BP on Draft: Reviewing the National League

Image credit: © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

East

Atlanta Braves

Overview: The Braves bucked their trend of taking pitchers with their first pick, instead selecting Tate Southisene, a prep shortstop with plenty of twitch in his swing, if not a lot of control. That said, the highest bonus was given to a local-ish prep pitcher, Briggs McKenzie, a young-for-the-class lefty with impressive spin traits but inconsistent velocity throughout the spring. Alex Lodise is a hyperaggressive hitter who could run into chase issues, but his combination of exit velocities and launch angle distribution make you question what we actually mean when we try to quantify a hit tool. Cody Miller and Dixon Williams are both under-slot college infielders, with Miller using a contact and air pull approach and Williams being more power-oriented. Connor Essenburg is an athletic two-way player who was announced as an outfielder and has some power upside, especially if he develops as a hitter only. Landon Beidelschies has a fastball and changeup that flash, but needs breaking ball development, and Zach Royse has a hard slider but it remains to be seen if his fastball traits will play in pro ball. Carter Lovasz, Logan Braunschweig, and Kade Woods all got next to nothing as money-saving picks. Woods is the most interesting of the three, with a fastball that gets into the mid-90s with good extension and a power curveball. Jay Woolfolk has been a mainstay in the Virginia rotation with a cutter-heavy approach that he pairs with a carry four-seam and splitter, but nothing is thrown particularly hard and the shapes can be inconsistent.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Logan Forsythe (no, not that one) can struggle some issuing free passes, but he has a fun stuff profile. His smaller frame allows his fastball to have some cut and ride from a lower release in the mid-90s, and he pairs that with a sweeper at 86. He’s occasionally flashed a low-spin changeup-esque offering, but the fastball/sweeper combo could work in a major league relief role.

Miami Marlins

Overview: The Marlins have suffered a severe drought of offensive life since their big selloff in 2017, so, naturally, their first six picks were all college bats, and not a single one of their 21 selections came out of high school. Although it was a disappointing class for offensive talent out of college, they still managed to land our number one bat and third overall player in the class in Aiva Arquette. They followed it up by grabbing Clemson’s stud center fielder Cam Cannarella and then taking some absolute mashers in Brandon Compton, Max Williams, and Drew Faurot. While Cannarella isn’t fitting the mold as much as the others, all five bats certainly have a ton in common: lower in-zone contact rates, consistent top-end EVs, but struggle to lift and optimize their hardest-hit BBE. Accompanying Williams and Faurot, their FSU teammate Joey Volini has a deep arsenal, headlined by a changeup that falls right off of the primary fastball’s path, along with a gyro and big curve. RHP Jake Clemente and LHP Kaiden Wilson each have three offerings that project for whiffs. They did an immediate 180 with the Emilio Barreras pick, as he has one of the highest contact rates in college baseball, but most of his exit velocities are clustered towards the bottom of his EV range, and then went back to the script with Jake McCutcheon in round 10. If there’s a belief within the organization that swing path and barrel accuracy tweaks can materialize without surrendering any or all of the bat-to-ball skill, this draft should be a huge success.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Xavier Cardenas III was a late Day 2 pick, but he’s got some super interesting traits. He’s up to 100 mph from a near 7-foot release height, and utilizes a really steep approach angle, which can sometimes bleed over the heart of the plate. He can certainly add velocity throughout his arsenal with his 6-foot-6 frame, but there’s no real breaker in his arsenal, and that’s where I trust the Marlins to come in and do their thing.

New York Mets

Overview: Having little slot money to work with, the Mets doubled down on the new regime’s MO: fastball traits, athleticism, and guys with extra development due to being younger and/or having two-way status. Mitch Voit fits all of the relevant aforementioned descriptors and has the force output measurements to project some power increases. Antonio Jimenez is a contact/damage bat with considerable upside if he can rein in the swing decisions, and Peter Kussow is a project cold-weather prep arm with some feel for velo and spin. The highlight of the class are the early Day 2 college arms—Peyton Prescott, Nathan Hall, and Cam Tilly, who all show interesting stuff markers with various types of projection (Hall has some metric similarities to 2024 seventh-rounder Will Watson with a slightly higher release but better sweeper, and Tilly stands out for spin traits and athleticism.) Anthony Frobose might be a contact/damage bat as a younger two-way player, and Wyatt Vincent is an athletic center fielder who needs a swing overhaul. Truman Pauley has some of the highest fastball carry in the draft, even if he doesn’t know where it’s going. Dillon Stiltner was a surprise signing as an 18th-rounder, but he’s been up to 97—at least on certain velo readouts—with an athletic delivery and the makings of a sinker/slider combo.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Peyton Prescott likely won’t be seen until 2027, but his profile is perfectly built for what the Mets want to do—taking a draft-eligible sophomore with interesting fastball traits in the mid-90s, likely building him back up as a starter, and probably giving him a sweeper to round out his arsenal.

Washington Nationals

Overview: Taking the top-ranked player on our board with the first overall pick is a good start to a draft. Taking him with enough of a cut to load up on high-upside preps later in the draft is a great one. These high-upside preps are Landon Harmon, who will likely soon throw triple digits with a potentially plus slider, Miguel Sime Jr., who already does throw triple digits, and Coy James, who “looks the part” but also has some interesting damage potential (yes, the Ghost of Mike Rizzo Past is still looming over these picks, but it seems to be the part of Rizzo’s scouting processes that we like.) Sandwiched in between the preps is Ethan Petry, who has struggled at times but has the upside of a first base masher. Boston Smith has some contact questions but has the chase rates, EVs, and fly ball rates to profile as a true-outcome bat at a few different positions. Julian Tonghini has an upshot fastball and a mid-80s gyro slider, and Riley Maddox has a five-pitch mix with a metrically-friendly sweeper. They used some of their last picks to select relatively famous names, such as Tucker Biven, Jacob Walsh, and Levi Huesman. Huesman is probably the most interesting of these names—while the stuff hasn’t ticked up since high school, it’s still a weird look.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: I’m not convinced that the Nationals are the organization to fix a player with some swing decision questions, but it’s hard to find a player in this class with good-enough contact skills who has more raw power than Jack Moroknek. The hand speed here is absurd.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overview: The Phillies’ first eight picks were all pitchers, and aside from the high-carry overslot righty Matthew Fisher, all came out of college. There’s no better way to start your draft than taking four fantastic arms in Gage Wood, Cade Obermueller, Cody Bowker, and Sean Youngerman. Wood, the most exciting of the group, recently went viral for his 19-strikeout no-hitter against Murray State in the CWS. He definitely comes with injury risk, which likely contributed to his slide to 26, but he has a firm and flat fastball from a low release that will generate whiffs. He had a mid-season mound shift that brought him around a foot closer towards the first-base side, and increased CB swings by doing so. Obermueller has a sub-5’ release height, and his fastball gets in on hitters quickly, a culmination of big velocity, lots of armside action, and his crossfire release. Cody Bowker, James Tallon, and Brian Walters are, you guessed it, super low-release guys as well with relatively east-west arsenals. Sean Youngerman has a whippy arm action and a fastball that should sit 18”+ IVB with the MLB ball, also featuring a tight slider and changeup. This was a super pitching-heavy draft, but the Phillies really went all-out in terms of ceiling here.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Gabe Craig is a two-pitch guy out of Baylor, featuring a four-seamer and a sweeper. He gets around the ball well, so adding another breaker should be a priority to give his arsenal starter potential. His sweeper gets 17” of gloveside sweep with good velocity and depth. Generates huge whiff and chase numbers. The four-seamer caught too much plate last season, but he’s up to 97 with plus lift. One of many solid arms headed to Philly.

Central

Milwaukee Brewers

Overview: The Brewers implemented the strategy that has become synonymous with the organization in recent years, selecting as many prep players as possible, even on what used to be Day 3. This was afforded partially by underslotting Andrew Fischer, a gamer who might not hit velocity or play third base but pulls a lot of fly balls (yes, the final product could look something like Rhys Hoskins if everything clicks.) Brady Ebel is a likely third baseman who has shown impressive hit and power markers at times. J.D. Thompson and Frank Cairone, while from different demographics, have both shown VAA traits from undersized frames, with Cairone standing out for his spin traits. Jacob Morrison also has impressive carry and extension, but from a much higher release height. Keeping with the trend of carry fastballs, Joshua Flores is an quality mover with a carry fastball and power breaker that has looked like a deathball at times. Rounding out this run of arms is Sean Episcope, an Ivy League product who missed most of this season but has impressive breaking ball capabilities. Daniel Dickinson is a contact-and-pull second baseman, and Josiah Ragsdale is a speedy outfielder who could increase intent in his swing. Hayden Vucinovich is another cold-weather prep arm with good release/extension traits and a fastball that gets into the mid-90s. Andrew Healy was a big-name prep who can get into the mid-90s from the left side, but the fastball and slider shapes will need some tweaking, and Braylon Owens has some VAA traits in the low-90s. The remnants of Day 3 were highlighted with high-upside preps; CJ Hughes is young for the class with bat speed and some defensive chops, and Cooper Underwood has projection, spin traits, and a deceptive fastball. Dominic Cadiz is a late-rising prep corner masher, which gives him all different kinds of risk, but it’s a fun gamble late in the draft.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Gavin Lauridsen is a classic Brewers pick, a prep righty bumping 96 with good carry and a ton of extension. We’ll have to see how the breakers develop—he doesn’t spin his secondaries a ton at present—but this is the sort of thing Milwaukee can maximize (most of this blurb applies to a ton of people in this draft—you can take your pick with most of the preps).

St. Louis Cardinals

Overview: The Cards swooped up our number-one ranked pitcher in the class with the fifth pick, and Doyle isn’t the only exciting arm they selected. They grabbed an athletic and twitchy prep bat in Ryan Mitchell with their second selection, went back for another hard-throwing Tennessee Volunteer in Tanner Franklin (T101.2), and rounded off Day 1 with Jake Gurevitch, a huge EV darling with launch optimization tweaks to come. Although the Chaim Bloom regime has not technically commenced, he certainly influenced the unusual route the Cardinals went in terms of pitching in this draft. Of the 11 D-1 arms they selected, all but two topped out at 96 mph or harder, with six averaging at least 19”+ of induced vertical break on their heaters. It’s clear that the Cardinals prioritized fastball traits, but specifically the combination of high velocity and induced movement from lower launches. So far this year, the big-league club ranks 29th in IVB despite having the second-highest average release height among all teams. They’ve targeted pitchers with lower and flatter arm slots who are still able to get behind the ball and wield highly efficient fastballs, most of them coming with big velocity. Franklin has the makeup of a solid starter if he can develop a reliable breaking ball despite his pronation bias. Cade Crossland’s changeup returned one of the highest whiff rates in college baseball last season, and the near six-mph gap between his average and maximum fastball velocity shows signs of potential. The arms stole the show, but their crop of bats is a group with a great feel for the zone and provides depth to the system.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Kaden Echeman has an absolutely absurd 40-inch vertical separation between his fastball and curve, and bridges the two with a cutter, copycat changeup, and a big sweeper. He effectively encapsulates their fastball trait tendency, pairing elite ride and a flat approach angle from a lower release with the potential to reach the upper end of his velocity range.

Chicago Cubs

Overview: Ethan Conrad represented the first non-infielder or pitcher selected in the 2025 class, but he likely would’ve risen above the 17th slot in which he was selected had he not undergone season-ending shoulder surgery in April. He makes the most of his aerial contact, although some adjustments to his spray distribution would be beneficial. Kane Kepley was a somewhat surprising pick, but his plus speed, agility, and awareness in center boosted his stock despite his poor raw and game power. Righties Dominick Reid and Kaleb Wing headlined Chicago’s crop of pitchers, 10 of whom came out of college. Reid and ninth-rounder Colton Book extend more than seven feet down the mound, but the story of their pitching class is more breaking-ball focused. Fifth-rounder Kade Snell is an absolute dude, with fantastic swing decisions, great bat-to-ball with exit velos up to 112, and a demonstrated ability to lift hard contact. Four of their five college bats, including Snell, posted elite in-zone contact rates (92%+), but Conrad seems to be the only guy with intense game power that will translate at the next level.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Nate Williams is a righty who gets plus-plus lift on a fastball that’s already up to 98, also extending far down the mound and releasing from a tall and incredibly steep angle. His curveball has an abrupt zone entrance at a respectable velocity range, and was a major whiff-inducer for Williams last season. The high fastball efficiency suggests that a changeup could be the right fit as a third offering, and due to his extreme over-the-top release, extreme depth wouldn’t be necessary to play off the fastball well.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overview: The Pirates have recently found success with prep pitchers Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, and based on their first two picks, are trying to replicate that success (they are also trying to replicate the success of Jared Jones by drafting another guy named Jared Jones, but he is a first base masher with questionable contact skills who cemented himself in LSU history with clutch home runs.) The two prep arms are Seth Hernandez, who doesn’t have the fastball traits of Jones or Chandler but throws hard with a great changeup, and Angel Cervantes, who is committed to attend UCLA. Murf Gray is a corner masher with good contact skills who traded some contact for damage last season and went nuclear in conference play. Easton Carmichael is another Cape performer with a blend of contact and raw power, although the spray angles aren’t maximized to reach it in-game. Gustavo Melendez is a Puerto Rican prep with fluidity in both the swing and defensive actions, although it remains to be seen if he can generate enough power. He was not the only international player—hit-over-power infielder Brent Iredale is from Australia and high-carry prep arm Connor Hamilton is from Canada, although both played in the US this spring. Adonys Guzman is a good defensive catcher with fringy-to-solid swing decisions, contact, and raw power, although he’ll need to hit fewer balls to center field to hit for meaningful game power. Josh Tate, Matt King, and Dylan Palmer are all hit-over-power college bats. McLane Moody is another high-carry prep into the mid-90s. Eddie King Jr. was a star for Louisville in their run to Omaha, but it remains to be seen if he can make enough contact to hit as a pro.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Dylan Mathiesen doesn’t throw hard and he’s a bit undersized, but he’s a good mover and has a two-plane run/ride fastball from a funky low arm angle. There’s also the makings of a good sweeper and changeup, although those pitches lag behind the fastball at present.

Cincinnati Reds

Overview: A couple of drafts back, the Reds selected Cam Collier, who was very young for the class. The shape of Steele Hall’s production is different—he’s a speedster who has made recent swing improvements—but he’s also very young for the level. Aaron Watson is another prep, this time an arm with an interesting slider. Mason Morris is super interesting; he changed his arm angle entering 2025 and it resulted in him having one of the best breaking balls in the class (a true slurve at 87 mph) to pair with a now-mid-90s fastball and low-90s cutter. Mason Neville has fringy contact skills given the in-zone passivity, but his above-average exit velocities and feel to pull fly balls led to a ton of in-game power. Eli Pitts’ bat path might not catch up to higher velocities, but he has a ton of raw bat speed. Braden Osbolt has some of the highest strike rates of any pitcher in college across his arsenal: The sinker, slider, and changeup return absurd chase rates, but the four-seam is not optimized and nothing stands out from a stuff perspective. Kyle McCoy is somewhat similar from the left side, but the strike rates aren’t as high. Justin Hentschel has a mid-90s fastball with some carry, but the higher slot and low extension might hurt it. His best pitch is a mid-80s gyro slider. Ty Doucette is the most interesting of the later bats; he has a fun combination of contact and exit velocities but is an aggressive hitter with below-average batted ball distributions. Carson Latimer can be a high slot sinker/sweeper arm with some pitch design work, and Andrew Shaffner has a low/mid-90s sweeper. Maison Martinez doesn’t get very far down the mound, but he has a mid-90s carry fastball, a mid/upper-80s slutter, and the potential for an interesting curveball in the low/mid-80s.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Brady Afthim worked as a reliever for UConn, but has just enough pitches and strikes to project as a starter in pro ball. His mid-90s fastball has some slight VAA traits, and his two main secondaries are a straight changeup with 10 mph off the fastball and a slurvy breaker in the low-80s. He flashes a mid-80s cutter with some depth and cut, although this might get turned into more of a true cutter or gyro in pro ball.

West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overview: The D’Backs kicked off their draft by selecting our 18th-overall player, Kayson Cunningham, at 18. Cunningham boasts elite plate coverage, plus bat-to-ball, and a good feel for the zone. He currently profiles as a line-drive-heavy hitter, but the barrel accuracy shows signs of projectable game power. They then went with Patrick Forbes and Brian Curley, two college arms who topped out at 100 and had good release-relative ride on their heaters. Forbes worked primarily in the top of the zone with his fastball, but used it as more of a strike stealer and damage suppressor in certain counts. Curley has four trustworthy offerings and compensated for waning fastball shape as he got deeper into his starts by utilizing his fastball similarly to Forbes. Dean Livingston has bumped 96 and has the makings of a plus slider down the road, although the fastball needs some work. Sawyer Hawks and Luke Dotson have two of the highest arm angles in college baseball, and their backspinning fastballs allow the rest of their north-south arsenals to produce good swing and miss. This was a very pitching-heavy draft for Arizona, and a lot of the top-end talent looks promising.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Tayler Montiel, a southpaw out of Tulane, throws on the far first-base side of the rubber from a three-quarters slot and is up to 98 on the fastball. The slider has flashed both gyro and sweeping action, but more velocity is needed if it bleeds towards that 0/0 movement zone. The changeup and sinker both get tons of armside run, and despite killing minimal vert and velocity on the change, it still garnered plenty of whiffs and chases last season and will likely continue to, especially if that velocity interval increases.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Overview: The Dodgers started their draft by selecting two higher-floor picks from Arkansas: Zach Root, a starter with an average mix but some deception, and Charles Davalan, an undersized gamer with a little more pop than someone would think. Cam Leiter—yes, of the Leiter family—missed this season with an elbow injury, but has thrown in the mid/upper-90s with three good secondaries, even if the fastball traits leave something to be desired. Landyn Vidourek is an elite athlete with a passive approach, a lot of pulled fly balls, and plus raw power. He will swing and miss some, especially against offspeeds, but this is the type of profile the Dodgers can squeeze a little bit of contact from and create valuable players. Aiden West and Mason Ligenza are two fun Mid-Atlantic prep bats: West is a likely third baseman with some impressive power markers, and Ligenza is a projection bat at 6-foot-5/197 lbs. Davion Hickson is a guy I was hoping would end up in a progressive organization; he was inconsistent last year but has a low/mid-90s fastball with VAA traits when it’s on, a baby sweeper at 83, and a changeup. Jack O’Connor was a top prep prospect who matriculated to Virginia and missed time with injuries (teams with low slot money take these swings), but he’s been up to 98 with some pitch design work on the way. Jacob Frost has some VAA traits from the left side, Dylan Tate hasn’t pitched much but has a mid-90s fastball, and Robby Porco is a huge power arm, albeit with little strikethrowing. Logan Lunceford and Davis Chastain are both fastball carry darlings—north of 20” IVB for both, with Lunceford having the college performance (at least in terms of K-BB%) and Chastain having the makings of a depth-y changeup.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Mason Estrada could probably coach—he was an aerospace engineering major at MIT—but for now he’s a two-pitch arm with a baby sweeper at 86 and fastball with some VAA traits in the mid-90s. The development of the rest of the arsenal will determine his ceiling, but there’s some really fun stuff to work with.

San Francisco Giants

Overview: We’re not sure anyone in the industry knew what to expect from Buster Posey’s first draft. It was, frankly, boring in a bad way; they took almost all college players with big numbers, including—for some reason we can’t precisely ascertain—three players from Northeastern, which, notwithstanding Mike Sirota and Cam Schlittler, is not a typical hotbed of talent. Sitting at pick no. 13, San Francisco went with Gavin Kilen, the Tennessee infielder. We had Kilen as a late first-rounder jack-of-all-trades type infielder, which makes him a defensible if uninspiring pick in the middle of the round. Third-rounder Trevor Cohen was arguably the oddest pick of Day 1: The Rutgers outfielder hit a BABIP-driven .387 but profiled as more of a fifth-to-eighth rounder even amongst those we talked to who liked him; he signed for around 90% of slot, so it wasn’t even a real savings pick. They did hand a near-$750k bonus to ninth-round prep arm Reid Worley, who shows real spin capabilities, but otherwise it’s an awful lot of “college performers” without obvious carrying tools. Lorenzo Meola’s defense at shortstop gives him some wiggle room, at least.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: If we’re solely doing Guy Remembrance, it’s Rod Barajas Jr., a junior college catcher. On merit, it’s 12th-rounder Cody Delvecchio, who had a troubled junior season (6.81 ERA and missed much of the season with eligibility issues) but has an interesting fastball with tons of vert.

San Diego Padres

Overview: The Padres did what the Padres usually do, taking an athletic prep in Kruz Schoolcraft with their first pick. If they develop him as an arm, there are some directional similarities to Kash Mayfield (lefty, changeup is a standout pitch, name starts with the letter “K” when it shouldn’t, etc.). They popped not one, but two high school catchers. Ty Harvey is old for the class (it’s really not a great demographic to be a 19-year-old prep catcher), and the swing can be grooved, but there are some hit and power markers. Truitt Madonna is a cold-weather catcher who is showing impressive game power in the Draft League. Ryan Wideman is a 6-foot-5 center fielder with double plus speed and good exit velocities, and also some of the highest chase and ground ball rates in college. Michael Salina throws a fastball getting into the triple digits with a baby sweeper in the mid-80s that touches higher, but is currently injured. Much of the rest of the class was spent affording the high schoolers: Five of the first 10 picks were college seniors, including Jaxon Dalena, a good mover whose fastball has been up to 97 with some good traits, and Kerrington Cross, who pulled-and-lifted his way to winning the Big 12 Player of the Year award.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: Dylan Grego is prone to expanding the zone, especially against secondaries, but has a really interesting combination of contact and hand speed from the left side, where he should probably be hitting full time. The Padres seem to think they’ve unlocked something with improving plate discipline, and if they’re correct, this class has extremely high upside.

Colorado Rockies

Overview: Rockies drafts are just not for us. They like famous guys and tools, but specifically in the way tools were evaluated during the early Obama administration. It was extremely unsurprising that they took Ethan Holliday at no. 4 and even more unsurprising that he looks to be getting the biggest bonus of the class. He may or may not be able to hit, but has some of the biggest power upside in the class (and is the most famous player in the draft by a mile). Second-rounder JB Middleton was a very shrewd pick that has a number of pitch characteristics we like a lot—a lower release fastball with carry potential, a usable hard slider, a change he should probably throw more—though the Rockies have among the worst records of any organization for converting this kind of interesting trait profile into a good major-league starter. After taking Jared Thomas last year, they went back to the star Texas outfielder well this year for Max Belyeu, who may light up the hitter-friendly parks in Colorado’s system just like Thomas, but lacks a clear standout hitting ability. We expect third-rounder Ethan Hedges to do much the same; he does have a better-than-plus tool (great!) but it’s his arm (the one that has by far the least on-field value). With Holliday’s overslot bonus and no big cuts elsewhere early, the Rockies didn’t have much money, and they didn’t take a single prep after the first round. Down the board, Austin Newton has a sinker/slider combo that might work in Coors, and Zach Harris throws in the mid-90s from a weird slot. Maybe there’s something there.

Favorite Day 2 Pick: This is slimmer pickings than most teams with how the Rockies draft. Sixth-rounder Matt Klein missed about half the season with a broken wrist and really didn’t play a lot in college at all—though he did perform well with wood on the Cape—but when healthy he’s shown a quick lefty swing with some bat-to-ball, and he should stick behind the dish. The recent history of Louisville catchers (including Dalton Rushing, Henry Davis, and Will Smith) is interesting if nothing else.