CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Get to Know: Relief Pi... (03/05)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/27)
No Next Column
Next Article >>
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: A.J. Gr... (03/05)

March 5, 2014

Fantasy Three-Year Projections

Relief Pitchers

by Craig Goldstein


For the previous installments in this series, click the links below:

There’s something that needs to be said about three-year RP rankings: They shouldn’t be done. You’re not going to like this list, and I certainly didn’t like doing it. Relievers are far too fungible to project out three years when it comes to saves, which is the all-consuming overlord of reliever production in the majority of fantasy leagues. Speculating for saves has its time and its place, but that place is on the waiver wire and that time is no more than five seconds of your day, in this humble author’s opinion.

For every success story (Kenley Jansen) there is, well… Kenley Jansen. This is the first season he’s entering the year as a closer, despite being dominant for the last three. Think about Tyler Clippard, who “should” have ascended to the role before Rafael Soriano was signed. Then there’s Rex Brothers, who is 2014’s reliever du jour. Everyone and their mother loves Brothers, but the problem is he doesn’t have the closer gig, is left-handed, and the Rockies signed LaTroy Hawkins to split duties at the very least. And y’know what? Hawkins isn’t actually that bad.

This is a long way of saying that if you’re speculating on saves, bet on skills. At least when that pitcher doesn’t get saves, he’ll still be half-decent and you didn’t just waste your FAAB money on Chia-Jen Lo just to see Josh Fields (equally cruddy) get the job instead. Don’t put too much stock into these rankings, because they’re mostly favoring players who have jobs now or have elite skills that could propel them to top-seven status if they do get the job (Cody Allen).

This is making the assumption that Robertson has no issues with the full-time closer role, and if he does, he should join the elite group above. All six should be near the stop of the league in strikeouts, WHIP, and saves.

All of these closers are 32 or under and have at least semi-firm holds on their jobs, to go with reasonable upside. The shakiest in terms of job security is Frieri, but he has the upside to warrant this placement. The rest are solidly in their roles and have been productive in the past. There’s no reason for their teams to replace them, except quite possibly to cash in a trade chip (Glen Perkins).

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

13 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Get to Know: Relief Pi... (03/05)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/27)
No Next Column
Next Article >>
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: A.J. Gr... (03/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: AFL Recap for Games of ...
Hot Stove Scouting Report: Max Scherzer
Hot Stove Scouting Report: Nelson Cruz
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Sing, Sing, Sing, for the...
Premium Article Painting the Black: That Time We All Hated t...
Premium Article Raising Aces: Bum Deal
Playoff Prospectus: The Giants Win The World...

MORE FROM MARCH 5, 2014
Premium Article Top Tools: Best Slider/Changeup/Command
The Lineup Card: 11 of Our Least-Favorite Of...
Pebble Hunting: The Best GIFs of the 2014 Ba...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Orioles Sign Flimsy Jo...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Spring Training Games o...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: A.J. Griffin Cuts His Cutter
Fantasy Article Get to Know: Relief Pitcher Prospects

MORE BY CRAIG GOLDSTEIN
2014-03-12 - Fantasy Article Five to Watch: American League Starting Pitc...
2014-03-10 - Fantasy Article Five to Watch: National League Pitchers With...
2014-03-07 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 9: You Sou...
2014-03-05 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Relief Pitch...
2014-03-01 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 8: Maybe H...
2014-02-26 - Fantasy Article Get to Know: Starting Pitcher Prospects
2014-02-23 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 7: Hard D
More...

MORE FANTASY THREE-YEAR PROJECTIONS
2014-03-05 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Relief Pitch...
2014-02-27 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pit...
2014-02-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders
2014-02-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Third Baseme...
More...