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Buehrle was worth roughly 46 wins during his tenure with the White Sox. He only spent one year in Miami, and it's not like his skills disappeared. Sounds to me like you guys are underrating him a bit.
I blame Sam for saying he'd have a higher ERA than Henderson Alvarez.
The Jays lost their full rotation in the summer to injury. At basically the same time stacked. The Jays had 81 W in 2011 and 85 W in 2010. Looking at players in versus out for just next year (using past 3 year averages for a Q&D meassure): Reyes 3.7 WARP - Escobar 1.4 WARP = +2.3 WARP Johnson 2.8 WARP - Alvarez -0.3 WARP = +3.1 WARP Buehrle 1.8 WARP (replacing 0 or negative warp guys like Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Brett Cecil) = +1.8 WARP Buck 1.3 WARP - Mathis -.6 WARP = +1.9 WARP put that together and you get +9.1 WARP in one deal for next year. Note, for depth, they also added JA Happ at the end of the season and Izturis already this off season. They only really had 4 good (>1.5 WARP) guys last season (Encarnacion, Bautista, Lawrie, and Morrow). I think that is enough of an upgrade, with the rest of the roster, to put them in the 85-90 win range. Maybe not quite enough, but the off season isn't over. Also, maybe that is enough for 2nd WC - or enough to see where you are in July and add if the team seems close.
I'm changing my opinion to this.
This is also not fully accounting for the revamped bullpen which did not finish taking shape until around the trade deadline, after the Jays brought in Brad Lincoln and Schoolteacher Steve Delabar and called up Aaron Loup.