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Bobby Kielty
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Left Field
Bats B
Age 31
6' 1"
225 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
DH 3 Bobby Kielty 5 37 .260 11 2 12 0 .334 .409 1.5
RF 7 Bobby Kielty 10 67 .260 11 2 12 0 .334 .409 1.5
2   2008 Total 15 104 .260 11 2 12 0 .334 .409 1.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 OAK MJ 433 55 20 0 10 57 50 67 3 2 1.5 .263 .350 .395 -.004 .267 .364 .415 .273 6.9 51-LF 4 2.9
2006 SAC 3A 43 5 0 0 1 4 7 12 0 0 -0.8 .222 .349 .306 -.112 .216 .326 .297 .226 -1.5 0.0
2006 OAK MJ 297 35 20 1 8 36 22 49 2 0 -0.1 .270 .329 .441 -.011 .273 .339 .449 .272 5.4 38-LF 2 2.0
2007 PAW 3A 43 7 1 0 2 5 5 14 0 0 -0.1 .237 .326 .421 -.008 .211 .302 .395 .242 -0.6 0.1
2007 SAC 3A 37 6 4 0 0 1 4 7 0 0 -0.7 .394 .459 .515 .526 .273 .351 .364 .254 0.4 0.2
2007 BOS MJ 61 6 2 0 1 9 5 17 0 0 -0.1 .231 .295 .327 -.246 .231 .306 .327 .235 -2.5 0.1
2007 OAK MJ 40 4 1 0 0 3 3 9 0 0 -0.1 .200 .275 .229 -.416 .200 .275 .229 .183 -3.2 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:41 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 266 48 17 1 8 35 26 52 2 1 -0.3 .296 .369 .478 .140 .288 .365 .488 .297 12.4 65-LF -1 2.3
75o 245 38 15 1 6 30 23 50 2 1 -0.3 .275 .349 .438 .039 .268 .345 .448 .279 5.6 61-LF -1 1.6
60o 233 33 14 1 6 28 22 48 2 1 -0.3 .265 .339 .418 -.013 .258 .335 .427 .270 2.4 58-LF -2 1.3
50o 218 27 12 1 5 25 21 46 2 1 -0.2 .252 .326 .393 -.076 .245 .323 .401 .258 -1.0 55-LF -2 1.0
40o 201 22 10 0 4 22 19 44 1 0 -0.2 .237 .312 .364 -.147 .231 .309 .372 .244 -4.3 51-LF -2 0.6
25o 165 13 7 0 2 16 15 38 1 0 -0.2 .208 .284 .309 -.284 .203 .281 .316 .214 -8.9 43-LF -2 0.0
10o 114 6 4 0 1 9 10 28 1 0 -0.1 .175 .251 .245 -.440 .171 .249 .250 .173 -10.4 31-LF -2 -0.4
Weighted Mean 159 18 9 0 4 20 15 33 1 0 -0.2 .260 .334 .409 -.036 .253 .331 .418 .265 2.4 41-LF -1 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

28%

51%

33%

49%

1.04

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 31) 159 18 9 0 4 20 15 33 1 0 -0.2 .260 .334 .409 -.036 .253 .331 .418 .265 2.4 41-LF -1 1.5
2009 (age 32) 180 21 10 1 4 23 17 38 1 0 -0.2 .260 .335 .411 -.031 .257 .337 .428 .266 1.0 46-LF -1 1.0
2010 (age 33) 150 15 7 0 3 17 15 31 1 0 -0.1 .249 .328 .377 -.096 .246 .329 .392 .254 -0.9 39-LF -2 0.4
2011 (age 34) 137 15 6 0 3 19 15 28 1 0 -0.1 .259 .345 .401 -.029 .256 .346 .417 .268 0.5 36-LF -1 0.4
2012 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .280 .345 .466
vs RHP .253 .329 .375
Split +.027 +.015 +.091
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.7 0.8 1.5 $2,050,000 2.7 4.6
2009 0.6 0.4 1.0 $1,275,000 1.2 2.5
2010 0.3 0.2 0.4 $600,000 -1.6 0.5
2011 0.3 0.1 0.4 $725,000 0.3 0.7
2012 0.2 0.1 0.3 $650,000 0.4 1.5
2013 0.2 0.1 0.2 $550,000 0.0 0.0
2014 0.1 0.1 0.2 $575,000 0.2 0.0
Peak 3.9 $3,150,000 3.1 9.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .279 .258 .214 .265
2009 .276 .250 .224 .266
2010 .274 .251 .223 .254
2011 .288 .248 .199 .268
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 49% 0% 28%
2009 59% 27% 20%
2010 76% 42% 20%
2011 85% 63% 20%
2012 87% 72% 14%
2013 88% 84% 11%
2014 95% 89% 6%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

47

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
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Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Mark Whiten 1992 40 11 Jim Hickman 2003 33
2 Marty Cordova 1979 36 12 Mark Sweeney 1971 33
3 Jack Daugherty 1981 36 13 Dave Engle 1982 33
4 Steve Kemp 1970 36 14 Tony Clark 1960 33
5 Shane Spencer 1973 35 15 Ellis Burks 2007 32
6 Bill Renna 1992 35 16 Leon Roberts 1975 32
7 Dave Clark 1975 34 17 Mike Huff 1969 32
8 Turner Ward 1975 34 18 Fred Valentine 2000 31
9 Gary Matthews 1957 34 19 Chili Davis 1979 30
10 Chad Kreuter 1998 33 20 Chris Gwynn 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Kielty was the odd man in the outfield picture when the season opened, but as something of a lefty-killer--he entered 2006 with an 886 career OPS against southpaws--Kielty figured to work his way into the lineup at least a third of the time. He actually played more than that, thanks to all the injuries, and gave the A`s exactly the sort of production you`d want from your fourth outfielder. Kielty`s never going to hit as many homers as you`d expect from a 220-pound gardener, but as long as he hits .260 or .270 he`ll have a job as some team`s `professional hitter.` It probably would help if he`d just stop switch-hitting, as he`s batting just .230/.333/.350 in his career from the left side of the plate.

2006

Kielty is emblematic of a certain type of player who might fare well if evaluated on a production-per-dollar basis, but doesn`t really help you win championships if he`s in the lineup for more than half a year at a time. On the bright side, he`s developed a significant preference for left-handed pitching, and freeing him up to be Dan Johnson`s platoon partner is one of the more underrated benefits of the Milton Bradley trade.

2005

When they traded Ted Lilly to the Jays, the A's felt they might be getting the new Mitch Webster. What they got was Ron Roenicke, which isn't terrible as your fourth or fifth outfielder, but it's also not the sort of thing you put on your Amazon wish list. Beane remains optimistic about finally getting Kielty v2002, but hoping that Kielty would match his 2002 production over 400 at-bats would be a bit much. It's more likely that he'll end up being a great platoon partner for Charles Thomas in left should the A's deal Byrnes, which would at least be an upgrade in Roenickes from Ron to Gary.

2003

Kielty had a choice to sign wherever he pleased after being the Cape Cod League MVP in 1998, and he made a point of signing where he felt he’d get an opportunity. He obviously picked wisely, getting to the playoffs in his fourth year as a professional. He might get typecast as a fourth outfielder because he’s a switch-hitter with power and patience who can handle center on a team that has Torii Hunter. That would be unfortunate, because Kielty’s good enough to play every day, and he doesn’t have any platoon issues.

2002

He's ready to tackle a major-league job. Kielty is a tweener risk, but he can probably hit enough to handle a corner outfield spot. His plate discipline is good, and he has a quick bat, good foot speed, and solid mechanics in the outfield. He's facing an uphill battle for playing time, as the Twins have a veritable avalanche of corner outfielders who will be clawing for at-bats. Kielty probably offers the best mix of offense and defense available. Look for him to peak somewhere in the vicinity of .310/.400/.520 or so, while playing good defense in left field.

2001

Bobby Kielty struggled with allergy and contact-lens problems in 1999, after which he had LASIK surgery, skipped a level, and handled Double-A just fine. He’s a true switch-hitter, batting well from both sides of the plate. In center field, he gets good jumps and seems to cover the alleys well, but range is an issue. He has a Dave Henderson problem, too: his throws to the plate tail up the third-base line. With Hunter and Jones able to play center field, Kielty will move to a corner when he’s called up this year. There’s a lot to like here, and while he may not solve the team’s power problems, he will give them another useful bat.

2000

His signing was a major coup for Twins’ player development. After his senior season at Mississippi was marred by a skiing accident, he went undrafted in 1998. He went on to star in the Cape Cod League, then chose to sign with the Twins because he thinks his best shot at the majors is with them. Remember that the next time you hear somebody argue that only “big market” teams would be able to sign great amateur talent without the draft. Guys want to end up in the majors, not rotting in Columbus waiting for Darryl Strawberry’s next indictment. Kielty will stay in center field until he proves he can’t play there; so far, he gets a good jump on the ball.


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