1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.
Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system's intricacies.
Taking a deeper look at the hitters dramatically out-performing even their best-case scenarios.
Projection systems and odds-makers have a lot more in common than you might think.
Last year PECOTA was all-in on the Twins, and it was right. What’s different this year?
Take a journey to the one percent.
Hey PECOTA, which young pitchers do you like this season?