Biographical

Portrait of Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola PPhillies

Phillies Player Cards | Phillies Team Audit | Phillies Depth Chart

2016 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 23)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
5.3 3.63 1.24 5 0 0 0 0.0
Birth Date6-4-1993
Height6' 2"
Weight195 lbs
Age23 years, 3 months, 21 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2012
2013
2014
1.62015
3.82016
+proj
DRA-Based WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA WARP
2015 PHI MLB 13 13 77.7 6 2 0 74 19 68 11 .260 97 8.6 2.2 1.3 7.9 50% .289 .255 1.20 4.06 3.59 91 3.38 1.6
2016 PHI MLB 20 20 111.0 6 9 0 116 29 121 10 .262 92 9.4 2.4 0.8 9.8 57% .334 .270 1.31 3.10 4.78 75 2.37 3.8
CareerMLB3333188.7121101904818921.261949.12.31.09.054%.316.2641.263.494.29812.785.4

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA
2014 CLR A+ 7 6 31.3 2 3 0 24 5 30 4 .255 98 6.9 1.4 1.1 8.6 34% .247 .216 0.93 3.61 3.16
2014 REA AA 5 5 24.0 2 0 0 25 5 15 4 .255 105 9.4 1.9 1.5 5.6 49% .284 .252 1.25 4.90 2.62
2015 PHI MLB 13 13 77.7 6 2 0 74 19 68 11 .260 97 8.6 2.2 1.3 7.9 50% .289 .255 1.20 4.06 3.59
2015 REA AA 12 12 76.7 7 3 0 59 9 59 4 .250 106 6.9 1.1 0.5 6.9 45% .259 .208 0.89 2.88 1.88
2015 LEH AAA 6 6 32.7 3 1 0 38 9 33 3 .252 92 10.5 2.5 0.8 9.1 52% .365 .266 1.44 3.16 3.58
2016 PHI MLB 20 20 111.0 6 9 0 116 29 121 10 .262 92 9.4 2.4 0.8 9.8 57% .334 .270 1.31 3.10 4.78

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2015 1111 0.4689 0.4320 0.7833 0.5662 0.3136 0.8746 0.6378 0.2167
2016 1786 0.4972 0.4155 0.7493 0.5124 0.3196 0.8484 0.5923 0.2507
Career28970.48630.42180.76230.5330.31730.85840.60970.2377

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2016 PHI $517,500
2015 PHI $
YearsDescriptionSalary
2011Current$517,500
1 yrTotal$517,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 76 dParagon Sports1 year/$0.5175M (2016)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.5175M (2016). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/16.
  • 1 year (2015). Contract selected by Philadelphia 7/21/15.
  • Drafted by Philadelphia 2014 (1-7) (LSU). $3.3009M signing bonus (slot amount).

2016 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 3/15/2015 05:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 8.2 7.7 0 26 26 158.5 117 31 139 15 .258 0.93 2.39 2.6 43.1 4.7
80o 7.9 8.1 0 26 26 151.2 119 32 133 15 .271 1.00 2.72 2.95 37.3 4.1
70o 7.7 8.4 0 26 26 146.1 120 32 129 15 .281 1.05 2.95 3.21 33.1 3.6
60o 7.6 8.7 0 26 26 141.8 122 33 125 15 .289 1.09 3.16 3.43 29.6 3.2
50o 7.4 9 0 26 26 137.8 123 33 121 16 .297 1.13 3.35 3.65 26.1 2.8
40o 7.2 9.3 0 26 26 133.9 123 33 118 16 .304 1.17 3.55 3.86 22.8 2.5
30o 7.1 9.6 0 26 26 129.7 124 33 114 16 .312 1.21 3.76 4.09 19.3 2.1
20o 6.8 9.9 0 26 26 125.0 125 33 110 16 .322 1.27 4.01 4.36 15.3 1.7
10o 6.5 10.4 0 26 26 118.5 126 34 104 16 .335 1.34 4.37 4.75 9.7 1.0
Weighted Mean7.4902626137.71213312115.2951.123.333.6226.62.9

2016 Rest-of-Season Forecast

Last Update: 9/25/2016 11:52 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 0.3 0.3 0 1 1 18.9 15 4 17 2 .265 1.03 2.69 2.87 1.0 0.1
80o 0.3 0.3 0 1 1 14.0 12 3 13 1 .278 1.10 3.00 3.21 0.8 0.1
70o 0.3 0.3 0 1 1 10.7 10 3 10 1 .288 1.15 3.24 3.46 0.7 0.1
60o 0.3 0.4 0 1 1 7.9 7 2 7 1 .296 1.20 3.44 3.67 0.5 0.1
50o 0.3 0.4 0 1 1 5.3 5 1 5 1 .304 1.24 3.63 3.88 0.4 0.0
40o 0.3 0.4 0 1 1 2.8 3 1 3 0 .311 1.29 3.82 4.08 0.3 0.0
30o 0.3 0.4 0 1 1 0.2 0 0 0 0 .320 1.34 4.02 4.3 0.2 0.0
Weighted Mean0.30.40114.95141.3021.233.613.860.40.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate MLB %
23% 55% 19% 20% 83%

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2017249902727163144381422048.2911.123.894.348.02.17.81.11.6
2018259902828170150381502148.2931.113.784.228.02.08.01.11.9
2019269802727159138341431948.2911.083.754.187.81.98.11.11.8
2020279802727161142351441948.2941.103.694.117.92.08.01.12.0
2021288802626154135341411948.2941.103.714.147.92.08.21.11.9
2022298802525149134321321848.2961.113.794.238.11.98.01.11.7
2023308802525146130301301848.2961.103.724.158.01.98.01.11.8
2024317702121125111271121648.2941.113.874.318.01.98.11.21.3
2025326602020115102241021448.2951.103.784.218.01.98.01.11.3

Long-Term Forecast Based on RoS PECOTA (Beyond the 2016 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201724111003232207194502032148.3221.183.453.858.42.28.80.92.8
201825111003232204192492012148.3241.183.443.848.52.28.90.92.8
20192610903030184170421851948.3201.153.383.778.32.19.00.92.7
20202710802929175161391791748.3221.143.223.598.32.09.20.92.9
2021288702424144132341501548.3241.163.323.708.32.19.40.92.3
2022298802525149146341481748.3321.213.553.968.82.18.91.02.0
20233010803030185182371851748.3371.183.103.468.81.89.00.83.3
2024316601919112106271181548.3261.193.714.148.52.29.51.21.3
2025327602121122119311211448.3291.233.654.078.82.39.01.01.5

Upside By Year

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
out of baseball281.49.43.827.6

Previous Year Preseason Upside By Year

Yr Proj 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PEAK 5
2015out of baseball281.49.43.827.6

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 83)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 91 Shelby Miller 2014 3.84
2 90 Brian Matusz 2010 4.51
3 89 Tommy Hunter 2010 3.87
4 89 Alex Wood 2014 3.04
5 89 Carlos Villanueva 2007 4.09
6 88 Rubby De La Rosa 2012 27.00
7 88 Gerrit Cole 2014 3.78
8 87 Patrick Corbin 2013 3.50
9 87 Matt Garza 2007 4.77
10 87 Brandon McCarthy 2007 5.49
11 87 Mike Minor 2011 4.25
12 87 Jair Jurrjens 2009 2.97
13 86 Carlos Martinez 2015 3.26
14 85 Drew Hutchison 2014 4.48
15 85 Tyler Skaggs 2015 0.00 DNP
16 85 Robbie Erlin 2014 4.99
17 85 Drew Pomeranz 2012 5.31
18 85 Phil Hughes 2009 3.24
19 85 Jacob Turner 2014 6.45
20 84 Julio Teheran 2014 3.34
21 84 David Price 2009 5.05
22 84 Sean Gallagher 2009 7.32
23 84 Marco Gonzales 2015 13.50
24 84 Brett Cecil 2010 4.53
25 84 Jason Vargas 2006 8.16
26 84 Chad Bettis 2012 0.00 DNP
27 83 Kevin Gausman 2014 3.81
28 83 Alex Sanabia 2012 0.00 DNP
29 83 Johnny Cueto 2009 4.73
30 83 Liam Hendriks 2012 6.43
31 83 Josh Johnson 2007 9.77
32 83 Rudy Owens 2011 0.00 DNP
33 83 Yordano Ventura 2014 3.44
34 83 Chad Gaudin 2006 3.38
35 82 Andy Oliver 2011 6.52
36 82 Justin Verlander 2006 3.77
37 82 Danny Duffy 2012 4.23
38 82 Juan Oramas 2013 0.00 DNP
39 82 Marcus Stroman 2014 3.86
40 82 Jon Gray 2015 5.75
41 82 James Simmons 2010 0.00 DNP
42 82 Jhoulys Chacin 2011 4.04
43 82 Brett Oberholtzer 2013 3.27
44 82 Ian Krol 2014 6.34
45 82 Ben Lively 2015 0.00 DNP
46 82 Scott Mathieson 2007 0.00 DNP
47 82 Daniel Hudson 2010 2.45
48 82 Adam Morgan 2013 0.00 DNP
49 82 Jake McGee 2010 1.80
50 82 Jon Niese 2010 5.03
51 82 Hector Rondon 2011 0.00 DNP
52 82 Yovani Gallardo 2009 3.78
53 82 A.J. Cole 2015 10.61
54 81 Matt Magill 2013 8.13
55 81 Matt Harvey 2012 2.88
56 81 Michael Bowden 2010 5.28
57 81 Nick Maronde 2013 10.12
58 81 Martin Perez 2014 4.38
59 81 Joe Wieland 2013 0.00 DNP
60 81 Madison Bumgarner 2013 3.04
61 81 Wade LeBlanc 2008 8.02
62 81 Scott Olsen 2007 6.78
63 81 Alex Cobb 2011 3.59
64 81 Adam Warren 2011 0.00 DNP
65 81 Drew Smyly 2012 4.35
66 81 Zach Duke 2006 4.85
67 81 Yusmeiro Petit 2008 4.63
68 81 Randall Delgado 2013 4.56
69 81 Kyle Drabek 2011 6.18
70 81 Boone Whiting 2013 0.00 DNP
71 81 Sean Nolin 2013 40.50
72 81 Eric Surkamp 2011 6.08
73 81 Jordan Zimmermann 2009 5.03
74 81 Adam Miller 2008 0.00 DNP
75 81 Kyle Hendricks 2013 0.00 DNP
76 81 Derek Holland 2010 4.71
77 81 Vance Worley 2011 3.21
78 81 Jameson Taillon 2015 0.00 DNP
79 81 Brandon Maurer 2014 5.04
80 81 Simon Castro 2011 0.00 DNP
81 81 Charles Brewer 2011 0.00 DNP
82 80 Dan Straily 2012 4.35
83 80 Matt Andriese 2013 0.00 DNP
84 80 Nick Tropeano 2014 4.98
85 80 Carl Edwards Jr 2015 5.79
86 80 Trevor Bell 2010 5.16
87 80 Kyle Gibson 2011 0.00 DNP
88 80 Sean Gilmartin 2013 0.00 DNP
89 80 Trevor Rosenthal 2013 2.99
90 80 Tony Cingrani 2013 3.18
91 80 Jay Jackson 2011 0.00 DNP
92 80 C.J. Riefenhauser 2013 0.00 DNP
93 80 Christian Friedrich 2011 0.00 DNP
94 80 Burch Smith 2013 6.44
95 80 Erasmo Ramirez 2013 5.47
96 80 Brandon Hynick 2008 0.00 DNP
97 80 Edwin Escobar 2015 0.00 DNP
98 80 Michael Pineda 2012 0.00 DNP
99 80 Kevin Slowey 2007 5.26
100 80 Casey Kelly 2013 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .310 .360 .474 .301
11 vs R (Multi) .212 .260 .358 .226
18 Split (Multi) .098 .100 .117 .074
19 LgAvg (Multi) .009 .023 .019 .016
30 vs L (2015) .310 .360 .474 .301
31 vs R (2015) .212 .260 .358 .226
38 Split (2015) .098 .100 .117 .074
39 LgAvg (2015) .009 .024 .022 .017

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2016 Nola emerged from behind the curtain of the minor leagues as-advertised: a lanky, command-the-zone-and-conquer righty who won't throw 96, but who will feature three plus pitches just the same. He sits 91-92 mph with his fastball, which doesn't generate a ton of whiffs but moves enough to prevent square contact, and flips a two-plane curve that does have opposing hitters chopping air more often. His changeup is probably the most show-me of those pitches, but Nola still commands it well enough to keep a bit of lingering doubt in the minds of most foes. The next challenge is length, as he was only permitted to touch 100 pitches—on the nose, at that—in one of his 13 major-league starts. With good sequencing, there's little doubt Nola's stuff will hold up into a third trip through an order, though how quickly he reaches the point of consistently getting there in starts is to be determined. For 2016, he's the Phillies' staff ace, even if he'll probably perform more like a no. 2 or 3 globally.
2015 What Nola lacks in size—especially compared to the typical pitcher taken in the first third of round one—he makes up for with polish. He already moves his fastball around, adds and subtracts velocity, varies his arm angle without losing mechanical consistency, and has Double-A success on his resume. What you get for such polish is, of course, a cap on the upside, and Nola has neither an overwhelming breaking pitch nor the projection to add much sizzle to his low-90s fastball. He should be pretty good, and only pretty good. Pitchers like Nola probably read complaints like these and just shake their danged heads. In conclusion: He ain't Kyle Kendrick.

BP Articles

Aaron Nola is referenced in the following articles.

BP Premium requires BP Premium access to view, BP Fantasy requires BP Premium or BP Fantasy access to view

  Title Author Date
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: DRA Do-GoodersWilson Karaman2016-08-26
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The Call-Up: Jake ThompsonJeffrey Paternostro2016-08-05
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Flags Fly Forever Podcast: Ep. 98: The Dan Vogelbach OneBret Sayre2016-07-21
Flags Fly Forever Podcast: Ep. 98: The Dan Vogelbach OneMike Gianella2016-07-21
Flags Fly Forever Podcast: Ep. 98: The Dan Vogelbach OneGeorge Bissell2016-07-21
What You Need to Know: J-Fer EffortEmma Baccellieri2016-07-19
Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Swing Big For PomeranzBen Carsley2016-07-15
Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Swing Big For PomeranzChristopher Crawford2016-07-15
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: First Half in ReviewGreg Wellemeyer2016-07-08
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessIn-Season Fantasy Valuations: Second Edition, 2016Mike Gianella2016-07-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 12Greg Wellemeyer2016-06-16
BP Unfiltered: Leading From BehindRob Mains2016-06-15
The 2014 Re-Draft: Two Years Is An EternityBaseball Prospectus2016-06-14
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Raising Aces: Instant GratificationDoug Thorburn2016-06-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessIn-Season Fantasy Valuations: First Edition, 2016Mike Gianella2016-06-03
Expert FAAB Review: Week NineMike Gianella2016-05-31
Rubbing Mud: All the Implications of Odubel HerreraMatthew Trueblood2016-05-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Draft Rankings: The Updated Top 300Mike Gianella2016-05-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week NineGreg Wellemeyer2016-05-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Draft Rankings: The Updated Top 300Bret Sayre2016-05-27
What You Need to Know: Chris Sale, ImperfectEmma Baccellieri2016-05-25
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessUpdating the Tiers: Starting PitchersMike Gianella2016-05-25
What You Need to Know: So This Is Matt Harvey?Nicolas Stellini2016-05-20
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: We're Doing it WrongMike Gianella2016-05-06
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Life at the Margins: Nola AscendingRian Watt2016-05-05
Expert FAAB Review: Week FiveMike Gianella2016-05-03
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week FiveGreg Wellemeyer2016-04-29
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Batted Balls and Team Defensive ContextWilson Karaman2016-04-13
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week TwoGreg Wellemeyer2016-04-08
2016 Prospects: The Top 175 Players 25-and-UnderChristopher Crawford2016-04-04
2016 Prospects: The Top 175 Players 25-and-UnderBP Prospect Staff2016-04-04
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2016 Prospects: The Top 175 Players 25-and-UnderMark Anderson2016-04-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessMy Model Portfolio: Spreading the Dollars and Mitigating RiskScooter Hotz2016-03-31
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessPlaying Time Battles: National League EastGreg Wellemeyer2016-03-23
Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars NL-OnlyMike Gianella2016-03-23
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Draft Rankings: The Top 300Mike Gianella2016-03-17
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Draft Rankings: The Top 300Bret Sayre2016-03-17
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Expert League Auction Recap: National League LABRMike Gianella2016-03-09
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessDynasty League Positional Rankings: The Top 175 Starting PitchersBret Sayre2016-03-03
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pitchers, Part Two: 51-125J.J. Jansons2016-03-01
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessEarly ADP Analysis: Starting PitchersGeorge Bissell2016-02-29
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part TwoMike Gianella2016-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessThe Adjuster: Starting PitchersWilson Karaman2016-02-26
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Players to Target: Starting PitchersBP Fantasy Staff2016-02-24
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Players to Avoid: First BaseBP Fantasy Staff2016-01-22
Dynasty League Rankings: The Top 50 Signees From 2015Bret Sayre2016-01-07
2016 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 ProspectsBP Prospect Staff2016-01-05
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Expert League Recap: Tout Wars NLMike Gianella2015-10-05
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Pitchers Who Put 'Em AwayWilson Karaman2015-10-02
Expert FAAB Review: Week 26Mike Gianella2015-09-29
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This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 23Wilson Karaman2015-09-04
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Better Late Than NeverJ.J. Jansons2015-08-27
This article requires BP Fantasy or Premium accessFantasy Freestyle: Raisel Iglesias on the RiseGeorge Bissell2015-08-26
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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2016-03-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of ceiling do you see for Aaron Nola?
(Nate from Indiana)
Nola's an interesting case, because he's got the command and the breaking ball already, so either he's going to miss bats (in which case he could be a No. 2) or not (in which case he'd still probably be a back-end starter). I think he's sort of in Chris Sale territory with the delivery at this point, where it's still scary-looking, but he's got the flexibility and athleticism to pull it off, so if he hasn't gotten hurt yet, I guess we're going to stop being scared. (Michael Baumann)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Which group sucks less? Anthony Alford, Rusney Castillo, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, Nick Williams,Spencer Adams, Mark Appel, Dylan Cease, Josh Hader, James Kapeielian, Triston McKenzie,Vince Velasquez or Blake Swihart, Jon Singleton, Dansby Swanson, Alex Jackson, Clayton Blackburn,Tyrell Jenkins, Rob Kaminsky, Zach Lee, Keuy Mella, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Nola, Tyler Jay. God these teams are awful.
(Clark from The 19th Hole)
The first group, but you're right, but they're both bad. (Mike Gianella)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)What players outside the top 200 are you targeting for a potential flyer?
(Truganini from CO)
To name a few: Will Myers, Josh Reddick, Aaron Nola, Rich Hill, Jayson Werth, Ben Paulsen, and Jerad Eickhoff. (Mike Gianella)
2015-07-28 18:00:00 (link to chat)Could you rank these guys for future careers? Steven Matz, Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Nola, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Vincent Velasquez. Any of these guys worry you and/or are they all in the same tier?
(ColeWhittier from Pasadena)
This is a tremendous and fun group of arms. Nola, Gonzalez, Rodon, Velasquez, E-Rod, Matz. The one who still scares me the most is Rodon. There's a good chance he doesn't fulfill his insane upside because of the command issues stemming from his delivery. While Matz and E-Rod are a tier below for me they are both very valuable arms that could be middle rotation stalwarts. (Mauricio Rubio)
2015-07-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Lots of fast risers on this list. Who are some of your best bets for continuing their ascent to the top of this list or to the majors this season? Is it high tool types such as Manuel Margot or Nick Williams or more polished types like an Aaron Nola?
(LoyalRoyal from Kansas, USA)
I can't imagine Nola goes a whole lot further up, mainly because he'll probably be in the majors before the season is out. This could easily be his last list.

Margot is a candidate to rise, as is his fellow organization-mate Rafael Devers. That guy may have the best hit tool/power combo on this list. Williams has also made great strides this season, showing a rare improvement in his approach and patience and even converting me. I've been one of the most outspoken guys against Williams in the past simply because we almost never see this kind of change from a guy this far into his development, but far be it for me to ignore it when it happens and kudos to Williams for figuring it out, at least to some extent. I'm in. (Jeff Moore)
2015-06-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Aaron Nola's upside? Any changes in your thoughts of him with the good start to the season?
(Jackman from Cheers)
It appears I was too low on him, though his contextual factors are disastrous. Seems like a real life No. 3 starter and fantasy No. 4/5 guy to me. (Ben Carsley)
2015-05-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)How soon does Aaron Nola get called up to the bigs?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
He could be up right now, and maybe even last year (although he threw a lot last season and that wouldn't have made much sense considering the Phillies were not competing). It's not going to be long, I would imagine. He was one of the more advanced arms when selected last year, and the stuff is honestly better than some give credit. I think he can be a mid-rotation guy that has 3 above-average to plus pitches. How many pitchers in the minors have an arsenal like that, along with plus command? The answer is "Not Many". I am really excited to watch him pitch in the majors. (Tucker Blair)
2015-05-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in an NL Only League and can only hold on to one, Zach Lee or Aaron Nola. Who do I keep for the rest of this season?
(TylerDurden from Paper St.)
Aaron Nola, and I don't have a damn clue about Fantasy. And our Fantasy team can attest to that. (Tucker Blair)
2015-04-29 20:00:00 (link to chat)Could Aaron Nola be up by the ASB? He is as advanced as they come and is doing Nola things with a 18/2 K:BB rate in AA with a good 2.55 ERA. Nobody could be blocking him by the trade deadline as I iamgine Hamels and Harang are gone.
(Charles from NYC)
I think we see Nola in August, but he'd probably be ready in another month or so (if he's not now). (Bret Sayre)
2015-01-08 12:00:00 (link to chat)Will Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and/or Aaron Nola be able to claim a spot in the Phillies rotation? Will either of them be league-average in that ballpark?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
I think Nola breaks with the team. Gonzalez has a shot too, but Nola was probably MLB-ready when he was drafted.

Gonzalez needs to be fully stretched out as a starter right? That takes time so AAA seems likely. I think Nola will be better than league average and Gonzalez might be a notch below. (Jeff Long)
2014-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Tyler Kolek or Aaron Nola
(Scott from AZ)
Aaron Nola. Give me the guy that is close to the majors and has a mid-rotation ceiling that is easy to envision him obtaining it. Kolek is a good talent, but that's a long way from forming. (Tucker Blair)
2014-09-10 12:00:00 (link to chat)SP Aaron Nola seems to me to be low to mid rotation starter ala Mike Leake, is that fair or is there more upside?
(Phillyguy from Iowa)
I think that is fair. Nola is a major league pitcher, no doubt about it. However, he realistic role is more of that caliber.

I do think it is important to note that he logged a ton of innings this year, and he was still able to hold his ground at AA. He's a very talented pitcher, and I think we may be underselling him at times. I loved this selection for the Phillies. Excellent pickup for them. (Tucker Blair)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)I should probably risk the Atlanta rush hour on Friday and drive up to the Gwinnett stadium to see Carlos Rodon strike out AAA-Braves, right? I'm not sure I've ever seen a grade-80 slider.
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
I love seeing prospects so I'm the wrong guy to ask. I live 20 minutes from Trenton and am very tempted to go see Aaron Nola on Friday. (Mike Gianella)
2014-09-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Aaron Nola seems to be pretty much a Mike Leake style pitcher solid but never will be great. Agree or disagree?
(mdotmorris22 from Minnesota)
Nola could miss more bats than Leake, and I believe his ceiling is a bit higher. He's got plenty of pitchability, funk, and gall. I'm a big fan, and he should be in the Phillies rotation in '15. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-08-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Jeff. Who do you think will be the first 2014 draftee to appear in the major leagues? Rodon? Nova? somebody else?
(wade from st. louis)
Either Aaron Nola or Branden Finnegan. The Phillies and Royals seem pretty hell-bent on getting something out of those guys quickly, perhaps before the general managers who drafted them no longer work for the team. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)Which players drafted today could we see up in the Majors before the end of the season?
(Sheila from Daly City, CA)
Most likel options would be Nick Burdi, Nick Howard, Aaron Nola, maybe Brandon Finnegan.

Nick Gordon going fifth overall to the Twins. (Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris)
2014-05-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)What am I missing on Aaron Nola? I haven't heard/seen anything on him going very high, but he seems to have a complete package with #2 upside, or am I overestimating him?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
I think he's closer to a really good #3 than a #2, but I don't think you're missing anything. He throws out of a low slot, doesn't have great size, and is right handed. It's a non-traditional profile that carries job security risk if you're a decision maker in charge of investing 3/4/5 million dollars in a player. I think it's as simple as that. (Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris)
2014-06-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)If you had to pick one guy out of this years draft to have the best combination of MLB impact and ETA, who would you choose and why?
(Ben from Baltimore)
Aaron Nola is the best combination of the two. He's not just a safe pick, but has some ceiling too, but should also move quickly. (Jeff Moore)
2013-11-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on two 2014 draft guys who did not pitch this summer: Aaron Nola and Mike Cederoth?
(Mario66 from Pittsburgh )
Potential first rounders. Cederoth is a BIG arm -- will sit mid- to upper-90s and carry it late, touching triple digits. Will flash a plus breaker but generally the secondaries lag. Nola is a weighty FB guy that creates a tough angle out of a low slot. CH is ahead of the breaking ball. Both might wind up in the pen but will be given the opportunity to start. (Nick J. Faleris)
2013-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who is the #2 guy for 2014 (assuming Rodon is 1), Jeff Hoffman?
(Daniel from Cambridge)
Sure, along with other super early candidates, like Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo HS, Calif.), Derek Fisher (UVA), Aaron Nola (LSU), and Nick Gordon (Olympia HS, Fla.)? (Nick Faleris)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Aaron Nola has thrown 2,966 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2015 and 2016, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2016, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (91mph) and Curve (77mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (91mph) and Change (82mph).