1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.
Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system's intricacies.
Projection systems and odds-makers have a lot more in common than you might think.
Last year PECOTA was all-in on the Twins, and it was right. What’s different this year?
Take a journey to the one percent.
Hey PECOTA, which young pitchers do you like this season?
Hey PECOTA, which young hitters do you like this season?