Aim For The Head: PAP^3 FAQ
6/05Analyzing PAP (Part One) Analyzing PAP (Part Two) PAP^3 is the name for the new system for measuring pitcher abuse via pitch counts introduced in Baseball Prospectus 2001. Though it shares a similar name and goal with a system previously introduced by Rany Jazayerli, it was developed independently, and replaces the older system. The two...
Aim For The Head: Simulating Catcher’s ERA
5/29During a May 14 chat session on ESPN.com, Bill James referred to my research on catcher’s game-calling and pitcher-handling, and his criticism of it. The research he refers to consists primarily of an article from Baseball Prospectus 1999 entitled "Field General or Backstop?" and a followup posted here on the BP Web site called "Catching...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Batters’ ball-in-play rates
5/07This week's question comes from Robert Shore, who asks: Like many people, I was mightily impressed by Voros McCracken's work, which strongly suggested that pitchers have essentially no effect on the conversion of balls in play to outs. It occurred to me to wonder about the converse question. Are some batters better than others in converting balls in play to base hits?
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Batters’ ball-in-play rates
5/07Starting today, we will be periodically running some of the best content from the new, super-charged Baseball Prospectus archives. Those new to BP may be reading this content for the first time. Long-time readers can rekindle old debates. We begin today with Keith Woolner's look at the conversion of balls in play into outs, from 2002. To do your own mining, go to BP's Search function. To request a specific article from the archives, e-mail jkeri@baseballprospectus.com.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Dropping the Worst Starts
5/03One common defense you hear of a pitcher–usually one of the speaker’s favorites–whose season statistics don’t quite measure up is something like: "Yeah, but if you take away the two starts when he got pounded and the manager left him in, his ERA is really good!" There’s some merit to the argument that a few...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Innings Pitched to Wins
4/01This week's question comes from A.F., who writes: I recently found an article from last season by Joe Morgan that I don't quite understand...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Innings Pitched to Wins
4/01This week’s question comes from A.F., who writes: I recently found an article from last season by Joe Morgan that I don't quite understand. The part I'm really struggling with is at the bottom where he writes: "My philosophy is that a pitcher's job is to win games. His job is not to have a...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Set Lineups
2/12This week’s question (actually, it’s an old question, but I’m just now getting around to answering it) comes from P.W., who writes: As a Red Sox fan, I enjoy watching the Jimy Williams game of pretending that everyone is a regular. It got me thinking about lineups and percentages of playing time that go to...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Kicking Off the New Year
1/15This week’s question, 2002’s first, comes from Jesse Alson-Milkman: Is there any pitcher in the history of the game who has had his strikeout rate fluctuate as wildly as Mariano Rivera has? In 1996, Rivera pitched 107 2/3 innings, striking out 130 men. By 1998, he’d dropped to a low of 36 strikeouts in 61...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: They Cringed
10/24A month ago, my column "Making Statheads Cringe" did exactly that, generating a ton of responses. Unlike most other columns, reaction to the column was sharply split, as evidenced by the following two reactions: N.J. wrote: Thanks. Outstanding article. By the way, you and BP do a terrific job. D.S. wrote: Very surprising to see...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: The Mariners
10/16Joe Sheehan, ineffectively disguising his identity with Groucho nose and glasses, asks this week’s question: Dear AFTH Guy, The Mariners tied the major-league record for wins. Looking past that, though, where do they rank historically if you look at things like run differential, or use VORP or like tools to compare them to other great...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Making Statheads Cringe
9/29This week’s question comes from N.J., who writes: I’m going to keep writing until you answer or persuade me this is a stupid question… I’d like to see a metric that evaluates what a player has actually contributed toward winning, not just how good the player is. For example, Sammy Sosa has been a terrific...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Hit-by-Pitch Rates
9/19This week’s question come from P. N., who asks: I’m an Oakland A’s fan and there’s been a lot of talk lately about how the A’s are leading both leagues in the number of batters hit by pitches. Tim Hudson has suggested that the pitching staff needs to be more aggressive in protecting the hitters....
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: Quality of Opposition
9/07This week’s question comes from Brian Canfield: While watching my beloved Rangers’ Rob Bell get shellacked by the Yankees, it occurred to me that the season that Alex Rodriguez is having is even more impressive when you realize that he doesn’t get to hit against the Rangers’ pitching staff. Conversely, the stats of the Mariners,...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: The Men In Black
8/30Let me admit up front that this week’s article is a little short on the analysis. I’m heading off to Atlanta for a family reunion this weekend, but didn’t want to leave our readers without any kind of AFTH fix to get them through the holiday weekend. So accept my apologies if this doesn’t meet...
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightAim For The Head: More Reaching on Errors
8/16My previous column on reaching-base-via-error rates for batters generated the most responses yet in the short life of this column, which I think warrants a follow-up column responding to some of the reader mail on the topic. By far the most common point made by readers was that I neglected to consider handedness when I...
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