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January 22, 2014

Fantasy Three-Year Projections

First Basemen

by Paul Sporer


Everyone in fantasy sports loves the look-ahead. Even in the throes of a pennant race, you can fire up a conversation about next year’s first round and it will go on for an hour. With that in mind, the BP fantasy team will be taking a long view look at every position this offseason with three-year rankings (composite value at the position over the next three seasons). We continue our way around the diamond with first basemen today! First base is the storage locker for bad defenders who can hit, especially in the NL where there is no DH. The position is almost always adding staff, but their value at the position is mitigated until they’re done qualifying elsewhere.

For example, you would be insane to use a primary-catcher first-base-eligible asset anywhere but catcher. In no circumstance are they worth more playing first base, and if you carry two such assets and put one at first base, you’re not only robbing the value of this asset, but you’re also putting yourself behind in the counting categories of first base to teams who have full-time first basemen in their lineup. At any other position (though predominantly 3B and OF), they are never more valuable at first base. You could use them there in a pinch, but just like with the catcher, you’re sapping the value of the asset.

With that in mind, understand that guys currently qualifying elsewhere were dinged a bit of first base value in the 2014 portion of equation. This ranking assumes the first basemen are used as such. The numbers someone like Carlos Santana brings to catcher are excellent, but they’re buried in the first base hierarchy.

I don’t see a great shift atop the first base rankings in the next three years.

1. Paul Goldschmidt
2. Edwin Encarnacion
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Joey Votto

I see some more body degradation for Cabrera in the future costing him some volume, not skill, but enough to cost him a few spots.

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<< Previous Article
BP Experts Prospect Mo... (01/22)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (01/16)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (01/29)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: ... (01/22)

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