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Jacob (J.B.) Bukauskas

Born: 10/11/1996 (Age: 20)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 5' 11" Weight: 200
Mechanics
Short, solid muscular build; three-quarter slot, inconsistent mechanics, significant head whack; velocity generated by whip in upper body, quick to the plate, occasionally falls off to first-base side; doesn’t use his lower half, arm-strength delivery, elite arm speed
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
Dates Seen 5/26/2017
OFP/Risk 50/High
Realistic 45; No. 5 Starter/Swingman
MLB ETA 2019
Video No
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
FA 50 70 91-96 98 High-90s offering plays down at present due to lack of movement, inconsistent command; 94-96 early, velocity dropped off after 50 pitches, better life at 91-93 in later innings, needs command and movement to play up to the velo
SL 40 50 81-88 90 Hard slider plays well off fastball, command below-average, lost it to his glove side multiple times; 86-88 (t90) early, better shape and movement at 81-83 later in the game, more bite and vertical action at lower velocity
CH 30 40 86-88 88 Shares velocity band with breaking ball; ,ell below-average command, struggled to turn over, lost to his arm side several times; abandoned it in middle innings
Overall

Bukauskas has incredible physical tools, but his inability to harness them results in inconsistent performance. He showed some of the tools that have pushed him into top-10 consideration – his fastball topped out at 98 twice, and both secondaries flashed excellent movement. He struggled to command all three pitches, however, and fought to find consistent mechanics early on.

He displayed superior command and better movement on his breaking ball in particular with lower velocity deeper in the start. All five strikeouts came after his 65th pitch, with a breaking ball that looks more like a slurve than a power slider. If a team can get Bukauskas to engage his lower half through his delivery, there’s a chance he could maintain his higher velocity with the command he flashed at 92-94 mph.


Brendan McKay

Born: 12/18/1995 (Age: 21)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 220
Mechanics
Solid frame, more athletic than he appears at first glance; high three-quarter slot, simple, repeatable mechanics, fluid delivery, quick to the plate, occasionally falls off to the third base side; decent leg drive, above-average arm speed
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
Dates Seen 5/25/2017
OFP/Risk 70/Moderate
Realistic 60; No. 3 Starter
MLB ETA 2019
Video No
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
FA 50 60 91-93 95 Low-90s offering plays up due to feel for the pitch, able to move it around the zone at will, very advanced command, projection for improvement if he focuses on pitching, holds velo well
FC 40 50 88-90 91 Solid glove-side cutting action, induces weak contact; not a swing-and-miss pitch, shows potential for improvement, potential to be an average pitch
CU 45 60 78-83 83 Two versions, harder one with 10-4 action, slower variant with 12-6 break and better depth; flashes solid command of both versions, feel to manipulate, room for improvement in consistency
CH 50 60 85-87 88 Hard change flashes plus, might be better than the breaking ball(s); quality command of the pitch; small velo separation drives weak contact, generates some movement, commands it just off the zone as a chaser, potential plus utility
Overall

McKay came into the 2017 season as one of the top pitchers in the draft class, and he has met those lofty expectations, striking out north of 12 batters an inning as Louisville's ace. He doesn’t have raw stuff that’ll blow opposing hitters away, but the arsenal is very good and he commands it with advanced precision to outsmart hitters. He's been worked hard in college, so there are some flags there, but his floor is very high with room for plenty of projection thanks to the command profile and baseline stuff. As a top 3 potential draft selection, McKay provides security with a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter with additional refinement.


Brendan McKay

Born: 12/18/1995 (Age: 21)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 220
Primary Position: 1B
Secondary Position: RF
Physical/Health
Sturdy frame; more athletic than he gets credit for.
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Dates Seen 5/9/2017, 5/25/2017, 5/26/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2020 Moderate 70 55; Above-Average Regular No
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 70 Above-average bat speed; quick and loose hands/wrists; tremendous barrel control; relaxed approach; typically very quick to the ball; swing can get long at times; exceptional feel for the zone; minimal lower half movement; elite hand-eye coordination.
Power 50 Good leverage; drives the ball well; clean, efficient swing mechanics; shows potential for 15-25 HR power in MLB; gets good loft on pitches down in the zone.
Baserunning/Speed 40 Smart baserunner with modest speed; shows potential for improvement.
Glove 50 Solid defensively at first; seems comfortable fielding the ball, taking throws, etc.
Arm 70 Elite arm; rests arm playing first between starts.
Overall

McKay showcases elite bat-to-ball skills, with an unexpected increase in in-game power this season. McKay’s hit tool can carry him through the minors; the only concern is whether it’ll play at first base where the demands on the bat are higher. There’s the potential for a real impact position player here, the type of player who’s an All-Star multiple times over the course of his career.

If you believe there’s potential for McKay to play the outfield long term, as I do, it makes his potential profile as a position player even more attractive.


Logan Warmoth

Born: 09/06/1995 (Age: 21)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 184
Primary Position: SS
Secondary Position: 2B
Physical/Health
Athletic build; lean; room for growth and to fill out his frame.
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Dates Seen 5/25/2017, 5/26/2017, 5/27/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2020 Moderate 55 45; Second-Division Regular No
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 60 Shows good balance; bat is noisy before delivery; smooth through the zone; moderate barrel control; minimal load; moderate leg kick; shows good pitch recognition.
Power 45 Line-drive hitter; showed solid power to his pull side; bat speed is above average; hit tool allows in-game power to play up.
Baserunning/Speed 55 Not a burner; speed plays up because of baserunning ability.
Glove 50 Shows decent range and mobility; gets good reads off the bat; soft hands; could stay at SS long term.
Arm 40 Solid accuracy; lacks arm strength however.
Overall

Warmoth is a high-floor middle-infielder who seems to only hit hard line drives. He showed good patience at the plate and was robbed of three straight line drive base hits into left-center by a terrific stop by the shortstop.

What Warmoth lacks in ceiling, he makes up for with a high floor. He should be able to stick at shortstop, and hit well enough to not be a liability there. He won’t be a great defensive shortstop at the major league level, but he should play good enough defense and hit well enough to be a solid regular.


Brian Miller

Born: 08/20/1995 (Age: 21)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 177
Primary Position: CF
Secondary Position: RF
Physical/Health
Slight build, physical projection remaining, room to fill out
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Dates Seen 5/25 – 5/27/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2020 High 60 45: Second-Division Regular No
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 60 Good balance, premium barrel control; quick to the ball, above-average pitch recognition
Power 40 Decent leverage in his swing, moderate load and bat wrap, above-average bat speed, gap power
Baserunning/Speed 70 Elite speed (3.98-4.02 home to first), shows advanced base-running skills
Glove 60 Excellent range, gets good reads on the ball; takes efficient routes, will stick in center in pro ball
Arm 50 Solid arm strength and accuracy, ball carries well
Overall

Miller was impressive in ACC Tournament play, collecting a number of hits and a home run while displaying excellent pitch recognition and plate discipline. This season Miller led the Tar Heels in batting average while walking more than he struck out. Miller makes center field look easy, taking good routes to the ball and controlling his body through difficult catches look easy. He has plenty of speed, and it plays on the base paths and in the field.

The biggest red flag on Miller's profile is his lack of raw power. He’ll likely hit for below-average power at the next level, with more doubles and triples driving his slugging percentage than homers. The hit tool and defense will have to carry him through the minor leagues.


Drew Ellis

Born: 12/01/1995 (Age: 21)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 192
Primary Position: 3B
Secondary Position: 1B
Physical/Health
Tall and athletic, some projection left as he fills out
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Dates Seen 5/9, 5/25-5/26/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2021 High 50 40; Corner bat on the bench No
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 40 High leg kick, extreme bat wrap; noisy swing with lots of moving parts, demonstrates some barrel control in spite of noise
Power 55 Plus bat speed, solid leverage, generates plenty of loft on the ball; raw power is plus, should get to a majority of it
Baserunning/Speed 40 Below-average speed, moderate skills on the base paths
Glove 40 Decent range, soft hands, gets average reads and reactions on contact
Arm 50 Solid-average arm strength, below-average accuracy at present
Overall

Ellis is a perfect example of a player whose value hinges on his hit tool. He projects as a borderline defender with an okay glove at third at the next level, and while the arm can play on the left side, there will be some accuracy issues along the way. Ellis has terrific raw power, but the question is whether or not he’ll hit enough to get to that power in games. His long swing will likely give some teams pause.

If Ellis proves that he can recognize and lay off secondaries, he can have a future as a low-average, 20-plus homer average regular at third.


Devin Hairston

Born: 04/07/1995 (Age: 22)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 5' 7" Weight: 157
Primary Position: SS
Secondary Position: 2B
Physical/Health
Small frame, stocky and athletic, minimal projection left
Evaluator Jeff Long
Report Date 06/06/2017
Dates Seen 5/9, 5/25-5/26/2017
Affiliate Unaffiliated
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2021 High 50 40; Below-Average Player No
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 45 Good balance, moderate barrel control, minimal bat wrap, mild leg kick, quick to the ball; sometimes gets too much loft in his swing
Power 30 Average bat speed, minimal load, mild leverage
Baserunning/Speed 45 Average speed, average instincts on the base paths, more of a hard runner, fringe-average utility
Glove 50 Moderate range, above-average mobility, has good hands, quality reads and first step
Arm 50 Solid arm strength, below-average accuracy
Overall

Hairston is a gritty player, the kind who gets mad when he doesn’t throw a runner out after tracking down a ball he had no right getting to. Despite his small stature, Hairston brings a big presence to the field. He swings hard and plays harder, sometimes to his detriment.

His swing can get too much loft in it, resulting in fly balls rather than base hits. Hairston can be a streaky hitter, launching line drives into left field with repetition before going on a run of fly balls that are caught for outs. If Hairston can hone his approach at the next level and stick at shortstop ,there’s a chance he could be a solid regular who plays above his tools.


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SansRig
6/09
This is great! The Bukauskas report is particularly interesting to me because I missed him this year, and there are people who think of his SL as the best in the class. It’s interesting to see a report from a not great day, since I mostly hear how he could pitch in an MLB bullpen tomorrow. I like the hit grade for McKay a lot, and I like that you are light on Warmoth’s arm. I think that I’ve seen it as a 55 or 60 somewhere for Warmoth, which seems ridiculous.
BSLJeffLong
6/09
Warmoth had a couple of throws that left me wanting, but both were on the same day. I would buy a 50 arm on him ... 60 might be stretching it, but others have seen him more than I have.
SansRig
6/09
Sometimes I think that there is an assumption in the scouting community that there has to be a certain number of players who fit into certain buckets in every draft. Of course, this is a fallacy, but Warmoth seems like a good example. I think his arm specifically gets inflated because he kind of needs it to fit into the college shortstop bucket. (He is not a lock to be a shortstop, in my opinion, even if he had a 60 arm.) It’s also hard to get an appropriate read, since he plays behind Bukauskas, Dalatri, and Baum. He literally could only be making one valuable throw per game. I have seen him do it from a few angles, which is a point in his favor, and why I would put a 50 on it, but its closer to a 45 than a 55 for me. I guess my point is that I like what you did with these evaluations. Thanks again.
BSLJeffLong
6/09
Agreed completely. And I appreciate the kind words!
bobbygrace
6/09
Wow, Brendan McKay. An OFP of 70 as either a pitcher or a hitter? Wow. So, he's got a realistic role 60 designation as a pitcher, or a realistic role 55 as a right fielder. You're advising the GM. Do you recommend that the team make him a hitter or a pitcher?
BSLJeffLong
6/09
Honestly, he'll have thrown probably 125+ innings when this season is said and done. If you draft him, you let him play the field (RF, probably) for the duration of the summer and don't have him throw. If he shows he can stick there and hits well, then you make the decision this offseason about long term approach.