1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.
Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system's intricacies.
If you were starting a team from scratch today, without salary or service-time considerations, who should you pick first?
PECOTA projects the next decade of Mike Trout’s career.
Comparing PECOTA’s projected team records and Vegas’ over/under team win totals.