Philadelphia Phillies sign RHP Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract.
The first domino of the winter free agent market has fallen, with Nola coming home to Philadelphia and making it relatively likely that the Phillies’ is the only MLB cap he ever wears. The nine-year veteran is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, with just the second over-4.00 ERA he’s ever posted, belying what DRA- saw as a more or less standard year for him (83 DRA- last year, 76 for his career). His struggles with run prevention, however—and the 32 home runs against that produced that issue—only serve to highlight a dependability few contemporary pitchers can match. In every full-length season since 2017 Nola has produced at least four WARP, an achievement no other pitcher can boast (though even excepting 2020, Nola would need three more consecutive four-WARP campaigns to touch Clayton Kershaw’s 2009-2017 streak). The Phillies are betting the streak will continue, for at least a few more years.
What makes a 4.46 ERA? For a lot of pitchers who underperform, a culprit would be BABIP. Nola’s .286 BABIP in 2023, however, was actually eight points lower than his career rate, and 11 points better than league average. He got fewer balls on the ground (42.6%) than typical for his career, but that trend began a few years ago, concurrent with the righty becoming one of the most strikeout-happy starters around. In 2023, though, Nola posted the worst strikeout rate (25.5%) since the 2016 campaign that was curtailed by an elbow strain, though it’s worth noting that rate is still comfortably above league average. He carried forward the stinginess with the walks that’s characterized his last few seasons, though he did issue free passes at a rate more than half again as he did in 2022. None of that might have been expected to produce a 4.46 ERA, however, and in fact still describes a well-above average pitcher. It was just the long flies.
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