In a recent article about the 1967 Boston Red Sox, I wrote that the team’s 20-win improvement was not particularly unusual. I had spent a few minutes convincing myself that there were a few other teams in neighboring seasons that accomplished the feat, but made no attempt to determine how common it was, or whether the 1960s were particularly unique in this regard. This article delves into the topic quite a bit further, presenting an historical survey of the phenomenon, while contemplating patterns that might help us figure out who is most likely to leap forward this year.
Joe Sheehan offers a darkhorse candidate to replace Derek Jeter, defends Boston’s bullpen set-up, and chronicles the exploits of a free man.
It’s amazing how quickly I can go from sitting on the couch watching game after game after game, cold beer never far from my lips, to full on working the phones. It’s funny that there’s now two phases to how I write–first, I make the outgoing calls to the usual suspects, but now I’m also getting a significant amount of incoming calls, pages, and emails. During my first call to my Yankees source–and note, many U.S.-issued cell phones don’t work in Canada–I probably had three calls coming in. In the first few hours of a “big story” like Phil Nevin or Derek Jeter, I make more outgoing calls, but by morning the ratio completely reverses. It’s an interesting experience. Thanks to all the readers who alerted me (I was watching, but thanks) and offered their takes. On to the injuries:
Nate Silver examines PECOTA’s five-year forecasts. Guess who PECOTA picks as baseball’s MVP over the next five years. You’ll be surprised.
Derek Zumsteg suggests an alternative to Major League Baseball’s toothless drug policy, and a better use for Pete Rose’s services.
The Red Sox and Yankees on the aftermath of last night’s mishaps, Rob Dibble has a new appreciation for performance analysis, Scott Boras discusses Josh Beckett’s paralyzing fear of Jeff Torb…er…blisters, and Jose Contreras and Miguel Tejada announce plans to pull their pants up to their chests and move to Florida.
The cheapskate A’s finally get off their butts and spend some money, inking reigning MVP and world’s best shortstop Miguel Tejada to a five-year, $58.5 million deal. GM Billy Beane turns attention to locking up Frank Menechino for the next five years.
The best division in the National League features three solid playoff contenders, and two teams that might be no more than a year away.
Derek Jeter could be out a long time, it’s a bad 2003 so far for closers, and no UTK would be complete without the requisite pickle juice and urine reference.
Keith Woolner takes a second look at OBP, righting a big wrong in the process.
Doug Pappas takes Andrew Zimbalist to task for his latest ill-informed sputtering on baseball, and praises Commissioner Bud Selig’s efforts to save the game.
The miracles of revenue-sharing save the cash-strapped, small-market Angels, in the spring, a manager’s fancy turns to thoughts of manufacturing runs, and we had April 5 in the pool for the first misguided comparison of performance analysis to rotisserie leagues.
It’s Opening Night. It doesn’t have the same ring or even the same importance as “Opening Day,” but it’s still nice to see games that count. It’s fun to see the season open with something like a Doug Glanville full-count walk or a couple sac bunts in the first inning. Oy, baseball is a long season, but this we don’t need. At least Alex Rodriguez went deep. Even better, the game looks great on the big screen and I’m ready–beer, chips and salsa, and coffee–for the 12-hour orgy of baseball that will be my Monday.
Last year, I introduced a new measure of a team’s efficiency: marginal dollars per marginal win. An article by Michael Lewis in the March 30 New York Times Magazine excerpted from his forthcoming Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, used my analysis to illustrate how Oakland gets so much more performance than other teams out of its low payroll.
BP’s authors shoot the breeze, giving their takes on their surprising AL West unanimity, the wide-open NL Central, the viability of Vlad for MVP and Mark Prior for Cy Young, and more.
This will be a transition year in the NL Central, as the teams that
have been
at the top for years cede control to a pair of up-and-comers. Don’t
worry,
though: Those of you desiring sameness can still take comfort in the
Brewers.