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Tigers (Max Scherzer) vs. Red Sox (Clay Buchholz)
PECOTA Odds of Winning: Red Sox 51.2%, Tigers 48.8%

Tigers vs. Buchholz (R)

Red Sox vs. Scherzer (R)

Austin Jackson, CF (R)

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (L)

Torii Hunter, RF (R)

Shane Victorino, RF (S)

Miguel Cabrera, 3B (R)

Dustin Pedroia, 2B (R)

Prince Fielder, 1B (L)

David Ortiz, DH (L)

Victor Martinez, DH (S)

Mike Carp, 1B (L)

Jhonny Peralta, SS (R)

Jonny Gomes, LF (R)

Don Kelly, LF (L)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (S)

Alex Avila, C (L)

Stephen Drew, SS (L)

Omar Infante, 2B (R)

Will Middlebrooks, 3B (R)

The Red Sox and Tigers finished first and second in runs scored during the regular season.

You never would’ve known it last night, as Detroit edged out Boston, 1-0, in Game One, limiting the Red Sox to just one hit behind an incredible performance from Anibal Sanchez.

Game Two could be similarly low scoring, as the Tigers are throwing their co-ace Max Scherzer, while the Red Sox counter with their highest-upside arm in Clay Buchholz.

Buchholz only threw 108 1/3 innings this season, but those innings came with a 1.74 ERA and 2.78 FIP. In his Game Three postseason start against the Rays, Buchholz went six innings and allowed three runs en route to a Boston loss.

The good news for Red Sox fans is that the majority of Detroit’s lineup—Miguel Cabrera included—has struggled against Buccholz historically. Only Peralta and Avila have hit him well.

And Buchholz will likely have to be at or near his best, as the Red Sox face a tall task in tackling Scherzer. The Tigers’ right-hander pitched seven innings of two-run ball in his Game One ALDS start against the A’s, then allowed one run in a two-inning relief stint in Game Four.

That continued a season of dominance for Baseball Prospectus’ AL Cy Young Award winner, who struck out 240 batters in 214.1 innings in the regular season, en route to a 2.74 ERA. Scherzer made two starts against the Red Sox this year, going seven innings and allowing two earned runs in each appearance while striking out a batter per inning.

Boston’s two best lefties, Ellsbury and Ortiz, have had significant success against Scherzer, as has the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia. The rest of the Red Sox starting nine has experienced significantly less success, though, which gels with Scherzer’s regular-season platoon split.

While the Red Sox have used a pretty consistent lineup when all bodies are healthy this year, we’re seeing at least two significant changes for Game Two.

The first change will come courtesy of Mike Carp, as Napoli sat against Boston’s two starts against Scherzer this year and reports indicate he will do so again today. Carp is a career 2-for-8 hitter against Scherzer, while Napoli has hit just 1-for-13 against Detroit’s co-ace.

In a more curious move, the Red Sox are also reportedly going to start Jonny Gomes over Nava despite overwhelming evidence that Scherzer throws with his right hand. Nava is just 1-for-9 in his career against Scherzer, but had Boston’s lone hit on Saturday.

And finally, after going 0-for-2 last night, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see Xander Bogaerts get the start at third base over Middlebrooks. Bogaerts walked and scored twice in the Red Sox’ Game Four win over Tampa Bay, and Middlebrooks has gone just 3-for-15 thus far in the playoffs.

The Tigers and Red Sox used four and three relievers, respectively, last night, but it should be all hands on deck for Game Two, as no reliever pitched more than an inning.

My Prediction: PECOTA is calling this one for the Red Sox ever so slightly, but unless Buchholz is lights out, it’s hard to bet against Scherzer. Behind one of baseball’s best pitchers, the Tigers will edge past Boston once again, and head home with a two-game lead.

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"despite overwhelming evidence that Scherzer throws with his right hand"

Hahaha well done. Going to the game tonight. I will report first hand data on this right-handed hypothesis.
Even with three aces ( not just two, everyone forgets the ERA champ ) it's hard to keep this Sox lineup shut out forever, and if you can't score more than one run a game...

Expecting a pitcher to throw a shutout every time out is a lot of pressure to put on a guy, even guys like verlander, scherzer & sanchez
Well, one thing for sure: Boston's bullpen looks deeper than Detroit's right now.

Benoit isn't much to be feared by the Red Sox, and they proved it with the game tying Grand Slam in the bottom of the 8th a few minutes ago.

Max Scherzer went 7 strong innings, and the bullpen quite frankly, choked big time in the 8th. They might still win this one, but they need to get over blowing this one quickly.
Great win by Boston tonight, give Ortiz and the Red Sox all the credit in the world for that, and a terrible job by Detroit's bullpen after Max Scherzer did his best by holding Boston to one run through 7 innings.

Will Detroit bounce back from a tough loss? Or will Boston take command of this 2013 ALCS as the Series switches over to Detroit for the next few games?

One thing's for sure: this Series so far is very interesting and entertaining.