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Depending on how long you have been a Baseball Prospectus subscriber, welcome or welcome back to the Expert FAAB Review. Every week, I’m going to take a look at the players and the process behind the expert bidding in LABR mixed, Tout Wars NL, and Tout Wars AL. Bret Sayre and I participate in LABR mixed while I have a team in Tout Wars NL, so I will provide insights behind the reasoning on some the bids. Budgets in all three leagues start at $100 at the beginning of the season.

Tout Wars uses a Vickrey Auction system. A basic description of the Vickrey bidding system can be found here.

Random Quote of the Week: “Hate New York City. It’s cold and it’s damp. And all the people dressed like…monkeys.” —Randy Newman, I Love L.A.

LABR Mixed

Domingo Santana $4. Other bids: $1, $1. Player dropped: None.
As noted in earlier editions of this column, the rules in LABR do not permit FAAB bidding on minor-leaguers. Santana was part of the Brewers trade with the Astros for Carlos Gomez but was optioned to Triple-A and was not available for bid. Now he’s up with Milwaukee after a few weeks in the minors, and will get a shot at taking Gomez’s old job. In the long term, it will be Santana’s job to lose, but in the short term it isn’t clear how much playing time Santana will get as a starter and how often Shane Peterson will man center. In deeper mixed formats, Santana is obviously the guy you want to get. He is the prototype of a risk/reward candidate, but the power upside is strong enough that owners in 14-team mixed leagues or larger should grab Santana in the hopes that they can make a late push in homers.

Travis Shaw $4. Other bids: $1, $1. Player dropped: James Loney.
It isn’t realistic to expect Shaw to continue hitting at such a blistering pace, but as long as he is hitting he is worth a roster spot in deeper mixed. The 25-year-old first baseman was barely a blip on prospect lists this past winter, but Mike Napoli’s disintegration combined with the Red Sox general malaise pushed Shaw into an opportunity. Even when Shaw comes down to earth, his early returns all but guarantee him a starting job the rest of the way.

Bruce Rondon $3. Player released: None.
Ryan Vogelsong $2. Player released: Odrisamer Despaigne.
Kris Medlen $2. Player released: Miguel Gonzalez.
Travis Jankowski $1. Player released: None.
Randall Delgado $1. Player released: Will Smith.
Joaquin Benoit $1. Player released: Kurt Suzuki.

Rondon and Jankowski are the pickups that stand out in this relatively short list of acquisitions this week. Rondon appears to be in line for saves again in Detroit, and even 3-7 saves down the stretch could help significantly in a tight category in LABR. Jankowski will at least split center-field duties with Melvin Upton in San Diego, and the speed he displayed in the minors this year (32 steals between Double-A and Triple-A) is tantalizing. Jankowski batted ninth in his two major-league starts, so this will tamp down some of his fantasy value.

The quality of the starting pitchers picked up this week gives an idea of how thin pitching gets in a 15-team mixed league with six-man reserve lists. Vogelsong, Medlen, and Delgado all have an opportunity to contribute, but all three are fringy options, even in deeper mixed. This is the time of year when teams start chasing wins, but the damage a borderline pitcher can do to a team’s ERA/WHIP—where the baselines are generally higher than in mono leagues—is significant. It is an underutilized strategy in leagues without start caps or inning limits, but generally speaking I prefer grabbing high-end middle relievers like Benoit and playing for ERA/WHIP instead of pushing for wins and a smattering of strikeouts.

Tout Wars NL

Domingo Santana $27 ($30). Other bid: $26. Player reserved: Drew Storen.
I am somewhat surprised that only two owners bid on Santana in an NL-only (Phil Hertz of Baseball HQ did include Santana in one of his bid blocks as a low priority player). In my case, my offense is full with the exception of my catchers and adding Santana would have sent an everyday starter to my bench at a time when every at bat counts. For teams trying to defend OBP points or gain them, Santana is also a potential liability.

Aaron Altherr $25 ($26). Other bids: $24, $22, $16, $11, $2. Player reserved: Matt Adams.
Even though he cost slightly less than Santana, the bidding was livelier on Altherr. This is likely in part because Altherr offers both power and speed to his fantasy owners (albeit not a great amount in either category) but also because Altherr is a safer OBP play in a league where multiple teams are jockeying for points in the category. Brian Walton of Mastersball purchased Altherr, while Gene McCaffrey of Wise Guy Baseball and Hertz also put down $20-plus bids. Altherr could have some pretty solid impact down the stretch, but with 10 games against the Mets and six versus the Nationals remaining on the schedule, the matchups don’t favor Altherr or the Phillies on paper.

Jerad Eickhoff $4 ($13). Other bids: $3, $0, $0. Player reserved: Antonio Bastardo.
Eickhoff was part of the package that the Phillies received in their swap with the Rangers for Cole Hamels. He pitched six shutout innings in his big league debut against the Marlins, and while Eickhoff certainly isn’t a candidate to dominate the rest of the way, he does have NL-only value and is possibly a deeper mixed streamer under ideal circumstances. Eickhoff has a low ceiling but a moderate floor, and given his propensity for the long ball the move from Arlington to Citizens Bank Park (and from the AL to the NL) helps. Scott Wilderman of On Roto is pushing for starting pitching; adding Eickhoff and trading me three closers for Noah Syndergaard. It is a difficult path for Wilderman in wins and strikeouts, but a strong finish in ERA/WHIP could net Wilderman five points, which would keep him out of the FAAB penalty for 2016. He is 23 saves ahead of Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN, so Wilderman has nothing to lose in the category.

Jason Bourgeois $2 ($5). Other bid: $1. Player reserved: Alexi Amarista.
Travis Jankowski $1 ($15).
Other bid: $0. Player reserved: Elian Herrera.
With Denard Span on the DL, Cockcroft has been losing ground in stolen bases nearly every week and this past week finally lost some points in the standings as a result. In attempt to reverse this trend, Cockcroft grabbed Bourgeois and Jankowski for a cheap three dollars combined. Some of this was the luck of Vickery, as Hertz and Walton both had aggressive bids for Jankowski in their bid blocks but didn’t make him their first priority. Both Bourgeois and Jankowski could provide a boost for Cockcroft in steals, although they do put points he recently gained in OBP at risk. With Cockcroft closing in to within two points of my team at the end of Sunday’s games, both of us are attempting to maximize every point we can. Since neither one of us has a powerhouse squad, there is categorical risk with nearly every move that we make. An underrated element of risk for Cockcroft is that while neither Amarista nor Herrera have performed well in 2015, both had strong weeks last week and were not zeros on the stat sheet; this could turn into a lateral move or worse.

Darin Ruf $1 ($22). Other bid: $0. Player reserved: Clint Robinson.
Adonis Garcia $1 ($11).
Other bid: $0. Player reserved: Alberto Callaspo.
Tommy Pham $1 ($7).
Other bids: $0, $0. Player reserved: Domonic Brown.
Daniel Hudson $1 ($3). Player reserved: Addison Reed.
Darnell Sweeney $0. Player reserved: Shane Peterson.
Jeremy Jeffress $0. Player reserved: Jumbo Diaz.
Yusmerio Petit $0. Player reserved: Corey Knebel.
Brennan Boesch $0. Player reserved: Jamie Romak.

Phil Hertz is one of the best in-season managers in Tout Wars; his teams consistently outperform the teams he drafts (assuming no moves all year long). He was aggressive again this week, grabbing Ruf and continuing to shuffle relievers in and out of his lineup expertly, nabbing Hudson, Jeffress, and Petit. Hertz is making a strong charge for third and could get into second place if either my team or Cockcroft’s fall apart down the stretch.

However, with six weeks remaining it appears to be a two-team race between me and the Goliath of the league in Cockcroft, who has won Tout Wars NL for three years running. As noted above, he has closed the overall gap to two points. Three weeks ago, I was up by 10 points; as often is the case with such wild point swings, some of this shift has come because of poor performances on my team (primarily on the pitching side), while some of this has come because of strong performances on Cockcroft’s team (mostly on the hitting side). I was looking for opportunities to improve my team via trade, and finally found one this week, flipping Syndergaard to Wilderman for Mark Melancon, Francisco Rodriguez, and Brad Ziegler. With A.J. Ramos already in hand, this gives me a significant opportunity to move up in saves down the stretch. Thor may have a start or two skipped, so this gives me the additional advantage of not losing a pitcher with a full eight starts remaining. It is still going to be a close race, but hopefully the 2-3 saves points that the closers can gain me will put me over the top.

Tout Wars AL

Kris Medlen $9 ($24). Other bid: $8. Player reserved: Alex Wilson.
Steve Moyer of Inside Edge has a pile of FAAB and not much left to spend it on, so he made an aggressive bid for one of the better pitching plays in AL-only the rest of the way. Medlen is on a strong real-life team that will give him plenty of win chances, but is also a candidate for solid ERA/WHIP assuming health. This has always been the rub with Medlen, but there is no penalty for injuries, so this is a strong play on Moyer’s part.

Will Venable $5 ($6). Other bids: $4, $3. Player reserved: Leonys Martin.
I would have expected more robust bidding on Venable, but the Rangers seem committed to a straight platoon with Venable in the outfield. However, even on a part-time basis Venable is a solid play in AL-only as he moves from one of the worst hitters’ parks in baseball (not so much in 2015, but historically speaking) to one of the best. Venable has bounced back from a terrible 2014 to put up solid numbers this year, albeit nothing like his out-of-his-mind career year in 2013. Martin can be found in my “I-was-wrong” file, as I thought the Rangers would give him a legitimate chance to bounce back post-All Star. I also thought the Rangers would fall out of the race, so what the heck do I know about anything, really?

Greg Bird $3 ($23). Other bids: $2, $2. Player reserved: Josh Rutledge.
With Mark Teixeira missing time with a deep bone bruise, Bird has picked up a fair amount of playing time for the Yankees in the last week. He is one of those players whose ability and hit tool has allowed him to transition fairly easily to the major leagues and Yankee Stadium seems to be tailor made for his sweet swing. The playing time may not be there down the stretch if Tex is healthy, but with the Yankees hoping to give both Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez some days off here and there, Bird should get enough starts to be viable in AL-only.

Kevin Jepsen $1 ($19). Player reserved: Joakim Soria
Steven Pearce $1 ($6). Player released: Ike Davis.
Matt Barnes $1 ($4). Player reserved: Anibal Sanchez.
Buck Farmer $1 ($3). Player reserved: Jake Petricka.
Curt Casali $1 ($2). Player released: Hank Conger.
Ryan Strausborger $1 ($2). Player reserved: Colby Rasmus.
Gordon Beckham $1. Player released: Chris Johnson.
Alexi Ogando $1. Player reserved: CC Sabathia.
Hanser Alberto $0. Player released: Conor Gillaspie.
Chasen Shreve $0. Player reserved: Keone Kela.

That’s a fairly aggressive bid for Jepsen, but if Glen Perkins needs to miss additional time Jepsen could be a reliable saves option down the stretch. Casali is underrated in only, two catcher formats, and may even be slightly underrated in deeper mixed. Strausborger is the Rangers outfielder on the other side of the platoon with Will Venable; he is a useful matchup play in leagues with daily lineup changes.

Thank you for reading

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