I’m still catching up from my trip to Massachusetts, the latter part of which was spent without much access to baseball information. Seeing the standings on Tuesday was a bit of a jolt. The Cardinals had a big lead in the NL Central? The Astros are in fifth? The Rangers are in first place? The Giants, too? How long was I gone, anyway?
There are some things I haven’t had much chance to write about, and I’ll get to many of those in a Friday notes column, which I’ll write today while watching something like 13 hours of baseball. Man, I love getaway days.
Today, though, I want to write about the AL Central, or more specifically, the Chicago White Sox. Last night’s 9-6 win over the Minnesota Twins pushed the Sox into sole possession of first place in the Central. The Sox have the best run differential in the division, the best offense in the league, and the most runs scored in MLB. Their pitching staff has been effective, with the fourth-best bullpen in the league supporting a ninth-ranked rotation. Much of the latter ranking is caused by the ineffective revolving door they’ve used in the No. 5 slot. Settling on Jon Rauch might have solved that problem, but the Sox instead chose to acquire Freddy Garcia from the Mariners.
Will Carroll delves deeper into shoulder injuries. Clay Davenport provides a history lesson on pitcher’s mounds. Chris Kahrl takes a closer look at J.T. Snow. All in this edition of From The Mailbag.
The Astros remade their pitching staff in the midst of an important divisional series, all revolving around the move of Wade Miller to the DL. Miller has struggled with shoulder tendinitis for much of the season, but with the return of Andy Pettitte and the demotion of Tim Redding to the pen, the Astros decided to use the ASB to extend Miller’s rest. While the injury isn’t considered serious, Miller hasn’t pitched up to expectations. With the fifth starter slot in flux, and Jimy Williams on the hot seat, the Astros staff will be interesting to watch. Williams used Brad Lidge for a two-inning stint on Wednesday. In the Wrigley press box, there was a split among those who thought it was a move made out of desperation or inspiration.
That whole thing yesterday about Kerry Wood heading to the minors? Well, not so much. Wood will throw a simulated game on Thursday and then the decision will be made on not where, but if he will have a rehab start. There’s still some doubt about where he slots in. Manager Dusty Baker would rather use him against Milwaukee, but the medical staff thinks the St. Louis series is more likely. Either way, there’s finally a solid target for Wood’s return. Wood should be fine once he returns, but his command will be something of an issue. According to Cubs sources, the adjustments made to his delivery may cause problems with his curve. He’s working on a slurve, just in case.
How badly can cute and cuddly players hurt their team? With baseball’s new market, more than ever in recent history. If your local community pillar signs for a charitable $2.5 million, in today’s market, that’s two and a half average outfielders on short-term deals. And if your guy got signed before the market crashed…it may hurt just to think about it.
So I went through looking for guys who are killing their teams. While the Rangers paid laughable service to “flexibility” when talking about trading the hugely productive Alex Rodriguez, it’s true that when teams saddle themselves with giant unproductive contracts, it makes it much harder to build a good team on a necessarily limited budget. So here are the guys who are really grinding down their teams. Bonus points for easily replaceable position players, and guys who have huge, long contracts granted by virtue of being popular.
So who’s out there to form our team?
Stephen Randolph is channeling the spirit of Mitch Williams for the Diamondbacks. The Tigers’ recent draft record has been spotty. Zach Greinke’s looking like an ace for the Royals. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Detroit and Kansas City in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
The Padres reacted harshly to news of No. 1 draft pick Matt Bush’s arrest on underage drinking and assault charges last week, suspending him indefinitely and threatening to void his signing bonus (Bush’s assault charges have subsequently been dropped). I don’t want to minimize the stupidity of Bush’s behavior, nor to suggest that the Padres would have been better served by adopting a boys-will-be-boys approach–if Ryan Wilkins were caught, say, dropping his pants in front of a police officer while sipping from a Jagermeister and OxyContin Slurpee, we’d probably take a similar course of action.
But let’s get a few things straight…
The gloves didn’t work for Austin Kearns. He’ll head under the knife to remove bone spurs, scar tissue, and close the wound on his right thumb. Kearns was unable to bat without significant pain, leading to the decision for surgery. Kearns will miss four weeks, but according to Dr. Tim Kremchek, won’t have much of a rehab. In fact, Kearns could be hitting as soon as the wound heals. August 1st is a reasonable goal. The Reds will get Sean Casey back this weekend after an MRI indicated only a moderate strain in his calf. Already out of the boot, Casey expects to play in this weekend’s series. Ken Griffey Jr. was held out of Tuesday’s game with cramps, but it’s not considered serious at all.
Instead of a simulated game Wednesday, Kerry Wood will be heading to the minors. The Cubs think a rehab start would help him more, given his current status. A decision on that location will be made Wednesday and the start will happen Thursday or Friday. Assuming that start goes well, Wood will return and slot back in the rotation around July 5th. If so, that will be the first time in 2004 that the Cubs will have their intended rotation together, something almost as good as a trade. Granted, a trade for someone like Eddie Guardado or Ugueth Urbina would help as well…
I think The Blizzard Theory is ready for its closeup.
The Blizzard Theory states that any ballpark with an ad for Dairy Queen
somewhere on the premises is a great place to spend an evening. The theory
gained steam on Saturday, when I caught a Cape Cod League game at Guv Fuller
Field in Falmouth, Mass.
The league, perhaps best known as the source material for the cinematic epic
Summer Catch, is
a showcase circuit for college players, one which provides an opportunity for
scouts to watch potential draftees play games using wood bats. The league has
a long and distinguished list of alumni, and even as more summer leagues
geared towards collegians proliferate, it retains its place as the #1 summer
Today, I’m wrapping up my series on level-by-level minor league All-Stars. I’ve already put together my Low-A Team, High-A Team and Double-A Team. This time, in what’s bound to come as a surprise, I’m going to look at my Triple-A All-Stars.
Putting together a Triple-A team is a bit of a challenge given the criteria I’ve set. I’m looking for a blend of performance and genuine prospect status. Triple-A, as you probably know, is fertile ground for retreads and Quadruple-A types, which provides a fairly low level-wide signal-to-noise ratio in terms of prospects. So, for all their merits, you’ll see no Lou Colliers, Joe Vitiellos or Mike Colangelos here. What you will see are the best prospects who have spent most of the season at Triple-A and haven’t exhausted their prospect status in recent seasons. Before the money runs out…
The Angels’ pitching staff returns to health. The David DeJesus era begins for the Royals. The Phillies have an epic battle going for the role of fifth starter. The Mariners hit a home run with the Freddy Garcia deal. These and other happenings in today’s Transaction Analysis.
Inherent in the desire to develop better baseball statistics–and as a result, improve baseball analysis–is the belief that this information is not only available but also not being used by the men and women who run baseball. As Moneyball and the resulting reaction has showed, some General Managers seem to be using the same methods for performance evaluation that were used 20 or 40 years ago. It therefore stands to reason that GMs are paying players not for actual performance, but rather for perceived performance as viewed through the rusty and decrepit glasses of decades-old beliefs about the statistics of the game. For this study we wanted to find out if General Managers were, in fact, paying players along the lines of their objective “value” (as defined by VORP), or if there were something else in play.
Best Matchup (Best combined record with both teams being over .500): Boston @ New York Yankees
We seem to have reached a point in baseball history where it is–what is the word?–understood that the Yankees somehow deserve to get the best available player on the trading block. When they don’t, their owner and fans appear shocked. With Freddy Garcia gone to Chicago and Carlos Beltran now in Houston, it will be interesting to see how firm Arizona’s resolve to keep Randy Johnson will be. The Newark Star-Ledger has also been kicking up some Tom Glavine-to-the-Yankees talk. It stands to reason. Glavine has been the best pitcher in baseball so far in 2004 (39.3 VORP, besting runners-up Mark Mulder and Carl Pavano), so it only makes sense that he should be on the Yankees. Why? Because it’s the Yankees’ world and we’re just the extras sent over by Central Casting to fill in their background.
I’ve been getting a lot of e-mail lately that runs like this:
I know you like Edgar Martinez, but don’t you think he should retire? He can’t run, he can’t hit. He should have some pride.
It’s true, I’m emotionally attached. But I know that, so I can recognize it, take a deep breath, and be rational about it.
And my answer is: “I have no business telling Edgar, or any player, to retire.”
I’m working on a piece that will run next week about unorthodox deliveries. Steven Goldman and I spent some time comparing the motions of Walter Johnson and Randy Johnson. I’ve also had my head buried in my Japanese “Nature of Pitching” book. Sure, I can’t read it, but the diagrams are great. Still, the best part has been going on MLB.tv and watching the archived games. I can watch the toe-tap of Tim Hudson, the pattycake in Akinori Otsuka’s windup, and the flaw in Roger Clemens delivery. For all the complaining I do about MLB, MLB.tv is about the coolest thing ever for a baseball fan. The archive and condensed games trump watching it on the big screen for me. If anyone has an interesting delivery in his or her memory banks, drop me a line. So, powered by that, let’s get right into the injuries…
The Carlos Beltran trade, from all sides. Art Rhodes, on keeping criticism in the clubhouse. Bill Bavasi, on taking Kenny Williams to the cleaner. The Controversial Willie Banks, pitchers old and new on going deep into the game, and Carlos Pena digging the walkoff. All this and more in this week’s edition of The Week In Quotes.
I’ll often talk here about “cascades”–the situation where one part of the body being injured or out of whack causes another injury–but it’s interesting to see the same concept apply to a team. Since the term comes from network science, it’s not surprising that it shows up in any networked system–a body, a team, even a league.
Tim Hudson went to the DL as a precaution after he once again felt an oblique strain affecting his motion. Little did the pitching-rich A’s know that Rich Harden would have a recurrence of his non-throwing shoulder’s laxity disorder. Had Harden gone on the DL, they would have been down two starters, but even then, the A’s were ready with Kirk Saarloos and John Rheinecker. This still leaves Justin Duschscherer in the bullpen and Joe Blanton on the verge. That’s just sick depth (and part of the reason that Billy Beane will be dangerous this trading season.) My favorite part of the episode is Larry Davis’ “everybody will make their next start” quote. It’s semantics like that which makes my job so “interesting.” Hudson will be out the minimum, while Rich Harden’s absence will depend on his pain tolerance. Remember his mechanics got out of whack early in the season when his gloveside drooped.