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October 22, 2008

Prospectus Hit and Run

Revisiting Those Rays of Hope

by Jay Jaffe

Yesterday, I examined the record-setting improvement that the Rays' bullpen made from 2007 to 2008, and the role that turnaround played in helping the team vault from 66-win doormats with one of the all-time worst bullpens, to AL pennant winners with perhaps the majors' best unit. As it turns out, that wasn't the only historic turnaround this year's Rays pulled off.

Back in mid-April, when PECOTA's forecast for an 88-win season for the Rays still widely seen as outrageous, I dug deep to expose an underlying assumption of that projection which seemed even more outrageous. Namely, the Rays' rise was predicated on a record-setting year-to-year improvement in Defensive Efficiency, the ability of their fielders to convert batted balls into outs. As with the bullpen, the 2007 Devil Rays' defense had a claim as the worst in history via the lowest Defensive Efficiency since 1954, the earliest year of our database. Crunching the numbers, I concluded that PECOTA was predicting a 46-point improvement in Defensive Efficiency for these projected 88-win Rays, a jump that would rank as the second-greatest of all time. At the time, I was skeptical:

The take-home message here is that the magnitude of the defensive jump that stands as part of the foundation of this year's Rays forecast is virtually unprecedented over the last half-century. The franchise has plenty of reasons for optimism, both for the 2008 season and in the years beyond, and if nothing else they should be a damn sight more appealing than the eyesores of yesteryear. But at the moment, the case for their sudden rise into contention appears to be overstated, and we'd be well served to temper our expectations.

Holiday bird-feasting is still about a month away, but it's time for me to eat some crow here, since the Rays not only surpassed the 88 wins, but also the 46-point jump. As with the bullpen's WXRL total and Fair Run Average, they set a record for the largest year-to-year improvement in our database, and they led the majors in that category as well. Nate Silver's roll continues.

Before delving into the numbers, it's worth a clarification, however. Those Defensive Efficiency marks I used in the spring did not include Reached On Error totals in their calculations, a product of both a quirk in our sortable stats (since changed, along with adding the 1954-1958 seasons due to increased greatness on the part of Retrosheet) and the consequence of reverse-engineering team Defensive Efficiency marks from individual pitcher BABIPs. The figures here do include Reached on Error totals via the proper formula: 1 - ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR)). Here's the leaderboard, with years linked to the 1981 and 1994 strikes excluded:


Year  Team       DefEff  Prev   Diff
2008  Rays        .710   .656   .054
1980  Athletics   .728   .680   .048
1991  Braves      .714   .679   .035
1988  Brewers     .716   .683   .033
1971  Giants      .721   .689   .032
1978  White Sox   .714   .682   .032
2008  Marlins     .693   .661   .031
1955  Cubs        .735   .705   .030
1997  Tigers      .700   .671   .029
2001  Mariners    .727   .699   .028
1988  Reds        .726   .698   .028
1971  Astros      .715   .688   .027
1991  Angels      .708   .680   .027
1965  Pirates     .716   .688   .027
1985  Yankees     .711   .683   .027
1998  Yankees     .712   .685   .027
1992  Brewers     .725   .698   .027
1985  Giants      .707   .680   .027
1998  Red Sox     .703   .677   .026
2001  Twins       .700   .674   .026
1997  Astros      .693   .668   .026
2000  Mariners    .699   .673   .026
1968  Indians     .741   .715   .026
1978  Braves      .706   .680   .026

The Rays beat the record with six points to spare, and if you want a basis for comparison to that original 46-point assumption, consider that the 1 - BABIP version would tack on another seven points of Defensive Efficiency. The moves of third baseman Akinori Iwamura to second and of B.J. Upton from second to center field, plus the addition of Jason Bartlett at shortstop and Evan Longoria at third, made a huge difference for the Rays, one that made their bullpen turnaround possible.

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8 comments have been left for this article.

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Hank Brockett

(23734)

The defensive jump from the 1999 to the 2001 Mariners almost equals the Rays' rise, which only supports the amazing nature of doing it in one year. Cameron, Ichiro and Olerud helped, but there were no weak links on that defense ... and the same can be said for the Rays.

Oct 22, 2008 12:05 PM

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Jay Jaffe

BP staff

(9077)

Good point. In fact, the 54-point increase across two years for the 2000-2001 Mariners is the equal of the Rays' one-year increase.

The 2000 and 2001 Mariner squads also made yesterday's list of historically-improved bullpens. In fact, there's a fair bit of crossover between the two lists, as you might expect. I'll revisit the topic sometime in the near future and explore that link a bit further.

Oct 22, 2008 12:22 PM

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sbnirish77

(17711)

Exactly what measurable in PECOTA would predict that Iwamura would be good at 2B and Upton would be good in CF when they both were part of the problem at 3B and 2B last year?

I could understand that repalcing the SS with Bartlet might be forseen since PECOTA has some fielding data to use but in the case of Upton what data did PECOTA use (ht, wt, age, 40 yd dash time)? Seems a scout could have projected Upton as a CF much better than whatever data PECOTA might have used.

Oct 22, 2008 15:00 PM

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Jay Jaffe

BP staff

(9077)

Do you think either of these guys was the first player to move positions mid-career? I imagine that just as PECOTA draws comparables for everything else, it draws comparables for position conversions for players of a certain age, and incorporates a fair bit of regression in there (it incorporates regression for damn near everything). Note that Upton did have 78 games as a slightly below-average CF in 2007, so PECOTA wasn't entirely in the dark about his ability out there. His weighted mean forecast in CF still called for -4 FRAA. Iwamura's forecast was at 3B (-8) so I don't know what was used there.

The point is that even with these key question marks, PECOTA was uncannily correct about the improvement of the Rays' defense as a whole, not only in a qualitative sense that you might get from a skilled scout but also the quantitative sense of what that would mean for the Rays pitchers when it came to preventing runs.

Oct 22, 2008 15:57 PM

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Jay Jaffe

BP staff

(9077)

Thinking about this even more, a lot of PECOTA's outlook for the Rays' improvement can simply be attributed to the regression of pitcher BABIPs towards the mean, regardless of who was behind them.

Oct 22, 2008 18:54 PM

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gjhardy

(31494)

Jay wrote: "Having said all of that, it's important to remember that in a short series depth doesn't come into play as often as it does over the course of the season."

That's generally true, but any Red Sox fan who watched this post-season witnessed in horrifying detail what "bad depth" can do to a good team. Starting with Timlin's appearance in a tied Game 2, the Sox's lack of depth became increasingly apparent. With the season on the line in Game 7 vs. the Rays, the big budget Sox had no reasonable PH options for Kotsay vs. a LHP and for a catcher hitting .053 in the series...and two other catchers on the roster.

Why not pitch Byrd in Game 2 and resort to the 25th man on the roster only when Byrd ran out of gas? By then it's the 15th or 16th inning and it's a true emergency. This was the turning point of the whole series.

Why wasn't right-hand hitting Int'l League MVP Jeff Bailey on the roster instead of Timlin or David Ross (who was added to the roster so the Sox had options when they PH for Varitek...which they then generally declined to do even though he was clearly struggling)? In this case, the "wasted" 24th and 25th roster spots came back to haunt the Sox.

So while I agree depth is more important during the regular season, I wish the Sox had given some more thought to the end of their playoff bench.

Oct 23, 2008 09:49 AM

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Jay Jaffe

BP staff

(9077)

Nobody's arguing that in those extra-inning situations depth doesn't come into play, but those are generally the exceptions not the rule. Indeed, you're correct a big reason the Sox are sitting at home is the lack of depth on their bench -- which was hamstrung by the "need" to carry three catchers and then the failure to deploy Ross to advantage -- and their pitching staff. Injuries and poor decisions compounded that lack of depth, for sure. Everyone knew their bullpen was thin coming into the postseason, hence Masterson's rapid rush up the depth chart over the last six weeks or so. Timlin is as done as they come.

What I want to know is how come no one is talking about how Bartolo Colon quit on the team. Seems he might have been a decent alternative to have on the postseason roster, better than Timlin and perhaps Byrd, but he took his ball and went home. Where's the spittle-flecked chattering class when it comes to his untimely departure?

Oct 23, 2008 10:18 AM

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gjhardy

(31494)

Interesting thought, but with just seven appearances in his ill-fitting Sox uniform, and only one of those since June, I think most fans forgot he was on the team, and I doubt anyone would have been excited to see him on the roster. He did get a free pass on his shameful departure though.

Other than the Timlin decision, I think the biggest mistake the front office made was in not rostering another decent RH bat. They knew Lowell was iffy, as was Drew. Imagine what the lineup would have looked like if Drew had not been able to play. While some guys cooled off down the stretch -- Ellsbury and Lowrie in particular -- the Sox STILL had no extra bats on the bench if those two were starting. Do you think the Rays' decision to carry three LHP in their pen for the playoffs had anything to do with the fact that they would be seeing Ortiz/Drew/Kotsay and Ellsbury/Crisp the whole time? I bet it did.

Oct 23, 2008 12:41 PM

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