended up giving most of the playing time to Scott Hatteberg, who couldn’t hit the windshield if the bus stopped short. Varitek is expected to be 100 percent by spring training, and both he and the Sox need a big season from him.

2001

Although Jason Varitek’s season appears to be a disappointment, rumors abound that he was playing with a sore right hand and wrist that affected his swing and robbed him of most of his power. If he is healed by April, he's in line for a breakthrough year at the plate and a big raise after the season.

2000

Varitek took advantage of Hatteberg's injury to become the second-best offensive catcher in the AL. He hit equally well from both sides of the plate last year and is good defensively--his high passed-ball total comes from catching Tim Wakefield's knuckler. The deal that brought Varitek and Derek Lowe to Boston for Heathcliff Slocumb is starting to look like Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen in reverse.

1999

Now that he's spent a year in the majors, he's no longer known as the former Scott Boras holdout. Went to Lake Brantley High School in Florida, my alma mater.

1998

Who’s laughing now? The Twins, probably. The Phillies should keep mentioning Varitek’s name in the J.D. Drew negotiations. The Hatteberg/Leyritz platoon will probably be more productive than Varitek in 1998. If he has a good season, he might be worth taking a shot on in 1999 for his Age 27 year.

1997

The next time a team drafts a player represented by Scott Boras and the negotiations get tough, they should put the kid in touch with Varitek. Boras’ hard-line tactics turned away the Twins, who drafted him as a junior, and when the Mariners drafted him the following year, he insisted on marquee money. As a senior Varitek had no leverage, and held out until the following March. He eventually got $650,000, about average money for a late first-round pick, but lost about two years of development. His second season with a wood bat was discouragingly like his first, not what anyone expected from one of the greatest catchers in collegiate history. He’ll probably take a step forward this year, but he’s 25, and his star potential is almost gone.

1996

Introduced himself to the Mariners with a vicious contract dispute. Appears to be a very bright young man, and he's certainly impressive with the glove. I expect he'll hit better than indicated above, after the dreaded "Wooden Bat Adjustment." The Mariners may have more good prospects up the middle than any team in recent memory. Will have to be at least 30 before he's in Lou Piniella's comfort zone, no doubt.


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