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May 22, 2014

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

Third Base

by Andrew Koo


Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base | Second Base

Onward (and left-ward) we go.

Excellent Prospects

Rank

Name

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Minor Leagues,  PECOTA

8 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Wyomissing

In your 25-and-under portion at the end, did you mean Lawrie and Moustakas? Because Machado's upside score is well below the other 2 players. I enjoyed your article.

May 22, 2014 05:03 AM
rating: 0
 
Lagniappe

Surprised Nolan Arenado didn't make the list.

May 22, 2014 06:32 AM
rating: 4
 
Biesterfield

So in general would you say PECOTA does not work that well with prospects and young players? Having Kris Bryant has the 48th best third baseman prospect and ranking Moustakas over Machado will get you laughed out of rooms.

May 22, 2014 06:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Andrew Koo
BP staff

Some of the results match well with what we believe, some don't, which is understandable. Moustakas/Machado is a matter of fielding comps not doing so well (especially for such a great one like Machado), and Bryant is simply a sample size fluke. I wouldn't put any weight on Bryant's UPSIDE at all--we should almost never rely on any stat based on 139 PA, let alone a comparison algorithm.

May 22, 2014 07:20 AM
 
jlarsen

If you have watched videos of Gallo's approach and swing from last year to this year, he appears to have made some adjustments that make it seem like he's less likely to be another Jack Cust. Still quite early in the season, but slugging 700+ in the Carolina League isn't exactly an easy thing to do. Also a feat that a guy know for being an extreme hacker is talking pitches/drawing walks and had a streak of 24 consecutive PAs without a strikeout

May 22, 2014 10:07 AM
rating: 0
 
MatternK

Nice read. What about Rio Ruiz, 3B, Astros. I'm curios to know where he would be at on this list.

May 22, 2014 10:53 AM
rating: 1
 
evo34

These PECOTA projections are from the pre-season, right? So many of these players would have significantly different forecasts if they incorporated stats from this season.

May 22, 2014 22:24 PM
rating: 0
 
ravenight

I'm wondering if Upside would be better defined by taking, say, the average of the top 10 real seasons (i.e., not projected ones) after weighting by similarity, instead of averaging the non-negative WARP.

The idea is that it's supposed to measure how awesome the player could be (whereas the projections measure a risk-adjusted version of that). But there's a big difference between a guy with 12 comps that project to 1-3 WARP / year (and 8 that project to less than 0), and a guy with 4 comps in the 4-5 WARP / year range, and 12 in the 0-1 range.

You could even argue that the upside on a player is his single best similarity-weighted comp. If there's a chance you're Mike Trout, you have more upside than a guy whose best-performing comp is Angel Pagan.

May 27, 2014 08:57 AM
rating: 0
 
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