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May 22, 2014

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

Third Base

by Andrew Koo

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Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base | Second Base

Onward (and left-ward) we go.

Excellent Prospects

Rank

Name

Org

Age

UPSIDE

1

Joey Gallo

TEX

20

136.7

2

Miguel Sano

MIN

21

126.6

Meet baseball’s two most unique prospects. As teenagers, Gallo and Sano showcased their monstrous power last year, slugging a combined 75 home runs. They also struck out a combined 314 times, creating skewed profiles that limited their comps.

Gallo’s Similarity Index of 27 makes him PECOTA’s least-comparable player. A prospect who strikes out 35 percent of the time doesn’t exactly inspire visions of major-league stardom, but Gallo’s 40 bombs last season make a strong argument for potential success. He’s fighting history: from 1980 to 2010, 127 hitters have struck out at a 30 percent rate at Low-A. Three have exceeded 1 WARP in the majors: Russell Branyan, Shane Andrews, and Wily Mo Pena (and just six have accrued 2-plus WARP at Triple-A).

Run Gallo’s power and age through most forecasting systems, and no matter his future strikeout rate, the power keeps growing, according to our knowledge of aging curves. On slugging alone, only Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Ryan Howard best his projections. Home runs can compensate for tons of lost value striking out—under the construction of linear weights, a theoretical player who hits 100 home runs while striking out 500 times is worth roughly 10 batting runs.

The feasibility of such a player diminishes as the strikeout rate rises, however. Gallo’s long-term forecast calls for 47 home runs at age 22, and a 38 percent strikeout rate. At the major-league level, someone with that much swing-and-miss will be exploited. Historically, only Jack Cust shares Gallo’s whiff propensity, and Jack Cust didn’t last very long.

This is why PECOTA makes use of comparables. While forecasts can go haywire with unusual players like Gallo, history provides a reasonable basis for their likelihood of success based on fundamental skills like contact and raw power. Gallo lives on the extremes in those respective skills, making him a highly unusual prospect. While his UPSIDE came out high, the probability of failure is quite high, too, because there’s been no one like him. Comparables safeguard PECOTA’s projection of players like Gallo by noting the extreme nature and high variability of their weighted-mean forecast. Like Mookie Betts last week, Gallo’s weak Similarity Score calls for attention. Giancarlo Stanton might be his top comp, but they’re really not that similar.

Miguel Sano, who also draws Stanton as a comp, shows more similarity by simply being less extreme than Gallo. With Double-A experience under his felt, Sano is also safer than Gallo, who sits two levels below his counterpart. However, Sano is recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Gallo is hitting a home run once every 10 plate appearances at High-A. Sano won’t fare terribly in UPSIDE next year because he’s so advanced for his age, but his absence does raise the question of how losing a crucial developmental year impacts his future. Like Oscar Taveras last year, Sano will miss his age-21 season, and the lost growth may have a harmful effect on his overall projection.

Very Good Prospects

Rank

Name

Org

Age

UPSIDE

3

Matt Davidson

CHA

23

52.7

4

Maikel Franco

PHI

21

49.5

Remember Josh Bell? Throughout his minor-league career, Bell qualified as a solid power prospect yet lived on the edge, as he struck out time and time again in the big leagues. He’s the top comp for Matt Davidson, who arrives in Chicago with the same warning labels. The performance in Triple-A Reno deems him major-league ready, but PECOTA is wary of the 27 percent strikeout rate and, unlike Gallo and Sano, Davidson doesn’t bring an explosive power package to the plate. The White Sox’ fears can perhaps be assuaged by his early walk rates in Arizona last year, since impatience was the liability that doomed Bell. There’s enough there for Davidson to stay average; ultimately, the swing-and-miss scares PECOTA enough to place him closer to replacement level.

Frank, who swings plenty and hits plenty, doesn’t have the same problem. PECOTA doesn’t fear his aggression much because he makes so much contact and hits for power. At an easier position, the negative fielding projection should hurt him less and shape him as an average major leaguer.

Good Prospects

Rank

Name

Org

Age

UPSIDE

5

Miles Head

OAK

23

43.6

6

Jermaine Curtis

SLN

26

35.9

7

Hunter Dozier

KCA

22

35.9

8

Eric Jagielo

NYA

22

35

9

Mitch Walding

PHI

21

32.9

10

Anderson Feliz

NYA

22

32.9

11

Kaleb Cowart

ANA

22

30.4

12

Matthew Duffy

HOU

25

29.5

13

Dante Bichette

NYA

21

27.9

14

Stefan Welch

BOS

25

27.8

15

Carlos Asuaje

BOS

22

26.2

16

Robel Garcia

CLE

21

25.1

The remnants of Miles Head’s emergent offense from two years ago make him a still-viable prospect, and PECOTA’s giving him a pass for missing 2013 with an injury. Jermaine Curtis is essentially an org guy at this point, but PECOTA will hold out hope for on-base types who make tons of contact. As a college draftee, Dozier lit up Rookie League, just not enough for a 21-year-old.

(Position note: When we produced the long-term projections, we ran Nick Castellanos’ PECOTA as a left fielder (a mistake in hindsight). He’ll appear here in a few weeks.)

Notable Average/Marginal Prospects

Rank

Name

Org

Age

UPSIDE

19

Garin Cecchini

BOS

23

23.1

44

Colin Moran

MIA

21

15.2

45

D.J. Peterson

SEA

22

14.8

48

Kris Bryant

CHN

22

12.3

Without any power improvement from Cecchini over the past two years, PECOTA doesn’t envision it ever materializing (his peak SLG projection is .374). His on-base skills make him a solid-average hitter, with below-average defense at third. That offensive profile is the polar opposite of the recently demoted Will Middlebrooks, but value-wise, they even out—if Cecchini hits. As we discussed with Gallo before, home runs make up for a lot of shortcomings. Without power, Cecchini needs to produce everywhere else to offset his low slugging numbers. To illustrate the climb Cecchini has ahead of him, third basemen who slugged .374 weren’t worth very much last year. The Red Sox may prefer the stability of a good hitter, but he’ll ultimately lack the upside of a slugging third baseman like Middlebrooks.

Moran, Peterson, and Bryant aren’t prospects PECOTA dislikes. Rather, PECOTA just hasn’t gotten to know them. Bryant comes out worst with only 139 plate appearances to his name. The components that drive comparables—patience, contact, and slugging among them—take time to stabilize, and as you know, 200 plate appearances isn’t always enough.

Top 25-and-under third basemen

Rank

Name

Org

Age

UPSIDE

1

Mike Moustakas

KCA

25

292

2

Brett Lawrie

TOR

24

270.2

3

Manny Machado

BAL

21

211.2

4

Lonnie Chisenhall

CLE

25

206.7

5

Anthony Rendon

WAS

23

145.4

6

Joey Gallo

TEX

20

136.7

7

Miguel Sano

MIN

21

126.6

8

Will Middlebrooks

BOS

25

84.3

Lawrie and Machado have the best long-term forecasts here, boosted by their fielding. We’ve seen nearly three seasons of Lawrie, yet we’re still not very sure who he is—PECOTA, seeing his minor-league history and blazing major-league start and defense, suggests he’s capable of annual 4-5 win seasons.

Andrew Koo is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Andrew's other articles. You can contact Andrew by clicking here

Related Content:  Prospects,  Minor Leagues,  PECOTA

8 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Wyomissing

In your 25-and-under portion at the end, did you mean Lawrie and Moustakas? Because Machado's upside score is well below the other 2 players. I enjoyed your article.

May 22, 2014 05:03 AM
rating: 0
 
Lagniappe

Surprised Nolan Arenado didn't make the list.

May 22, 2014 06:32 AM
rating: 4
 
Biesterfield

So in general would you say PECOTA does not work that well with prospects and young players? Having Kris Bryant has the 48th best third baseman prospect and ranking Moustakas over Machado will get you laughed out of rooms.

May 22, 2014 06:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Andrew Koo
BP staff

Some of the results match well with what we believe, some don't, which is understandable. Moustakas/Machado is a matter of fielding comps not doing so well (especially for such a great one like Machado), and Bryant is simply a sample size fluke. I wouldn't put any weight on Bryant's UPSIDE at all--we should almost never rely on any stat based on 139 PA, let alone a comparison algorithm.

May 22, 2014 07:20 AM
 
jlarsen

If you have watched videos of Gallo's approach and swing from last year to this year, he appears to have made some adjustments that make it seem like he's less likely to be another Jack Cust. Still quite early in the season, but slugging 700+ in the Carolina League isn't exactly an easy thing to do. Also a feat that a guy know for being an extreme hacker is talking pitches/drawing walks and had a streak of 24 consecutive PAs without a strikeout

May 22, 2014 10:07 AM
rating: 0
 
MatternK

Nice read. What about Rio Ruiz, 3B, Astros. I'm curios to know where he would be at on this list.

May 22, 2014 10:53 AM
rating: 1
 
evo34

These PECOTA projections are from the pre-season, right? So many of these players would have significantly different forecasts if they incorporated stats from this season.

May 22, 2014 22:24 PM
rating: 0
 
ravenight

I'm wondering if Upside would be better defined by taking, say, the average of the top 10 real seasons (i.e., not projected ones) after weighting by similarity, instead of averaging the non-negative WARP.

The idea is that it's supposed to measure how awesome the player could be (whereas the projections measure a risk-adjusted version of that). But there's a big difference between a guy with 12 comps that project to 1-3 WARP / year (and 8 that project to less than 0), and a guy with 4 comps in the 4-5 WARP / year range, and 12 in the 0-1 range.

You could even argue that the upside on a player is his single best similarity-weighted comp. If there's a chance you're Mike Trout, you have more upside than a guy whose best-performing comp is Angel Pagan.

May 27, 2014 08:57 AM
rating: 0
 
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