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May 22, 2014
by Andrew Koo
Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base | Second Base
Onward (and left-ward) we go.
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8 comments have been left for this article.
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In your 25-and-under portion at the end, did you mean Lawrie and Moustakas? Because Machado's upside score is well below the other 2 players. I enjoyed your article.
Surprised Nolan Arenado didn't make the list.
So in general would you say PECOTA does not work that well with prospects and young players? Having Kris Bryant has the 48th best third baseman prospect and ranking Moustakas over Machado will get you laughed out of rooms.
Some of the results match well with what we believe, some don't, which is understandable. Moustakas/Machado is a matter of fielding comps not doing so well (especially for such a great one like Machado), and Bryant is simply a sample size fluke. I wouldn't put any weight on Bryant's UPSIDE at all--we should almost never rely on any stat based on 139 PA, let alone a comparison algorithm.
If you have watched videos of Gallo's approach and swing from last year to this year, he appears to have made some adjustments that make it seem like he's less likely to be another Jack Cust. Still quite early in the season, but slugging 700+ in the Carolina League isn't exactly an easy thing to do. Also a feat that a guy know for being an extreme hacker is talking pitches/drawing walks and had a streak of 24 consecutive PAs without a strikeout
Nice read. What about Rio Ruiz, 3B, Astros. I'm curios to know where he would be at on this list.
These PECOTA projections are from the pre-season, right? So many of these players would have significantly different forecasts if they incorporated stats from this season.
I'm wondering if Upside would be better defined by taking, say, the average of the top 10 real seasons (i.e., not projected ones) after weighting by similarity, instead of averaging the non-negative WARP.
The idea is that it's supposed to measure how awesome the player could be (whereas the projections measure a risk-adjusted version of that). But there's a big difference between a guy with 12 comps that project to 1-3 WARP / year (and 8 that project to less than 0), and a guy with 4 comps in the 4-5 WARP / year range, and 12 in the 0-1 range.
You could even argue that the upside on a player is his single best similarity-weighted comp. If there's a chance you're Mike Trout, you have more upside than a guy whose best-performing comp is Angel Pagan.
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