Open Thread Experiment
Grant Desme, OF, Athletics (AFL: Phoenix)
Yesterday’s stats: Did not play
After pounding out 10 homers in his first 12 games, Desme hasn’t hit a home run in his last eight games. He’s still hitting .370/.457/.802, and I’m not sure there’s a prospect generating more debate in baseball right now. I’ve talked to three scouts this week who saw him at various stages of the season. One saw him at Low-A Kane County, one saw him at High-A Stockton, and one saw him in Arizona. All three had wildly varying opinions on Desme, with projections ranging from never getting to the big leagues to hitting 30 home runs there. We know he has power, we know he has speed, we know he strikes out at a disturbingly high rate, and he’s also incredibly streaky. Throw in the age factor because of all the injuries and there are just so many big positives and glaring negatives that it’s just plain hard to figure him out. So how about an open thread on the subject? What is Grant Desme four years from now, an All-Star or in Triple-A?
Bonus round: Are we even sure he’s better than the similarly skilled/tooled
Corey Brown?
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May I ask subsequent posters who have such experience to mention it in your post, anonymously of course?
Kevin has a great idea here if he can get the professional baseball community, which we all know lurks at this site, to pitch in.
But if it's just a bunch of know-nothings like me, we might as well discuss the Gold Gloves.
Do I think he'll be a star? Not likely based on his skillset but would I be surprised after this performance? No
Kevin, if you are going to keep this thread going, you need to supply some data on Desme, which I don't have access to. But a wonderful puzzle. Thanks
-23 is not young for Low or High A
-BABIP was .359 at Kane County and .350 at Stockton
-the California League is a hitter's paradise so I think his power numbers at Stockton have to be taken with a grain of salt
-cumlative MLE = .193/.242/.340 with 172 K's
-numbers from 07 and 08 are so small we've got nothing to gauge his improvement/growth with
I have no idea what he'll be, if anything, but if scouts are as torn as we are I think it's safe to say it would be a surprise if he turns into more than a regular on a 2nd division team.
A comment on the Rob Deer/Grant Desme comp: Tettleton/Deer were 3 true outcome players. If you only produce two of those 3 outcomes, You're a 4A hacker, at best. The difference is huge. If you're going to K all the time, you have to have other means of getting on base or you're going to fail in the majors.
Rob Deer could play defense.
If you can only go by what you saw: 1) You're going to miss a hell of a lot; and 2) you're on the wrong website.
His K rate was a whopping 27.4% of plate appearances. It was fairly consistent between low-A and high-A.
His BB rate was pretty low - 7.5% in low A and 12.7% in high A. Nice to see the improvement, but when you are striking out over 25% of the time, I want to see that BB rate higher than 12.7%.
Stockton is a hitters paradise. The Cal league in general boosts offensive production, and Stockton's 2008 park factor for HR was 1.27 (I cannot find the 2009 calculation yet). The MWL is most definitely a pitchers league, but even KC plays better than average for the batter. Its park factor from 2008 was 1.10 on HR.
Definitely take those HR numbers with a huge grain of salt. The speed is nice to see, but I am afraid he will not reach base often enough to use it. I simply cannot justify putting him on my top 100 despite the excellent AFL showing. If he starts to walk more in 2010, I will most definitely change my mind.
2 for 4, 2R, HR, 2RBI, SO
What you have to question about him is, Moneyball-hype aside, his organization. Most organizations seem to take on, more than just a personality, a deep-rooted penchant for doing certain things better than others. And in such organizations the prospects, regardless of their skill sets at the time they were drafted, seem to eventually settle into a generic organizational sameness. Oakland, for all their ability to develop pitchers (and never underestimate the home ballpark in that regard), has never seemed to be able to develop hitters (again, one should probably not underestimate the home park factor).
If Desme were a Ranger or a Red Sock, I might believe he had a chance to become a productive ML hitter. On the A's, however, history says he'll never produce at the big league level like his minor league numbers hint that he has the talent to.
Also interesting that you talk about home ballpark as being key in the A's development of pitchers, and then you suggest the Rangers and Red Sox develop hitters better, without noting that both of them play in ballparks that are pretty darn good for hitters. Just some things to think about.
If he's really on a fast track he might be a Cardinal, but not in St. Louis.