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June 8, 2009

Prospectus Roundtable

Fixing the Mets

by Baseball Prospectus

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Matt Meyers of ESPN Insider: Welcome to our roundtable on the Mets' trade options. I've been commissioned to lead this conversation, and the plan is to have a back and forth regarding the Mets' trade options in the wake of the injuries to Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and J.J. Putz, not to mention the disastrous performance of Oliver Perez.

In my opinion, the Mets should target a corner guy who can play first base for now, and then shift to left if/when Delgado comes back. The potential upgrades at shortstop (Jack Wilson, David Eckstein) aren't so much better than Alex Cora that they are worth paying a premium for in terms of prospects and salary. I think the Mets could probably swing a deal for Aubrey Huff without having to give up much from the farm, as long as they are willing to eat what is left of his $8 million salary. Huff would be a major upgrade over Dan Muprhy at first, and he's someone who could move to the outfield upon Delgado's return.

Will Carroll: I think that the Mets have a couple of interesting situations here. With Carlos Delgado gone for much of the season, and Jose Reyes out for a month, plus their existing weaknesses at second base and catcher, I think they have to do a couple things, but they could do them all with one team: Cleveland.

The ideal would be to get Mark DeRosa and Victor Martinez, but I don't think the Indians would give up Martinez lightly. That means they get DeRosa-who can play virtually ever position save for catcher-and then get Ryan Garko, who's stuck behind Hafner and Martinez at the DH/1B slot. Garko fills in at first base, then caddies once Delgado comes back. I don't think they have to give up much if they take on the salary-a couple of B-level prospects might do it.

A second possibility would be to try and pry Max Ramirez loose from Texas. Jon Daniels isn't going to give him up easily either, but he could play first base and then get in the mix at catcher if Minaya can come up with the deal.

As for the pen, I don't think they need to do anything. Bobby Parnell seems solid enough in the eighth, and if Jerry Manuel can't mix and match the seventh, he doesn't deserve the job. A lot of people are also ignoring the progress of Billy Wagner; he could be back in August or September and that would be a huge boost if he's anything resembling the Wagner of old.

Jay Jaffe: I agree with Will in that Cleveland has lots of parts which might be a fit, with DeRosa and Garko both seemingly realistic.

If I'm the Mets, throwing Livan Hernandez and Tim Redding out there in the same rotation cycle, I'd start to sniff around the Mariners' Erik Bedard and see what it would take to acquire him. Granted, he's fragile, but he's certain to be available this summer, and he's pitching about as well as he ever has been. Better him than-to go back to the Indians, who are roadkill waiting to be picked over by vultures-Carl Pavano, because Bedard misses more bats.

If the price of Bedard is too steep-and let's face it, the Mets aren't brimming with blue-chip prospects-then Jarrod Washburn might be more attainable, particularly as he's more expensive ($10.35 million this year) and the ability to take on salary is something the Mets will need to draw on at some point in this process, given that they've got more holes than a Jarlsberg wheel. Washburn's not as good as his 3.22 ERA suggests, but he's a viable fourth starter. While they're at it, perhaps they can liberate Jeff Clement and throw him into the first-base mix. The Diamondbacks' Doug Davis is another pitcher who comes to mind, particularly as that team is DOA and always looking for salary relief.

For the relievers, LaTroy Hawkins is a name that comes to mind. He was pretty much run out of town on a rail by the Yankees last year, but he's done fantastic work with the Astros (47/13 K/BB in 43 2/3 innings, with just two homers allowed), and while he's currently closing games in Houston, the Astros are going nowhere.

Matt Meyers: It seems to me like the rotation is the least of the Mets' worries right now. At some point, can we accept that Livan is having a good season and doesn't need to be replaced? Or is there no way this isn't a fluke?

Kevin Goldstein: It's a little fluky, but I think they have more pressing needs. That is unless you can pick up a real potential monster like Bedard.

Will Carroll: By monster, do you mean the one that destroyed the Mariners last year? It's amazing how quickly people are willing to turn the page on two seasons of issues due to 10 starts of varying qualities.

Well, Jerry Manuel is lighting into John Maine, so I'm sure they can create a problem. Oliver Perez is a decent enough possibility and there's some other arms, so I don't think this is the pressing need that the first base/catcher slot is, and even that's not such a problem. Look, the Mets aren't the Nationals. They're a couple games back despite all these issues. The question isn't so much are they the new murderer's row, but are they good enough to keep up with a Phillies team that has it's own issues?

Christina Kahrl: I like Jay's thinking on Bedard, in that I think the Mets' more fundamental issue in terms of a unit that needs fixing if they're going to be in good shape down the stretch-after the injured are healthy-is fixing up that rotation. I just look at the proposition that Oliver Perez will somehow be right again, on top of the Mets' counting on Livan Hernandez or Redding as anything more than fifth men.

Right now, the Mets are 14th in terms of their rotation's rank in Support-Neutral winning percentage (.514). That's with the benefit of Livan ranking 30th in the majors among all starters with five or more starts, with a .579 SNWP. I don't think any of us expect that to last. So, whether it's Bedard (who you could afford as a subsequently departing free agent, since you still have to live with the Oliver mess) or Washburn (ditto, and I like him better than Jay on the strength of his strong second half last season), I like that proposition. Dealing with Jack Zduriencik comes with risks (he might see something in one of the Mets' group of low-minors prospects that you haven't), but that's the cost of doing business, and after the Putz deal, I think it might be safe to say that he and Omar Minaya can work something out.

Jay Jaffe: Even conceding the point that Hernandez has been serviceable (and 4.29 FIP is certainly that), you've still got Redding, a very flawed Maine, a broken Perez, and a Mike Pelfrey who's pushing a 5.00 ERA, though that's one bombing coming off five straight quality starts. Maybe they don't break the bank for a Bedard, but they need another solid starter given that it's Johan Santana and a whole lot more going wrong than right.

Back to the hitters, the Nationals' Nick Johnson would certainly fill the bill at first base, as would the Pirates' Adam LaRoche. Both are pending free agents on teams that could use the prospects. Josh Willingham might be an attainable fallback plan given the glut of outfielders the Nats have.

Matt Meyers: The problem with guys like LaRoche and Johnson is that there is still hope of a Delgado return. If he does come back, then you're stuck with two high-quality hitters limited to first base. It seems to me like they should target a bat who can play first base and the outfield, no?

Will Carroll: Some secondary position, to be sure, but I don't think that if the price is right, you don't get a first base-only guy. At worst, you have a way of spotting Delgado out a couple days a week and strengthen your bench. Sure, ideally they get a first base/outfield type, or better a firsr base/catcher type, but just because it's not a dessert topping doesn't mean it's not a good floor wax.

Jay Jaffe: Sure there's hope of a Delgado return, but the timeline and level of effectiveness are hardly a guarantee. If you're really concerned about it, Willingham fits the outfield/first base bill at a much lower price than Johnson.

That or you concede the first-base situation as a 4-6 week problem that you've got to patch through, and you simply try to get by with the in-house combination of Murphy and Tatis while putting your resources elsewhere, like pitching.

Will Carroll: Haven't Utley, Lowell, and Rodriguez taught us enough about what to expect on time and return to effectiveness?

Matt Meyers: So let's say a deal can be made. Kevin, who might have some value in the Mets' system that they would be willing to deal?

Kevin Goldstein: The Mets do not have a very good minor league system, but that doesn't mean that don't have so chips on the table should they decide to shore up their big-league team. Right now, the place to look for those chips is at Double-A Binghamton.

Jenry Mejia, RHP-Young power arms always generate interest in the trade market, and Mejia is just that. Recently promoted from High-A St. Lucie, Mejia delivered seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, and he's only 19 years old. Only six-feet tall, Mejia doesn't exactly look the part, but he's been in the low to mid-90s all year while showing significant progress in his secondary stuff and command. He'll likely be the first name on many prospective trade partner's lists.

Josh Thole, C-Seen as a bit of a sleeper coming into the year, Thole has been lacing line drives and drawing walks all year for the B-Mets, batting .348/.419/.471 in 49 games. He's not a great defender and has little power (just one home run in 187 at-bats), but the ability to play the position while also providing offensive worth up his value at baseball's scarcest position.

Ruben Tejada, SS-Also only 19 and already in Double-A, Tejada will never blow anyone away on a tools level, but he's looking more like a sure-fire big leaguer due to outstanding fundamentals and defensive versatility. An average runner with a line-drive swing and patient approach, Tejada's .273/.373/.385 line is made all the more impressive by his age and level, while he's a good second baseman and good-enough shortstop who makes every play he gets to.

Jay Jaffe: So Kevin, I take it they (or you) would consider Fernando Martinez untouchable in a deal? Granted, he hit well at Buffalo for six weeks or so and got the call-up recently, but his underwhelming 2007 and 2008 seasons seem to have tempered many peoples' enthusiasm for him.

Kevin Goldstein: I can't see him moving unless it's a massive blockbuster.

Will Carroll Isn't that tempering kind of like seeing Matt Leinart's senior season? A prospect that doesn't pop into the game and hit on all cylinders starts getting less comparisons to Babe Ruth and more to Andy Marte. Martinez's return is down, but as Kevin points out, there's more shiny new toys to deal. The problem I see with Martinez is that trading him creates one more hole that has to be filled by said blockbuster.

Christina Kahrl: I guess this is why I like the suggestion of Willingham or Garko or even Aubrey Huff in what ought to be lesser deals. Not that Garko's really an outfielder or Huff's much more than a potted plant at any of the four corners, but once Delgado's back, the Mets might plausibly employ them at other positions, which you can't do with Nick the Stick. Then they can decide whether or not to non-tender Garko or Willingham while perusing the free-agent market, which beyond Delgado and Huff would also have LaRoche and Johnson.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

44 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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kjgilber
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Uh oh, another New York centic article. Let the East Coast bias whining begin!

Jun 08, 2009 10:44 AM
rating: -10
 
Evan
(47)

Washburn? Really?

His pitching hasn't changed at all - just his results have changed. He's still a guy with a tRA over 5 (he's actually at 4.98 this season, but this season is the smallest available sample size). He's doing better because he's allowing fewer home runs and stranding more runners. He's the same average pitcher who hits on underage concession girls and throws his catcher under the bus when he loses games he's always been.

If the Mariners get anything useful back for Washburn it will be a huge steal for them.

Jun 08, 2009 10:52 AM
rating: -2
 
ScottyB

Brad Penny is apparently being shopped on the cheap...

FWIW- I really thought the Mets should have gone after Dunn in the offseason, play him in LF this year and then move him to 1B when they let Delgado walk after this season.

Jun 08, 2009 10:54 AM
rating: 2
 
krissbeth
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Okay. "This isn't East Coast enough! It's too mid-Atlantic region!"

Jun 08, 2009 11:02 AM
rating: -4
 
kerrigrr

You know your team's in trouble when a roundtable needs to be assembled to address their myriad of needs...

Jun 08, 2009 11:20 AM
rating: 0
 
JoshC77

A lot of the 1b types discussed here are left-handed hitters (i.e. Johnson, LaRoche, Garko, Huff, etc.). Would it make more sense to get a right-handed hitting 1b/OF so that you have a potential platoon partner for Delgado when he's back?

Jun 08, 2009 11:56 AM
rating: 1
 
buffum
(458)

Um ... Garko is right-handed. With a sizable platoon split, in fact. He can pound lefties, but is not very good against right-handers.

Jun 08, 2009 13:15 PM
rating: 2
 
Mountainhawk
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Fixing the Mets requires more than this. This core of Mets have shown they don't have "it", in my opinion, and all the tinkering in the world won't fix that.

Jun 08, 2009 11:59 AM
rating: -22
 
eighteen

That's it!!! They need Willie Bloomquist!!

Jun 08, 2009 13:08 PM
rating: 0
 
Matt Kory

But I thought they signed Alex Cora.

Jun 08, 2009 13:23 PM
rating: 0
 
jrbdmb

Cliff Floyd may be the answer. Reccommended as having "it" by no less a baseball authority than the Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dave-hollander/the-cliff-floyd-factor-so_b_105144.html

Jun 09, 2009 07:58 AM
rating: 0
 
alaime

As a Phils fan I like the Mets just the way they are. :)

Jun 08, 2009 12:14 PM
rating: 1
 
(0)

Dec 31, 1969 16:00 PM
rating: 0
 
Richie

I thought the Mets didn't have ability to take on salary. Having anything to do with Madoff or not, that they've clearly been passing up opportunities due to $$$ concerns. Was that so? If yes, has that changed?

Jun 08, 2009 13:41 PM
rating: 0
 
anderson721

Quick fix: build (or obtain) time machine. Go back 6 months, sign Lowe and Manny. Return to present. Pop a cold one, bide time until Manny's back. Cruise therafter.

Jun 08, 2009 14:28 PM
rating: 0
 
kerrigrr

How would having Manny on the Suspended list help the Mets at this point? I realize he'll be back (and mashing) in another month ~ but they're trying to patch holes and you can't patch a roster hole with what amounts to another hole.

Jun 08, 2009 15:41 PM
rating: 0
 
anderson721

Fine, sign Ibanez instead. But there goes the excuse to pop a cold one.

Jun 08, 2009 16:44 PM
rating: 1
 
antoine6

No, you can't sign Ibanez because if you do, you'll be roundly criticized by everyone at Bp. You'll be overpaying him, and therefore his production won't exist. That's how it's worked for the Phillies so far.

Jun 08, 2009 17:44 PM
rating: 0
 
twon88

Omar has said he has money available to make moves.

Jun 08, 2009 15:28 PM
rating: 0
 
twon88

After Adam LaRoche just said Beltran has no class I'd cross him off the list of possible trade targets.

Jun 08, 2009 15:44 PM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

I'm a Mets fan and I wouldn't trade Mejia for anyone. Let this season crash and burn and hold onto the youngsters.

Jun 08, 2009 15:53 PM
rating: 0
 
mwashuc06

Mejia could be a better version of Jurrijens

Jun 08, 2009 16:03 PM
rating: 0
 
Jmast7

I wouldn't trade any of the youngsters for an aging player who's a stopgap measure for this year only - chances are Omar's going to overpay for anyone he targets given that teams will know he's desperate.

I'd rather see the Mets simply try and ride out this wave of injuries and hope they're still in striking distance when they get some of their parts back rather than sacrifice what meager parts they do have on the farm.

Jun 08, 2009 16:37 PM
rating: 1
 
Ira

Why is it that when a team in New York sucks, everyone gets up in arms, but when a team elsewhere sucks, its because they just suck. Why can't the Mets just suck? The Braves had their down period, and the A's are having one now. The Mariners have sucked for years and no one seems to really care (except, well, Mariner fans).

Jun 08, 2009 16:46 PM
rating: 1
 
Amos

There was a ton of commotion about the Mariners crashing and burning last year.

Jun 08, 2009 21:38 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

Because the Mets don't "suck."

They're leading the WildCard despite suffering more injuries than any team in baseball.

Jun 08, 2009 17:18 PM
rating: 1
 
sbnirish77
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I assume that with all the suggestions about the Mets turning to Cleveland for a fix - that the writers here at BP have given up on their preseason pick of the Indians for the AL Central ??

Jun 08, 2009 19:18 PM
rating: -4
 
sbnirish77

I'll take back the above comment given that Will and Christina were the only 2 of 12 BP writers not to pick the Indians for the division - but good luck with those White sox picks ...

Jun 08, 2009 19:26 PM
rating: -3
 
BP staff member Jay Jaffe
BP staff

Seeing as how this is the Nth thread you've mentioned this very thought, I'd really like to know whether you expect each of us individually to undertake an exercise in self-flagellation for picking the Indians. It's not going to happen.

We make predictions. They're part of the public record. This just in: they're sometimes wrong. Frankly, predictions are the least interesting part of what we do, because simply making them (Jaffe, AL Central #1, Indians) doesn't give you any insight into WHY we made them, which is the far more interesting part (unless you're an insommiac gambler looking for guidance) that most of us would rather read and write about. And I say that as somebody who's got a track record as being among the better ones here in recent years.

When PECOTA "picks" the Indians at 86 wins and the AL Central flag, that's really only the weighted mean of hundreds if not thousands of individual projections, and it includes the human component of our best estimates regarding hundreds of quantities of playing time, many of which are subject to the relative randomness of injuries and small-sample poor performances which can affect decision-making. Nonetheless, PECOTA has the industry's strongest track record in this area (http://vegaswatch.net/2008/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-update.html), and occasionally we nail one where the rest of the industry is caught napping. But even so, it ain't always right, and it's probably right less often about an 86-win team in a tightly packed division than about a 100-win team in a spread-out one.

The standard deviation for a team PECOTA prediction is around eight wins (.050 winning percentage over the course of the season), which means for an 86-win team you're going to see them fall between about 78-94 wins around 2/3 of the time. So is it remarkable that a projected .531 team is playing as badly as the Indians are through the first third of the season? Not really. Their actual winning percentage is .424, which is nothing to write home about, but their run differential is just -9, and their various order Pythag projections, which are better predictors of their performance going forward, have them closer to .500 (.486 1st and 2nd order, .514 third order). The gap between their actual and projected records has plenty to do with their craptastic bullpen, which is 13th in a 14-team league in WXRL, with their strength of schedule (.515 projected winning percentage thus far), and with their injury situation (9.48% of payroll lost, third in the majors, and including a major impact on Grady Sizemore's performance). There's also been some lousy "performance" on the part of their braintrust, particularly in Eric Wedge's bullpen choices and his failure to utilize Matt LaPorta while he was up, their failure to straighten out Fausto Carmona or to get him out of harm's way and back in the minors quickly enough, and GM Mark Shapiro for suffering this whole mess for far too long, particularly in light of the team's third poor start in four years.

All of which is to say that in the grand scheme of things, their falling on their face thus far isn't anything so far beyond the realm of our understanding that it constitutes a special case whereby you're due a written apology from those of us who picked them.

Jun 09, 2009 08:36 AM
 
sbnirish77

I agree that the "WHY we made (certain picks), is the far more interesting part." Because the WHY reveals a certain groupthink that pervades BP and shows in its annual picks. Whether that groupthink has its origins in personal preferences or PECOTA is hard to tell.

I seem to recall a BP article that pointed out PECOTA picked the Red Sox to win an avergage of 5 more wins than their actual record over a period of time.

When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean.

It would be interesting to determine how many BP writers have picked Boston, Cleveland, and the A's to win their divisions over the past ten years and compare that to the actual numbers of division crowns. I suspect we may have found a statistic smaller than Big Papi's batting average.








Jun 09, 2009 10:38 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Jay Jaffe
BP staff

The numbers are out there, so please, knock yourself out if it's keeping you awake at nights. Seriously. Gather the data and provide some context by comparing it against similar set of predictions from other websites. Confine yourself to the PECOTA years (2003 onward) if you like, since that seems to be where you have the most beef, or 2005, since we've got the previously cited independent assessment of PECOTA's team-level accuracy. Hell, we used to run the standard deviations of picks in each staff poll, and in years we didn't we still published every ballot, so that's even more for you to track to try to illustrate your point.

It's too late for BP Idol, but I for one am looking forward to seeing how your vague assertions stack up when measured against reality and held to the standards that we at BP are. Should be a fun project.

Jun 09, 2009 14:01 PM
 
sbnirish77

OK

Here are the consensus picks by the BP staff for the AL East, Central, aand West for 2005-2009

2005 Boston Minn Oak
2006 Boston Clev Oak
2007 NY Clev LA
2008 Boston Det/Clev(tie) LA
2009 Boston Clev Oak

So the BP writers have picked Boston (4), Cleveland (4), or Oakland (3) to win the division a total of TEN times in the last five years and have been right exactly TWICE (2006 Oakland, 2007 Clev) thus far.

2 out of 10 - pretty pathetic

I could have taken the anti-BP dumb team picks of NY CHI and LA and been right at least a total of SIX times.

The BIAS is clear as are the results.

Jun 09, 2009 21:53 PM
rating: -3
 
sbnirish77

Sorry - 2 out of 11 for .181 below Big Papi's .197

Jun 09, 2009 21:55 PM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Jay Jaffe
BP staff

So I guess since I picked BOS, CLE, and OAK just five times in that span and went 2-for-5, I'm Ted Williams? As it is, I got 6/12 AL division winners in that span because I got the west all four years (so who says LAA is an anti-BP pick?) and when I missed on BOS/NY they ended up as Wild Cards.

The consistency of the consensus picks is clear, and I'll grant you that devoid of context, those results aren't flattering. However, evidence of bias isn't clear without context (unless we're talking about your simplistic confirmation bias). What did PECOTA say, compared to the consensus? What did last year's records or pythags (credible baselines for measuring pick success) say? How did we do in the NL? How often did we hit on the total percentage of playoff teams (which is what really matters, particularly since NY/BOS for division/WC has been such a crapshoot)? What did others in the industry pick? You've only scratched the surface.

Jun 10, 2009 12:08 PM
 
sbnirish77

"The consistency of the consensus picks is clear, and I'll grant you that devoid of context, those results aren't flattering. However, evidence of bias isn't clear without context ...."

I guess I better take any concession on this point I can from a BP writer I can get. The context of the BIAS is provided by the very articles I read here every day. As I said ...

"When the Red Sox, Indians, A's have any success its because they are smarter than everyone else. But when the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, or Phillies have had success in the past, we just have to read about their next regression to the mean."

Would you like me to point this out each time I see such an article?

For God's sake we got a book about 'How the Red Sox got smart and won a championship' but no such penning about the White Sox or Phillies.

All we had to read last year was how the Phillies would regress to the mean (esp the bullpen) and crash and burn (along with the shortcomings of Ryan Howard) not how they were smart enough to win a World Series.


The White Sox were ridiculed on their way to a championship (gosh they never would have made it there without all those HRs).

Here we get an article about how the Mets need fixing (3 games out) because presumably they haven't been or aren't smart enough and need the help of the collective BP braintrust.

I just pointed out that the assessment of the Indians braintrust and game plan in the past 5 years by BP has terribly off base and perhaps that would have made a more appropriate subject.

But the failure of the Indians as you laid it out is due the the vagrancies of PECOTA instead of an admission that their game plan might not be what most here at BP have it cracked up to be.

I agree that both smart team construction AND statitical variation can lead to both success and failure. The problem is that when BP is right (esp with repect to the Red Sox, Indians, and A's) the reason is attributed to team smarts.

But when BP is wrong (see White Sox and Phillies) a long and convoluted statistical analysis is on the way.

So I guess I could point out when I see that BIAS in articles as I see them and that is exactly what I was doing here.

Jun 10, 2009 15:58 PM
rating: -2
 
eighteen

First, 2009's results aren't even in yet, so it's 2 for 8. Stupid things like that don't help your cause.

Second, who but NY or BOS are you gonna pick for the AL East the past 4 years (don't even pretend you saw TB comin' last year)? As far as their records go, it's been a coin toss between NY and BOS since 2005 (with the possible exception of 2006). Both won 95 games in 2005. In 2007, BOS won 96, NYY 94. In 2008, BOS won 95, NYY 89. The only way you can look at that and see bias in choosing BOS, or see incompetence in picking a team that ends up winning 95 games, is by being biased yourself.

Jun 11, 2009 08:57 AM
rating: 1
 
Mountainhawk

PECOTA saw TBY coming last year, and their were articles on BP that basically said PECOTA is way too optimistic, they can't improve their defense that much in one year.

Jun 12, 2009 07:27 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jay Jaffe
BP staff

That's an oversimplification. In mid-April of last year, I wrote that it would take a record-setting performance for them to fulfill our projection - obviously, not something that on the surface one would have thought had a strong likelihood of happening, but something we kept a bead on all season long, revisiting several times.

With the defensive upgrades, combined with the pitching upgrades (and remember, they had by some measures the worst bullpen in history), the Rays were able to set records for rebounding in both areas. That they did was obviously one of the primary reasons for their turnaround, a validation of the power of PECOTA , and, in my mind, the best baseball story of the year, one I had the honor of telling in their BP09 essay.

Oh, and that I and perhaps other staffers took issue with that projection at the outset further shows we're not groupthinking automaton slaves to PECOTA, as some folks would like to believe.

Jun 13, 2009 14:48 PM
 
coolpapabell

I like the idea of bringing in Bedard, but the M's want to recoup the losses incurred in the great Jones heist, and I am not sure it would be worth backing up the truck for a potential half year rental. I would make Marte, Dillon Gee, Kunz, and Tejada available....or maybe Niese with a B prospect.

Speaking of Niese....I wonder why he wasn't mentioned as a potential trade chip. Many teams were inquiring about him last off-season. He hasn't been too good this year, but has shown improvement as of late. I actually think he could be the biggest practical piece to trade. He is major league ready(sort of). A second division team could slot him in the 5th slot now and allow him to take his lumps. He is on pace to compete for a spot in the Mets rotation next year. I can imagine that the Rangers would ask about Niese if the Mets were to ask about Max Ramirez.

Finally, Garko, or Willingham would probably be the best options in that they would require a modest offering. If the Mets want Bedard, Johnson, LaRoache(just say no Omar), or Matt Holliday so badly, then they should look at him in free agency, and save themselves some minors depth.

Closing thoughts: Live Arms like Mejia need to stay. At the very least he can slot into the pen and save Omar from spending loads on bullpen arms.

Please tell me why this would be a bad idea: Jorge Cantu..... would be a great piece to bring in via trade. He could platoon with Murphy at 1B and spell Castillo at 2B. I would send Dillon Gee, Kunz, and Nick Duda.

Jun 08, 2009 20:45 PM
rating: 0
 
eighteen

The Marlins can do better than that.

Jun 09, 2009 11:11 AM
rating: 0
 
dkirschner

Rather than make any moves, can the Mets play better baseball? Is there a way for them to stop committing so many (mental and physical) errors and baserunning blunders? Also, can someone please remove the bunt signal from Jerry Manuel's playbook. I also would like to add a "Do NOT bunt" signal for some of their hitters.

Jun 08, 2009 22:35 PM
rating: 3
 
jkosnett

I like that last comment best of all. Church and now Cora are back and maybe Reyes will be fresher late by missing some time now. What we need are a few home runs (the ballparks on the road haven't changed) and smarter fielding and baserunning. None of the players described as a possible pickup are known to be swell with a glove or possess great speed. It's not that long ago we saw Carlos Delgado, who is an extremely intelligent player, score from first base on an overthrow to win a game 1-0 although he was already suffering a leg injury. He will be back, and he'll be OK. I wouldn't object to Jorge Cantu just to get him off the Marlins, but the rest of these people, let 'em stay where they are.

Jun 09, 2009 10:16 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

The Mets have a few fundamental problems going on. They still have problems finding a left fielder, a right fielder, a catcher, staffing a bullpen and staffing a rotation without using retreads... on top of that, their minor league system is thin. Meanwhile, their core players (Wright/Reyes/Beltran/Santana) are getting older. Sure they can roll the dice and play for this season, but they might be better off blowing up the roster and restocking, as unpopular as that might be for the first year in their new park.

Jun 09, 2009 21:17 PM
rating: 0
 
eighteen

The last thing any Mets fan wants to see is Omar Minaya witha "For Sale" sign.

Jun 11, 2009 08:34 AM
rating: 0
 
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